US average hourly earnings continued at 4.4% year-over-year (YoY). However, the last core inflation reading was 4.8% YoY, so real wages continue to decline.
Rent CPI for June was 7.8% YoY.
Here is the rest of the story.
In keeping in with Biden admin’s penchant of constantly fabricating data, both May and June numbers were revised sharply lower of course:
May revised down by 25,000, from +306,000 to +281,000
June was revised down by 24,000, from +209,000 to +185,000.
To show just how ridiculous the data manipulation is, consider this chart – every monthly payrolls report in 2023 has been revised lower.
And on the disappointing jobs report and massive revisions of past data (the REAL inflation plaguing the nation is The Federal goverment lying about data), the US Treasury 2 year yield dropped like Biden on a flight of stairs.
Here are the faces of Washington DC. Lies, corruption, government for sale to highest bidder, cynacism, oppression, fear mongering, etc. This is Biden’s legacy.
First, the deficit. It’s close to historical wides, bigger than it’s ever been outside of a recession, and almost as wide as it was in the depths of the GFC. It’s the largest in the world in GDP terms, and it is currently heading in the wrong direction. This heaps more pressure on the government debt-to-GDP level, already uncomfortably high at 112%.
Second, tax revenues. These have seen almost their largest annual fall ever, in an economy that’s supposed to be growing at 2.4%.
And then there’s rising interest-rate costs. The total interest expense as a percentage of tax revenue is expected to rise sharply in the next year or two, and make new highs by the end of the decade. However, these CBO forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt as they are based on a 10-year yield of only 3.8% (the ten-year average has been higher than that in every decade bar the 2010s and 2020s).
My former student at University of Chicago’s MBA program, Kevin Smith of Crescat Capital, has this charming chart of state and local income tax receipts collapsing.
There is a view the Treasury is already implementing YCC, based on the fact it has been skewing its issuance towards bills and away from coupons. But issuing more bills is simply the easiest and fastest way for the Treasury to replenish its account at the Fed (the TGA). It was run down to almost zero in the lead-up to the debt-ceiling limit, and has now risen to over $500 billion.
This level of bill issuance is not unusual. The Treasury has an implicit target of about 20% for the amount of bills outstanding as a percentage of total debt. As we can see from the chart below, bills have often been more than 20% of debt outstanding over the last 30 years. Moreover, the Treasury announced this week it was raising its coupon-issuance amounts.
According to the stealth YCC thesis, less longer-dated Treasury issuance implicitly caps longer-term yields, but this has not historically been the case. As the chart above shows, the yield curve typically steepens – not flattens – when there is greater bill issuance – the opposite of what is desired by YCC.
We see the same relationship if we look the duration of US government debt outstanding. When the average duration falls – as it would if issuance is skewed toward bills – the yield curve tends to steepen. The current average duration held by the public is consistent with a steeper, not a flatter, yield curve.
This sounds counter-intuitive. If issuance drives yields, then more issuance at the front-end of the curve versus the longer end – equating to a fall in duration – implies the yield curve should flatten.
But the fact the relationship is the other way implies it’s likely that demand is the more dominant driver of yields in the medium term. There is ready-made demand for bills, from MMFs, etc, so when supply increases, demand rises to meet it, suppressing the yield-curve impact.
It’s thus hard to argue the Treasury is engaging in yield curve control. But that does not detract from the rising possibility it will need to be implemented in some shape or form eventually.
Banks and the Fed are reducing their Treasury holdings, while foreigners now collectively own about $5 trillion less USTs – about 10% – than they did in 2021. At the same time the “Treasury put” means large fiscal deficits are likely to become a feature, not a bug. That means inflation is likely to become embedded.
Fiscal profligacy and elevated price growth are a combustible mix and a road to prohibitively high yields via rising term premium. Yield capping thus starts to look like the endgame.
How it’s done is another matter, whether it’s the Fed co-opted to cap yields as it was in WWII, Treasury buybacks, or financial repression, whereby domestic institutions are forced to hold more government debt. Whatever way, at some point yield curve control in the US is becoming increasingly likely – by stealth or otherwise.
But never fear! Janet “Too Low For Too Long Creating Asset Bubbles” Yellen is still US Treasury Secretary.
Bidenomics is where the Attorney General Garland gives Hunter Biden blanket amnesty and arrests Biden’s Presidential opponent. Welcome to the United Venezuelan States of America!e
But while Fitch cited “the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers” as reasons for the downgrade, the Biden administration is of course blaming Donald Trump and his supporters due to one portion of Fitch’s explanation: “a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years,” and that “repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management.”
Then on Wednesday, Fitch’s Richard Francis told Reuters that the downgrade was ‘due to fiscal concerns and a deterioration in U.S governance as well as polarization which was reflected in part by the Jan. 6 insurrection.’
“It was something that we highlighted because it just is a reflection of the deterioration in governance, it’s one of many,” he said, adding “You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. Clearly, if you look at polarization with both parties … the Democrats have gone further left and Republicans further right, so the middle is kind of falling apart basically.”
And so of course, the Biden administration is blaming Trump.
“This Trump downgrade is a direct result of an extreme MAGA Republican agenda defined by chaos, callousness, and recklessness that Americans continue to reject,” said Biden re-election campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz. “Donald Trump oversaw the loss of millions of American jobs, and ballooned the deficit with the disastrous tax cuts for the wealthy and big corporations.”
