Fed’s Highest Rates In 15 Years To Fight Bidenflation Are Derailing the American Dream (Mortgage Rates Near High Since 2001, Home Costs Double)

The highest interest rates in 15 years are delaying home dreams, putting business plans on ice and forcing many Americans to agree to loan terms that would have been unimaginable just nine months ago. Biden’s anti-fossil fuel policies are helping drive up prices and The Federal Reserve is hiking rates to cool it off.

Most of all, the surge in borrowing costs is punishing the cash-poor. And it’s about to get worse as the Federal Reserve carries on with its anti-inflation campaign and keeps hiking rates next year.

As the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hike cycle in a generation filters through the US economy, the gap is widening between the haves and the have-nots. Even without a recession, households and businesses are feeling the financial pain.

Here’s a look at pockets of the economy that are bearing the brunt of the impact.

Housing in Holding Pattern


Manda Waits from Suwanee, Georgia, feels lucky that she and her husband bought their townhouse near Atlanta a year ago with a 3% loan — less than half of where mortgage rates are now. 

To trim expenses amid soaring consumer prices, the couple recently bought a freezer and stocked it with a quarter cow and half a pig sourced from an agricultural school. But they shelved their plan to upgrade to a single-family home for the time being.

“We would like to buy some land to build on, but these rates aren’t making it attractive, so we are in a holding pattern,” said Waits, who receives disability benefits.

Even in the once red-hot market of Tampa, Florida, a few people showing up at an open house is now considered a good day. “People are just waiting on the sidelines,” said Rae Anna Conforti, a realtor with Re/Max Alliance Group.

As mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2001 this year, real estate agents suddenly found themselves hunting for clients again — if not losing their jobs. Thousands of mortgage employees have already been laid off at lenders including Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The higher rates, coupled with a surge in home values during the pandemic, pushed the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced house to more than $2,000, up from about $1,100 just before Covid-19 hit.


‘Vicious Circle’
The widening gap between the cash-rich and the cash-strapped is playing out at car dealerships across the nation. The former are paying more upfront, while the latter are stuck with high-rate auto loans that will leave them underwater — or forced to settle for cheaper and less reliable vehicles.

Almost one in three car buyers are now taking out six- to seven-year loans on used vehicles to help lower monthly payments.

When consumers are locked for so long, the outstanding balance quickly exceeds a used car’s value, said Oren Weintraub, whose California-based service helps consumers negotiate better prices with dealers for a fee. When they buy their next car, that balance will get tacked onto to the new loan.

“It’s a vicious cycle,” he said.


Matt Tambornini was hoping to take out a car loan to build his credit history. The 22-year-old, who lives near Knoxville, Tennessee, with his parents, figured he’d be in a position to buy a house when mortgage rates eventually come down.

His plan stumbled when a local car dealership offered a 23% loan rate and a 60-month term, a deal that would’ve had him paying thousands more than he wanted. He bought the car anyway, quickly got buyer’s remorse and returned it for a refund.

For now, he’s driving a 15-year-old pick-up he bought with cash.

“It seems like everything is just unaffordable,” Tambornini said.


Soaring Credit Debt 
Interest rates on credit cards that averaged 16.3% at the beginning of the year have climbed to just over 19%, according to Bankrate.com, the highest level in data going back to 1985.

That’s a massive increase especially for lower-income consumers, who may be making the minimum payment and carrying a balance for 20 years, said Scott Sanborn, chief executive officer of LendingClub Corp. 

“I don’t think consumers have fully internalized yet how much their cost of living has actually increased,” Sanborn said.

The  surge in APRs to historical highs isn’t affecting consumers the same way. It makes no difference to those who pay off their balances monthly — many don’t even notice the rate increases — but it’s hitting those who are falling behind.

Mike Lauretti, 24, has about $12,000 in debt on four cards, as well as car, student and private debt. The high school social worker, who lives near Hartford, Connecticut, is working on paying off the card with the smallest amount first before moving to the next — known as the snowball method. He also took an extra job as a coach of the girls basketball team to supplement his income.

“I am using the snowball method to pay off the cards first and then it’ll eventually lead to me paying the private loan,” the largest, he said.

American consumers will end the year with about $110 billion more in credit-card debt than they started with, which would be close to an annual record, according to WalletHub, an online personal finance data firm.
The reality may hit next year, when many economists predict the US will enter a recession. Household debt delinquencies are still well below their end of 2019 levels, but they’re picking up.

