Too Much Debt! US Government And Consumers Are Debt Crazed (US Debt Hits $34.8 TRILLION, Consumer Debt Hits $17.69 TRILLION, Unfunded Liabilities Hits $216 TRILLION)

Too much debt should be the theme song for the US! Both for consumers and the Feral government (not a typo!)

Consumer credit increased by +$6.403 billion in April, much softer than consensus estimate of +$10 billion … more notable, however, was March data, given initial read of +$6.274 billion was revised down to -$1.099 billion.

Not to mention $13 trillion in mortgage debt (1-4 unit housing), but at least that is backed by property. Unlike The Feral government who borrows/prints with only a promise.

Consumer Debt Hits $17.69 TRILLION.

US national debt stands at $34.8+ trillion.

And growing awfully fast. Note that since the “pandamic”, debt as % of GDP has exceeded 100% and is projected to hit 166% by 2054. But look at the UNFUNDED LIABILITIES the need to be paid ($216+ TRILLION ($641.5k per citizen!). Pretty soon, we (the 99%) will be back on the chain gang paying for endless wars and government corruption. I wish Biden, Schumer, McConnell and other swamp creatures would consider all the spending the government is on the hook for rather than focus on spending that will help them get elected perpetually. There is no middle of the road anymore. The US is broke and has too much debt.

Of course, President Biden wants endless spending on wars (Ukraine, Israel, etc) and now wants an unlimited check to pay for the next pandemics. The Pretenders’ song “My City Was Gone” seems to be appropriate for the US as “My County Is Gone.”

Of course, some “economists” claim that the US can borrow/print unlimited amounts of money … until they can’t.

The Wreck Of The US Middle Class: America’s Paychecks Bigger Than 40 Years Ago, But Purchasing Power About The Same (Credit Card Delinquencies Highest Since 1991)

Under Bidenomics and Fed monetary “policies”, we now have the wreck of the US middle class.

To begin with, America’s paychecks are bigger than 40 years ago, but purchasing power of those larger paychecks is about the sames as it was 40 years ago. Great job Washington DC!!! … NOT!!!!

Meanwhile, credit card delinquencies are at the highest level since 1991.

Americans are feeling extreme financial stress.

Coping with Bidennomics and The Fed has been most difficult. Especially if you listened to Biden’s D-Day speech (almost stolen word-for-word from a Ronald Reagan speech).

Demented Joe Biden being led by the hand by his money-grubbing wife. “Joe, you will be here soon!”

ZERO INCREASE In Jobs For Native-born Workers In Over Five Years! (Native-born Workers Lost 463k Jobs In May 2024 While Foreign-born Workers Gained 414k Jobs)

The theme song for the Biden Administration should be “South of The Border.”

Biden’s open borders policies are like something out of the book/film “Gangs of New York.” This time it isn’t Irish immigrants that are rioting/looting, it iis illegal immigrants from Latin America, China, and the Middle East. Essentially replacing native-born workers with foreign-born workers.

Since COVID, the growth in foreign-born workers have blow away the growth in native-born workers. So much so that since 2019, native-born workers have actually lost jobs while foreign-born workers have surged.

But for May 2024, native-born workers lost 463k jobs while foreign-born gained 414k jobs.

In May, part-time jobs soared by 286k jobs while full-time jobs nosedived by -625k jobs.

Finally, the difference between the BLS survey and the more accurate Household Survey is huge!

Going Down! Economic Surprise Index Slumps In Election Year To Lowest Under Bidenomics (Economic Confidence Has Been TERRIBLE Under Biden)

The US economy is going down.

2024 hasn’t been a good year for Bidenomics. The Economic Surprise Index is falling to its lowest point in years.

The economic confidence index has been terrible since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Ecoomic Error.

We need to give Biden the hook!’

And I don’t want The Lizard Queen either.

Boom, Boom! ATL Fed Nowcast Plunges To 1.8% As Consumer Spending Estimate Collapses (Real Estate Construction Spending Leads Collapse In GDP)

Boom boom!

ATL Fed Nowcast plunges to 1.8% as their consumer spending estimate collapses – less than 3 weeks ago, they were forecasting 4.2% growth for Q2; a recession likely began in April.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.8 percent on June 3, down from 2.7 percent on May 31. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts for annualized second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent.

fff

Since I used The Animal’s version of the John Lee Hooker great tune “Boom Boom,” I will use another Animals tune for Joe Biden’s penchant for sniffing little girls. “Baby Let Me Take You Home.”

The Animals band. Not to be confused with the animals in the Biden Administration and Congress.

Job openings in April 2024 dipped to 8,059. Notice the trend (orange line) is below the trend set prior to Covid (red line).

Krugman’s Grossly Misleading Inflation Victory Declaration … BUT Purchasing Power Of US Dollar Is Down -16.5% Under Biden (Food Prices UP 21%, Home Prices UP 34%, Used Car/Truck Prices UP 17.7%)

Call it Washington DC soullessness.

Back in 2023, Socialist Paul Krugman declared that “the war on inflation is over!!! “We” won, at very little cost.” I love when elitists claim “We won!” since clearly 99% of Americans lost since food, housing and car prices up are double digits under Biden.

The problem is that food, energy, shelter, and used cars/trucks are a huge part of Americans consumption basket.

Under Biden, food CPI is up 23%. Home prices are up 34% and used cars/truck prices are up 17.7%.

A note to Paul Krugman, YOU may have won, but the rest of Americans lost. Consumer purchasing power of the US Dollar is DOWN 16.5% Under Biden.

Here is where we stand under Bidenomics.

Ask Joe if he cares.

