Let It Ride? Bidenomics Debt Market Meltdown With US Debt On “Unprecedented” Trajectory (Each US Citizen On The Hook For $636k In Unfunded Entitlements)

Part of the Bidenomics “plan” is not only green-energy spending, but plenty of freebies to gather voters from the masses. Like the $214 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities promised to the masses in the form of entitlements like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (why did they demand that all US citizens be forced to buy healthcare insurance, then give free healthcare to illegal immigrants??). In any case, each citizen is on the hook for $636,000!

What about the national debt with Ice Cream Joe at the helm? It has exploded in growth.

Not only has it gotten boring to be ahead of the curve by almost half a year, but pretty much every possible warning that could be said about the exponential increase in the US debt has been – well – said.

And yet, every now and then we are surprised by the latest developments surrounding the unsustainable, exponential trajectory of US debt. Like, for example, the establishment admitting that it is on an unsustainable, exponential trajectory.

That’s precisely what happened overnight when in an interview with the oh so very serious Financial Times (which has done everything in its power to keep its readers out of the best performing asset class of all time, bitcoin), the director of the Congressional Budget Office, Phillip Swagel, issued a stark warning that the United States could suffer a similar market crisis as seen in the United Kingdom 18 months ago, during former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s brief stint leading Britain – which briefly sent yields soaring, sparked a run on the pound, led to an immediate restart of QE by the Bank of England and a bailout of various pension funds, not to mention the almost instant resignation of Truss – citing the nation’s “unprecedented” fiscal trajectory.

The striking words from the head of the CBO, best known perhaps for publishing doomer debt/GDP projection charts such as this one…

… warned of the dangers of the U.S. facing “what the U.K. faced with former prime minister Truss — where policymakers tried to take an action, and then there’s a market reaction to that action”, comes as US government debt continues to break records, fueling concerns about the burden that places on the economy and taking a toll on America’s credit rating.

As a reminder, in September 2022, Truss roiled markets as she pressed for significant tax cuts, including changes lessening the tax burden on wealthier individuals without offsets, as well as other economic measures. The budget proposal spurred a major selloff of British debt, forcing U.K. interest rates to decades-long highs and causing the value of the pound to tank. While Truss defended her agenda as a means to spur economic growth, she stepped down as prime minister after less than two months on the job following the market revolt to her administration.

Meanwhile, it was up to the Bank of England to bail everyone out: the central bank intervened in the market, pledging to buy gilts on “whatever scale is necessary” with Dave Ramsden, a senior official at the central bank, saying at the time that “were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability.”

Needless to say, by bringing up the catastrophic rule of Truss, who for at least a few days tried to impose a regime of fiscal and monetary austerity which immediately blew up the UK bond market and led to an instant market crisis, Swagel is admitting that there is nothing that can be done to reverse the growth of US debt and to make what is already an exponential chart less exponential. Quite the opposite, in fact.

And while Swagel said the U.S. is “not there yet,” he raised concerns of how bond markets could fare as interest rates have climbed. Specifically, he warned that as higher interest rates raise the cost of paying its creditors, on track to reach $1 trillion per year in 2026, bond markets could “snap back.”

Well, we have some bad news, because if one calculates total US interest on an actual, annualized basis… we don’t have to wait until 2026, we are there already and then some.

Indeed, it seems like it was just yesterday when everyone was talking about US debt interest surpassing $1 trillion (and more than all US defense spending). Well, hold on to your hats, because as of this month, total US interest is now $1.1 trillion, and rising by $100 billion every 4 months (we should probably trademark this before everyone else steals it too).

According to the CBO, US government debt is set to keep rising. “Such large and growing debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of US debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook,” it said in a report last week. “It could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices.”

Only that will never happen, because a politician who is “constrained” in their policy choices – one who doesn’t feed the entitlements beast in hopes of winning votes (while generously spreading pork for friends and family) – is a politician who is fired.

Perhaps afraid he would sound too much like ZeroHedge, the CBO director left a glimmer of hope, saying that the nation has “the potential for some changes that seem modest — or maybe start off modest and then get more serious — to have outsized effects on interest rates, and therefore on the fiscal trajectory.” But we doubt even he believes it.