“We expect delinquencies to continue to increase, with new credit-card and auto delinquencies reaching pre-pandemic levels in the first half of next year,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.

Small Businesses


In Dayton, Ohio, Clara Osterhage would love to add to her 82 Great Clips hair salons and she knows people who are looking to sell. 

“But I can’t put myself in a place to buy them, because the interest rates on any money that we would borrow would be astronomical,” she said.

Matt Haller, chief executive of the International Franchise Association, said high loan rates will keep smaller buyers of franchises out of the market, while bigger companies with more access to capital consolidate.

Meantime, some would-be buyers are demanding that sellers help finance the deal, said Dustin Zeher of Horizon Business Brokers in Virginia.

“We’re talking about 50% to 80% of the transaction, because they are cognizant and aware of the rising interest rates and how that has effectively reduced their buying power and has increased the cost of the transaction,” Zeher said.

Greg Vojnovic, owner of a small fast-food chain in the Youngstown, Ohio area, said the debt service — or debt payments — on his Small Business Administration loan has risen by $70,000 annually, and he expects it to climb at least another $15,000 as the Fed continues to raise rates. He’ll have to cut two part-time corporate-office positions to lower costs. 

“If bacon goes up, people understand if you raise prices,” said Vojnovic, owner of the Hot Dog Shoppe. “If chicken goes up, people understand that. If debt service goes up, you just kind of have to eat that.”

Here is Joe Biden, shooting the hopes of millions of Americans in the tuchus.

Stimulypto! US REAL 10Y Yield, REAL Fed Funds Target Rate And REAL Wage Growth Have Been Negative Under “Inflation Joe” Biden And An Overly Generous Fed

Like the Mel Gibson movie “Apocalypto!”, we are seeing the US middle class and low-wage workers being economically sacrificed by The Federal Reserve, the Biden Administration and Congress.

Despite the rhetoric that Fed stimulus (aka “Stimulypto!”) is being removed, the US remains plagued by NEGATIVE real 10-year Treasury yields, NEGATIVE real Fed Funds Target rate and NEGATIVE real average hourly earnings growth under Inflation Joe.

This chart demonstrates the Stimulytpo problem. Prior to Covid, US wage growth was consistently higher than headline inflation. But starting in March 2021, three months after Biden became President, headline inflation became higher than wage growth.

Even with all these negative REAL rates, the US economy is forecast to have almost no growth in 2023.

To quote Peggy Lee, Is That All There Is? Trillions in Federal spending and Fed monetary stimulus and all we get it 0.50% Real GDP??

Eyes Wide Shut? Sam Bankman-Fried And The Absence Of Risk Management (The Collapse Of Cryptos As The Fed Tightens Fighting Bidenflation)

One of the great ironies of the Sam Bankman-Fried debacle is that while SBF was a generous donor to Democrats (and a few RINOs) and President Biden, it was Biden’s green energy policies that were part of the nail in SBF’s crypto empire. As inflation exploded upon Biden taking office (and massive overspending by Congress), The Federal Reserve jumped in to cool inflation leading to the downfall of cryptos in terms of price.

M2 Money YoY (green line) shows the massive growth money with the Covid economic shutdowns in 2020. Cryptos skyrocketed after that much money was printed by The Fed. Cryptos fell shortly after peaking in April/May 2021, then peaked again in a horrific display of asset volatility in October/November 2021.

What happened in late 2021 to crush cryptos? Ah, expectations of Fed rate increases (red line) started to soar meaning the punchbowl for cryptos was being taken away. The Fed giveth and The Fed taketh away.

The risk management question is … how did SBF and Alameda Research’s Caroline Ellison didn’t notice the relationshop between crypto prices and changing Federal Reserve monetary policy? Even worse, why didn’t investors ask questions??

Take a gander at Bitcoin relative to US diesel fuel prices (orange line) and The Fed’s inflation counterattack (red line). Sam and Sweet Caroline (who was seen walking free in NYC) must not have been monitoring how rapidly rising diesel prices would permeate the entire economy in terms of price increases. M2 Money YoY (green line) has been declining as the expectations of Fed rate tightening (red line) has increased.

SBF donated a huge amount to the midterm elections, the party that went along with Biden’s war on fossil fuels. Then inflation ensued as energy and food prices skyrocketed, leading The Federal Reserve to fight inflation by removing the monetary punchbowl. So, in a sense, SBF donations led to his own collapse.

