The Garbageman: Fed Rate Hikes Will Intensify Global Debt Crisis (NOW They Realize That Low-Rate Debt Is A Problem If Rates Rise??)

CNBC had an interesting Homer Simpson-moment when the Jubilee Debt Campaign suddenly realized that there was enormous debt outstanding, fueled by Central Banks and governments. They are only now realizing that Central Bank zero-interest rate policies leading to massive debt issuance may be a problem??

Interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are likely to worsen a global debt crisis, particularly for developing countries, according to a new report from U.K. non-profit the Jubilee Debt Campaign.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week to decide the path for its tightening of monetary policy as it looks to contain soaring inflation. Some analysts are expecting the central bank to hike rates four times from their pandemic-era lows in 2022.

In a report published Sunday, the Jubilee Debt Campaign highlighted that developing countries’ debt payments rose 120% between 2010 and 2021, and are currently at their highest since 2001. The average portion of government revenues channeled toward external debt payments increased from 6.8% in 2010 to 14.3% in 2021, with payments shooting up in 2020.

The sharp increase in debt payments is hindering countries’ economic recovery from the pandemic, the report suggested, and rising U.S. and global interest rates in 2022 could exacerbate the problem for many lower income countries.

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said last week that Fed rate hikes could “throw cold water” on already weak recoveries in certain countries. Higher U.S. interest rates, and thus a rise in the greenback, could make it more expensive for countries to meet their dollar-denominated debt obligations.

“The debt crisis continues to engulf lower income countries, with no end in sight unless there is urgent action on debt relief,” said Heidi Chow, executive director of the Jubilee Debt Campaign.

“The debt crisis has already stripped countries of the resources needed to tackle the climate emergency and the continued disruption from Covid, while rising interest rates threaten to sink countries in even more debt.”

Chow called on G-20 leaders to stop “burying their heads in the sand” and argued that the global economy urgently needs a “comprehensive debt cancellation scheme which compels private lenders to take part in debt relief.”

Austin, Texas musician Cornell Hurd has a song that nicely summarizes Central Banks like the US Federal Reserve: The Garbageman.

You ask me what I do for a living,

You’re trying to get a feeling on how I’m fixed for cash.

My friends all say I’m a just garbageman, baby

I’m out in this honkeytonk market, picking up trash.

Today we may see The Federal Reserve raise their target rate (slightly) to measure how bad markets will receive the news.

The Garbageman, Jay Powell.

US Home Price Growth “Slows” To 18.81% YoY With Phoenix AZ At 32.2% (Simply Unaffordable!)

Happenings two months ago. The Case-Shiller home price index is out for … November 2021.

The Case-Shiller National home price index “slowed” to 18.81% YoY in November as The Fed continues its monetary stimulypto. Notice that The Fed is easing even when there is limited inventory available. Result? Hideous home price inflation.

Which metro area is growing the fastest, making housing even more unaffordable for renters? Phoenix AZ is growing at a 32.2% YoY clip while Washington DC is the slowest growing metro area at 11.1% YoY. The second faster growing metro area in Tampa FLA.

Phoenix AZ is growing at the fastest rate in the nation as The Fed still has its monetary stimulus at FULL SPEED AHEAD.

Let’s see if Fed Chair Powell decides to raise rates and let the Fed’s balance sheet run-off.

The Market Has Never Plunged 10% This Fast To Start A Year (But We’ve Had Biden As President For A Year!)

The stock market has never started a year falling as quickly as it is now. 

The S&P 500 has dropped 11% — heading into correction territory — in the first 16 trading days of 2022 in its worst-ever start to a year, according to Bloomberg data that goes back over nine decades. 

The downturn comes as traders brace for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields weighs on the outlook for stocks. A host of technical signals also suggest that more volatility may be coming up ahead. 

S&P 500's 11% drop in first 16 days is worst of all years
  

“The Fed pulled the punchbowl, liquidity has evaporated, and the S&P and NDX broke below their 200dma for the first time since the Covid outbreak,” said Rich Ross, technical strategist at Evercore ISI. 

A bear market down to the 3,800 level is likely for the S&P 500, Ross said, given “the dramatic erosion of the technical backdrop, in conjunction with the highest inflation, tightest policy, and most uncertain political and geopolitical condition in years” — not to mention its historic rally since 2020.

The Shiller CAPE ratio is extremely high …. not surprising how much air The Fed pumped into the market tires.

But look at Europe too!

Bubble Burst? NASDAQ, WTI Crude Futures And Bitcoin All DOWN On Opening (Europe Stoxx Down 4%)

Is this the bubble burst many were expecting once The Federal Reserve starting raising rates?

Well, if today’s market opening is an indication, the answer is yes. The NASDAQ Composite Index is down 1.36% and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures prices are down 2%.

The S&P 500 index is down over 10% since January 3rd.

Drawdown is taking place.

But if you think the US equities are deflating, look at European equities. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 4.04%.

Is this a Don Ho “Tiny Bubble” burst? Or a slow deflation of asset prices as The Fed removes its stimulus?

Bitcoin/Ethereum/Dow Slide As Gold Rebounds (Fun Times As $3.3 Trillion Options Expire)

Yes, it is fun times in markets this Friday as $3.3 trillion in options expire.

As of 9:52am EST, we see Bitcoin (white) and Ethereum (blue) falling along with the Dow (pink), while gold (gold) fell then rebounded.

European stock markets are down 2% today.

Global sovereign bond prices are up across the board internationally as yields decline.

