Slippin’ Into Darkness! St Louis Fed Nowcast Q3 GDP Growth At -0.07% As M2 Money Growth Collapses (While Atlanta Fed GDPNow At 5.6% Growth?)

Slippin’ into darkness! Bidenomics, that is! Joe Biden is not a friend of the US middle class.

The St Louis Fed’s real time GDP tracker known as Nowcast has Q3 GDP at -0.07%. This happening at M2 Money growth collapses.

If you want to feel good, check out Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate (housing economist Raphael Bostic is its President) which has Q3 GDP at 5.6%.

When will The Fed return to it low riding rates days?

Reverend Biden.

Bidenomics 101 (Immigration): Native Born Labor Force UP 3.6%, Foreign Born Labor Force UP 14.6% Under Biden (>1 Millon Foreign Born Jobs Added While 1+ Million Native Born Jobs Lost In August)

Face it. No one in Washington DC wants to close the border. Republicans supporting big agriculture support open borders and cheap labor, Democrats love open borders for political gains, despite open borders meaning a flood of migrants and depressing job prospects for native born Americans.

Case in point. Under the leadership of Biden (more like a followship because Biden clearly isn’t in charge of anything), the native born labor force (blue line) grew by 3.6%. However, the foreign born labor force (red line) grew by 14.6%.

The media focused on 1 million jobs lost for native-born and a gain of 697k jobs for foreign-born. But this claim is misleading. Look at the month to month changes in the labor force since 2020 (pink box). In several past months, we witnessed the same thing … native born job losses when foreign born gained jobs. But several months had the exact opposite. It is the overall trend that is alarming: native born jobs only grew 3.6% under Vacation Joe Biden while foreign born jobs grew 14.6%.

If we look at Employed full time: Earnings of foreign born as percent of native born: Median usual weekly nominal earnings (second quartile): Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over, we see that the YoY growth rate of earnings for foreign born declining. I attribute this to open borders and the influx of unskilled, largely uneducated immigrants pouring over the southern border.

Biden’s biographer claims that Biden is worried that he will be remembered as “Stupid.” Well, Biden IS stupid. But he is also the most corrupt President in history.

Simple Joe is what he will be remembered as.

Bidenomics 101 (Mortgage Rates) Conforming 30Y Rate UP 155% Under Biden, Home Prices UP 32% (Fed Balance Sheet Still Exceeds $8 Trillion, UP 10% Under Vacation Joe)

Under Bidenomics, there is still too much Fed monetary stimulus in the form of >$8 trillion on its balance sheet. While the biggest surge in Fed activity occurred with Covid, The Fed has added 10% to its balance sheet under Billions Biden.

Despite not backing off the assets purchases by The Fed, conforming 30Y mortgage rate is still up 155% under Bidenomics.

Yes, The Fed is raising its target rate to cool inflation, but doing little with its balance sheet.

The Case-Shiller national home price index is up 32% under Vacation Joe!

It seems prices are out of control and The Fed refuses to trim its balance sheet. But don’t worry, Vacation Joe is probably on yet another vacation while Maui and Flordia suffer and The Ukraine war is seeing bodies pile up. Meanwhile, he still hasn’t visited East Palestine Ohio like promised.

About The Jobs Report! Two-month Drop In Full-time Jobs Was 670K, Biggest Plunge Since Covid Lockdowns In 2020 (Mulitple Job Holders Rise To Cope With Inflation)

Covid is the gift that keeps on giving … to lazy bureaucrats and teachers union members. And a horror for small businesses and students since small businesse go bankrupt and students suffer from lack of education. And now The Federal Government is fearmongering (hey, that’s all they do!) ANOTHER Covid outbreak with Deep State Joe Biden advocating for more Federal spending on vaccines and telling everyone to get yet ANOTHER vaccination. And wear useless masks as a sign of obidience to The Democrat Party.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that in August the number of full-time jobs dropped again, sliding by 85K to 134.2 million, and followed the whopping 585K plunge in July which brings the two-month total drop in full-time jobs to a whopping 670K, the biggest 2-month plunge since the covid lockdowns in early 2020 when 12.5 million full-time jobs were lost in one month!

But if full-time jobs crashed how did the BLS get an increase of 222,000 employed workers? Simple: it was all in the latest jump of part-time workers. Indeed, in August the number of reported part-timers jumped by 32K and when added to the near-record 972K surge in July, the 2-month total was just over one million – 1,004,000 to be precise –  to 27.185 million.

Going back to a quantitative read of the data, we look at the number of multiple jobholders – those workers who have to work more than one job at a time to make ends meet. In August this number was actually a modest silver lining, as it dropped by July, that number dropped by 85K to 8.028 million, but it remains just shy of the pre-covid record.

Given the extreme level of corruption in the Biden Administration, the Democrat Party should be renamed after New York’s Tammany Hall.

And require all people to wear a Tammany Hall fez instead of a mask.

