Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% MoM in December, worse than the +0.3% expected, leaving sales down
Source: Bloomberg
Total Existing Home Sales in December 2023 were 3.78mm – the lowest SAAR since 2010…
Source: Bloomberg
But, on an annual basis, this is the worst year on record (back to at least 1995)..
Source: Bloomberg
“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”
Existing Home Sales were flat in the Northeast, lower in the MidWest and the South, and up marginally in the West (driven by single-family-home sales as condo sales declined)…
Source: Bloomberg
Last month, the number of previously owned homes for sale dropped to 1 million, the lowest since March.
At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 3.2 months.
Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight resale market.
That lack of inventory is helping to keep prices elevated.
The median selling price climbed 4.4% to $382,600 in December from a year ago, reflecting increases in all four regions. Prices hit a record of $389,800 in 2023.
Source: Bloomberg
But, with mortgage rates having tumbled (and given the lagged responses), are sales about to start rising again?
Source: Bloomberg
So The Fed managed to kill sales, collapse inventories, send home prices higher, destroying affordability… and now what is going to happen?
For visitors, Universal Studios Florida offers a chance to visit a fantastical land full of wizards, Minions and various characters from NBC Universal’s many film and television properties. But for the roughly 28,000 men and women who work at the 840-acre theme park and resort complex in Orlando, the troubles of the real world — like the rising cost of housing — are not far away.
Central Florida has seen some of the nation’s fastest pandemic-era rent increases, thanks to a confluence of job growth, migration and housing underproduction that has put a strain on residents. The average tenant in the region saw their monthly rent jump by $600 between early 2020 and early 2023. According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area has one of the worst affordable housing shortages in the US, with only 15 available units for every 100 extremely low-income renter households.
The dire need for workforce housing is behind the entertainment conglomerate’s latest project in Central Florida: a 1,000-unit mixed-use development, set to open in 2026, that promises to give tenants who work in the service industry a short commute to the constellation of tourist attractions and hotels nearby. To launch the project, Universal donated 20 acres of land adjacent to the Orange County convention center. Called Catchlight Crossings and built in partnership with local developer Wendover Housing Partners, the project broke ground in November.
Universal’s nearby rival is also wading into affordable housing. In 2022, Walt Disney Co.announced plans to donate 80 acres for a proposed 1,450-unit affordable development a few miles to the southwest. Also set to open in 2026, the project would be built near Flamingo Crossings Village, a campus for participants in Disney’s college internship program that also leases units to some Disney World cast members. (Oh great, brainwashing by woke Disney types).
As housing costs in Central Florida have soared, the theme park giants have faced criticism for underpaying workers. In June, Universal raised its minimum wage by $2 to $17 an hour, while Disney, which employs 82,00 people in Florida, agreed to bump its starting hourly rate to $18 in 2024. Still, both lag behind the $18.85 that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Living Wage Calculator estimates would be needed to support an adult with no children in Orange County.
Visitors throng Disney’s Magic Kingdom in Orlando.Photographer: David Ryder/Bloomberg
Even smaller theme parks in more affordable areas have become homebuilders in an effort to ease the housing crunch. In May, Indiana’s Holiday World opened a $7 million development called Compass Commons, which is meant to provide seasonal housing for up to 136 employees. It will replace a proposed theme park attraction that was set to open last summer.
Such partnerships between entertainment industry employers, developers and local government represent the latest spin on a solution for the ongoing scarcity of apartments for lower-income households. Catchlight Crossings is part of Universal’s Housing to Tomorrow initiative, which was inspired by the Orange County mayor’s Housing for All Task Force. The company represents almost 10% of the tax base of Orange County, which includes Orlando.
“What could we do that would be more than just the typical corporate response?” said John Sprouls, executive vice president and chief administrative officer at Universal Parks and Resorts. “If you’re going to provide affordable housing, providing affordable housing where the jobs are sure makes a lot of sense.”
The Truly Missing Middle
Workforce housing is a much-needed housing type without a precise definition. Unlike affordable housing, which must meet stringent rental rates matched to specific income levels to qualify for government support and subsidies — typically 40% of units need to be priced to support those households who make 60% of the area median income — workforce housing stands as more of a catch-all term. Some define it as housing that serves those making between 80% and 120% of median area income. Often, the term is used to invoke housing for teachers, first responders and other public servants who have been increasingly priced out of expensive metros.
