Fed’s Ability to Set Rates Floor Is Weakening on Cash Deluge (“Charming” Powell Had At Least 350 Meetings, Dinners Or Phone Calls With Members Of Congress)

Powell and The Fed’s policies have veered from their mandate requiring Chairman Powell to meet 350 times with Congress to sell The Fed’s policies.

Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s floor for overnight funding markets is proving to be no match for the deluge of cash. 

Money-market securities ranging from Treasury bills to repurchase agreements continue to trade below 0.05% — the offering rate on the overnight reverse repo facility, which is supposed to act like a floor for the front end. The Fed at its June meeting had raised the rate by five basis points to help support the smooth functioning of short-term funding markets.

Still, usage of the tool climbed to a record $1.136 trillion on Monday, eclipsing the previous high of $1.116 trillion on Aug. 18. 

Demand for the so-called RRP facility has surged as a flood of dollars threatens to overwhelm funding markets. That’s in part a result of the central bank’s long-standing asset purchases and drawdowns of the Treasury’s cash account, which is pushing reserves into the system. As a result, liquidity has been swelling, especially as the Treasury cuts supply to create more borrowing room under the debt ceiling.

The pressure pushing down overnight rates toward zero is proving a major headache for money-market funds. It hampers their ability to invest profitably, and can lead to further disruptions as they begin to waive fees to avoid passing on negative rates to shareholders. A number of firms including Vanguard Group shut down prime money-market funds last year after struggling to cover operating costs in the low-interest-rate environment.

Yes, overnight rates such as the US SOFR rate, are near zero.

Powell’s Charm Offensive in Congress Positions Him to Keep Job

Perhaps that is why Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is acting as a lobbyist with Congress for The Fed’s nontraditional approach to monetary policy.

(Bloomberg) Since he took the helm of the Fed in February 2018, through June of this year, he’s held at least 350 meetings, dinners or phone calls with members of Congress, according to his monthly calendars. That’s almost nine per month, and many of those included more than one lawmaker. The tally doesn’t count at least 16 appearances as chair before numerous congressional committees.

Well, the stock market has zoomed-up since Bernanke and The Fed adopted zero-interest rate (ZIRP) policies and the now famous quantitative easing (QE) policies in late 2008.

Congress member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asked Fed Chair Powell about the Fed helping with US unemployment. We are already at zero rates (on the short-end), and Congress should look at their policies on why labor force participation is slow to recover from the Covid epidemic.

Powell is sounding more and more like Parks and Recreation’s Tom Haverford in terms of schmoozing Congress for support.

Update: The Mises Stationarity Index is flashing “BUBBLE.”

The Mises Stationarity Index is different than the Shiller CAPE index, which is showing equities as being overpriced, but not yet in dot.com bubble zone.

Treasury And Mortgage Rates In A Never-Ending Balance Sheet World (REAL Mortgage Rates NEGATIVE With Skyrocketing Home Prices)

Headline! “Fed’s Kaplan says delta variant could cause him to rethink his tapering view”

Face it, the Federal Reserve may alter its growth path on asset purchases of Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-backed Securities, but it is doubtful that they will pare back their balance sheet. Call it “A Never-ending balance sheet for you” world.

Why? Seemingly never-ending Covid crisis, etc.

Let’s look at US Treasury yields today. The 10-year Treasury yield is up slightly to 1.25% as of 10am EST.

Here is a chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, Fed Funds effective rate, Fed Balance sheet and reverse repos since the Covid outbreak and Fed massive intervention. Bottom line, the have repressed the short-term interest rates and put downward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield.

As the 10-year Treasury yield remains repressed DESPITE HIGHEST INFLATION RATE SINCE 2008, the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate remains repressed as well. Yes, that mean NEGATIVE REAL MORTGAGE RATES.

This produces a REAL mortgage rate of -2.56%.

The spread of mortgage rates over the 10-year Treasury yield is about 173 basis point since 1971.

Where will Treasury yields go from hear? If we believe technical analysis like the Ichimoku Cloud, the 10-year Treasury rate will likely rise.

And The Fed’s Dots project also see rates rising (at least on the short-end.

Negative real mortgage rates and blistering home price growth?

Will the attendees at the KC Fed Jackson Hole conference discuss these matters? Or will it just be a Federal Reserve Soul Shake (dance)?

Fed Minutes: Taper Begins IFF Covid Doesn’t Harm Economy, Or An Arquillian Battle Cruisier Or (Fed Reverse Repos Keep Climbing)

To quote Tommy Lee Jones from the film Men In Black “There’s always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!”

That is what The Fed essentially said in their minutes, but not in so many words.

The minutes of the July Fed meeting suggest officials may signal an impending start to asset purchase tapering at the September gathering — provided jobs numbers remain on track in the interim — and make an announcement in November.

Rising infections counts have not spurred an uptick in new jobless claims. High-frequency data show some customers are shying away from eating out, but the overall impact on restaurant reservations is limited. The bigger challenge for many companies is retaining and hiring enough workers to meet strong demand, evident in low layoff counts and persistent mention of labor shortages.

