Jobs Come Crumbling Down! October Jobs Added Only 150k, 50% Drop From September (Unproductive Government Jobs Increased By 51k While Productive Construction Jobs Grew By Only 23k) Bidenomics Hurts So Good??

Yes, the jobs come crumbling down!

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, below the average monthly gain of 258,000 over the prior 12 months. This represents a drop of more than 50% from the original Sept print, and the second lowest since 2022!

In October, job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment in manufacturing declined due to strike activity. (See table B-1.) Health care added 58,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 53,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+32,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000). Employment in government increased by 51,000 in October and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Monthly job growth in government had averaged 50,000 in the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in local government (+38,000).

In October, construction employment continued to trend up (+23,000).

So, unproductive government jobs increased by 51k while productive construction employment grew by only 23k.

Average weeky; earnings growth YoY slowed to 3.2%. Too bad core inflation last printed at 4.13% YoY in September.

But the household survey shows employment collapsed by 348K, the biggest drop since the Covid shutdown.

As usual, historical data was revised massively lower, with the jobs change for August revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported. In total, 8 of the past 8 months have been revised sharply lower in what only idiots can not see is clearly mandated political propaganda designed to make the economy look stronger at first glance then quietly revise the growth away.

Bidenomics hurts so good? At least that is what Biden and KJP will say.

Soft Jobs Report Weakens Impetus for Fed Rate Hike in December. Translation? Weak jobs report = no more Fed rate hikes = falling interest and mortgage rates.

10-year US Treasury yield now down a whopping 40 basis points in the last three trading sessions.

And its beginnig to look a lot like a BAD Christmas!

How do you recession? B-I-D-E-N-O-M-I-C-S.

Biden’s Fiscal Folly! Massive Federal Spending Is NOT Sound Fiscal Policy, Another $1.6 TRILLION In Debt (Yields Show Washington’s Interest-Rate Payments Will Eclipse Australia’s GDP)

Appartently, Joe Biden and fellow big spenders in Washington DC, Mordor on The Potomac, don’t care about fiscal discipline. With seemingly endless spending of wars (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the invasion at our southern border, and inane “green” spending,

Janet Yellen and the US Treasury will be auctioning off $776 billion of debt in the final quarter of calendar 2023, a bit below market expectations. Treasury said it will auction another $816 billion in the first quarter of 2024. So, that is yet another $1.6 TRILLION in debt.

The rapid rise in US yields to ~5% points to the government’s annual interest-rate bill rising to 4.5-5% of debt outstanding in the next six months. That’s in the region of $1.7 trillion – or the GDP of Australia – each year.

Such large payments are negative for the economy. Interest is likely to be paid for using higher-velocity money (e.g. taxes) and received by holders less likely to spend the proceeds in the broad economy, and instead re-invest it. Independent monetary policy becomes increasingly difficult when the equivalent of 6% of US GDP is being diverted towards interest payments each year.

It’s not only the size of Treasury borrowing that’s a problem, but it’s maturity composition.

Issuance has latterly been skewed to bills, which has ameliorated the impact on liquidity as money market funds have been able to intermediate through the reverse repo (RRP) facility at the Fed. But as issuance skews back towards longer-term debt (watch for increases in auction sizes in 2y, 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y, 20y and 30y debt for insight on this), that will have an increasingly negative impact on liquidity, especially if the Treasury maintains its large cash balance at the Fed (as it said on Monday it expected to do).

The Fed has little (or no) say over any of this.

Monetary policy will become increasingly overwhelmed in such an environment, which is why today’s Fed meeting, where it is expected to keep rates on hold, is a bit of an afterthought.

Also of more consequence currently is Japan.

The BOJ’s decision to maintain negative yields and keep its yield curve control policy largely intact ladles on yet more underlying risks to the global macro environment.

Allegedly, The Fed isn’t interested in buying additional US debt, and likely China and Japan won’t be buying our debt either. But maybe the REAL Federal government, Blackrock and their friends will buy the debt!