Bidenomics 101 (Income): Real Gross Domestic Income Growth NEGATIVE For 3 Consecutive Quarters As M2 Money Growth Worst Since 1933 And The New Deal (Only 187k Jobs Added In August And ALL Of Last Year’s Jobs Added Were Revised Downwards)

The glories of Bidenomics is on fully display. Despite what Lyin’ Biden says, Bidenomics is only working for the elites (top 1%). How Soviet/CCP command economy of him!

Here is an ugly chart showing Bidenomics in action! We all know that Covid unleashed a torrent of Fed monetary stimulus AND Federal spending on Covid relief and green energy subsidies (most to large Democrats donors). BUT we now have experienced 3 consectutive quarters of negative gross domestic income (GDI) growth. And nominal GDI growth is falling with falling M2 Money growth.

And today’s jobs report for August showed that only 187k jobs were added.

Superficially this would have meant an unchanged print from last month when the BLS also reported 187K jobs, however in keeping with recent trends that number was revised – drumroll – lower again, to 157K, meaning that every single monthly payrolls print in 20-23 has been revised lower (see chart below), a 12-sigma probability and virtually impossible unless there was political pressure to massage the data higher initially and then revise it lower when nobody is looking. (As if the mainstream media is at all honest!)

But wait there’s more: while July was revised down by 30K from +187,000 to +157,000, June was revised even more, by 80,000, from +185,000 to +105,000, which means that a number that was originally reported as 209K has been reivsed 50% lower, to 105K and a collapse vs original expectations of 230K. Here, the BLS was proud to report that “with these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported.”

And we have The Conference Board’s confidence index at -65. Yikes!

Finally, we have the 10Y-3M UST spread SCREAMING recession!

So, the economy is slowing under Bidenomics and Cadavar Joe.

Will Cadavar Joe actually go out on the campaign trail and debate ANY Democrat or Republican?? Remember, this is the man with the nuclear launch codes.

Another Bidenomics Report Bites The Dust! Challenger Jobs Cuts Increase By 267% YoY (Biden Bowl?)

Another (economic report) bites the dust!

U.S.-based employers announced 75,151 cuts in August, a 217% increase from the 23,697 cuts announced one month prior. It is 267% higher than the 20,485 cuts announced in the same month in 2022,

As M2 Money growth collapses to Great Depression levels. Instead of The Dust Bowl, we can call this The Biden Bowl.

This great meme can be replaced by “Our President is as cold as your ex’s heart.”

About That Legendary Jobs Market Under Bidenomics! ADP Jobs Added “Underwhelming” In August As Job Openings (JOLTs) Collapse

Billions Biden, the President who loves to (recklessly) spend taxpayer money (mostly on large donors). is going to have difficuly spinnig the latest employment figures.

First, ADP jobs added only 177k jobs in August.

Second, job openings (JOLTs) are collapsing (blue line) while the S&P 500 index keeps climbing (orange line).

The face of Bidenomics. The high Priestess of BIG GOVERNMENT and oppression.

Simply Unaffordable! Home Affordability Worst Since 1984 (Home Prices UP 26% Under Biden While REAL Median Weekly Earnings DOWN -5%)

As Robert Palmer nearly sang, US housing is simply unaffordable.

If we look at the Case-Shiller National home price index against real weekly wage growth, you can see the problem clearly. Since Covid and The Fed’s overreaction by providing staggering monetary stimulus, home prices shot up while real median weekly earnings collapsed.

Buying a house requires a much bigger slice of people’s income now — making this the most unaffordable housing market since 1984, by one measure.

And that crushing lack of affordability isn’t expected to improve much in the near future.

In just the last few weeks, US home prices rose for the first time in months and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a 22-year high of 7.23%.

That has made what was already a dismal affordability picture even worse.

At today’s rates, buying a median-priced home would require a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,440 for those making a 20% down payment, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider.

The rising cost of shelter represented 90% of last month’s inflation.

That’s $1,172 a month more in mortgage payments from just two years ago, before the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark lending rate 11 times in 18 months, Black Knight found. It’s a 92% increase — and is taking a growing chunk out of household budgets already facing inflation on many fronts.

Currently, 38.6% of the median household income is required to make the monthly payment on the average home purchase, making housing the least affordable it’s been since 1984, according to Black Knight.

“To put today’s affordability levels in perspective, it would take some combination of up to a 28% decline in home prices, a more than 4% reduction in 30-year mortgage rates, or up to a 60% growth in median household incomes to bring home affordability back to its 25-year average,” said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research and strategy at Black Knight.

Must as well face it, we’re addicted to gov. Or at least Fed monetary stimulus.

Just look at Personal Interest payments under Bidenomics.

The themesong for Bidenomics should be “Let’s Go Crazy” with spending … on green donors!

Biden and Powell probably sing “Hurt so good!”