In other words, IFF Covid doesn’t cause further economic damage (or governments don’t shut down economies), then The Fed will consider a mild taper of their balance sheet.

But as of this morning, The Fed’s reverse repo facility keeps on rising along with The Fed’s balance sheet. At least M2 Money Supply growth has leveled off.

That should result in an increase in Treasury yields and mortgage rates, all things being equal. And assuming the Biden Administration and governors don’t panic and go into economic lockdown … again.

The US Treasury curves since the Covid recession of 2020 have shown optimism in recovery … then reality dawned.

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors meeting

Fed’s $168.2 Trillion Nightmare That Powell Ignored In Written Testimony Before Senate Banking Committee (Bank Staggering Derivative Exposure)

Yes, Fed Chair Powell gave written testimony before the US Senate Banking Committee. He left out one important bit of information: US banks have $168.2 TRILLION in derivative exposure.

It could be that Chairman Powell had other things on his mind, like reverse repos over $1 trillion and a $8.26 trillion balance sheet.

Palantir Buys Gold Bars as Hedge Against ‘Black Swan Event’ (Might Invest In Bitcoin)

  • Company spent $50.7 million on 100-ounce gold bars in August
  • Customers can now pay for software in gold or Bitcoin

Palantir Technologies Inc. said it’s preparing for another “black swan event” by stockpiling gold bars and inviting customers to pay for its data analysis software in gold.

The company spent $50.7 million this month on gold, part of an unusual investment strategy that also includes startups, blank-check companies and possibly Bitcoin. Palantir had previously said it would accept Bitcoin as a form of payment before adding precious metals more recently.

A spokeswoman for Palantir said no one has yet paid in either Bitcoin or gold. Accepting nontraditional currencies “reflects more of a worldview,” Shyam Sankar, the chief operating officer, said in an interview. “You have to be prepared for a future with more black swan events.”

The gold purchase was buried in a securities filing last week for its quarterly financial results and reported earlier this week by Barron’s. The acceptance of gold as a form of payment hasn’t been previously reported.

Palantir’s 100-ounce gold bars will be kept in a secure location in the northeastern U.S., according to the filing. “The company is able to take physical possession of the gold bars stored at the facility at any time with reasonable notice,” Palantir wrote.

Palantir, co-founded by the technology billionaire Peter Thiel and Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp, makes software used by governments and businesses. It fashions itself as a company of free thinkers. Palantir relocated to Denver last year and mocked its peers in Silicon Valley on the way out. In the interview, Shyam compared Palantir’s culture with an “artist colony,” rather than a tech company churning out software on an assembly line.

Governments have strongly embraced Palantir software to help them make sense of the coronavirus pandemic, the current so-called black swan, a random and unpredictable event.

The company has some $2.3 billion in cash and is exploring creative uses for that money. Palantir said in May that it was considering investing in Bitcoin. And it’s taking stakes in startups that are customers of Palantir software, an approach that helped buoy sales results in the second quarter.

Here is a chart of the US Dollar, Bitcoin, and Gold over the past year.

Black swan event? What could possibly go wrong??

United Wholesale Mortgage Plans To Begin Cryptocurrency Transactions In Q3 (Lender Accepts Cryptocurrency For Home Loans)

From Phil Hall at Benzinga:

United Wholesale Mortgage UWMC has announced plans to become the first national mortgage lender to accept cryptocurrency for home loans.

What Happened: CEO Mat Ishbia previewed the Pontiac, Michigan-based company’s expansion into the cryptocurrency realm during the second-quarter earnings call on Monday.

“We’ve evaluated the feasibility, and we’re looking forward to being the first mortgage company in America to accept cryptocurrency to satisfy mortgage payments,” Ishbia said. “That’s something that we’ve been working on, and we’re excited that hopefully, in Q3, we can actually execute on that before anyone in the country because we are a leader in technology and innovation.”

In an interview with the Detroit Free Press, Ishbia offered more details on which cryptocurrencies would be considered in transactions.

“I think we’re starting with Bitcoin, but we’re looking at Ethereum and others,” Ishbia said. “We’re going to walk before we run, but at the same time, we are definitely a leader in technology and innovation and we are always trying to be the best and the leader in everything we do.

“That’s the plan,” he added. “Obviously there’s no guarantees – we’re still working through some details. But absolutely.”

Why It Matters: One of the first homebuying deals in the U.S. involving cryptocurrency took place in 2014 with the $1.6 million sale of land in Lake Tahoe for a home site. The transaction was completed with payment via Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

However, the heavily regulated and risk-averse mortgage industry hasn’t embraced cryptocurrency. The government-sponsored enterprises that dominate the industry’s secondary market, Fannie Mae FNMA+ Free Alerts and Freddie MacFMCC+ Free Alerts, will not accept any transaction in a digital asset.

If UMC plans to package its cryptocurrency-based loans for secondary market sale, the borrower’s cryptocurrency payment would have to be converted into dollars and the borrower would need to provide documentation to verify ownership of the digital assets as part of the loan underwriting process.

