Bailout Part Deux? Prepare For “Very Ugly” Two Years Of CRE Turmoil With $2.5 Trillion In CRE Debt Maturing In Next 5 Years

Remember the massive bank bailout of “subprime” mortgage securities back that resulted in the Dodd-Frank banking legislation of 2010? Yes know, where they promised NO MORE BANK BAILOUTS EVER??? Particularly if Disease X is unleashed and we start shutting down economies and schools again. Will we see ANOTHER bank bailout??

Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick spoke with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on the sidelines at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. He offered a bleak outlook on the commercial real estate sector, warning a “very ugly” two years is ahead. 

“Coming due in the next two and a half years at these higher rates – you’re not going to get proceeds, meaning when you have a $120 million loan on a building, and someone says I’ll give you 90 million at a much higher rate – than it throws the keys back to the lenders – and there’s going to be a lot of them that are going to get wiped out,” Lutnick told Bartiromo.

“I think $700 billion could default … The lenders are going to have to do things with them. They’re going to be selling. It’s going to be a generational change in real estate coming at the end of 2024 and all of 2025. We will be talking about real estate being just a massive change,” Lutnick said.

He warned: “I think it’s going to be a very, very ugly market in owning real estate over the next, you know, 18 months, two years.” 

Lutnick noted that loan sales are set to become a major business opportunity with the upcoming maturity of CRE mortgages. He highlighted that an estimated trillion dollars of CRE debt is coming due over the next 2.5 years.  

Shortly after the regional bank implosion in March 2023, Morgan Stanley penned a note to clients about a $2.5 trillion wall of CRE debt coming due over five years. 

A recent survey of Terminal users by Bloomberg’s Markets Live found most respondents believe the office tower market needs a deeper correction before a rebound materializes. 

Lutnick pointed out, “Real estate equity, REITS, are going to be in trouble … a lot of them are going to be wiped out, so many defaults, I think.” 

Bloomberg office REITs have been plunging since early 2022 when the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in a generation to tame inflation. 

“Commercial real estate is experiencing a meaningful repricing as cap rates correlate to long-term to interest rates,” Morgan Stanley told clients in a recent report, adding, “Patience is required while refinancing to higher debt costs gradually triggers valuation adjustments.” 

Lutnick’s not the only one with a dismal outlook on CRE. 

In a recent interview, Scott Rechler, Chairman and CEO of RXR Realty, told Goldman’s Allison Nathan that the CRE downturn is still in the early innings

Bleeding Economic Indicator? Conference Board LEI Fell 0.1% In December, Down -6.9% YoY (Annual Growth Rate Remains DEEPLY Negative)

Not exactly the economic report that the Biden Administration and The Federal Reserve were hoping for. To quote The Rolling Stones, “You can’t always get what you want.” Actually, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is more of a BLEEDING economic indicator as we enter 2024.

NEW YORK, Jan. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.

“The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”

The annual growth rate of the LEI remains deeply negative.

On an annual basis (YoY), the LEI is down -6.9%.

Am I surprised that the LEI is bleeding so badly? Not with “Vacation Joe” Biden at the helm! Or his eloquent Climate Envoy John Kerry!

The Bidenomics Roadmap! Existing Home Sales (4.09 million) Drop To Lowest Level Since 1995 (Lowest SAAR Since 2010)

American homebuyers are going down the road of Bidenomics and feeling bad. Is this the roadmap for the US??

Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% MoM in December, worse than the +0.3% expected, leaving sales down

Source: Bloomberg

Total Existing Home Sales in December 2023 were 3.78mm – the lowest SAAR since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

But, on an annual basis, this is the worst year on record (back to at least 1995)..

Source: Bloomberg

“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”

Existing Home Sales were flat in the Northeast, lower in the MidWest and the South, and up marginally in the West (driven by single-family-home sales as condo sales declined)…

Source: Bloomberg

Last month, the number of previously owned homes for sale dropped to 1 million, the lowest since March.

At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 3.2 months.

Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight resale market.

That lack of inventory is helping to keep prices elevated.

The median selling price climbed 4.4% to $382,600 in December from a year ago, reflecting increases in all four regions. Prices hit a record of $389,800 in 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

But, with mortgage rates having tumbled (and given the lagged responses), are sales about to start rising again?

Source: Bloomberg

So The Fed managed to kill sales, collapse inventories, send home prices higher, destroying affordability… and now what is going to happen?

Is Bidenomics the Highway To Hell?

Who designed this photoshoot for an accordian band?? Not sure I want to have a party with this crew!

Biden Brags About Mortgage Rates Dropping In 2024 (Inside Info On Disease X?? Or Admission That The Economy Actually Sucks)

As only Clueless Joe can do, Biden brags about something that he has nothing to do with: falling mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates (30-year conforming rate) are up 392 basis points or a whopping 142% under Biden. Mortgage rates are down from the 2023 peak of 7.83% to 6.69% as of yesterday. One reason that mortgage rates are stable is that M2 Money GROWTH has been negative since the end of 2022.