Thunderstruck! ADP Report Shows 113,000 Jobs Added In October, But Wage Growth Slowing Rapidly

The economy is thunderstruck under Bidenomics.

ADP reported today that the US economy added 113,000 jobs in October.

Analysts’ expectations were for a rise to +150k job additions in October, but for the 3rd straight month, ADP disappointed with a +113k print (+150k exp).

But, October saw the 13th straight month of declines in wage growth – to the weakest growth levels since Q3 2021. Job stayers saw a 5.9 percent year-over-year pay increase in September, marking the 12th straight month of slowing growth. Pay gains also shrank for job changers, to 9 percent, down from 9.7 percent in August.

How about the ISM report? Yikes!

The US is thunderstruck under Bidenomics.

Back In Time! MBA Mortgage Purchase Demand (Applications) Decline To Lowest Level Since 1995 (Down -22% Since Last Year)

We are back in time … at least for the mortgage market. Thanks to Bidenomics!!!!

Mortgage applications decreased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 27, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Back to 1995 levels.

At least mortgage refinancing applications are back to only 2001 levels.

Two-year yields have risen 5%.

At least it looks like Powell will pause rate hikes … for the moment.

I want a new drug, other than Biden’s top-down, big-donor friendly Soviet-style command economy. How about a free market without Fed interest rate manipulation??

Guns Of August? Home Prices Rise Again In August, +2.57% YoY (Illegal Immingrant Destinations Like Chicago, New York And Detroit Are Up The Most)

Bidenomics is best represented by the novel “The Guns of August” since American’s middle class is getting blasted by Biden’s economic policies and The Fed’s rate rate hikes. Find out where Texas Governor Abbot is bussing illegal immigrants and buy in the market!!

Home prices rose for the 5th straight month in August (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 1.01% MoM (better than the 0.8% rise expected).

Source: Bloomberg

The ongoing MoM rises pushed the YoY gain in home prices at America’s 20 largest cities up 2.16%, the most since January 2023. The National Home Price index rose even faster at 2.57% YoY.

Illegal immigration destinations Chicago, New York, and Detroit all saw major home price rises (+5.0%, +4.9%, and +4.8% YoY respectively). Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Francisco remain lower YoY (-4.9%, -3.9%, -2.5% respectively).

But, judging by the resumption of the rise of mortgage rates since the Case-Shiller data was created, we would expect prices to also resume their decline…

Source: Bloomberg

Inventory is going nowhere, buyers and sellers are stuck (affordability for the former and the mortgage cost gap for the latter), and The Fed isn’t cutting rates any time soon. Not pretty…

Shapes Of Things Under Bidenomics! Russell 2000 Hit Lowest Level Since Nov 2020 As Bidenomics Bites Hard (Mortgage Rates UP 181% Under Biden, Home Prices UP 32.3%)

Shapes of things under Bidenomics! More like Over, Under, Sideways Down.

The benchmark small cap index, the Russell 2000, has hit the lowest levels since November 2020, when the world was still without a vaccine and shut down from Covid. And before Biden’s/Congress wild spending spree and debt volume explosion creating massive inflation causing The Fed to hike rates.

Speaking of over, under, sideways, down under Bidenomics, mortgage rates are up 181% and home prices are up 32.3% under Biden.

Biden: “WTF? He doesn’t smell like a little girl!”

Simply Unaffordable! Income Needed To Buy A Home Is $111k While Median Household Income Is Only $78k, Credit Card Delinquencies Highest Since 1991, REITs Down > -10% YTD (Bitcoin, Gold UP YTD!)

Bidenomics is a windfall for the donor class (high rate of return on campaign contributions) while the middle class gets beaten to a pulp. Waiting for Biden to lean over and creepily whisper “It’s working!” Even though it is clearly not working, at least for the middle class.

Evidence that Bidenomics is not working and destructive? Try the surging income needed to buy a house under Biden. Home prices are rising faster than median household income. As in $111,000 income needed to buy a house, while median household income is only $78,000. So, housing is simply unaffordable under Bidenomics. The Biden era is outlined in pink.