Chicago PMI Screams RECESSION! Falls To Cycle Low Of 35.4, Back To 2008 Recession Levels (Copper Prices Rising!)

Not so Sweet Home Chicago!

After unexpectedly slumping last month to 37.9, the Chicago PMI index cratered even more unexpectedly in May, when it defied hopes of a rebound to 41.5, and instead tumbled even more, sliding to a cycle low of 35.4 which was not only below the lowest estimate, but was staggeringly low. To get a sense of just how low, the last two times it printed here was during the peak of the covid and global financial crises…

… which seems to suggest that at least according to Chicago-based purchasing managers, the economy is in a depression.

This is how the final number looked relative to expectations.

Looking at the report we find the following:

Business barometer fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

Did nothing rise? One thing did:

Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

So we have not just a depression, but a stagflationary depression in which everything else is going to hell, except prices: they keep on rising.

And while it is unclear what has prompted this unprecedented bearishness (the surely negative contribution from Boeing is likely to blame for a substantial portion of the apocalyptic outlook), one thing is certain: Goldman will have to come up with even more goalseeked surveys that explain away reality and tell us how purchasing managers really should feel…

On the good news front, REAL Gross Domester Income rose to 1.5%.

As copper prices keep on rising. Which is bad news for Biden’s shift to EVs! (Once again, Biden is driven around in gas guzzling Chevy Tahoes/Suburbans and owns a Chevy Corvette). There isn’t enough copper production to build the EVs that Biden wants.

Biden drove his Chevy to the STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE and the reserve was dry. And them good old Democrats were drinkin’ whiskey and rye after a New York Jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, despite there not being any laws broken.

I have testified and sat through many trials in New York city and have never seen a court case quite like the one the Trump lost with the Judge effectively telling the jury to find Trump guilty.

US Pending Home Sales Plunge To Record Lows In April As Rates Rose (After Terrible Mortgage Report)

With the terrible mortgage applications index from Wednedsay, we are seeing US pending home sales crashiing. As Joe Biden handles the economy his way.

After an unexpected jump in March, pending home sales were expected to drop 1.0% MoM in April as mortgage rates pushed back above 7.00% and stayed there.

Well, the analysts had the direction right but magnitude was way off as pending home sales plunged 7.7% MoM – the biggest drop since Feb 2021 (and below the lowest estimate), leaving sales down 0.7% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 29th straight month of YoY declines for non-seasonally-adjusted pending home sales.

This MoM decline pushed the Pending Home Sales Index back to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The Midwest saw the biggest drop in pending sales, down 9.5% in April, followed by declines of 8.5% and 7.6% in the West and South, respectively. Contract signings in the Northeast fell 3.5%.

“The impact of escalating interest rates throughout April dampened home buying, even with more inventory in the market,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“But the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut later this year should lead to better conditions, with improved affordability and more supply.”

All driven by affordability crisis as mortgage rates surged back above 7.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

“The prospect of measurable home price declines appears minimal,” Yun said.

“The few markets experiencing price declines will be viewed as second-chance opportunities for buyers to enter the market if those regions continue to add jobs.”

As a reminder, the pending-sales report tends to be a leading indicator of sales of previously owned homes, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Simply Unaffordable? US Home Prices Reached New Record High In March, Despite Soaring Mortgage Rates (Home Prices UP 34.5% Under Biden, Mortgage Rate 157%)

Housing in the US is simply unaffordable. Home prices in Biden’s America are up 34.5% even though mortgage rates are up 157%.

Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 13th straight month in March (according to the latest data from S&P CoreLogic – Case Shiller – data today), up 0.33% (more than the expected 0.3%) with the 0.61% MoM gain In Febriary revised down to +0.55% MoM.

Source: Bloomberg

This pushed the price up 7.38% YoY – the fastest rise since October 2022…

“We’ve witnessed records repeatedly break in both stock and housing markets over the past year. Our National Index has reached new highs in six of the last 12 months.” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Overall, US home prices reached a new record high in March (as median new home prices began to fall)…

Source: Bloomberg

San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities this month with an 11.1% increase in March, followed by New York and Cleveland, with increases of 9.2% and 8.8%, respectively.

Portland, which still holds the lowest rank after reporting three consecutive months of the smallest year-over-year growth, posted the same 2.2% annual increase in March as the previous month.

Luke suggested this implies “a strong demand for urban markets.”

No city has seen a MoM decline in price in 2024.

Home prices continue to track Fed Reserves closely, but a turning point may come soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Given the smoothing and heavy lag in the Case-Shiller data, it’s hard to find a causal relationship between prices and mortgage rates…

Source: Bloomberg

…but with rates remaining above 7%, it seems hard to believe prices can continue their advance.

Who the heck is HUD Secretary? It was Cleveland’s Marcia Fudge (a typical Biden political appointment). Now it is Adrianne Todman, from the US Virgin Islands and former executive director of the District of Columbia Housing Authority. Not exactly a high-powered resume for a cabinet post, Joe!

Economic Surprise Index Falls To -0.126 As Buying Conditions For Housing Remains Negative For Most Of Biden’s Presidency (US Debt Servicing Costs 12% Of Government Spending)

I saw former President Obama criticizing former President Trump for not passing “transformative” changes. That is, Trump didn’t sign any Obama-like transformative changes (like Obamacare). Truimp did try to slow down the damage done by Obama and his transformative agenda (e.g., open borders, wealth redistritution, green energy) that Biden has attempted to continue.

As we approach the party conventions and Presidential election of 2024, we saw the Economic Surprise Index (ESI) in May decline to -0.126.

Coupled with Biden’s negative buying conditions for housing (higher mortgage rates and soaring house prices), Obama’s Jacobian transformative economic fantasty is on thin ice.