Over the last decade, and through the recent pandemic-era surge in apartment construction, developers have largely ignored the lower end of the market, focusing instead on Class A apartments. Beginning in 2013, half or more of units delivered each year were considered high-end or luxury, according to statistics from the National Multifamily Housing Council. Only since the middle of 2022 has that shifted towards Class B, or more affordable units.
Seeking lower production costs and rents, a handful of big developers have created new sub-brands of apartments designed to appeal to less-monied tenants. Grubb Properties launched a series of “car-light” developments called Link, which emphasize accessibility to major urban employers, while Greystar’s Modern Living Solutions concept offers modular multifamily buildings that are assembled on site from factory-built elements in an effort to trim construction costs.
To promote more construction of this type of housing, a bipartisan coalition of federal lawmakers recently introduced the Workforce Housing Tax Credit Act. Like the low-income housing tax credit, the proposed legislation would provide tax credit to investors who build affordable apartments. The bill’s sponsors, including Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, say the credit would finance approximately 344,000 affordable rental homes. It’s been a pet issue for Wyden in particular; 70% of Oregon school districts have built or rented housing to provide support for their teachers.
Nationwide, the US is short approximately 2.2 million workforce units, according to a 2022 Fannie Mae study. Central Florida’s service-based economy has left it with one of the highest levels of need, Wendover founder and Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Wolf said. There are roughly 100,000 people living within a five-mile radius of Catchlight Crossings who would income-qualify for the development.
Besides pools for residents, the proposed Universal development will include such amenities as a preschool and adult education center.Credit: Wendover Housing Partners
Rents at the Universal-led project will range from $400 to $2,200, depending on income qualifications (the average two-bedroom unit in the area rents for just shy of $1,900 a month). The development will also contain medical offices, retail, community space including pools and fitness centers, bike and walking paths and a tuition-free Bezos Academy preschool and adult education center. A transit center will connect residents to buses, ride-hailing services and company shuttles; a stop on the proposed Sunshine Corridor, a new east-west rail line that’s designed to help tourism workers get around, may take shape nearby.
“You’re not creating an economic ghetto,” Wolf said. “You’re creating a lifestyle enhancement for so many people, giving folks the ability for mobility.”
The theme park giant owns a few thousand acres in the area, so this was a relatively small donation, according to Sprouls. It also comes during a time of booming profits: Central Florida’s tourism industry generated a record $87.6 billion in economic impact in 2022. And since Universal transferred the land via a 501c3 charity with deed restrictions, the donation can lower development costs and help ensure long-term affordability; lots of affordable housing tends to revert back to market-rate pricing after a set term.
Employer-sponsored projects like Catchlight Crossings can’t mandate that only their employees can be tenants — that would violate fair housing rules. But for a customer-facing company like Universal, working to close the region’s housing gap can pay direct benefits, Sprouls said. When employees can’t find housing nearby and need to drive hours to get to work, it impacts not just their performance, but the guest experiences that drive satisfaction and repeat visits.
Park guests arrive at the Universal Studios theme park in Orlando in 2020.Photographer: Zack Wittman/Bloomberg
“It helps us to be able to recruit because people are able to have jobs here,” Sprouls said. “Salaries go into making you an attractive employer in the area, but you also need to make this an attractive place to live.”
Corporate Housing’s Mixed Record
Still, it remains to be seen if privately financed efforts like the Universal and Disney investments can have a significant impact on the lives of local renters. Other industries, most notably tech, have poured hundreds of millions of dollars and even billions into financing the construction of workforce housing near their headquarters. Amazon.com Inc., Google and Meta Platforms Inc. have all done variations of this kind of development, with mixed results. Many such efforts took off after severe backlash to the impact tech jobs had on local housing markets, and most were in the forms of loans, financing and leases, which can be helpful but not exactly game-changing. Recent swings in interest rates and increases in housing costs, not to mention struggles in the tech industry, have curtailed many of these programs.
“There was a lot of energy, and then there wasn’t,” Alex Schafran, a visiting scholar at San Jose State University’s Institute for Metropolitan Studies and a former consultant for Facebook’s housing initiative, told the Guardian. “The balloon didn’t pop overnight, but now there’s very little air in it.”
And the support of powerful local employers can’t inoculate these projects from community pushback. At a town meeting for the Disney project in September, residents raised a host of familiar objections about traffic congestion, school crowding and site location. When it comes to building multifamily developments, even Goofy has to contend with NIMBYs.