Ah, so now it’s the Trump downgrade™
Meanwhile, White House spox Karine Jean-Pierre also blamed Trump on Tuesday, saying that the White House “strongly” disagrees with the decision, adding “it’s clear that extremism by Republican officials — from cheerleading default, to undermining governance and democracy, to seeking to extend deficit-busting tax giveaways for the wealthy and corporations — is a continued threat to our economy.”
Former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called the decision “bizarre and inept,” while former Obama economic advisor Jason Furman called the move “completely absurd.”
On Wednesday, CNBC wheeled out Jared Bernstein, chair of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers and former Obama official, who similarly blamed Trump.
“I think again the timing issue is is Jermaine here. The deficit went up every year under President Trump. The debt to GDP ratio rocketed under President trump. It has stabilized admittedly at a higher level under this president but we’re doing all we can to try to ameliorate those tensions,” he said.
Bernstein reflected on the “cognitive dissonance” he felt at the downgrade amid the success of ‘Bidenomics’ commenting that “creditworthiness deteriorated significantly under President Trump for good reasons… and under President Biden, it started to track back up…”
Except that’s the exact opposite of what happened. According to the 100% non-partisan “market”, the creditworthiness of US Treasury debt improved almost constantly under President Trump and worsened dramatically almost immediately upon President Biden’s inauguration:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the downgrade was “arbitrary and based on outdated data,” adding “Today, the unemployment rate is near historic lows, inflation has come down significantly since last summer, and last week’s GDP report shows that the U.S. economy continues to grow.”
CNN also blamed Trump, penning the headline: Fitch downgrades US debt on debt ceiling drama and Jan. 6 insurrection.”
The stupidity on CNN and Jared Bernstein are appalling. True, the media and Biden Administration are terrified of losing the 2024 Presidential election, but outright lies and misrepresenation are wrong no matter what.
But the claims that the US was downgraded because Trump’s economy lost miilions of jobs is ridiculous.
Actually, the US economy added 12.53 million jobs after April 2020 (Trump) while Bidenomics created took 2 1/2 years to add 12.56 million jobs. So, Biden took over twice as long to create jobs after Covid than it did under Trump. Simply opening the economy and schools produced that magical claim by Biden. And the National Teacher’s Union and Randi Weingarten worked with Fauci to orchestrate shutting down schools. Blaming Trump for local governments shutting down the economy is pure bunk.
Bidenomics and massive Federal spending is the cause for the downgrade. Not Trump.
Inflation under Biden has been very painful for the US middle class and low wage workers. That inflation has resulted to surging mortgage rates thanks to The Fed’s counterattack.
The result? Mortgage rates are up 134% under Bidenomics, while mortgage purchase demand is down -45% since Biden was selected. And mortgage refinancing demand is down a staggering -90%!
Mortgage applications decreased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 28, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
US interest expenses have surged by about 50% in the past year, to nearly $1 trillion on an annualized basis.
Look at the share of net worth by the top 1% as Treasury borrows more money.
Oddly, Biden is not talking about about putting US government policies up for sale to the highest bidders. But don’t worry. Biden is the King of Corruption in the District of Corruption (Washington DC).
President Jimmy Carter is usually the bar for terrible Presidents. Under Carter, the US experienced economic stagnation and soaring inflation. At least it led to the election of Ronald Regan!
So, Biden’s much mentioned Bidenomics have produced REAL MEDIAN WEEKLY EARNINGS FOR MEN that is currently below 1979 levels under Jimmy Carter.
Even worse for Bidenomics, REAL MEDIAN WEEKLY EARNINGS GROWTH FOR MEN was -4.45% In April 2023, while the last reading prior to Covid under Trump was 6.674% YoY in February 2020. So, Bidenomics isn’t even back to Trump levels for men.
I like this chart which I call “Yellenomics” because it illustrates The Fed’s Folly of money printing and its impact on real earnings. After the Trump wage growth boom, real median weekly earnings for men has been steadily declining.
Women, on the other hand, did show a gain since Carter, but still lower than the last month before Covid struck. Women’s real median weekly earnings growth YoY since Q2 2021 are down -5%. So, Bidenomics has been less sucky for women than men.
Reminds me of The Yardbird’s classic “I’m A Man.” Worse off under Biden than under Jimmy Carter. Although The Yardbird’s “Over Under Sideways DOWN” is more emblematic of Bidenomics.
Bidenomics should be renamed Corruptionomics given Biden’s habit of selling government influence to anyone willing to waive a few million.
Bidenomics, aka the Federal government takeover of the US economy with Soviet-style economic central planning, is highly dependent on loose Federal Reserve monetary policy (Janet Yellen and Powell’s wild overreaction to the massively inappropriate Covid shutdowns),
So, how is Bidenomics working out? On the bank lending front, commercial and industrial (C&I) lending growth is crashing along with bank credit growth YoY.
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains deeply inverted at -91.031 basis points and M2 Money growth has crashed. The 30 year mortgage rate is hovering around 7.27%.
The Biden Administration is gushing about Q2’s Real GDP report of 2.4% QoQ. Wow, after trillions of dollars of stimulus spending and The Fed going wild with monetary stimulus, all we got was 2.4% growth??
New home sales in June fell -2.5% from May to June to 697k units sold. But on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, new home sales are up 23.8%. Thanks largely to The Federal Reserve slow walking the shrinking of their massive balance sheet.
Too much monetary stimulus and The Fed’s failure to remove the Covid stimulus is now hitting new home sales.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 21, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index 1.5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.4 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Since April 2021, purchase mortgage demand is down -49%, refi mortgage demand is down -87% as mortgage rates are up 115%.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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