In the CBO’s long-term budget outlook report released last week, the budget agency projected the national deficit would rise “significantly in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5 percent of GDP in 2054.” Which of course, is laughable: the US deficit is already at 6.5% of GDP – a level that traditionally implied there is a major economic crisis – and yet here we are, with unemployment *reportedly* at just 3.8%. Said otherwise, the US deficit will – with 100% certainty – hit 8.5% of GDP during the next recession which will likely be triggered as soon as Trump wins the November election.

The budget scorekeeper attributed the projected growth to rising interest costs, as well as “large and sustained primary deficits, which exclude net outlays for interest.” In short, everything is already going to hell to keep “Bidenomics” afloat, but when you also throw in the interest on the debt, well.. that’s game over man.

Socialists, and other liberals who are only good at spending other people’s money and selling debt until the reserve currency finally breaks, quickly sprung to defense of the debt black hole that the US economy has become.

Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the communist-leaning Center for American Progress think tank, pointed to improved deficit projections in recent years, as well as forecasts from the CBO he said “don’t project anything that looks like a panic.”

“If someone were thinking about, ‘Should I panic or should I not panic?’ I would just say, ‘hey, the underlying situation has gotten better, right?’” Kogan said, adding “there’s been lower, long-term projected deficits in the Biden administration.”

Instead of responding, we will again just show the latest CBO debt forecast chart and leave it up to readers to decide if they should panic or not.

What Kogan said next, however, was chilling: “You either should have been worried a long time ago, or you should be less worried now,” he said. “Because we’ve been on roughly the same path for forever, but to the extent that it’s different, it’s better.”

Actually no, it’s not better. It much, much worse, and the fact that supposedly “serious people” are idiots and make such statements is stunning because, well, these are the people in charge!

But he is certainly right that “you should have been worried a long time ago” – we were very worried, and everyone laughed at us, so we decided – you know what, it’s not worth the effort, may as well sit back and watch it all sink.

And now bitcoin is at a record $72,000 on its way to $1 million and gold is at a record $2,200 also on its way to… pick some nice round number…. in fact the number doesn’t matter if it is denominated in US dollars because very soon, the greenback will go the way of the reichsmark.

And just to make sure that nothing will ever change, even after the US enters the infamous Minsky Moment, shortly after the close we got this headline::

*UNITED STATES AA+ RATING AFFIRMED BY S&P; OUTLOOK STABLE

Because when nobody dares to tell the truth, why should anything change?

When asked about disastrous out of control spending and debt, Biden and Schumer broke into song: “Let it ride!”

Bidenomics, The Key Bridge Collapse And The Collapsing US Mortgage Market (Mortgage Applications Collapse By 16% From Last Year)

The cargo ship craashing into and collapsing the Key bridge in Baltimore is emblematic of Bidenomics: an ongoing wreck. And the mortgage market is the Key bridge collapse over a longer period. Specifically, from the start of Biden’s Regime in 2021.

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Employment in mortgage lending has shrunk along with collapsing mortgage originations under Biden.

Fear The Talking Fed! Global Debt Fast Approaching $100 Trillion As Fed Talks Rate Cuts In Election Year

Fear The Talking Fed!

Back in mid-December, after the Fed’s first, and very shocking, dovish pivot when just two weeks after Powell said it had been “premature” to speculate on rate cuts the Fed suddenly changed its mind (despite very strong economic reports in the interim) and unexpectedly revealed it had been “discussing a timeline to start rate cuts”…

… in the process, sparking the biggest market meltup in a decade, we explained that there was no mystery behind the Fed’s sudden change of heart: it had everything to do with Biden’s woeful performance in the polls.

… maybe what that happened in the past two weeks had nothing to do with economic data, the state of the US consumer, or how hot inflation is running and everything to do with… phone calls from the increasingly angry White House, the same White House which after seeing the latest polling data putting Biden at the biggest disadvantage behind Trump despite the miracle of “Bidenomics” decided to pull its last political level, and had a back room conversation with the Fed Chair, making it very clear that it is in everyone’s best interest if the Fed ends its tightening campaign and informs the market that rate cuts are coming. It certainly would explain why despite keeping the 2026 projected fed funds rate unchanged at 2.875%, the Fed just as unexpectedly decided to pull one full rate cut out of the non-election year 2025 and push it into the pre-election 2024.

