US Purchase Mortgage Demand Increased 3% From Previous Week (Pulte’s 50Y And Layaway Mortgages??)

The US mortgage market is “livin’ on a prayer.” As a result, former homebuilder and current FHFA Director Bill Pulter has suggested 2 mortgage products to make US homes more “affordable”, adding to the legacy of stupid government policies to increase homeownership.

But first, current mortgage demand. Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 31 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 147 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Now on to Pulte’s stupid mortgage proposals.

Pulte Doubles Down After 50-Year Backlash, Proposes “Layaway Mortgage”

The 50-year mortgage is a stupid idea. True, it can reduce the monthly mortgage payment by several hundred dollars. But it extends the life of the mortgage from 30 to 50 years, keeping the outstanding mortgage balance elevated for longer, exposing the lender (or mortgage owner) to greater losses in the case of default. Not surprising since the duration risk of a 50-year mortgage is greater than on a 30-year mortgage. Who is going to hold these mortgages??

So, Pulte hearing that the mortgage market thinks this is a stupid idea, introduced another stupid mortgage idea: the “layaway mortgage” where buyers make payments for 5-10 years before they’re allowed to move into the home. This is a variation of “rent to own.”

Under Pulte’s Layaway Mortgage program:

▪️ Buyers select a home and begin making monthly payments immediately
▪️ They continue paying for 5-10 years (the “layaway period”)
▪️ During this time, they cannot live in the home, modify it, or even visit without an appointment
▪️ After the layaway period ends, buyers can move in and begin their 40-year mortgage
▪️ If they miss a payment during layaway, they forfeit everything and the home goes back on the market.

So, in other word, a 50-year mortgage (40+10 layaway).

Note: Japan used to offer 100-year mortgages during their housing bubble, but now 35-year mortgages are more common.

Not Big Mac! Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December By Up 4.0% YoY (Austin Tx Is Down -12.7% From Peak)

No, Freddie Mac is not a new cheeseburger from McDonald’s. Freddie Mac is a government sponsored enterprised (GSE) that purchases residential mortgages from lenders and assists in the bundling of mortgages into mortgage-backed securities (MBS). They also monitor home prices.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in December, up from up 3.9% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023.

But let’s look at the dark side of home prices, which is price declines. Led by Communist enclaved Austin Texas, down -12.7% from peak. The next six cities are all in Florida.

I was watching Varney and Company on Fox Business and it dawned on me that Jonathan Hoenig from Capitalist Pig needs to lay off the caffeine!

Maybe Freddie Mac should partner with McDonald’s. After all, clumsy shooter Angel Reese from WNBA’s Chicago Sky just signed with McDonald’s.

Slow Down? Existing Home Sales Rise YoY For First Time Since July 2021 (Near 2010 Levels, So Barely Rising)

Its a slow down in the housing market.

Existing Home Sales were expected to rebound modestly in October (+2.9% MoM) after dropping for 6 of the last 7 months to the lowest levels since 2010, and they did. Sales rose 3.4% MoM (a beat) but thanks to a downward revision for September from -1.0% to -1.3% MoM. What is most shocking about the shift is that it pushed the YoY change for existing home sales positive (+2.9% YoY) for the first time since July 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

…but in context, that shift up to 3.96mm SAAR homes sold is nothing…

Source: Bloomberg

High borrowing costs have led to a shortage of previously owned homes on the market, discouraging many would-be home sellers from listing their properties for sale and having to part with their current low financing costs.

“Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

“While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”

Last month, the inventory of available homes edged up 0.7% to 1.37 million, continuing to trend higher although well below pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the weakness in sales, tight inventory is keeping prices elevated, yielding one of the least affordable housing markets on record. The median sale price last month increased 4% from a year earlier to $407,200, the highest ever for any October, the NAR figures show.

Contract signings rose in all four US regions, led by a 6.7% jump in the Midwest.

Sales of single-family homes increased 3.5% in October; purchases of condominiums and co-ops were up 2.7%

Finally, while that’s all very exciting – a scintilla of growth off almost record lows – the fecal matter is about to strike the rotating object as rising mortgage rates lagged impact threatens…

Source: Bloomberg

In October, 59% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month, compared with 57% in September, and 19% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 29 days on average, compared with 28 days in the previous month. First-time buyers made up 27% of purchases, still historically low.