Wendover’s Wolf argues that while the financing part is critical, it may not be enough. His firm has been very involved in pushing for more government support for the affordable housing projects they specialize in. Associate Ryan von Weller, for example, was among the local developers who consulted with Florida lawmakers on a state bill, Live Local, which directed more than $700 million into supporting affordable housing. (Sprouls said Universal won’t see any tax benefits from their land donation.) But Wolf believes the area’s big corporate employers need to play a bigger role in solving this crisis.
“We need your involvement in it in a very direct way to work alongside us, to make this a success,” he said. “It’s not just a simple check and walk away. We need the land. We need cooperation.”
Here is the REAL problem with the lack of housing stock. Growth of new housing units has slowed to negative speeds as mortgage rates soared, but aren’t growing again with declining mortgage rates which remain relatively high. Add in the 11 million or so illegal immigrants crossing the border and we have a major problem.
Here we sit with core inflation rate BELOW the current Fed Funds Target Rate (upper bound). So is it time to start withdrawing its more than ample monetary stimulus. Like the Bank Term Funding Program.
The Federal Reserve is likely to retire the Bank Term Funding Program in March. This would entail an additional ongoing headwind for reserves, and thus liquidity, through 2024. At the margin, this adds weight to the case for the Fed cutting interest rates sooner in the year.
The BTFP was created in the wake of the SVB crisis to help struggling banks get access to liquidity when bond prices were dropping. However, its use in recent months has jumped to over $140 billion. That is not, however, a sign of banking stress.
The chart below shows the usage of the BTFP along with the rate paid at the 99th percentile in the fed funds market relative to the upper bound of the range for fed funds.
As can be seen, this is under zero, i.e. banks are not having to pay up to get liquidity.
This is in stark contrast to last March at the time of SVB’s fall when some banks were having to pay 15 bps above the fed funds upper bound for liquidity.
This time the rise in BTFP usage is good old-fashioned arbitrage. After the Fed’s pivot, term rates have come down relative to the policy rate. The cost to use the BTFP is 1y OIS + 10 bps, which is ~4.90%. Banks can post USTs at par as collateral, borrow at this rate, then deposit the funds back at the Fed at the IORB rate (interest on reserve balances), i.e. 5.40%, for a juicy risk-free profit.
This is not good optics, so it is unlikely the program will be renewed when it is due to expire on March 11. Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, hinted as much on Tuesday when he emphasized the BTFP is an “emergency program.”
And it seems clear the emergency is over. Deposits of small banks (for whom the program was aimed at) have been rising since their drop after SVB’s collapse (both on a seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted basis). That, along with the quiescent fed funds market, suggests banks are not facing stress. Furthermore, the Fed’s pivot has also increased collateral values, making banks’ hold-to-maturity portfolios less underwater.
The BTFP’s expiry would mean another ongoing drain on reserves as the loans expire over the year.
With the Fed now seemingly focused on liquidity in this new paradigm, this adds to reasons why the central bank may cut earlier in the year.
The market is currently pricing 17 bps of cuts for the March 20 meeting, so that’s not an attractive risk-reward, but at under ~7 bps or so that proposition changes – more so if the BTFP is no more.
Meanwhile, the futures market is forecasting rate cuts of over 200 basis points!
The Federal Reserve is a private enterprise that works with The Federal government like in the film “Prometheus” or “Chariots of the Clods.”
Joe Biden can be called “Sloppy Joe” because of the economic havoc he has sprung on an unsuspecting middle class. The following seven charts are what keeps me up at night (unlike what keeps multimillionaire Michelle Obama up at nights).
First, US interest payment on Federal debt is rising faster than our bloated military budget. Thanks mostly to The Fed raising rates to fight inflation under Biden.
Second, contrainer shipping rates are soaring thanks to Iran’s interference in the Middle East and Biden’s failed diplomacy with Iran.
Third, food prices are over 20% more expensive under Biden while gasoline prices are over 28% more expensive under Biden. Housing is also more expensive under “Sloppy Joe” as in 33.5% more expensive.
Fourth, Bidenomics is about adding more non-productive government jobs.
Sixth, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust $GBTC traded close to half a billion on Monday. Which shows the lack of confidence in Biden’s handling of the economy.
Seventh, purchasing power of the US Dollar is down 15% under Sloppy Joe.
While some may view Biden’s policies are planned destruction of the US economy, it could simply be that Biden (who is one of the stupidest people in Washington DC) simply is grossly incompetent and … sloppy.
Income is rising and so are wages. Even real income is up. But real wages are another matter.