Household Essentials Cost Far More Under Bidenomics! Gasoline Prices Up 72%, Rent Of Primary Residence Up 16%, Food At Home Up 20% Under Biden! (30Y Mortgage Rate UP 163% Under “Middle Class Joe”)

Middle class Joe my ^%&!

Joe Biden will always be remembered for lying about never raising taxes on households making under $400,000. Inflation is a permanent tax, mostly on those making under $400,000 per year. And household essentials are up substantially under Biden: gasoline prices are up 72%, rent CPI of Primary Residence is up 16%, and food at home CPI is up 20%! That is a HUGE tax on the middle class.

When mainstream economists and politicians cite “improvements” to the inflation problem in the US in recent months, what they are commonly referencing are changes to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  However, the CPI is not a measure of total inflation, rather, it is a median snapshot of prices at a particular point and time.  True inflation is cumulative – A 10% increase one year and a 5% increase the next year is not a win, it means that you are now paying 15% more on average for everything you buy in the span of only two years.   

When CPI falls this does not mean that prices on goods and services are going down, it only indicates that prices are rising slower than they were the month or the year before.

Another misconception about CPI is that it measures the inflation rate accurately for regular consumers on common purchases.  In reality, the CPI represents mean average price rate increase for a vast basket of goods; over 94,000 items and services with over 200 separate categories.  Most of these items and services you will never use or rarely purchase in the span of a year.  In other words, inflation declines in uncommon goods can dilute the numbers, making it seem like inflation is dropping while prices on daily necessities continue to spike.  

The CPI is weighted according to consumer spending patterns, which is where the calculations can be “adjusted” to a certain extent in an arbitrary manner.  Then there is outright government manipulation through various means.  As we witnessed recently with the Biden Administration’s claims that “Bidenomics” has defeated the inflation threat, what these reports don’t mention is that Biden has been dumping US strategic oil reserves on the market for the past year.  And since energy prices effect the inflation of so many other categories, Biden has artificially manipulated the CPI down using one key resource.  

Now that his ability to dump oil reserves has ended, CPI will rise once again along with energy prices.

The point is, it’s impossible to get a sense of the real damage from inflation without looking at the cumulative inflation in necessities (the goods and services that people are required to purchase on a regular basis to live day to day).  If we throw out the CPI distraction and look at common necessities since 2020, the economic picture is far more bleak.  

Overall food prices have soared by 25%-30% in only three years (again, this means that you are now paying 30% more this year for food than you were paying at the beginning of 2020). Chicken is up from $3 per pound to $4 per pound.  Beef is up from $3.50 to $6 per pound.  Corn is up from $3.50 per pound to $4.70 per pound.  Wheat is up from $5 per pound to $7 per pound.  In 2019 the average American household was spending $8100 on food annually; with a 30% increase, in 2023 Americans will be spending at least $10,500 per household.          

By the end of 2019, the average rental price of a single family home was around $1450 per month.  This year the price is around $2000 per month.  At the beginning of 2020, the median cost of a home was $320,000; by 2023 the price skyrocketed to an average of $416,000.  

For gasoline, the price in early 2020 was around $2.50 per gallon.  The price has fluctuated dramatically due to Biden’s manipulation of the market using strategic reserves, but still remains high today at $3.80 per gallon.  

The cost of electricity has risen swiftly, holding steady around .13 cents per kilowatt hour for a decade, then spiking to at least .17 cents per kilowatt hour by 2023.

Remember, most of these costs are static and are difficult to reduce through household spending cuts.  These are not items that are easily removed from a monthly budget and the expenditures add up to considerable pressure on consumer accounts.  This is probably why around 74% of the public in polls say that the economy is getting worse, not better.  It’s because government statistics are not highlighting the true inflationary crisis.

When we look at the cumulative climb of prices in necessities since before the inflation crisis officially began, the truth is that Americans now have to increase their wages by at least 25%-30% on average to maintain the same standard of living they had three years ago.  This is a disaster not seen since the stagflationary event of the 1970s and early 1980s.  If you have a strange feeling like your bank account is being rapidly drained in recent months, that’s because it is.    

And the 30-year mortgage rate is up 163% under Middle Class Joe.

Bidenomics! US Payrolls Were Likely 306,000 Lower Than Previously Estimated (July Jobs Growth Slowed To 2.2% YoY As M2 Money Growth Slowed To -3.7% YoY)

  • Preliminary benchmark revision smaller than some had projected
  • Biggest payrolls adjustment in transportation and warehousing

Are you surprised that the Biden Administration has been lying about job creation?? Not really since Biden compulsively lies about everything. Including his corruption.

US job growth was probably less robust in the year through March than previously reported, according to government data released Wednesday.

The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 306,000 for March of this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision.

Even without the revision, job growth has slowed to 2.2% YoY in July as M2 Money growth slowed to -3.7% YoY.

Let see what our Overlords say at the Jackson Hole Fed symposium.