Mortgage Purchase Applications Increased 6.9% In Weekly Survey (But Purchase Apps Down 42% YoY, Refi Apps Down 76% YoY As Fed Tightens Monetary Noose)

Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 3, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 76 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 42 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Today, we saw mortgage rates climb further to 7.11% as the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) descends into Mortgage Mordor as The Fed continues to tighten.

Slippin’ Into Darkness! US Treasury Yield Curve Descends To -108 BPS (169 Days Of Inversion) As US Mortgage Rate Hits 7.11% (Fed No Longer Low Riding Interest Rates)

Slippin’ into darkness! The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve, that is.

At the same time that the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts to -108 basis points, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.11%.

Now that The Federal Reserve is no longer low riding interest rates, I expect to see a cooling of the US economy.

Hang ‘Em High! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inverts To Near Lowest Since 1981, Credit/Equity Spread Turns Positive As Fed Tightens Monetary Noose

Hang ’em high!

As inflation remains persist (thanks to endless Fed stimulus and endless Federal spending splurges), we are seeing The Federal Reserve finally withdrawing the monetary stimulus (tightening the monetary noose). And with it, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) goes down with it.

Another sign of distress is the spread between credit and equities which has turned positive as it does in times of crisis.

UPDATE! Recession predictor the US Treasury yield curve just went “red alert”, inverting to -100 basis points.

Sink The Economy! S&P 500 Down -6% Since Fed Started Raising Rates On May 4, 2022, Equity REITs Down -16% (Pension Pain From Interest Rate Increases)

Interest rates are an important driver of the economy and financial markets. And what has happened to the S&P 500 index since The Federal Reserve started raising their target rate on May 4, 2023 to fight surging inflation?

Since that fatal day, the S&P 500 index has fallen -6% and equity REITs (commercial real estate) has fallen -16%.

What about returns on US Treasuries and Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS)? Same thing. PAIN!

Although The Fed has pledged to keep raising rates to fight inflation (and further decimate retirement accounts), investors are pointing to a peak (terminal) Fed rate of 5.44% at the September 2023 FOMC meeting. Then rate cuts following the September 2023 meeting.

Of course, much of the blame belongs to former Fed Chair Ben (QE) Bernanke and current Treasury Secretary Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen who never met a Fed rate hike that she liked. But Yellen LOVES giving away US taxpayer dollars … to Ukraine.

Give The Fed 3 Steps! The Fed’s Overreaction To Covid Shutdown (Over Twice The Reaction To The Crippling Financial Crisis Of 2008/2009)

There is a fascinating film about the 2008/2009 financial crisis called “The Big Short.” Actually, Iiked a similar film a little more called “Margin Call” where the infamous fire sale of securities (primarily subprime asset-backed securities).

But despite how bad the financial crisis of 2008/2009 was, the growth of Fed assets on it balance sheet (orange oval) paled in comparison to The Fed’s overreaction to the Covid outbreak of 2020. And the government shutdowns and mask mandates.

The good news? The rate of growth YoY of both The Fed’s balance sheet and M2 Money is negative. But it is still startling to see the comparison of Fed reactions to crises.

Give The Fed three steps to catch up to the mayhem they created. Particularly in inflation home prices.

They call Janet Yellen, former Fed Chair and current Treasury Secretary “The Breeze” because idiotic monetary policies just blow over her head.

After all, The Fed is way behind the curve on raising rates.

All this is happening as the interest paid on our rapidly expanding Federal debt is getting Titanic-like.

US Mortgage Rates Rise To Over 7% As Fed Tightens Monetary Noose (Is Powell Chanelling Volcker?)

Yesterday’s inflation report (in the form on skyrocketing labor costs) helped lead Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate to over 7% … again.

Here is yesterday’s horrible unit labor costs YoY chart showing the fastest growth in labor costs since 1982 and Fed Chair Paul Volcker. Jerome Powell, the current Fed Chair is trying to reduce the Bernanke/Yellen/Powell monetary stimulypto (with an extra dose of “sugar” from the Covid outbreak).

The good news is that the 10-year Treasury yield is down -7.3 basis points this morning.

Here is The Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) trying to summon Paul Volcker to help them figure out how they got inflation so wrong.

Inflation Alert! US Unit Labor Costs Soar in Q4 2022 To 3.2%, 2x Expectation Of 1.6%, UP 6.50% YoY (The Worst In 30 Years)

Despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claiming that inflation was only transitory and likely to disappear, we are seeing continued inflation. Now we see that Unit Labor Costs are up 3.2% QoQ for Q4 2022.

Even worse, US unit labor costs rose 6.5% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the WORST since 1982.

And yes, Q4 2022 unit labor costs are up 2x the expectations.

In normal times, The Federal Reserve would raise rates to cool down the economy. The Taylor Rule suggests a Fed target rate of 10.59% versus the current Fed rate of 4.75%. A long way to go!!

Damn it, Janet!

Here We Go Again! ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Rises For 2nd Straight Month As Fed Slow Walks Balance Sheet Shrinking (Growing Inflation Warning!)

Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve Chair) Janet Yellen kept saying inflation was simply transitory. And for a while, the US saw cooling inflation. But we just saw ISM Manufacturing prices paid rise in February for the second straight month.

Yellen is over in Ukraine handing Zelenksyy yet another couple of billions. This is after Biden just visited Ukraine. Why not VP Kamala Harris?? Or war monger Adam Schiff??

Simply Unaffordable! US Housing (Un)affordability Hits An All-time Low As Fed Tightens (22 Straight Months Of NEGATIVE Real Wage Growth Isn’t Helping)

US housing is simply unaffordable.

Janet Yellen and The Federal Reserve held rates too low for too long and now we are paying for it. Now, after a massive run-up in home prices, The Fed is raising rates helping make US housing the most unaffordable in history (or at least since the early 1980s).

And negative real wage rate growth for 22 straight months isn’t helping!

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Cools To 5.76% YoY As Fed Tightens The Monetary Noose (But Only Seattle And San Francisco Have Negative YoY Price Changes, All 20 Metro Areas Fell In December From November)

The December CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indices are out … for December 2022. And it shows that the CS National home price index growth continues to slow as The Fed tightens its monetary noose. December’s YoY growth was 5.76%.

Only Seattle and San Francisco experienced negative growth in home prices on a year-over-year basis. All of the top twenty metro areas experience negative month-over-month price declines from November to December.