US Homebuilder Confidence Drops To 13-Month Low As Building Material Prices Increase 19.4% Over Past Year

The NAHB Homebuilder confidence index dropped to a 13 month low as building materials rise by 19.4% YoY.

Of course, then we have the University of Michigan conditions for buying a home crashing as well.

Rising home prices and rising construction material costs? Yikes.

Of course, the NAHB had this to say:

“Our expectation is that production bottlenecks should ease over the coming months and the market should return to more normal conditions,” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement.

Perhaps, but The Fed needs to slow down its money printing as well.

The most powerful economists in the world?

S&P 500 Bubble Views: Buffett Indicator, Shiller CAPE, Ichimoku, Bollinger, Gold To SPX, SPX Versus Average Hourly Earnings (All Roads Point To Bubble)

There are a variety of measures of an asset bubble. And each one points to an unsustainable bubble in the stock market.

Let’s start with the Buffett Indicator. The ratio of Total Market Capitalization of all US stocks (WCAUUS ) to total nominal GDP of the United States (GDP CUR$ ).

There is also the GLOBAL Buffett ratio produced by Holger Zschäpitz. Global market cap now equal to 139% of global GDP, way above Buffett’s 100% bubble threshold.

Shiller’s Cyclically-adjusted Price-earnings ratio? Still climbing and resembles the Dot.com bubble of 2000.

How about gold to Average Hourly Earnings (similar to the Bichler and Nitzan “Power” measure. The spread (bottom chart) sees the S&P 500 index soaring away from average hourly earnings.

We also have the Gold to SPX ratio that is now back to pre-financial crisis levels.

How about the Ichimoku cloud, where the SPX is currently ABOVE the cloud?

SPX and Bollinger Bands? The SPX index is close to the upper band.

How about The Hindenburg Omen, a technical indicator that was designed to signal the increased probability of a stock market crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in stock prices to a predetermined reference percentage that is supposed to predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash.

So it looks like a have a bubble in the stock market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees the ghost of the Dot.com bubble.

More Housing Inventory is Coming! 850,000 Borrowers Will Exit Forbearance Between August and October (Will The Fed And Biden/HUD/Congress Take Action?)

The ball is in the court of The Fed, the Biden administration (HUD) and Congress. Will they take action?

There will be more housing inventory hitting the market soon. As home prices are up and most are no longer in negative equity situations, some will decide to sell into this hot market. Obviously not paying your mortgage for 12, 14, 16, or even 18 months is a nice bonus that party is coming to an end.

Zillow’s research found that most are not going to bring their mortgage current. Assume someone took a forbearance and their monthly mortgage cost was $2,000 per month, some may be behind by up to $36,000 when the forbearance period ends. Okay, well what if you can’t make it current? You can defer the payments to the end of the mortgage but you still owe that and many got used to not even paying the regular monthly payment. So a sizable portion will be selling

Here is Black Knight’s Scheduled Forebearance Plan expirations.

Could this be the end of the 16.6% YoY growth rate in home prices? Or will Congress and/or The Biden Administration extend the forbearance? Or will The Fed expand their balance sheet even further??

Will the Biden Administration come to the rescue?

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Plunges to Lowest Since 2011 (Good Time To Buy A Home Falls To 30% Share Due To Raging Home Price Growth)

U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early August to the lowest level in nearly a decade as Americans grew more concerned about the economy’s prospects, inflation and the recent surge in coronavirus cases.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index fell by 11 points to 70.2, the lowest since December 2011, data released Friday showed. The figure fell well short of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Consumer sentiment in U.S. plunges on concerns about virus, economic prospects
  

The slump in confidence risks a more pronounced slowing in economic growth in coming months should consumers rein in spending. The recent deterioration in sentiment highlights how rising prices and concerns about the delta variant’s potential impact on the economy are weighing on Americans.

“Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy’s performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end,” Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in the report.

The expectations gauge plummeted almost 14 points to 65.2, the lowest since October 2013. A measure of consumers’ outlook for the economy over the coming year soured, falling the most since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. 

Only 36% of respondents expect a decline in the jobless rate, down from 52% the prior month, despite record job openings. Consumers also became decidedly downbeat about their income prospects. The gauge of expected personal finances fell to a seven-year low.

Rising prices are having a clear impact on Americans’ budgets, particularly among those with lower or fixed incomes. Nearly a third of those aged 65 or older complained that inflation had lowered their living standards, as did about a fourth of those with incomes in the bottom third or with a high school education or less. 

The Michigan report showed buying conditions deteriorated to the lowest since April of last year.

Buying conditions deteriorate sharply for American consumers as prices soar
  

Yes, only 30% of respondents felt that it was a good time to buy a home. Particularly since home prices are rising at a 16.6% YoY pace, faster even than the peak of the infamous home price bubble of 2005. But this time, The Fed is blowing the bubble, not easy mortgage credit like in 2005.

Apparently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen does not inspire confidence in consumers.