Of course, it is The Federal Reserve acting to slow down inflation caused by excessive Federal government spending that is leading to mortgage rates declining, not Biden’s open border policy or his green agenda.

But for the future, does Biden know something that we don’t know? Like is Biden buying into the hypothetical Disease X (20 times worse than Covid) that was discussed in Davos at the World Economic Forum. If a major pandemic is unleashed (again) in the election year, The Fed would have to cut rates (again) to offset the damage done by another round of goverment economic shutdowns. Not to mention the shutting down of schools again.

Or did Biden just tell us that he knows the US economy is slipping and The Fed will come riding to the rescue of Biden (or Newsom or Michelle Obama) like in an old John Ford western with John Wayne. That would also lead to declining mortgage rates in 2024.

But all is not well in the banking sector. Use of Fed funding tool jumps most since April to fresh record: Banks borrowed record sum of $161.5bn from Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program, w/demand at $14.3bn climbing the most in 9 months as they piled into a reliable arbitrage trade just weeks ahead of its scheduled closure.

The availability of mortgage credit remains VERY TIGHT.

Whether its Disease X (unleashed The Kraken!) or just a slowing economy, The Fed (the master manipulator) will likely cut rates in 2024. Making mortgage rates come down.

And what is a dancing sandwich??

Not Always Sunny! Dis-Inflation & Disappointment For Philly Fed Survey In January (-10.6, Worse Than Expected)

It’s not always sunny in Philadelphia! And not because the Eagles got stomped by Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region continued to decline in January (for the 18th month of the last 20). The headline Philly Fed survey printed -10.6 (worse than the -6.5 expected) and apart from the insane outlier spike in August, this indicator screams recession…

Source: Bloomberg

More worrying is the fact that hope appears to be dwindling fast as the six-month-forecast for the survey plunged back into contraction (from +12.6 to -4.00)…

Source: Bloomberg

Philly Fed’s demise is consistent with the collapse of hope as ‘soft’ survey data has slumped in the last month, back to its weakest since July (as ‘hard’ data improves relative to expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side for the doves, the dis-inflationary trend remains in tact as priced paid and prices received both plunged in January. However, we highlight the fact that Philly businesses expect price pressure to return in the next six months…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the ‘bad news’ in this report should buoy stocks and bonds (lower inflation and lower growth enables sooner and faster cuts)… But will it.

Green man (The Federal Reserve) will stike again!

WTF are dancing sandwiches??

The Bidenomics Plunge! Single-Family Home-Starts Plunged In December (But Permits UP)

While the Nestea plunge was meant to be refreshing, the housing starts plunge is not refreshing at all. Just another warning about the shortcomings of Bidenomics.

Despite mortgage rates having tumbled (relatively-speaking), and homebuilder sentiment picking back up post-Fed-pivot, expectations were for a plunge back to reality for Housing Starts in December after November’s unexpected surge. Permits were expected to rise only very modestly.

Analysts were right in direction but wrong in magnitude – too bearish. Housing starts declined 4.3% MoM (vs -8.7% MoM exp and +10.8% MoM in November, a big downward revision from the initial +14.8% MoM). Building permits also rose more than expected (+1.9% MoM vs +0.6% exp but saw November’s 2.5% MoM decline upwardly revised to -2.1% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

On a SAAR basis, Housing Starts and Building Permits are higher YoY

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, single-family permits rose for the 12th month in a row (i.e. every month in 2023) but single-family home starts plunged 8.6% MoM after surging 15.4% MoM in November… that is the biggest monthly decline since July 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps the optimism among homebuilders about future sales is a little overdone given their actions?

Source: Bloomberg

And why would starts be down so much if rates are tumbling?

Source: Bloomberg

Still along way to go for mortgages to be affordable…

Source: Bloomberg

Will less supply of new homes do anything to help the Shelter component of CPI (hint – no!).

Biden In Wonderland! Savings As Percentage Of GDP Goes Negative As Consumer Still Cope With Inflation Of Over 4.50% (But At Least Yield Curve Is Normalizing!)

President Biden still shuffles around mumbling about Maga Republicans and defending democracy (while gettig his DOJ and affiliates to prosecute his leading Presidential opponent) even though …. consumers continue to struggle. While Biden is in wonderland, American consumers are in hell.

Savings as a percentage of GDP is actually NEGATIVE as sticky price inflation remains above 4%.

Any good news? At least the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-5Y) is normalizing.

How true!

Speaking of Biden, is this photo real? With AI, I wonder.

Fed Better Think Twice About Rate Cuts! 10-year Treasury Yield Surges To 4.10% After Strong Dec Retail Sales (Consumers Win, Fed/Treasury Lose)

The Fed had better think twice about expected rate cuts. The market just isn’t feeling it.

Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.10% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at 4.108% after briefly getting to 4.117%, the highest since Dec. 13. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by around 11 basis points to trade at 4.335%.

