And much of the debt burden falls on the middle class.
Serious auto delinquencies are on the rise.
And lowest earners saw the biggest increase in credit card delinquenices.
And who voters prefer as of today? Trump on interest rates and personal debt.
In addition to the absurd idea of removing title searches for government-guaranteed mortgages (now rely on attorney opinions), the Biden Administration is considering a homebuyer tax credit … that likely won’t help much.
And if you want to see which lenders have the largest concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans, BankOZK takes the cake as the most concentrated lender.
The more the Biden Administration tries to “help” make housing more affordable, paradoxically makes housing even MORE unaffordable.
Somehow, Biden left this factoid out of his State of The Union (SOTU) address. In February, immigrants added 1,277 million jobs while native Americans lost -420,000 jobs according to the BLS. Or maybe Biden can change his campaign motto to “Make America Great Again … For Immigrants, NOT Natives.”
In February, the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years…
It is clear that the labor market is softening, but Biden/Mayorkas will continue to let millions of illegal immigrants pour across the border making the labor market even softer than before. But the top 1% are making out like bandits from the illegal immigration. Bandits benefitting bandits.
Housing is simply unaffordable for millions of Americans. Home prices are up 33% under Biden’s Reign of Error, while mortgage rates are up 146% under Vacation Joe. Somehow I doubt if Biden will brag about home prices and mortgage rate in his State of the Union address.
On the mortgage side, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 8 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Paul Krugman and others are cheering the defeat of inflation (odd since it is on the rise again). But how does our Federal government “grow” the economy and inflation? Borrow and spend, baby!
I still want to hear Biden (or any other elected official, Democrat or Republican) to explain to me how the US is going to honor its unfunded liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, etc) which is $664,000 PER CITIZEN. Again, this figure does not included the 8-11 million illegal immigrants who have stormed our borders under Biden. Hey, how about an entry fee for each immigrant of $664,000?
“Billions” Biden loves to spend money along with members of Congress and the Administrative State.
Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 7.04 percent from 7.06 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Confidence! It’s what consumers DON’T have under Bidenomics.
For the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January’s was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022. And Conference Board Consumer Confidence was DOWN to -3.90 in January, the worst since Feb 2022.
It really isn’t surprising the consumer confidence stinks. Food prices (CPI) are UP 21% under Vacation Joe Biden. Diesel fuel prices are UP 90% under Listless Joe.
Well, Biden’s appearance on (unfunny) Seth Myer’s Late Night Show certainly didn’t make me feel more confident about America’s future.
The Fed’s love potion #9: Printing endless supplies of money. But it still isn’t creating a large enough growth in new homes. The Fed’s money printing has helped drive housing prices up 32.7% under Biden, making housing unaffordable for millions of households.
After December’s 8.0% surprise jump was revised down to +7.2% MoM, January sales rose just 1.5% MoM (half the 3.0% expected). In fact all three of the last months’ data was revised lower…
The downward revision and disappointment reduced the YoY sales growth to just 1.8%…
The total new home sales SAAR rose from a downwardly revised 651k to 661k in January (well below the 684k expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
The median sales price of a home decreased to $420,700 in January from a year ago, marking the fifth-straight decline (up marginally from the $413,000 in December which was two year low).
Interestingly, the average price (NSA) soared from $493.4k to $534.3k)… which signals more higher-priced homes selling…
Source: Bloomberg
Mortgage rates are back on the rise, not exactly a good sign for new home sales as homebuilders margins collapse…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, new-home supply increased to 456,000 from the prior month, the most in over a year.
Source: Bloomberg
Is reality about to set in for the US housing market? Or will Powell step in (with a banking crisis excuse) to save all that ‘wealth’?
…
Source: Bloomberg
The total new home sales SAAR rose from a downwardly revised 651k to 661k in January (well below the 684k expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
The median sales price of a home decreased to $420,700 in January from a year ago, marking the fifth-straight decline (up marginally from the $413,000 in December which was two year low).
Interestingly, the average price (NSA) soared from $493.4k to $534.3k)… which signals more higher-priced homes selling…
Source: Bloomberg
Mortgage rates are back on the rise, not exactly a good sign for new home sales as homebuilders margins collapse…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, new-home supply increased to 456,000 from the prior month, the most in over a year.
Source: Bloomberg
Is reality about to set in for the US housing market? Or will Powell step in (with a banking crisis excuse) to save all that ‘wealth’?
Of course, mortgage rates rising 149% under Biden might have something to do with it.
Although the Attom data is from Q3 2023, not much has changed. Under Biden (and his HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, Fed Chair Jay Powell, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen), I did manage to find TWO AFFORDABLE areas to live: Shreveport Louisiana and Midland/Odessa Texas. The housing market remains unaffordable for millions of Americans.