Crude oil is down today while natural gas is soaring. In particular, look at UK natural gas prices!

Brrr.

The Nervous 19! Nineteen European Nations Have Negative 2Y Sovereign Yields (Only One Rate Increase Expected In 2022, ECB’s Stiff Monetary Policy)

Let’s see how The Federal Reserve is going to compete with other central banks when 19 European nations have negative 2-year sovereign yields. Call them the “Nervous 19.” Note that France has the lowest 2Y yield of the big 3 (France -0.664%, Germany -0.593% and Italy -0.092%).

True, The Fed’s reaction to COVID shutdowns was more extreme than the ECB’s reaction.

The ECB’s main refinancing rate is 0% and The Fed’s target rate is 0.25%.

Unlike the US with its 4 expected rate increases, the Eurozone is pricing in only 1 rate increase for 2022 … in October.

The ECB’s monetary policy is as stiff as French President Emmanuel Macron.

The Fed Boogie! Homes Above $800,000 Drive Bidding Wars in U.S. Housing Market As Fed’s Stimulypto Persists

Massive Federal stimulus (both fiscal and monetary) have led to bidding wars among the wealthiest Americans. Despite clamoring for The Fed to increase rates and speed-up the shrinking of The Fed’s balance sheet, nothing has happened … yet.

(Bloomberg) — Home buyers willing to spend almost a $1 million are competing the most for a piece of the red-hot U.S. housing market.

Homes priced between $800,000 and $1 million saw the highest rate of bidding wars at 64.6%, followed by 62% for homes between $1 million to $1.5 million and 61.7% for homes above $1.5 million, according to December data from Redfin Corp.

“Buyers should anticipate that they may not win a house until their sixth or seventh bid,” Candace Evans, a Redfin team manager in New York, said in a statement. “If you’re the type of person who falls in love with a house, this is not your market.”

Salt Lake City had the highest bidding-war rate of 37 U.S. metropolitan areas analyzed, with 74% of offers facing competition in December, the firm said. Tucson had a 73.1% bidding-war rate and followed by 71.1% for San Diego.

Prospective buyers are competing for homes as relatively cheap mortgage rates and a proliferation of remote-working opportunities in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic boost demand for homes in smaller cities. The number of available homes in several of the hottest markets continue to shrink. 

Nearly 60% of home offers written by Redfin agents across the U.S. faced competing bids in December, the firm said. It was the lowest rate in 12 months but an increase from 54% in December 2020 as pandemic-driven demand for housing remains strong.

Vacation homes, which are often pricey and have increased in popularity due to Covid-19, may have contributed to bidding wars in the high-end market, Redfin said. Townhouses had a bidding-war rate of 62% followed by 61.3% for single-family homes, the firm said.

Now its a race against the clock as potential home buyers try to beat Powell and the Gang as they raise mortgages rates.

Yes, Federal stimulus has made the top 1% increase their share of total net worth that includes $800,000+ homes.

Try to calm down and listen to Torquay by The Leftovers. Or listen to Danse Fed.

Kevin’s Famous Chili? 30Y Mortgage Rate Rises To 3.45% As 10Y Treasury Yields Rises To 1.869% (4 Rates Hikes By Fed Priced-in)

The 10-year Treasury Note yield rose to 1.869% this afternoon as Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage commitment rate rose to 3.45%.

And if you like The Fed Funds Futures data, it is pricing in 4 rate hikes by The Fed (March, June, September and December). For a grand total of … 100 basis points or 1%.

By keeping rates soooo low for soooo long, The Fed has committed a serious policy error. Or as Kevin Malone calls it, “The Fed’s Famous Chili!”

The Empire Strikes Out! Empire Manufacturing Index Slumps To Negative Territory As Inflation Roars (WTI Crude Futures UP 79% Since Jan 1st)

Well, Omicron is hitting hard. Not the virus itself, but governments’ reaction to the virus. The NY Empire Manufacturing Index has tanked into negative territory.

New orders are down 5%.

On the energy front, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures are up 79% since January 1, 2021 while regular gasoline prices are up “only” 50% over the same period.

How about inflation and the Treasury yield curve? Inflation has soared to 40-year highs under Biden as energy prices (WTI Crude Futures) have soared 79%.

Container ships are still backed-up at LA and Long Beach ports. I thought Mayor Pete was supposed to fix the port congestion problem!

Maybe they should play the Darth Vader theme when Biden goes to the podium to stammer.

Logan (Un)Lucky? China Cuts Rates As Omicron Worsens And Chinese Developer Bond Rout Deepens on Hidden Debt Concerns

The Chinese Real Estate Developer Debacles continues to spread from Evergrande to other developers as China’s Central Bank cuts rates due to Omicron spread.

First, China’s Central Bank cut their 1 year medium-term lending rate to 2.85% from 2.95%. And the growing malaise in China’s real estate development continues.

Fresh turmoil rocked Chinese property bonds on Monday on concern over the true scale of the industry’s hidden debts, deepening a selloff among higher-rated firms.

A Logan Group Co. note due 2023 sank 14.1 cents to a record low 62.9 cents after Debtwire reported the developer could be on the hook for $812 million of guarantees on outstanding obligations due through 2023. Country Garden Holdings Co.’s bond due 2024 tumbled 12.9 cents to 67.7 cents, extending last week’s selloff for the country’s biggest developer.

Let’s see if the US Federal Reserve follows through with it rates increases when China is cutting their rates.