Mortgage Bomb Cyclone! Mortgage Rates Drop 82 Basis Points Since October 21, Yet Purchase Apps Down -17.25% (Purchase Apps Down 36% Since Last Year, Refi Apps Down 85% Since Last Year)

The mortgage market is behaving like today’s bomb cyclone in terms of the weather. Bomb cyclone in that mortgage rates have dropped 7.16% on October 21, 2022 to 6.34% on December 16, 2022 (a drop of 82 basis points), but mortgage purchase and refinancing applications are not increasing like one would hope.

Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 16, 2022.

The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 36 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

But remember, The Federal Reserve is going to be lowering their target rate after they keep raising it.

US Housing Starts Plunge -16.4% Since Last November As Fed Tightens (Permits Plunge -22.4% YoY)

US housing starts plunged -16.4% since the same time last year (aka, YoY) as The Federal Reserve continues tightening its monetary policy.

Since October (aka, MoM), housing starts only dropped -.049% in November. 1-unit detached starts were down -4.06%. But multifamily (5+) starts were up 4.85% MoM.

Building permits were down -11.24% from October to November (baby, its cold outside!) and down -22.4% since November 2021 (aka, YoY).

Now, watch as President Biden and The Fed make housing construction disappear.

Lightning Strikes? US Recession May Strike In September 2023 As Fed Continues To Fight Bidenflation (10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inverted For 112 Straight Days)

Lightning strikes!

The 12-month-ahead probability of recession spiked in November across all of yield curve models. The deterioration in the outlook was most significant in the one that relies on the 3-month/18-month forward spread — Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s favored model — which now sees a 59% chance of recession next year, compared with almost 0% six months ago. Yield curve models see the strongest signal for recession starting around September 2023.

We assess the probability of recession in the months ahead by looking at a suite of models: three yield curve models — which take as their sole input the spreads between 2-year/10-year, 3-month/10-year, and 3-month/18-month forward US Treasury yields, respectively — as well as a model that takes 13 financial and macroeconomic indicators as inputs.

All three yield curves inverted further in November, indicating higher probability of a downturn next year. Notably, the 3-month/18-month forward curve inverted for the first time this year, and the model based on that indicator suggests a 59% chance of recession in 12 months (vs. 32% for the same reference period in the prior update) — that would be in November 2023.

My favorite yield curve is the 10-year – 2-year curve which has been inverted for 112 straight days.

Winter is coming ,,, in September.

Going Down! NAHB Homebuilder Market Index Plunges To Covid-lows Of 31 As Fed Tightens

Ain’t this a kick in the … head.

Rising mortgage rates courtesy of The Federal Reserve’s tightening to fight Bidenflation has led to a Covid-level plunge in the NAHB Homebuilder Market Index.

Everything seems to be going down with a sinking M2 Money growth.

And today, the 10-year US Treasury yield is up over 10 bps. Watch out mortgage rates!

Fed’s Highest Rates In 15 Years To Fight Bidenflation Are Derailing the American Dream (Mortgage Rates Near High Since 2001, Home Costs Double)

The highest interest rates in 15 years are delaying home dreams, putting business plans on ice and forcing many Americans to agree to loan terms that would have been unimaginable just nine months ago. Biden’s anti-fossil fuel policies are helping drive up prices and The Federal Reserve is hiking rates to cool it off.

Most of all, the surge in borrowing costs is punishing the cash-poor. And it’s about to get worse as the Federal Reserve carries on with its anti-inflation campaign and keeps hiking rates next year.

As the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hike cycle in a generation filters through the US economy, the gap is widening between the haves and the have-nots. Even without a recession, households and businesses are feeling the financial pain.

Here’s a look at pockets of the economy that are bearing the brunt of the impact.

Housing in Holding Pattern


Manda Waits from Suwanee, Georgia, feels lucky that she and her husband bought their townhouse near Atlanta a year ago with a 3% loan — less than half of where mortgage rates are now. 

To trim expenses amid soaring consumer prices, the couple recently bought a freezer and stocked it with a quarter cow and half a pig sourced from an agricultural school. But they shelved their plan to upgrade to a single-family home for the time being.