Already Gone! Mortgage Applications Rise Since Last Week, But Mortgage Purchase Applications Down -60% Under Biden/Harris

Fortunately, the Biden/Harris administration is winding down. On the mortgage side, the mortgage market is already gone under Biden/Harris where mortgage purchase applications are down a whopping 60%.

Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. And down -60% under Biden/Harris.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Slowing economy, rising rates, too expensive housing. Not a good sign for the mortgage market.

Zero–Down Payment FHA Mortgages Would Be a Cost-Effective Way to Expand First-Time Homeownership … NOT!!!

A recent paper by Michael Stegman, Ted Tozer and Richard Green reminds me of The Who’s song “Won’t Get Fooled Again.” Except that apparently Stegman, Tozer and Green did get fooled again.

I remember testifying in the House of Representatives in Washington DC on the financial crisis and housing markets. I pointed out that low down payment mortgages lending to households with low credit scores was very dangerous. I had the data and presented it to the House committee on financial services.

Fast forward to today. The Urban Institute, a far-left think tank just published a paper by Michael Stegman, Ted Tozer and Richard Green entitled “Zero–Down Payment FHA Mortgages Would Be a Cost-Effective Way to Expand First-Time Homeownership.”

The problem with Stegman et al’s paper is that it ignores The Federal Reserve and Federal spending. After the financial crisis of 2008 when housing prices declined (especially in bubble states like Arizona, Nevada and Florida), Berananke and Yellen adopted a zero interest rate policy that resulted in housing prices rising again. Then we have Powell’s lowering of rates to near-zero following the Covid outbreak and the insane level of Federal spending that ensued helping to drive housing prices to dangerous bubble levels. Making first time homeowner purchases almost impossible.

So, like the 2000s, the pursuit of homeownership will lead to insance policy proposals. If nothing else, the Stegman et al proposal will lead to MORE inflation in housing prices and set the stage for a housing bubble burst of epic proportions.

Apparently, Stegman et al DID get fooled again. Or they just don’t care.

An economist at Freddie Mac wrote a paper saying that credit scores didn’t predict mortgage defaults. LOL!

Bungle In The Economic Jungle! Existing Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low (Lowest Since 2010)

We are in the jungle. And its a bungle in the economic jungle.

Existing home sales disappointed (yet again) in September, declining 1.0% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise). August’s 2.5% MoM drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM drop, but still left existing home sales down 3.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Total sales SAAR dropped to 3.84mm, the lowest since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

Even with the weaker September sales figures, “factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in his ubiquitously optimistic statement.

“There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy.”

First-time buyers made up 26% of purchases, matching an all-time low.

Some 1.39 million homes were for sale in September, up 23% from a year earlier, the NAR report showed. The supply of homes still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

At the current sales pace, available inventory would last 4.3 months, the longest in more than four years.

The median sales price rose 3% in September from a year ago to $404,500.

Around the country, previously owned home sales dropped in three of four regions, including a 1.7% decline in the South to the slowest pace since the start of 2012.

Closings fell 2.2% in the Midwest to a 13-year low, and 4.2% in the Northeast. Sales rose 4.1% in the West, driven by California and Arizona.

While the short-term (lagged) may bring an improvement in existing home sales (based on the lagged impact of declining mortgage rates), as the chart below shows, since The Fed unleashed its rate0cutting cycle, mortgage rates have risen aggressively once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…not a good sign for the housing market’s affordability.

However, inventory problems could persist since “84 percent of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, so the number of sellers that would be financially incentivized to sell would remain limited,” Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at title insurance giant First American Financial Corp. said in the report.

Watch Harris laugh insanely if confronted with this news.

Getting Out Of Dodge! May’s Active Housing Inventory Explodes +27.5% YoY (Denver UP 75.2% YoY)

Gimme two steps to sell my house. Are people getting out of dodge?? Calfornia Gpvernor “Greasy Gavin” Newsom sold his Sacramento home and moved to Marin County for better schools. Sacrramento active housing inventory is up 65.6% YoY.

Active housing inventory in May is up 27.5% YoY nationally, with Denver leading at 75.2% YoY. I highlight Columbus Ohio at +32.9% since that is where I live.

While the government may be able to fake BLS and CPI data to gloss over the fact that 5.5% rates have already likely driven the nation into a deep recession, independent data on the housing market is showing a decades-long shortage in inventory starting to rebound.

