Existing Home Sales Prices Explode In February (Median Selling Price Rose 5.7% to $384,500 From Last Year, Highest For Any February Back To 1999)

February’s existing home sales are like a scoop of cottage cheese. Seemingly satisfying until you look more closely at the data (or get hungry 30 minutes later).

Existing home sales soared a stunning 9.5% MoM in February, smashing the expectation of a 1.3% decline and building on the 3.1% MoM in January. However, even with the big monthly jump, existing home sales remain down 3.3% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Total existing home sales SAAR surged to 4.38mm – a 12 month high…

Source: Bloomberg

Homeowners may be accepting that mortgage rates are settling into a new normal and can’t delay moving any longer, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said on a call with reporters.

“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” Yun said in a statement.

“Housing demand has been on a steady rise due to population and job growth, though the actual timing of purchases will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.”

With a 2-month lag, we can see why existing home sales may have risen, but with mortgage rates rising since then, we suspect the fun and games may come to an end again soon (even if the NAR economist thinks otherwise)…

The number of previously owned homes for sale climbed to about 1.07 million last month, and Yun said he expects that will continue to go up. At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 2.9 months, the lowest in about a year.

Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight market.

Even with greater inventory, strong demand put upward pressure on prices. The median selling price advanced 5.7% to $384,500 from a year ago, the highest for any February in data back to 1999.

Sales rose in three of four regions, led by a 16.4% surge in the West

First-time buyers made up 26% of purchases in February, matching the lowest on record.

Biden’s War On Gas Cars Will Cost Americans A Fortune, 5-year Cost To Own An Electric Vehicle Exceeds $92,000 (Too Expensive, Only 73% Of Chargers In Working Order)

Biden continues to try to force Americans to buy electric cars and support China’s EV and battery industries! And are EVs ever expensive!

The Environmental Protection Agency released what it calls the “strongest-ever pollution standards for cars,” which it claims will “expand consumer choice in clean vehicles.”

That’s a stretch: These new regulations, which are clearly beyond EPA’s defined powers, will limit overall vehicle choice and force Americans into expensive and unreliable electric vehicles.

The EPA expects plug-in electric vehicles to make up between 62% and 70% of the automotive market. But this unrealistic target ignores two key facts:

First, consumers are not lining up to purchase electric vehicles, which made up only 7.6% of 2023 vehicle sales despite heavy subsidies.

American drivers simply aren’t embracing EVs because they know these vehicles have shorter driving ranges and longer refueling times. Not to mention that they’re significantly more expensive.

The five-year cost to own an average electric vehicle is more than $92,000, according to the North American Auto Dealers Association. Compare that to a typical gas-powered vehicle, which over the same period costs $76,500.

Second, readily available charging infrastructure remains elusive for many EV users.

Many of the available chargers are level 2, which the magazine U.S. News notes “is fine if you have time to kill.”

Repair issues compound even the limited levels of charging, as only 73% of chargers in some major centers are in working order, according to Autoweek.

In the face of rapid decreases in the growth of electric vehicle sales, automakers are already scaling back EV production plans.

In December, Ford announced it was cutting planned production of its F-150 Lightning pickup in half due to “changing market demand.”

The Mackinac Center for Public Policy has warned automobile manufacturers for years that leaving consumers out of their long-term business plans was a recipe for failure.

Taxpayers not only pay with more expensive cars, they have to subsidize new production facilities.

In Michigan, lawmakers have already promised $200 million dollars of taxpayer money — and that’s just for one Ford battery plant in Marshall.

Notice that Biden has his right hand mysterioulsy over the cup holders where the transmission shifter would be on his gas-guzzling Corvette. When Biden drives a Nissan Leaf and sells his Corvette, I will almost believe Biden. No, he lies so much I can’t believe anything you see.

Too Much Debt (Coping With Bidenflation) And The Downside Of Federal Housing Policies (No Title Searches On Federally-insured Mortgages)

Households have too much debt, thanks to trying to cope with Bidenomics and Bidenflation.

And much of the debt burden falls on the middle class.

Serious auto delinquencies are on the rise.

And lowest earners saw the biggest increase in credit card delinquenices.

And who voters prefer as of today? Trump on interest rates and personal debt.

In addition to the absurd idea of removing title searches for government-guaranteed mortgages (now rely on attorney opinions), the Biden Administration is considering a homebuyer tax credit … that likely won’t help much.

And if you want to see which lenders have the largest concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans, BankOZK takes the cake as the most concentrated lender.

The more the Biden Administration tries to “help” make housing more affordable, paradoxically makes housing even MORE unaffordable.

Bidenomics At Work … For The 1%! 1.3 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In Feb While Native Jobs Dropped By -420k Jobs (Unemployment Rate Highest, Wage Growth Slowest Since Feb 2022)

Somehow, Biden left this factoid out of his State of The Union (SOTU) address. In February, immigrants added 1,277 million jobs while native Americans lost -420,000 jobs according to the BLS. Or maybe Biden can change his campaign motto to “Make America Great Again … For Immigrants, NOT Natives.”

In February, the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years…

It is clear that the labor market is softening, but Biden/Mayorkas will continue to let millions of illegal immigrants pour across the border making the labor market even softer than before. But the top 1% are making out like bandits from the illegal immigration. Bandits benefitting bandits.