Three months later, when Powell again shocked the world with yet another exceedingly dovish press conference, this time pushing the S&P to all time highs as it became increasingly clear the Fed has raised its inflation target to 3% or more, as we first discussed in “There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Terminal Rate To Rise 100bps To 3.5% And More” and as Bloomberg confirmed today in “Powell Ready to Support Job Market Even If Inflation Lingers“, there was again some confusion, most notably from the likes of Jeff Epstein BFF Larry Summers who tweeted:

I don’t know why @federalreserve is in such a hurry to be talking about moving towards the accelerator. We’ve got unemployment, if anything, below what they think is full capacity. We’ve got inflation, even in their forecast, for the next two years above target. We’ve got GDP growth rising if anything faster than potential. We have financial conditions, the holistic measure of monetary policy, at a very loose level.

… to which we again replied that there is a very simple reason why the Fed is “moving toward the accelerator” and it again had to do with the fact that Biden approval rating is now imploding, so much so that even Time magazine has stepped in with an intervention.

But while once upon a time such a cynical, hyperbolic, and apocryphal view would have been relegated to the deep, dark corners of the financial blogosphere (duly shadowbanned and deboosted by the likes of such Democratic party stalwarts as Google, of course), that is no longer the case and in his latest note, SocGen’s in-house permaskeptic, Albert Edwards confirmed our view that the biggest driver behind the Fed’s decision making in recent months is neither the economy, nor the market, but rather the November presidential election, to wit:

The widening inequality chasm in this US election year will be a real issue for policy makers. What will the Fed do? Traditionally, the Fed would not pivot rates policy to cushion inequality, which is usually addressed by fiscal policy. But growing inequality has been a key issue ever since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis triggered a backlash against ‘The Establishment’ – most evident in the rise in popularism (although many, including myself, believe that the loose money/tight fiscal policy mix was primarily responsible).

Might the unfolding inequality crisis force the Fed to bow to intense political pressure to cut rates faster and deeper? I think that is entirely plausible. Indeed we on these pages have previously observed, somewhat cynically, that Powell’s recent ‘surprise’ December 2023 dovish pivot came exactly at a time when Donald Trump was pulling ahead in the polls – link. But it would be a diehard cynic who could contemplate that the Fed, as part of ‘The Establishment’, would balk at the thought of Trump winning in November and juice up the economy to try and lower the odds of such an outcome. (I am that cynic.)

To be fair, we find it remarkable that Edwards – a long-tenured and respected veteran of the SocGen macro commentariat – would confirm our own observations. We doubt he is the only one, of course, but the others are far more afraid of losing their jobs, at least for now.

What we find less remarkable is that Edwards – whose job is to track down gruesome and painful ways for the market to die a miserable death – has done just that again and this time, in the aftermath of the BOJ’s long overdue exit from NIRP, ETF buying and Yield Curve Control, predicts that it is now only a matter of time before the YCC that was spawned in Japan will soon shift to the west.

Edwards starts off by observing what has long been a “foolproof” signal of imminent recession: BOJ tightenging:

Market sentiment is now especially vulnerable to weak economic data because, as we pointed out last week, it seems everyone (and their dog) has left their recessionary worries far behind. But as my favorite bear, David Rosenberg, pointed out this week, recent weak retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production data might be setting us up for a negative US Q1 GDP print. Let’s see how the Fed reacts to that. And if you want one reliable predictor of a global recession, @PeterBerezinBCA notes that “In the history of modern finance, no single indicator has done a better job of predicting when the next global recession will start than when the Bank of Japan starts raising rates. Foolproof!”

He then recaps last week’s main event, namely that after almost a decade, Japan finally exited negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control (YYC), primarily on the back of soaring (nominal, not real) wage gains: “Rengo, Japan’s largest trade union confederation, announced last Friday that its members have so far secured pay deals averaging 5.28%, far outpacing the 3.8% squeezed out a year ago — itself the highest gain in 30 years (see Bloomberg here and SG Economist Jin Kenzaki’s analysis of this data and the BoJ’s move here).“

Of course, the problem in Japan is not that nominal wages are surging: it is that in real terms they are crashing, as the next chart clearly shows, and is why the BOJ will have to dramatically tighten – certainly much, much more than the laughable “dovish hike” it delivered last week which sent the yen plunging to a multi-decade low and inviting even more imported inflation – to avoid total collapse in Japan’s economy as it gradually accelerates toward hyperinflation:

Of course, Japan can not actually tighten as that would instantly vaporize the economy and the bond market of a country whose central bank owns Japanese JGBs accounting for well more than 100% of GDP. But at least Japan has something goign for it: as Edwards notes, “the OCED estimates that interest on US debt amounts to 4½% of GDP, compared to only 0.1% of GDP for Japan (link). Hence the cyclically adjusted primary (ex-interest) deficit data show Japan as the most profligate borrower (see right hand chart). But the US still has to pay that interest somehow.” In other words, when adding interest payment, “it is the US that has been running the largest deficits since the 2008 GFC – bigger than even Japan (see left hand chart).”

Which brings us to Edwards’ punchline: “decades of excessively loose monetary policy has allowed governments to ruin their fiscal situations to the point that public debt to GDP ratios are on wholly unsustainable trajectories. Just look at the CBO’s projections for the US here. Yet with an ever-intensifying populist backlash against high levels of inequality, I can only see one way out of this mess for western economies. Nothing less than Financial Repression including Yield Curve Control – yes, the very same YCC that Japan has just abandoned.”

For those who may not have been around back in the 1940s when the US – and the Federal Reserve – was the first developed nation to utilize YCC to kickstart the US economy at a time of record debt to GDP, here is a quick primer from the SocGen strategist: “Financial Repression essentially entails holding interest rates below the rate of inflation for a lengthy period to allow debt to be ‘burned off’. This is a tried and trusted way for governments to wriggle free from excessive debt (eg the US after WW2). The leading economic historian Russell Napier explained how this works in an informative 2021 interview with The Market NZZ – link.”

And indeed, it was only a few years ago, just before the pandemic sparked a stimulus flood of epic proportions, that western policy makers were switching to average inflation targeting and stating that they would run economies hot to create that higher inflation (they got it but not because of AIT). That was the first notable attempt to shift toward Financial Repression, but as Edwards notes, “unfortunately they were too successful and let the rampant inflation cat out of the bag.”

Which brings up the $64 trillion question: “Do the Fed and ECB really want inflation to return to pre-pandemic inflation lows?” Well, with global debt now about 7x higher in just the 21st century, and fast approaching $100 trillion, meaning it will all have to be inflated away somehow…

… Edwards’ answer is: “Not in my view.” And so while western economists deride Japan for its YCC policies, Albert says “that is where I think the US and Europe are heading as intractable government deficits drive up bond yields. During the next crisis, don’t be surprised to see yet more Japanification of western central bank policy. Plus ça change.” And don’t be surprised if the dollar – while appreciating against the rest of the world’s doomed currencies in the closed fiat-system loop – hyperdevalues against such finite concepts which mercifully remain out of the fiat system, such as gold and crypto.

And wage inflation remains around 5%.

Hey Big Spenders! Broken Money And Neverending Inflation (Inflation STILL At 18%)

Face it. The Federal government is broken. Congress and the Biden Administration are addicted to spending money and running up massive debts. There is no attempt at fiscal restraint because they will always argue that “More money must be spent!” On what exactly? Usually pet projects (aka, pork) like the LGBTQ retirement home in Boston for $850 thousand and $15 million for Egyptian college tuition.

How does “broken money” work? Badly. Without any fiscal restraint, politicians can just give away thousands/millions of dollars to the donor class (donate $1, get $1,000 in return). As you can see, the net worth of the top 0.1% has exploded with each ensuing “crisis.” There was the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the 2008 Covid crisis. With each crisis, the top 0.1% get richer and richer. You will note that net worth for the top 0.1% is closely related to M2 Money printing. Like, who gets the money printed by Uncle Spam? The 0.1%, of course!

Broken money leads people to store their value in sub optimal vehicles like housing. This drives the cost of real estate up unnaturally and increases the gap between the “haves” and the “have nots”. Sowing seeds of animosity. Seeds that, when left to germinate and grow via the further degradation of the money people use, blossom into ugly flowers of Anarcho Tyranny.

This has manifested in the trend of people claiming other’s houses by squatting in them when they are left unattended for an extended period of time. The preferential treatment that has been given to squatters over homeowners in recent years can be seen as the regime which controls the money printers throwing the plebs a bone as they struggle to get by, an attempt to push the productive class to violence against a state unwilling to respect private property rights, or a combination of the two.