A new report from Construction Coverage has revealed where the largest increases in real estate inventory in the U.S. are taking place.

The report notes that the current housing shortage—which is now estimated to be between four million and seven million homes—can trace its beginnings to long before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the 10 years following the Great Recession, the United States constructed fewer new homes than in any other decade since the 1960s.

They write that the lack of housing affects certain areas more severely than others. Researchers ranked locations based on the percentage change in the average monthly housing inventory—the total number of active listings plus pending sales at the end of the month—between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024.

Data from a national level showed that U.S. housing inventory decreased from more than two million in 2012 to a low of approximately 630,000 at the start of 2022.

Over the same period, months’ supply—a measure of how long it would take existing inventory to sell if no new homes came on the market—plummeted from a national high of 7.5 months to a historic low of 1.1 months, the report adds.

It also noted that inventory has rebounded slightly since early 2022: throughout the first quarter of 2024, the national inventory hovered around 970,000 homes for sale, marking a 4.0% year-over-year increase.

Despite this uptick, existing inventory would sustain the current sales pace for just 2.9 months—a marginal increase from the 2.8 months’ supply recorded last year.

The report broke down trends by cities and states, finding that as of the first quarter of 2024, states with the lowest levels of supply are concentrated in and around the Midwest (such as Kansas with 1.5 months of supply) and the Northeast (including Rhode Island with 1.8 months of supply).

However, Washington also stands out for having some of the lowest levels of available housing nationally, with just 1.9 months of supply.

In contrast, several states in the South, led by Florida (5.2 months of supply), along with Hawaii (5.2 months) and Montana (5.1 months), present notably more favorable conditions for buyers.

Among the nation’s largest cities, Denver, El Paso, and Dallas recorded the largest year-over-year increases in housing inventory. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Las Vegas, Raleigh, and Chicago recorded the biggest declines.

The data is hardly a 2008-style collapse, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t noteworthy.

While the ‘turning of the tide’ still remains muted, the housing market is so large it rarely corrects swiftly. It’s important to notice, however, that rising inventory ticking higher – combined with mortgage rates now over 7% – could easily be telegraphing a correction in prices heading into 2025.

Biden’s Wreck Of The US Economy! Mortgage Demand Fell To New 30-year Low In January, Down 54% From Pandemic Peak (Mortgage Demand Down 14% Over Last Year And 40% From Pre-Pandemic Levels)

Yikes! Bidenomics is a disaster! MBA mortgage purchase applications are down 54% from Pandemic Peak. I was going to play “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” by Gordon Lightfoot and rename it “The Wreck of The US Economy.”

Mortgage demand fell to a new 30-year low in January 2024, down 54% from the pandemic peak. Mortgage demand is down 14% over the last year and 40% from pre-pandemic levels.

Mortgage applications decreased 7.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 26, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment to account for the MLK holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 7.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Biden’s Mortgage Market! Mortgage Purchase Demand Falls 0.3% Since Last Week And -12% Since Last Year, Stocks, Bitcoin Booming, Gold Enters Contango (Mortgage Rates UP 172% Under Biden)

Biden says he wants 4 more years to finish the job. Like killing off the mortgage market completely, Joe?

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 10, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Of course, mortgage rates have been declining slightly over the past few weeks, but remain up 172% under Biden.

At least the stock market is booming after the inflation report signalled that The Fed is likely done with rate hikes.

On the gold front, we are seeing evidence of contango.

Bitcoin? Down a wee bit after a staggering rise in price over the past year.

Here is China’s Xi meeting with Biden’s likely replacement, “Greasy Gavin” Newsom and Newsom’s likely Treasury Secretary, Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen. Newsom, Yellen and Xi all want havoc in America.

Living In Biden’s Economy! US Existing Home Sales In April Crash -23.16% Since Last Year, EHS Down -3.4% Since March (Median Price Of EHS Down -2.09% YoY As Inventory Remains MIA)

Living in Biden’s economy. The ongoing train wreck is slow motion.

US existing home sales tanked -23.16% year-over-year (YoY) as the economy slows and The Fed tightens.

On a month-over-month (MoM), existing home sales declined -3.4% in April from March to 4.28 million SAAR.

The median price of existing home sales fell -2.09% from March to April (MoM) as inventory for sales remains depressed.