Personal income data from the BEA, hourly wages from the BLS, real hourly earnings and chart by Mish.
Personal Income vs Hourly Wages Notes
DPI means Disposable Personal Income. Disposable means after taxes.
Real DPI means inflation adjusted using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator. Real DPI is a BEA calculation.
Average hourly earning are for production and nonsupervisory workers.
Real wages are deflated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) not the PCE.
The BLS does not report a real hourly wage. I used the CPI-W index for production and nonsupervisory workers, produced by the BLS, as the deflator.
Personal Income Definition
The BEA defines personal income as “Income that people get from wages and salaries, Social Security and other government benefits, dividends and interest, business ownership, and other sources.”
Rental income is a part of other sources.
Three Rounds of Fiscal Stimulus
Round 1, March 2020: $1,200 per income tax filer, $500 per child(CARES Act) – Trump
Round 2, December 2020: $600 per income tax filer, $600 per child (Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021) – Trump
Round 3, March 2021: $1,400 per income tax filer, $1,400 per child (American Rescue Plan Act) – Biden
The three rounds of free money fiscal stimulus (literally a helicopter drop), plus eviction moratoriums put an unprecedented amount of money in people’s hands. In addition, unemployment insurance paid people more to not work than they received working.
The third round of stimulus under Biden was totally unwarranted. However, it is also worth noting that Trump wanted a much bigger second stimulus package than the Republican Congress gave him. Trump is no fiscal hero.
The three stimulus packages, on top of supply chain disruptions, energy disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and Bidenomics in general, set in motion the biggest wave of inflation in over 30 years.
Biden went from an approval rating of 17.2 percent to a disapproval rating of 17.2 percent.
Peak Free Money
In addition to declining real wages, perhaps Biden’s big problem is the free money has run out.
Biden’s popularity peaked in March of 2021 along with stimulus. Was that a honeymoon impact or peak free money?
[ZH: While not a perfect indicator, the lagged US credit impulse perhaps provides a proxy for US fiscal excess and when overlaid with Biden’s approval rating, it is clear that 2022’s re-acceleration did nothing for people’s faith in him… and it’s only got worse…]
I suspect a bit of each coupled with hope of more free money, especially student loan forgiveness.
Sending free money to Israel and Ukraine does not help perceptions of how Biden is doing. And neither does the border or ridiculous energy regulations that cost people money.
Biden keeps telling people what a great job he has done.
I don’t believe it and most don’t either. And that shows up in the polls no matter what reason you assign.
Can Biden scrounge up some more stimulus? Because the private sector is not doing well under “Open Borders Biden.”
Take a look at this chart of real GDP YoY / Bank Credit YoY on the left axis and M2 Money growth on the right axis. I call this the velocity of bank credit. And it is sucking wind! Crashing to -13 in Q3.
Then we have US manufacturing PMI saw only two months in 2023 that were not in contraction and ended on a decidedly poor note with the final December print dropping to 47.9 (from 48.2 flash and 49.4 prior).
Source: Bloomberg
Across the board it was ugly with:
Renewed contraction in output as orders fall at sharper pace
Rates of inflation pick up
Joint-fastest drop in employment since June 2020
How bad is Biden’s fiscal policy? US interest payments on our bloated Federal debt is now higher than defense spending. Biden isn’t tuff enough to moderate spending or the border invasion.
Several talking heads are salivating about the strong or solid jobs report in October. As if The Federal Reserve can’t read the jobs report. I call the report “Government gone wild!” since 51k government jobs were added in October.
Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike actvity.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, below the average monthly gain of 258,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment in manufacturing declined due to strike activity. (See table B-1.) Health care added 58,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 53,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+32,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000). Employment in government increased by 51,000 in October and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Monthly job growth in government had averaged 50,000 in the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in local government (+38,000). Social assistance added 19,000 jobs in October, compared with the average monthly gain of 23,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in individual and family services (+14,000). In October, construction employment continued to trend up (+23,000), about in line with the average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and construction of buildings (+6,000). Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts that was largely due to strike activity. In October, employment in leisure and hospitality changed little (+19,000). The industry had added an average of 52,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Employment in professional and business services was little changed in October (+15,000) and has shown little net change since May.
Speaking of Govzilla, my favorite quote showing the stupidity of BIG government is … Biden’s climate envoy John Kerry. “We’ve got to cut down on farming due to ‘Climate Change’…or people are going to starve…”
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