Look at inflation if we use pre-1983 methods. Inflation is still roaring at 18%!

Broken money incentivizes governments to allow their borders to be bum rushed by cheap laborers who will take low paying jobs that enable the systemically fragile economy to keep chugging along while simultaneously increasing the chaos that already exists and diluting the values that the natives of this country believe in.

The excess and decadence enabled by a world run on broken easy money allows people to live in a detached reality that leads them to push objectively false narratives. This is why there are running debates about gender and a retreat from merit based compensation.

All of this stems from broken money.

The chart above should act as a reminder to you all that the biggest problem in the world right now is the money. The chart above should also prove to you that the most powerful people throughout the economy are going to fight tooth and nail to protect the broken money because they benefit massively from the fact that it is broken.

Keep this in mind as the chaos increases and narratives begin to form around using bitcoin as money. But we will never see inflation “normalizing” as long as Congress and Biden keep spending money.

Here are 3 of the BIG SPENDERS, Obama, Biden and Insider trader pro Pelosi. Do any of them look like the care about the bottom 50% of net worth or inflation??

Biden, Schumer Fund Border Defense In Spending Bill! Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Oman Get Border Funding, NOT The US (US Falls To 23rd In Global Happiness Ranking)

Biden loves to blame Republicans for the border crisis. Although he has it in his power to close and secure the border, but won’t. It’s easier to blame the opposition, like “extreme MAGA Republicans.” Huh, I didn’t realize that as a conservative American I am considered extreme by the Biden Administration.

Unfortunately, Biden, Schumer and Johnson only provided financial support for Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Oman. In the form of $380 million.

As the US falls to 23rd in World Happiness ranking. Based, in part, on Biden’s idiotic open borders policy.

Pork Barrell Chuck And Gaslight Joe! $60 Million For Ukraine, $0 For US Border Disaster (Purchasing Power Of Dollar Down -16% Under Biden)

Its Pork Barrell Chuck Schumer and Gaslight Joe Biden! Always ready to lie (gaslight) and spend trillions that we don’t have.

A new $1.2 trillion government spending package Congress is trying to ram through faces significant headwinds in the House, where members are expected to vote on it later this morning.

The 1,012-page bill was introduced at around 3am Thursday morning – just 48 hours before a midnight Friday funding deadline. It must pass both the House and the Senate, after which President Biden will sign it (with crayons at the ready, we’re sure).

The package accounts for approximately 70% of discretionary government spending – and consists of six out of twelve total bills that Congress must pass each fiscal year to fund the government. The six others, around $460 billion in spending, were passed earlier this month.

According to Fox News, multiple GOP sources, two GOP lawmakers and one senior GOP aide think the package will pass, but by a tight margin.

On Thursday afternoon, however, the bipartisan deal hit turbulence – with one GOP lawmaker citing absurd pork contained within – including funding for LGBTQ centers and facilities that provide late-term abortions.

Pork City

As usual, Democrats slipped in as much pork as possible, including:– $850k for a gay senior home- $15 million to pay for Egyptian’s college tuitions- $400k for a gay activist group to teach elementary kids about being trans- $500k for a DEI zoo- $400k for a group to gives clothes to teens to help them hide their gender

$60,000,000,000 for Ukraine (of course). NOTHING for US border.

$1,140,000,000,0000 for pork barrelling

1.2 trillion in inflation, an increase of the money supply by 2% in a single spending bill.

The US Dollar’s purchasing power is down -16% under Gaslight Joe.

Too Much Debt (Coping With Bidenflation) And The Downside Of Federal Housing Policies (No Title Searches On Federally-insured Mortgages)

Households have too much debt, thanks to trying to cope with Bidenomics and Bidenflation.

And much of the debt burden falls on the middle class.

Serious auto delinquencies are on the rise.

And lowest earners saw the biggest increase in credit card delinquenices.

And who voters prefer as of today? Trump on interest rates and personal debt.

In addition to the absurd idea of removing title searches for government-guaranteed mortgages (now rely on attorney opinions), the Biden Administration is considering a homebuyer tax credit … that likely won’t help much.

And if you want to see which lenders have the largest concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans, BankOZK takes the cake as the most concentrated lender.