Mortgage purchase applications have collapsed to 1994 levels.

Meanwhile, stressed households are seeing credit card delinquencies at the highest level since 1991.

And thanks to Uncle Spam (given how Uncle Sam is destroying the middle class it is now Uncle Spam), 2023 interest payments are the same as the total debt from 1980! Spam, which the Federal government has devolved into, is very high in fat, calories and sodium and low in important nutrients, such as protein, vitamins and minerals.

2022 was a bad year for investments under Bidenomics. 2023 year to date is showing huge gains for Bitcoin, the NASDAQ and gold. Bringing up the rear are long duration Treasuries and REITs (real estate investment trusts), both earning negative returns thus far of less than -10%.

When will we see rats fleeing the sinking SS Bidenomics as it sinks? JPMorgan Chase stock slips after bank says CEO Jamie Dimon is selling 1 million shares.

Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jay Powell have a bad case of screwing you (Doctor, Doctor).

Addicted To Gov? US Added $600 Billion In Debt In One Month And $10.47 TRILLION Since Covid Outbreak, Credit Card APR Now 28.93% As Credit Card Debt Exceeds $1 TRILLION, Family Healthcare Costs Surge 7% To $24,000, Q3 Real GDP Rises 4.9%

Bidenomics new theme song is “Addicted To Gov.” Bidenomics needs lots of Federal spending and borrowing to survive. But all this spending and borrowing is causing rapid price increases and other distortions.

The US Federal government just added $600 billion in debt in ONE MONTH. And The Fed’s have borrowed $10.47 TRILLION since Covid in Q1 2020.

Meanwhile, retail credit card APR average just hit 28.93%! While credit card debt outstandnig just exceeded $1 trillion.

On the healthcare front, a family’s health insurance costs nearly $24,000 this year after the biggest increase in more than a decade.

.On the GDP front, Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

Here is the breakdown.

But inflation is reaacelerating, harming the middle class.

Real weekly earnings growth is falling again, down to 0.8% YoY.

And the US Dollar purchasing power keeps on falling. All together now!

Gavin Gruesom has a great smile like Joe Biden. Perhaps that is all you need to be a Democrat. President. Like Obama.

Mortgage Purchase Demand (Applications) Fell 2% Since Last Week And 22% Since Last Year As Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level Since 2000 (Almost 8%)

The US is teetering on World War III with tensions soaring in the Middle East, Ukraine, and southeast Asia. And Biden wanders off to Rehobeth Beach Delaware to relax … while over 200 Americans are still held hostage by terrorist group Hamas. The bad news? Biden is back in Washington DC trying to make the border crisis even worse by demanding funding for “border security” in the form of transporting illegal immigrants to US cities. Is The Squad running The White House??

But on the housing/mortgage front, we have another week of declining mortgage demand/applications as mortgage rate hit almost 8%.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 20, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates followed Treasuries higher, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumping 20 basis points to 7.9 percent – the highest since 2000. Rates have now risen seven consecutive weeks at a cumulative amount of 69 basis points.

Hey Joe, I’ll bet those 200+ US hostages held by Hamas aren’t enjoying ice cream cones.

Back In Red! C&I Loan Lending Standards Tightening To Recession Era Levels (Bank Credit Growth Remains Negative For Twelve Straight Week)

Back in red? As US fiscal policy deteriorates further thanks to endless Federal spending (not to mention seemingly endless wars under Biden and Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama), we are seeing pain in the bank lending business.

Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan lending standards is tightening (blue line) to levels typically seen in recessions. Even though Barclays HY-10Y spreads remains low.

Bank credit growth remains negative for the twelve straight week.

Billions Biden’s spending spree has led to the budget gap has doubled in the last year.

CDS is now at 55.24, highest after the Covid shock.

Under Biden/Yellen’s economic model, the appropriate themesong is “Hell’s Bells.”