Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
Americans’ Savings Rate Drops to Lowest Since 2008 as Inflation Bites.
Yes, inflation really bites. In fact, as US inflation is near the 40-year high, US personal savings declined -65% YoY as consumers try to cope with rising prices.
Its not only that personal savings is crashing in the face of inflation, revolving debt has soared as consumers try to cope with rising prices. I call this chart “The Biden Bowl.” Soaring consumer credit card debt with crashing personal savings.
I remember this headline from CNBC from THU, OCT 14 2021: Foreclosures are surging now that Covid mortgage bailouts are ending, but they’re still at low levels.
But the foreclosure surge never materialized.
If we look at 90+ days late for mortgages (yellow line), we see that the surge in unemployment with the Covid outbreak and subsequent government shutdowns (red line) did not lead to a surge in mortgage foreclosures.
This situation is quite unlike 2008 when collapsing home prices and the subsequent surge in the unemployment rate led to a 90+ days late surge on mortgages (yellow line).
Difference between today and 2008? The Federal Reserve’s asset purchase (green line) surge happened twice AFTER the 2008 housing crash. Once in late 2008 through 2014, then a second, bigger surge in March 2020 after the Covid outbreak. One big difference is the surge in home prices, home price growth was 3.69% YoY in December 2019 and skyrocketed to 19.80% as of February 2022. This translates to a massive increase in homeowner equity, leading to a lower probability of default.
So, there you go. Powell and The Federal Reserve made housing unaffordable for millions of Americans, but The Fed did help thwart another mortgage default crisis. BUT we will see what happens with future rate hikes from The Fed.
Here is Attom’s US Foreclosure Starts chart. Yes, that is hardly a surge, although foreclosure starts did rise in Q1 2022.
So, The Fed has helped make housing simply unaffordable. Look at the growth of REAL home prices relative to REAL average hourly earnings.
The kids at The Fed aren’t too sharp when it comes to making housing affordable.
All I can say is “Wow.” Tobias Peter and Ed Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) released their April housing report and it was a doozy. The AEI’s home price appreciation index came in at a blood curdling 17.3% YoY.
The reason why home prices are still raging at 17.3% YoY? The Fed’s monetary stimulypto is STILL in place! The Fed’s balance sheet (green line) is still staggering, and The Fed Funds target rate (white line) is a measly 1%.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is talking about a pause in Fed tightening. Which they haven’t paused yet.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is really “slowhand,” not Eric Clapton. Bostic is now a member of The Fed’s “Slowhand” strategy.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 20, 2022.
The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 75 percent lower than the same week one year ago. And under Biden, the refinance index is down -83.2%.
The good news? The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago. And the mortgage purchase applications index is down -12% under Biden.
While mortgage interest rates are up 71.7% than one year ago and mortgage rates are up 87% under Biden. As The Federal Reserve signals (but not yet accomplished) monetary tightening.
Once again, The Fed is dead set on cooling inflation caused by 1) Biden’s anti-drilling policies and 2) the remnants of the Federal government spending splurge to combat Covid. The Fed has been increasing their asset purchases (purple line) as inflation increase (blue line). Now they are signaling a decline in the balance sheet (green line) in the hope that it will cool inflation. Fat chance.
Let’s see how DEAD SET The Fed is about tightening monetary policy in the face of rising energy and food prices while a war rages in Ukraine and China in a Covid lockdown.
We are all goin’ down the road feelin’ bad under Biden.
We have a double whammy facing investors, The Federal Reserve wanting to take away the monetary punch bowl and Federal energy policies that are crushing middle-class households and lower-wages workers.
But how do you hedge against The Federal Reserve tightening and Biden’s reckless energy policies?
Take a look at investing in commodities (S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust and the Bloomberg Commodity Index) versus the S&P 500 Total Return index since The Fed began signaling that they would take away the monetary punch bowl.
Yes, commodities like food and gasoline/diesel prices are up dramatically under Biden’s energy policies (not to mention the USA’s proxy war with Russia).
The Fed seems determined to remove the Fed “Snake juice” from the economy.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George said The Fed isn’t focused on impact of rates on stocks (or pension funds, apparently).
The inflation that is crushing Americans is due to energy and food price increases. That is, the non-core inflation. Under Biden, food is up 63%, gasoline is up 92% and diesel prices are up 112%. But The Fed doesn’t consider food and energy prices, per se.
If we look at the Taylor Rule considering fighting inflation including food and energy, The Fed would have to raise their target rate to … 21.38%.
Now, The Fed can clearly cool-off the housing market by raising rates. In fact, my fear is that they go too far and crash the housing market. The Fed will NEVER get to 20% again like we last saw under Volcker in 1981. 20% rates certainly cooled home prices back then and Fed rate hikes helped crash the housing market in 2008.
So, when The Fed says they want to be the inflation-fightin’ Fed, we must be aware what The Fed can and cannot do. They can’t tame the inflation beast in the form of food and energy prices (unless they crash the economy), but they can crush home prices.
Americans are suffering under Joe Biden. Call it Inflation Inferno!
Foodstuff are up 61.5% under Biden’s Reign of Error. Gasoline prices are up 85.8%, diesel prices are up 111%. Yet the government inflation index (aka, CPI) is up only 8.3% in April.
But while energy and food prices are soaring, the CRB Spot Metals Index has plummeted -15% since May 4 as Covid is ravaging the Chinese economy. Recession alter anyone?
And then we have soaring home prices and rents. But notice that Zillow’s Rent index is slowing down as mortgage rates soar.
We have a stalling Chinese market, down 28% since October. Is Biden President of China??
On the currency front, the Russian Ruble is soaring relative to the US Dollar while the Chinese Renminbi, the Japanese Yen and the Euro (or in this case, the Gyro) are sinking like a rock.
If I compare the Russian Ruble and Ukrainian Hryvnia, you can see Ukraine is losing the currency war with Russia.
Inflation Inferno thanks to Biden’s misguided energy executive orders and cancellation of Alaskan and Gulf of Mexico drilling leases.
Biden’s economic mismanagement team: American Gothics Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jay Powell.
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Nothing has been the same since Covid and The Federal Reserve’s massive overreaction to the government shutdowns of the economy.
Notice how the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (white line) has plunged since Covid and the ensuing rise in inflation. University of Michigan’s Buying Conditions for Houses has also plunged to new depths.
Yes, Bidenflation is just killing us.
Rising inflation (highest in 40 years) and hottest home price bubble (even hotter than the infamous housing bubble of 2005-2007) AND rising mortgage rates have placed a damper on home buying sentiment.
The theme song for the Biden economy is The Blasters’ Dark Night.
The US Senate yesterday confirmed the reappointment of Jerome “Slowhand” Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.
The good news? Atlanta Fed’s Flexible CPI YoY cooled to 20% in April. The bad news? Flexible prices are still growing at 20% while wages are growing at 5.5% YoY.
On the export front, export prices are cooling and were at 18% YoY in April, down slightly from March. Import prices cooled to 12% YoY as The Federal Reserve has slowed asset purchases.
I would have preferred President Biden appoint a serious Federal Reserve Chairman liked Stanford University’s John Taylor (of Taylor Rule fame). In his honor, here is the Mankin version of the Taylor Rule which calls for a Fed Funds Target Rate of 13.89% while the current Fed Funds Target Rate under Powell and the Gang is … 1%.
Call it the Powell Boogie. At a very slow speed.
The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate is rising faster than a SpaceX moonshot!
I’m telling your now that The Fed is killing the dreams of millions of Americans by pricing them out of the housing market. Home price growth is lethal as is the increase in mortgage rates.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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