The more the Biden Administration tries to “help” make housing more affordable, paradoxically makes housing even MORE unaffordable.

The Empire Strikes Out! NY General Business Conditions Crashes By -20.9 In March As Industrial Production Slows To -0.23% YoY In February

The Darth Vader theme seems appropriate for President Magoo’s economic malfeasance. Except that Mr. Magoo is a nice person, Biden is a mean-spirited and corrupt.

The NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing crashed and burned in March. NYFRB’s general business conditions index plunged 18.5pts in March to -20.9. A reading below zero indicates contraction, and the measure was weaker than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Hey, I though illegal immigrantion was good for the economy!!!

Industrial production fell tp -0.23 YoY in February, not a stellar sign for the economy.

And how about the yield curve?

Weekly Jobs Reports Doesn’t Capture The Disastrous US Jobs Market (Biden’s “Take This Job And Shove It” Economy)

As Johnny Paycheck sang, “Take This Job And Shove It”. Apparently, we are seeing a number of firms scaling back on their workforce.

As a reminder, in the real world labor market, 2024 has been a shitshow of layoffs…

1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
4. Twig: 100% of workforce
5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
9. Away: 25% of workforce
10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
13. Finder: 17% of workforce
14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
23. Snap: 10% of workforce
24. eBay: 9% of workforce
25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
30. Okta: 7% of workforce
31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
34. EA: 5% of workforce
35. Motional: 5% of workforce
36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
39. UPS: 2% of workforce
40. Nike: 2% of workforce
41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
50. Perrigo: 500 employees

But, according to the government-supplied data…

The number of American filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped to 209k (vs 218k exp) with the NSA number tumbling to 200k…

Source: Bloomberg

How is this possible, you may ask… well let us show you the ways… New York State claims that its jobless benefits rolls collapsed last week. New York accounted for 99.75% of the weekly change in initial claims across the entire US as shown below…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims was a shit show – with a massive 112k person downward revision for last week from 1.906 million to 1.794mm. That is the 5th straight weekly downward revision of continuing claims…

Source: Bloomberg

But thanks to the adjustments, it all looks ‘normal’ and ‘stable’ at around 1.8 million Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

And WARN numbers are rising rapidly…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, if you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin’s data, here’s what the most recent FOMC Minutes said:

“While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”

Even they aren’t buying it, and neither should you!

Biden’s $7.3 TRILLION Budget Is DOA In House, Massive Tax Increases Proposed So Biden Can Spend Even MORE Money (Federal Deficit Expected To Explode To $16 TRILLION Over Next Decade)

Every little thing Biden touches turns into disaster. Like the Federal Budget(consider it the fiscal version of the Afghanistan withdrawal).

Following yesterday’s release of Biden’s $7.3 trillion budget, the Biden administration bragged about lowering the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade – an average of 0.8% of GDP over that period.

This would consist of roughly $2.6 trillion over 10 years in additional spending programs, offset by around $4.8 trillion in tax increases over the same period. Most of the tax and spending proposals have been included in prior budget proposals from the White House, according to Goldman’s Alec Phillips, however there are several new items.

The budget would increase the corporate alternative minimum tax on book income from 15% to 21%, raising $137 billion over the next decade. It also limits a corporation’s ability to deduct employee pay exceeding $1mm/year, raising $272 billion over 10 years. The largest proposed tax increases include; raising the corporate minimum tax from 21% to 28%, as well as a series of tax increases on high-income earners, including new Medicare taxes, and a new 25% minimum tax on incomes over $100 million, raising $500 billion over the next decade.

Of course, it has zero chance of passing under the current Congress – but that’s not the point.

As one DC strategist wrote in a morning email noted by CNBC‘s Brian Sullivan, the budget deficit will still grow by another $16 trillion over the next decade – and that’s with aforementioned tax hikes.

Without them, the deficit grows to $19 trillion.

In short, talk of ‘$3 trillion saved’ is total bullshit in the grand scheme of things, given how much the national debt will grow in the best case scenario.

“No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math,” says Sullivan.

Yes Brian, no family budget could exist with this kind of math AND SPENDING!

And the national debt is rising by $1 TRILLION every 100 days. Before Spending Joe’s budget!

Go back to sleep Joe. Yellen will wake you up if something important happens. Like the US defaults on its debt.