Simply Unaffordable! Mortgage Demand Increased 13% From Last Week, But Still Down 8% From Last Year (Home Prices UP 33% Under Biden, Mortgage Rates UP 146%!)

Housing is simply unaffordable for millions of Americans. Home prices are up 33% under Biden’s Reign of Error, while mortgage rates are up 146% under Vacation Joe. Somehow I doubt if Biden will brag about home prices and mortgage rate in his State of the Union address.

On the mortgage side, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 8 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

ddd

Victory?? US GDP Grew By $334 Billion In Q4 With $834 Billion In Additional Debt ($2.5 In Debt To Get $1 Of GDP, Unfunded Liabilities At $664,000 Per Citizen)

Paul Krugman and others are cheering the defeat of inflation (odd since it is on the rise again). But how does our Federal government “grow” the economy and inflation? Borrow and spend, baby!

The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released Q4’s GDP update. The good news? US GDP grew by $334 billion. The bad news? Yellen and Treasury had to borrow $834 billion in debt to get there. That is a ratio of $2.5 of debt to get $1 of GDP. Only in Washington DC does math like that causes zero consternation. They are all down at the nightclub partying the nights away.

I still want to hear Biden (or any other elected official, Democrat or Republican) to explain to me how the US is going to honor its unfunded liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, etc) which is $664,000 PER CITIZEN. Again, this figure does not included the 8-11 million illegal immigrants who have stormed our borders under Biden. Hey, how about an entry fee for each immigrant of $664,000?

“Billions” Biden loves to spend money along with members of Congress and the Administrative State.

Stall Speed! How Bidenomics Has Caused Mortgage Demand To Stall, Mortgage Applications Down 5.6% From Last Week (Inflation + Fed = Mortgage Rates Above 7%)

The mortgage market has reached stall speed thanks to Bidenomics (inflation begat Fed tightening that begat 7%+ mortgage rates).

Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 7.04 percent from 7.06 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Plunged To -3.90 In January (Consumers Suffering Under Bidenomics With Food Prices UP 21% Under Biden, Diesel Fuel Prices UP 90%)

Confidence! It’s what consumers DON’T have under Bidenomics.

For the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January’s was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022. And Conference Board Consumer Confidence was DOWN to -3.90 in January, the worst since Feb 2022.

It really isn’t surprising the consumer confidence stinks. Food prices (CPI) are UP 21% under Vacation Joe Biden. Diesel fuel prices are UP 90% under Listless Joe.

Well, Biden’s appearance on (unfunny) Seth Myer’s Late Night Show certainly didn’t make me feel more confident about America’s future.

Fed’s Love Potion #9! US New Home Sales In January At 1.8% YoY As Supply Jumps (As Mortgage Rates SOAR 149% Under Biden)

The Fed’s love potion #9: Printing endless supplies of money. But it still isn’t creating a large enough growth in new homes. The Fed’s money printing has helped drive housing prices up 32.7% under Biden, making housing unaffordable for millions of households.

But how about NEW homes? New home sales rose in January, but less than expected.

After December’s 8.0% surprise jump was revised down to +7.2% MoM, January sales rose just 1.5% MoM (half the 3.0% expected). In fact all three of the last months’ data was revised lower…

The downward revision and disappointment reduced the YoY sales growth to just 1.8%…

The total new home sales SAAR rose from a downwardly revised 651k to 661k in January (well below the 684k expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

The median sales price of a home decreased to $420,700 in January from a year ago, marking the fifth-straight decline (up marginally from the $413,000 in December which was two year low).

Interestingly, the average price (NSA) soared from $493.4k to $534.3k)… which signals more higher-priced homes selling…

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage rates are back on the rise, not exactly a good sign for new home sales as homebuilders margins collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, new-home supply increased to 456,000 from the prior month, the most in over a year.

Source: Bloomberg

Is reality about to set in for the US housing market? Or will Powell step in (with a banking crisis excuse) to save all that ‘wealth’?

…

Source: Bloomberg

The total new home sales SAAR rose from a downwardly revised 651k to 661k in January (well below the 684k expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

The median sales price of a home decreased to $420,700 in January from a year ago, marking the fifth-straight decline (up marginally from the $413,000 in December which was two year low).

Interestingly, the average price (NSA) soared from $493.4k to $534.3k)… which signals more higher-priced homes selling…

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage rates are back on the rise, not exactly a good sign for new home sales as homebuilders margins collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, new-home supply increased to 456,000 from the prior month, the most in over a year.

Source: Bloomberg

Is reality about to set in for the US housing market? Or will Powell step in (with a banking crisis excuse) to save all that ‘wealth’?

Of course, mortgage rates rising 149% under Biden might have something to do with it.

Simply Unaffordable! Home Prices In 575 Counties Show Housing Unaffordable In 99% Of Counties (Home Prices UP 33% Under Biden, Mortgage Rates UP 149%, Average Weekly Income UP 3% In January)

Simply unaffordable should be the campaign song for the upcoming election.

Housing under Bidenomics is simply unaffordable for many Americans since home price growth has outstripped average income for most Americans.

ATTOM Data Services examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner. And to add insult to injury, 30-year fixed mortgage rates just rose back above 7%.

Although the Attom data is from Q3 2023, not much has changed. Under Biden (and his HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, Fed Chair Jay Powell, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen), I did manage to find TWO AFFORDABLE areas to live: Shreveport Louisiana and Midland/Odessa Texas. The housing market remains unaffordable for millions of Americans.