“We would like to buy some land to build on, but these rates aren’t making it attractive, so we are in a holding pattern,” said Waits, who receives disability benefits.

Even in the once red-hot market of Tampa, Florida, a few people showing up at an open house is now considered a good day. “People are just waiting on the sidelines,” said Rae Anna Conforti, a realtor with Re/Max Alliance Group.

As mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2001 this year, real estate agents suddenly found themselves hunting for clients again — if not losing their jobs. Thousands of mortgage employees have already been laid off at lenders including Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The higher rates, coupled with a surge in home values during the pandemic, pushed the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced house to more than $2,000, up from about $1,100 just before Covid-19 hit.


‘Vicious Circle’
The widening gap between the cash-rich and the cash-strapped is playing out at car dealerships across the nation. The former are paying more upfront, while the latter are stuck with high-rate auto loans that will leave them underwater — or forced to settle for cheaper and less reliable vehicles.

Almost one in three car buyers are now taking out six- to seven-year loans on used vehicles to help lower monthly payments.

When consumers are locked for so long, the outstanding balance quickly exceeds a used car’s value, said Oren Weintraub, whose California-based service helps consumers negotiate better prices with dealers for a fee. When they buy their next car, that balance will get tacked onto to the new loan.

“It’s a vicious cycle,” he said.


Matt Tambornini was hoping to take out a car loan to build his credit history. The 22-year-old, who lives near Knoxville, Tennessee, with his parents, figured he’d be in a position to buy a house when mortgage rates eventually come down.

His plan stumbled when a local car dealership offered a 23% loan rate and a 60-month term, a deal that would’ve had him paying thousands more than he wanted. He bought the car anyway, quickly got buyer’s remorse and returned it for a refund.

For now, he’s driving a 15-year-old pick-up he bought with cash.

“It seems like everything is just unaffordable,” Tambornini said.


Soaring Credit Debt 
Interest rates on credit cards that averaged 16.3% at the beginning of the year have climbed to just over 19%, according to Bankrate.com, the highest level in data going back to 1985.

That’s a massive increase especially for lower-income consumers, who may be making the minimum payment and carrying a balance for 20 years, said Scott Sanborn, chief executive officer of LendingClub Corp. 

“I don’t think consumers have fully internalized yet how much their cost of living has actually increased,” Sanborn said.

The  surge in APRs to historical highs isn’t affecting consumers the same way. It makes no difference to those who pay off their balances monthly — many don’t even notice the rate increases — but it’s hitting those who are falling behind.

Mike Lauretti, 24, has about $12,000 in debt on four cards, as well as car, student and private debt. The high school social worker, who lives near Hartford, Connecticut, is working on paying off the card with the smallest amount first before moving to the next — known as the snowball method. He also took an extra job as a coach of the girls basketball team to supplement his income.

“I am using the snowball method to pay off the cards first and then it’ll eventually lead to me paying the private loan,” the largest, he said.

American consumers will end the year with about $110 billion more in credit-card debt than they started with, which would be close to an annual record, according to WalletHub, an online personal finance data firm.
The reality may hit next year, when many economists predict the US will enter a recession. Household debt delinquencies are still well below their end of 2019 levels, but they’re picking up.

“We expect delinquencies to continue to increase, with new credit-card and auto delinquencies reaching pre-pandemic levels in the first half of next year,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.

Small Businesses


In Dayton, Ohio, Clara Osterhage would love to add to her 82 Great Clips hair salons and she knows people who are looking to sell. 

“But I can’t put myself in a place to buy them, because the interest rates on any money that we would borrow would be astronomical,” she said.

Matt Haller, chief executive of the International Franchise Association, said high loan rates will keep smaller buyers of franchises out of the market, while bigger companies with more access to capital consolidate.

Meantime, some would-be buyers are demanding that sellers help finance the deal, said Dustin Zeher of Horizon Business Brokers in Virginia.

“We’re talking about 50% to 80% of the transaction, because they are cognizant and aware of the rising interest rates and how that has effectively reduced their buying power and has increased the cost of the transaction,” Zeher said.

Greg Vojnovic, owner of a small fast-food chain in the Youngstown, Ohio area, said the debt service — or debt payments — on his Small Business Administration loan has risen by $70,000 annually, and he expects it to climb at least another $15,000 as the Fed continues to raise rates. He’ll have to cut two part-time corporate-office positions to lower costs. 