Apparently, SBF, Caroline Ellison and the other FTXers were engaged in orgies and not paying attention to the impact of inflation and Fed policies on cryptos.

Lastly, how did Gary Genslar and the SEC not see any of this? In the same way that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke didn’t see the financial crisis as it was rapidly unfolding: eyes wide shut.

I read that Nicole Kidman underwent psychiatric treatment after filming “Eyes Wide Shut.” I saw it and was bored out of my mind.

California Screamin’! 2022 Home Prices Crashed Mostly In California As Fed Withdraws Monetary Stimulus (Austin TX And Seattle WA Also Crashed Hard)

California Screamin’!

6 of the top 8 metro areas with the largest home price crash in 2022 were in California, according to Redfin.

Sadly, I lived in three of these metro areas (Austin TX, San Jose CA and Phoenix AZ), although I wouldn’t confuse correlation with causation.

The trend for home price growth (blue line) is definitely on the downturn as The Fed removes its ample stimulus (green line).

Here is California governor Gavin (Nancy Pelosi’s nephew) Newsome screaming about crashing California home prices.

US Debt Rose 250% From 2007 To Today Under Pelosi, Boehner, Ryan, Pelosi (Pelosi Is Greatest Spender Of All Time But Ignored Crippling Unfunded Liabilities Problem … 452% Of Massive Federal Debt)

Nancy Pelosi is passing her gavel to someone else (most likely McCarthy R-CA), but her legacy like that of fellow spendaholic John Boeher (RINO-Ohio) and Paul Rino (RINO-WI) is reckless spending and debt load.

Since 2007 when Pelosi took the gavel as Speaker of the US House, Federal debt has risen from $5.8 trillion in Q4 2006 to $31.4 trillion today, an increase of over 250%. Pelosi’s spending spree was continued by RINOs Boehner and Ryan before SanFranNac retook the gavel and continued Congress’ spend-a-holic ways.

Nothing has been the same since the financial crisis and Pelosi became Speaker in 2007. Notable is the wild spending with the gap between spending and tax revenue soaring.

Since 2007 and SanFranNan, Medicare spending has exploded along with Medicaid.

Under peace-loving Pelosi, defense spending has exploded.

And then we have unfunded liabilites from the Federal government at a staggering $173.3 trillion, which is 452% of Federal debt. What did Pelosi (or Boehner/Ryan) do to fix this problem? Nothing. She kept spending like crazy.

It would be nice if Biden told every illegal immigrant that on becoming a citizen, you owe $519,286 in terms of unfunded liabilities and a $94,240 for their share of Federal debt. But, of course, that will never happen.

The S&P 500 index is down -2.44% today as M2 Money growth crashes.

Then we have Nancy Pelosi sneaking Obamacare into law by not giving Republicans time to read the massive Obamacare bill.

Again, RINOs Boehner and Ryan followed Pelosi’s massive spending spree with even more spending and debt.

Here is a painting of spendaholic Nancy Pelosi with fellow spendaholic John Boehner.

The Empire Strikes Out! NY Manufacturing Outlook Shrivels To -11.2% And Its NOT Always Sunny In Philadelphia Fed Outlook At -13.8% (S&P 500 Index Drops -1.87%, EuroStox Drops -3.42%)

The numbers coming out today are not good. November numbers were 1) US Industrial Production was down -0.2% MoM, 2) manufacturing production is down -0.6%, 3) retail sales advanced down -0.6% (most in 11 months) and …

The Empire State Manufacturing outlook was down -11.2% and the Philadelphia Fed (or Phed) business outlook was down -13.8% in November.

And with all this bad news, global equity markets are dropping like a paralyzed falcon.

But at least Biden traded a dangerous international arms dealer for WBNA star Brittney Griner. Possilby the worst trade in history after the Chicago Cubs traded future Hall of Famer Lou Brock for sore-arm pitcher Ernie Broglio. Griner is Ernie Broglio.

Fed Surprises No One With 50 Basis Point Rate Hike, Highest Since November 2007 (New Fed Dots Plot Looks Like Lillehammer Ski Jump)

As expected, The Federal Reserve raised their target rate by 50 basis points to 4.50%, the highest Fed target rate since November 2007.

The only thing interesting that happened was Powell’s hawkish statements about The Fed wanting to keep tightening to fight inflation caused under “Inflation Joe” Biden.