December’s retail sales data indicated strong consumer demand at the holidays. Retail sales increased 0.6% for the month, above economists’ estimates of 0.4%, as compiled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%, which also topped a 0.2% estimate.

On Tuesday, yields jumped after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested that while the central bank will likely cut rates this year, it may take its time.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, more European Central Bank members indicated that markets were getting ahead of themselves on rate cut projections.

The president of the Dutch central bank, Klaas Knot, told CNBC Wednesday that the euro zone’s central bank looked at overall financial conditions, and that “the more easing the market has already done for us, the less likely we will cut rates.” Knot was referring to the fact that higher stock and bond prices in the fourth quarter of last year acted as the equivalent of easier interest rate policy, while lower prices act as the equivalent of tighter policy.

Rising interest rates are going to bite a big chunk out of The Fed’s massive ass (I mean balance sheet). Of course, The Fed sends the bill to Treasury. Gee, no wonder Biden/Yellen want so much money!

There is something wrong with letting aging politicians like Biden (81), Grassley (90), Pelosi (83), etc. borrow vast sums of money to spend when they will likely not be around for another 10 years.

Debt Star! Massive Money-Printing Will Accelerate As Debt Soars ($34 Trillion In Current Federal Debt And $212 Trillion In Promises To The 99% Will Require LOTS Of Money Printing!!)

Biden and Congress continue their massive spending spree, mostly on themselves and their donors, creating a massive Debt Star capable of unfathomable economic destruction. This will require massive money printing to fund the US Debt Star.

But as of today, M2 Money growth is negative as is bank credit growth.

But all this is about to change.

The U.S. federal government published a December deficit of $129 billion, up 52% from the previous year. The private sector recession is clear as expenses continue to rise while tax receipts decline. If we look at the period between October and December 2023, the deficit ballooned to a staggering $510 billion.

You may remember that the Biden administration expected a significant deficit reduction from its tax increases and the expected benefits of its Inflation Reduction Act.

What Americans got was a massive deficit and persistent inflation.

According to Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, the entire disinflation process seen in the past years comes from exogenous factors such as “fading fallout from the global pandemic on global supply chains and labor markets, and the Russian War in Ukraine and the impact on oil, food, and other commodity prices.” The complete disinflation trend follows the slump in money supply (M2), but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should have fallen faster if deficit spending, which means more consumption of newly created currency, would have been under control. December was disappointing and higher than it should have been.

The United States annual CPI (+3.4%) came above estimates, proving that the recent bounce in money supply and rising deficit spending continue to erode the purchasing power of the currency and that the base effect generated too much optimism in the past two prints. Most prices rose in December, and only four items fell. In fact, despite a large decline in energy prices, annual services (+5.3%), shelter (+6.2%), and transportation services (+9.7%) continue to show the extent of the inflation problem.

The massive deficit means more taxes, more inflation, and lower growth in the future.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects an unsustainable path that still leaves a 5.0% deficit by 2027, growing every year to reach a massive 10.0% of GDP in 2053 due to a much faster growth in spending than in revenues. The enormous increase in debt will also lead to extremely poor growth, with real GDP rising much slower throughout the 2023–2053 period than it has, on average, “over the past 30 years.”

Deficits are not a tool for growth; they are tools for stagnation.

Deficits mean that the currency’s purchasing power will continue to vanish with money printing and that the real disposable income of Americans will be demolished with a combination of higher taxes and a weaker real value of their wages and deposit savings.

We must remember that, in Biden’s administration’s own estimates, the accumulated deficit will reach $14 trillion in the period to 2032.

Yes, the US has $34 trillion in national debt and $212 trillion in promises made to keep the 99% quiet while the 1% gut the economy for their own wealth. Think Biden, Clintons, and various Congress Critters who suddenly become millionaires.

The Debt Star was born under Obama and weaponized under Biden/Pelosi/Schumer.

Yes, national debt rose under Trump too. Bear in mind that spending originates in The House and Trump was saddled with warhawks like RINO Paul Ryan and insider trading expert and warhawk Nancy Pelosi.

The Empire Strikes Out! Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Suffers Biggest 2-Month Collapse (Ex-COVID) In History

The themesong for Bidenomics is the Imperial March from Star Wars.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January crashed from -14.5 to -43.7 – the worst print in the survey’s history outside of the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

This chart show employees crashing by -6.9.

The -43.7 print was a stunning 10 standard deviations below expectations of a bounce to -5.0…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was a bloodbath. New orders slumped more than 38 points to minus 49.4, the weakest since April 2020, while shipments dropped by the most since August. Worse still, the index of prices paid for materials increased to a three-month high.

But hope remains high as the six-month outlook for overall activity improved to a three-month high, suggesting manufacturing will stabilize at a weak level. The measure of the outlook for capital expenditures increased to the highest since April 2023, suggesting a pickup in investment.

However, the spread between current reality and a hopeful future is at near record highs (record Ex-COVID-lockdowns)…

“Bidenomics” for the win…