“If bacon goes up, people understand if you raise prices,” said Vojnovic, owner of the Hot Dog Shoppe. “If chicken goes up, people understand that. If debt service goes up, you just kind of have to eat that.”

Here is Joe Biden, shooting the hopes of millions of Americans in the tuchus.

Stimulypto! US REAL 10Y Yield, REAL Fed Funds Target Rate And REAL Wage Growth Have Been Negative Under “Inflation Joe” Biden And An Overly Generous Fed

Like the Mel Gibson movie “Apocalypto!”, we are seeing the US middle class and low-wage workers being economically sacrificed by The Federal Reserve, the Biden Administration and Congress.

Despite the rhetoric that Fed stimulus (aka “Stimulypto!”) is being removed, the US remains plagued by NEGATIVE real 10-year Treasury yields, NEGATIVE real Fed Funds Target rate and NEGATIVE real average hourly earnings growth under Inflation Joe.

This chart demonstrates the Stimulytpo problem. Prior to Covid, US wage growth was consistently higher than headline inflation. But starting in March 2021, three months after Biden became President, headline inflation became higher than wage growth.

Even with all these negative REAL rates, the US economy is forecast to have almost no growth in 2023.

To quote Peggy Lee, Is That All There Is? Trillions in Federal spending and Fed monetary stimulus and all we get it 0.50% Real GDP??

Eyes Wide Shut? Sam Bankman-Fried And The Absence Of Risk Management (The Collapse Of Cryptos As The Fed Tightens Fighting Bidenflation)

One of the great ironies of the Sam Bankman-Fried debacle is that while SBF was a generous donor to Democrats (and a few RINOs) and President Biden, it was Biden’s green energy policies that were part of the nail in SBF’s crypto empire. As inflation exploded upon Biden taking office (and massive overspending by Congress), The Federal Reserve jumped in to cool inflation leading to the downfall of cryptos in terms of price.

M2 Money YoY (green line) shows the massive growth money with the Covid economic shutdowns in 2020. Cryptos skyrocketed after that much money was printed by The Fed. Cryptos fell shortly after peaking in April/May 2021, then peaked again in a horrific display of asset volatility in October/November 2021.

What happened in late 2021 to crush cryptos? Ah, expectations of Fed rate increases (red line) started to soar meaning the punchbowl for cryptos was being taken away. The Fed giveth and The Fed taketh away.

The risk management question is … how did SBF and Alameda Research’s Caroline Ellison didn’t notice the relationshop between crypto prices and changing Federal Reserve monetary policy? Even worse, why didn’t investors ask questions??

Take a gander at Bitcoin relative to US diesel fuel prices (orange line) and The Fed’s inflation counterattack (red line). Sam and Sweet Caroline (who was seen walking free in NYC) must not have been monitoring how rapidly rising diesel prices would permeate the entire economy in terms of price increases. M2 Money YoY (green line) has been declining as the expectations of Fed rate tightening (red line) has increased.

SBF donated a huge amount to the midterm elections, the party that went along with Biden’s war on fossil fuels. Then inflation ensued as energy and food prices skyrocketed, leading The Federal Reserve to fight inflation by removing the monetary punchbowl. So, in a sense, SBF donations led to his own collapse.

Apparently, SBF, Caroline Ellison and the other FTXers were engaged in orgies and not paying attention to the impact of inflation and Fed policies on cryptos.

Lastly, how did Gary Genslar and the SEC not see any of this? In the same way that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke didn’t see the financial crisis as it was rapidly unfolding: eyes wide shut.

I read that Nicole Kidman underwent psychiatric treatment after filming “Eyes Wide Shut.” I saw it and was bored out of my mind.

US Real GDP Growth Forecast To Be Dismal 0.50% In 2023, Personal Savings Rate -67.9% YoY In October, US Mortgage Rates Headed Down (Economic Lights On But Nobody’s Home)

Albert Collins said it best about the US economy under Joe Biden: “Lights Are On But Nobody’s Home”.