I am not surprised given that the Case-Shiller National home price index has risen by 32.7% under Biden while mortgage rates are up … 149%.
Robin Hood is a legendary heroic outlaw originally depicted in English folklore and subsequently featured in literature, theatre, and cinema. Traditionally depicted dressed in Lincoln green, he is said to have stolen from the rich to give to the poor. Politicians have created the new “Forgotten Man” by Amity Shlaes.
However, politicians like Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell are “reverse Robin Hoods” dressed in business suits (although Jamie Raskin D-MD is often seen wearing a bandana and John Fetterman D-PA is often seen in a hoodie and shorts). They instead enact policies that steal from the middle class and give to themselves and the donor class. How do you think that politicians like the Bidens, Obama, Clintons and AOC go in broke and emerge as multi-millionaires?
Part of the problem with the reverse Robin Hood model is the Federal Reserve itself. They helped punish the 99% with inflation due to excessive money printing. The share of total net worth held by the top 1% has exploded since The Fed’s rate cuts following the 2001 recession. The Fed has never lowered rates since to levels we saw prior to the 2001 recession, although The Fed is getting close.
Then we have the green energy hysteria (which like pornography excites the brain and distorts logical thinking). Wealthy donors have received a massive windfall (along with China) from Biden/Congress’s green energy spending (scam). The middle class and low-wage workers are now playing higher utility bills (sacrificial lambs on the altar of global warming … or cooling) along with seeing gasoline and diesel prices far higher than before Biden was elected. Gasoline prices are up 46.25% under Biden and diesel prices are up 55.6%.
I like this chart of the distribution of household wealth by income group. The top 1% (the elite Pelosi class, are getting wealthier and wealthier. The 90-99% group are doing well, but not as well as the top 1%. The bottom 50% (who the Washington DC elite class seems to have forgotten about)
Here is a table of the same data.
Then we have the exploding mortgage rates under Biden. Rates are up over 155% under Old Grandad Joe Biden. Another shot through the heart of the middle class. And Washington DC is to blame.
Speaking of Washington DC millionaire elites, I want to share this picture with you. Hillary Clinton is NOT Robin Hood but an example of a REVERSE Robin Hood.
Director John Carpenter had two films, “Escape From New York” and the less popular “Escape From LA.” Carpenter’s vision of a dystopian future with Manhattan as a prison island, filled with criminals and Los Angeles as a just a weird, dystopian area filled with gangs and sleazebags. Apparently, Carpenter read George Orwell with a splash of Franz Kafka in writing these films which are sadly becoming a reality. With Biden’s immigration “policy” (let everyone in without checking who they are) is a blueprint for a new film “Escape From The USA!” I wonder if Kurt Russell is available to reprise his role as Snake Plisken?
Like John Carpenter foretold, both California and New York are leading the nation in outmigration. BAD crime, high taxes, insane politicians and droves of illegal immigrants are making living in those state very difficult. Throw in the NY AG Letisha James and Judge Engmoron’s Marxist show trials of Donald Trump for doing absolutely nothing wrong and many people are are plain fed up. Illinois under the “leadership” of Chicago Fats (Governor J.B. Pritzker) and horrendous Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson (who makes former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot almost look reasonable) is third in the nation for outmigration. Once again, high taxes, high crime, lots of illegal immigrants, and inane policies are causing people and businesses to flee. John Carpenter should do a film “Escape From Chicago.”
Where are people fleeing to? Florida leads followed by Texas, then the Carolinas, and Tennessee. Generally, these states have lower taxes, lower crime, and less intrusive politicians. E.g., no Gavin Newsom (CA), no Kathy Hochul (NY) and no J.B. Pritzker (IL).
Another reason that people are fleeing New York and California is cost of living. To be sure, Bidenomics (an insidious malinvestment plan, aka, donor-nomics) has made matters worse. Home prices (blue line) and rents (red line) has soared and are far higher than the grow in average earnings (green line). Los Angeles is wonderful if you are a celebrity like Steve Spielberg, Tom Hanks and The Office’s Jenna Fischer where you live in a mansion and are protected by the police force. But other parts of Los Angeles are filled with the homeless, illegal immigrants, rampant crime, and is simply unlivable.
Escape From New York is appropriate for today’s situation. An idiot Mayor and Governor, illegals crowding the streets and hotels, crime through the roof, illegals attacking police. And Joe Biden acting like The Duke of New York, A number One! I guess the closest person we have to Snake Plisken is Donald Trump.
On a related note, Georgia is still seeing positive net in-migration. But as the Fani Willis corruption scandals unfolds and their weak-kneed Governor Kemp does nothing, we have yet another film John Carpenter could make “Escape From Atlanta.” Or a computer game like “Call of Booty.”
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.