But the NEW Fed Dots plot looks like an Olympic Ski jump with expectations of DECLINING Fed target rates.

My take on the steeply downward sloping Dot Plot is a tacit acknowledgement that a recession is headed our way in 2023.

Here is the Lillehammer Olympic ski jump that resembles today’s Fed Dots Plot.

Gone In 60 Seconds? Treasuries And Stock Futures Trading Spike 60 Seconds BEFORE CPI Data Release (Who Tipped The Wink?)

Apparently, despite the denials from the Biden Administration, someone at Bureau of Labor Statistics or someone in Congress or the Federal Reserve or the Biden Admininstration itself likely tipped the wink on the soft CPI report on Tuesday.

Treasuries were well on the front-foot in the lead up to the below-estimate November CPO print, as a surge of buying took place seconds before the official 8:30 am New York release time. Over a 60 second period before the data, 13,518 March 10-year futures traded as the contract moved from 114-04+ up to 114-22. Gains were then extended up to 115-11 session highs once the data was released.

On the equity side, stock futures suddenly spiked more than 1%. Trading in Treasury futures surged, pushing benchmark yields lower by about 4 basis points. Those are major moves in such a short period of time — bigger than full-session swings on some days. And they should get scrutinized by regulators, long-time market observers say, even if a leak is only one of several possible explanations for why traders suddenly started buying right before the report was published. 

Remember that current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was accused of leaking information to a NY hedge fund ahead of the Fed Open Market Committee meeting? And then we have the Wolf of Wall Street.

I wonder if the REAL Wolf of Wall Street did this?

MBA Mortgage Applications Rise 3.2% From Previous Week, But Purchase Applications Down 38% From Same Week Last Year As Fed Tightens

Mortgage applications increased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2022.

The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 38 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

You can see the impact of seasonalilty on mortgage purchase applications (white line). They peaked in the week of May 6, 2022 and have been generally declining since. While refi applications (orange line) increased over the past week, they have been pummelled by The Fed tightening.

It is quiet today as investors wait for The Fed to announce a 50 basis point rate increase. Fed Funds Futures point to almost another 100 basis point hike by May 5, 2023, then a slow decline in The Fed Funds target rate (upper bound).

And here is Sam Bankman-Fried and his high-powered legal defense.

The Fed Needs To Take A Look At Itself: WSJ Editorial By Levy And Plosser (Taylor Rule Implied Target Rate Of 12.07%, Current Rate At 4%)

Paul Revere and the Raiders said it best about The Federal Reserve. Take a look at yourself.

Mickey Levy of Berenberg Capital and Charles Plosser wrote a great op-ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Federal Reserve Needs a Hard Look in the Mirror.” Here is a Fed Reserve St Louis paper by Levy and Plosser entitled “The Murky Future of Monetary Policy.”

Abstract

In August 2020, the Federal Reserve unveiled its new strategic framework. One major objective of the Fed was to address its concerns over the potential consequences for the conduct of monetary policy when the policy rate was constrained by its effective lower bound. This article concludes that there are significant flaws in the new strategy and that it encourages a more discretionary approach to monetary policy and increases the risks of policy errors. The new framework is an overly complex and asymmetric flexible average inflation targeting scheme that introduces a significant inflationary bias into policy and expands the scope for discretion by broadening the Fed’s employment mandate to “maximum inclusive employment.” In a postscript, the article describes how quickly the flaws have been revealed and urges a reset toward a more systematic and coherent strategy that is transparent and broadly understood by the public.

I attended a speech by macoeconomist Gershon Mandelker at the National Association of Realtors where he called on the Federal Reserve to follow some observable rule rather than the complex (or seat of the pants) approach to monetary policy.

With today’s inflation report (core inflation YoY of 6%) results in a Taylor Rule estimate of The Fed Funds Target Rate of 12.07%. We are struggling to reach 5% as a “terminal” Fed target rate (currently at 4% and likely to rise 50 basis points at tomorrow’s Fed meeting).

The matrix of CPI and unemployment under the Taylor Rule shows that The Fed’s target rate isn’t at even 5% for any relevant combination of core CPI (inflation) and unemployment rate.

Note that since the financial crisis the Fed’s target rate (white line) has been consistely below the Taylor Rule implied rate (blue dashed line).

Here is Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen laughing at those who want some kind of observable Fed rule.