The Federal Reserve forecast for the US economy is a dismal 0.50% YoY. Do I detect a trend?

The FOMC forecast for 2023 and 2024. Core PCE YoY (inflation) is forecast to drop to 3.50%, still considerably higher than The Fed’s target rate of inflation of 2%. And unemployment is forecast to be 4.60%.

To cope with Bidenflation, US personal savings rate as of October is -67.9% YoY. The “good” news is that rents YoY are crashing. But food prices under Inflation Joe remain very high. But most everything is slowing down, not due to Biden’s policies, but a global and US economic slowdown.

With a big slowdown coming our way, you can understand why The Fed’s December Dot Plot is showing declining Fed Funds Target rate starts declining in 2024.

Even US mortgage rates are headed down.

Speaking of going down, cryptos are down across the board with Cardano leading the decline at -6.91%.

All aboard the SS Biden!

The Amazing, Disappearing Jumbo/Conforming Mortgage Spread Since Covid And Fed Intervention (Jumbo Spread At 1.67 Basis Points After Covid Fed Reaction)

Years ago, Brent Ambrose, Michael Lacour-Little and I wrote a paper on the US 30-year jumbo mortgage spread over conforming 30-year mortgage rates entitled “The effect of conforming loan status on mortgage yield spreads: a loan level analysis.” But that paper was written before Covid and the dramatic distortion caused in mortgage markets by The Federal Reserve’s massive increase in money.

Here is the spread between Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate and their 30-year JUMBO mortgage. Notice that between 2007 and early 2020, the median “jumbo spread” was 49 basis points. But after Covid and The Fed’s counterattack (by printing M2 Money), the median Jumbo spread from 4/1/2020 to today is only 1 basis point.

In the following chart, you can see the jumbo mortgage rate (yellow) against the conforming mortgage rate (white) and there is almost always a spread between the two UNTIL 2020 where we saw M2 Money growth (green line) spike and The Fed increased their purchases of Agency MBS (purple line). Since Covid and The Fed’s massive reaction, the jumbo rate and conforming rate are virtually the same. In fact, the latest jumbo spread is 1 basis point over the conforming rate.

Why is this happening? One explanation is that demand from the investors who ultimately buy jumbo mortgages. The strong demand by investors appears to have driven down the yields on jumbos relative to conventional loans, especially as the use and accessibility to jumbos has grown.

A second explanation is that Loan Level Price Adjustments that were added to conforming loans post-financial crisis never went away (until just recently on selected loans). This makes jumbos and conforming loans very close in yield.

So, when will the mortgage market return to normal and jumbo mortgages go back to the normal 50 basis point spread? We may see normalization if The Fed speeds up its withdrawal from markets. Also, getting rid of Loan Level Price Adjustments would help normalized the mortgage market.

But things are getting stressed in jumboland (California) where home prices are crashing in 5 of the top 8 metro areas.

Harry Houdini couldn’t have created a more tantalizing mystery … and one I wish would go away.

Not Always Sunny! Philadelphia Fed Admits US Jobs “Overstated” By At Least 1.1 Million From March To June 2022 (Will Biden Retract “Greatest Economy In History Statement?)

Its NOT always sunny in Philadelphia. Here is a video of the Philly Fed economists explaining massively overstated job numbers to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia estimates that the employment data was vastly overstated in 2022. 10k jobs added instead of 1.1 million reported from March to June of 2022.

Here is a chart (courtesy of Zero Hedge) showing reported payrolls and REVISED payrolls. Somehow, I don’t think Jean Pierre (Biden’s spokesperson, not the French chef) will be touting “Unlike Trump, our administration barely added any jobs in March, April, May and June 2022.

How will this revelation influence the Fed’s open market committee (FOMC) going forward knowing that the Biden Administrations job creation claims are wildly overstated?

Perhaps it doesn’t matter since Bernanke, Yellen and Powell don’t follow any rules (like the Taylor Rule), but generally with job creation almost nonexistant in March through June of 2022, The Fed should be cutting rates like mad. But wait! Can they with significant inflation?

The good news is that inflation is coming off its peak, but will take a while to get to The Fed’s 2% target. Hence The Fed may raise their target rate since they cannot achieve it will energy price up substantially since Biden became President.