Soothe Me? Q1 GDP Now At -2.8% As 10Y Treasury Yield Falls To 4.157% (Recession Jitters?)

Soothe me? As we move further away from Sleepy Joe’s horrid economic policies, we should see an improvement in GDP from the current Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q1 Forecast of -2.8%.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26.

The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -3.95 percentage points to -4.79 percentage points in the standard model and from -1.92 percentage points to -2.53 percentage points in the alternative model.

The US Treasury 10Y yield has fallen to 4.157% as recession fears mount.

Simply Unaffordable! Multifamily Serious Delinquencies Soar To Highest Since 2000 (Home Prices UP 37% Under Biden, Rents UP 25%)

Housing and rental properties are simply unaffordable.

Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rate on Multifamily (Apartment) loans soared to highest rate since 2000. Since it is as of January 31, 2025, you can’t blame this on Donald Trump (although I am sure they will try).

Of course, home prices and rents soared under Biden. Home prices rose 37% under Biden and rents rose 25%. Simply unaffordable.

And The Fed will keep on printing money!

Credit has been deteriorating.

Won’t Get Fooled Again? New Homes For Sale Hits 500k (Glut), Existing Homes Inventory At 1.24 Million

Apparently, we DID get fooled again. In February, there were 500,000 new homes for sale.

While new home inventory hit 500k, existing home inventory rose to 1.24 million homes.

Cause? Home prices are too damn high. Thanks to Powell and The Fed.

Mortgage originations have dwindled under Biden/Harris.

Jerome Powell and the Blackhearts.

Eggs And Money? Eggs Prices Plummet For 3rd Straight Week As M2 Money Velocity Rises

New USDA data reveals a third consecutive week of price declines at supermarkets.

But the media is always willing to blame Trump for anything, including eggs prices.

Velocity of M2 Money is back to where is was when Trump left office the first time.

Eggs versus M2 Money.

Riding the Trump wave of economic optimism!

Mortgage Applications Increased 11.2 Percent From Last Week (Purchase Index Increased 8 Percent)

The US economy is gradually recovering from Bidenomics (government/donor dictated spending). Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 90 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates declined for the sixth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping to 6.67 percent, the lowest level since October 2024. As a result, applications increased over the week and were up 31 percent from a year ago.

Turnover speeds are arisin’!

Cabbage Rolls And Coffee! Mortgage Applications Increased 20.4 Percent From One Week Earlier

The mortgage market is back! Time to polka!!

Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 20.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 22 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 37 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Thank God the adults are in charge in DC instead of the children we saw at Trump’s speech last night.

Bidenomics (The Full Joe!) Q1 GDP Fell To -1.5%, Pending Home Sales Fall To 70.6

We are now seeing the aftermath of Biden’s failed, top-down, Soviet-style economic policies (or follicies). And it is grim. Bidenomics is now fully exposed like The Fully Month. Except this is The Full Joe!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent.

Another sign of Biden’s failed, top-down cronynomics is housing. Pending home sales fell to 70.6.

Little did we know that Biden’s falling on Air Force One’s stairs was symbolic of what was to come.

Biden Took Us Higher … Prices! New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

High housing prices, high commodity prices, high interest rates. All thanks to Biden’s horrible top-down economic policies. Its as is Biden was humming “I’m going to take prices higher” while he was President.

Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000.

Simply Unaffordable! Portugal, Canada And USA Are Least Affordable, Hawaii And California Are The Least Affordable US States

Housing is simply unaffordable in many parts of the USA and world. Its the same all over the world. except Romania and Finland.

The most unaffordble countries are Portugal, Canada, the USA, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic. The most affordable? Romania, Finland, Italy, and Bulgaria.

For the USA, Hawaii and California are the least affordable while West Virginia and Iowa are the most affordable.

Pushed Too Hard By The Fed? Existing Home Sales Drop -4.9% From December As Mortgage Rates Remain Near 7% (Mortgage Rates UP 164% Under Biden!)

Did Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve push markets too hard?

Sales of existing single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops that closed in January dropped by 4.9% from December, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 4.08 million sales, according to the National Association of Realtors today.

This rate of sales was up just 2.0% from the abysmally low levels a year ago – 2024 as a whole had been the worst sales year since 1995 – and flat with the abysmally low levels two years ago.

Compared to January 2021, the sales rate was down by 36%, compared to January 2019, the sales rate was down by 25%

On a NON seasonally adjusted basis, things look even more grim.

Active inventory is up 27.6% YoY. As mortgage rates are projected to rise, things can get worse.

Mortgage rates continue to hover around 7%. Mortgage rates rose 164% under Biden!

Maybe if Fed Chair Jerome Powell is forced to wear Sky Saxon of The Seed’s wizard outfit, he will improve his policies.