Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
The US economy is slippin’ into darkness.
The Philly Fed NBOS General Business Activity Region Diffusion Index SA crashed to -22.8 in April.
And today’s Fed Funds Futures data points to a return of The Bernanke/Yellen “Low Rider” policy for rate management.
Why can’t the corporate media, AOC and Tucker Carlson be friends?
The US housing market is experiencing a slowdown as The Fed withdraws it outragous monetary stimlus.
The Case-Shiller 20 metro house price index grew at a rate of 036% year-over-year (YoY) in February.
Drifting into darkness, we have the West getting battered with my old hometown of San Francisco leading the pack at -10% YoY with Seattle down -9.3% YoY.
You know things are bad out west when Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago are gaining ground in prices. And Miami was up 10.8% YoY.
In the garden of Biden, not all is well for housing and the mortgage market.
It has been a tough road for the US economy since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Error. For the first time since July 2020 under President Trump, we have finally seen average hourly earnings growth YoY exceed average home price growth YoY.
In REAL terms (after substracting out headline inflation), we see that US housing market is still plagued by 24 straight months of negative wage growth with REAL wage growth still being lower than REAL home price growth.
Then we have Biden’s Marxist mortgage model, making those who who saved and showed care in managing their credit score given money to those who didn’t save and are terrible at financial management. Just like taxpayers trusting DC bureaucrats to carefully spend their money.
Biden’s new theme? “Let’s go crazy!”
This is life under Joe Biden. Record sovereign risk, record high debt, near 40-year highs in inflation, a hot war in Ukraine with Russia, failure of DOJ/FBI to do anything about the content of Hunter Biden’s laptop, repression of free speech, soaring crime, out of control borders. Should I keep going? It is a disastrous mess created by Obama/Biden and their creepy allies.
US sovereign risk just hit 130, the highest since CDS was recorded. This alligns with Biden/Congress massive borrow and spend policies where Federal debt has soared to it highest level in history. Inflation, while cooling, remains high.
On the housing front, REAL national home price growth is negative which makes sense since REAL average hourly wage growth has been negative for the last 24 months.
And just over the past year, commericial bank deposits are falling like a paralyzed falcon.
Biden and Obama’s chief hack in the White House, Susan Rice, are burning down the house.
Former Federal Reserve Chair and current Treaury Secretary Janet “The Evil Hobbit” Yellen has created numerous catestrophic messes thanks to Fed policy errors, both at The Fed and now as Treasury Secretary.
For example, the massive almost hysterical overreaction of The Fed under Powell (following Yellen’s Reign of Error) to the Covid economic shutdowns resulted in a massive surge in M2 Money growth [green line].
The result? REAL US housing prices soared while REAL averge hourly wage growth was negative for 24 straight months. THAT is the Fed error induced housing policy blunder. But it did increase the US homeownership rate (blue line).
A massive spike in REAL home prices coupled with 24 straight months of negative REAL hourly wages is hitting millenials hard. In fact, millennials are the slowest generation to hit 50% homeownership rate.
In fact, according to Apartment List, millenial rents are giving up on homeownership.
As a result, The Federal government is making yet another idiotic policy error to cope with the effects of Fed money printing. Subsidizing high-risk homebuyers — at the cost of those with good credit.
Under the new rules, high-credit buyers with scores ranging from 680 to above 780 will see a spike in their mortgage costs – with applicants who place 15% to 20% down payment experiencing the biggest increase in fees.
“This was a blatant and significant cut of fees for their highest-risk borrowers and a clear increase in much better credit quality buyers – which just clarified to the world that this move was a pretty significant cross-subsidy pricing change,” added Stevens, who is also the former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Jeder nach seinen Fähigkeiten, jedem nach seinen Bedürfnissen (German for “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” – Karl Marx.
Remember, the US got into trouble in the early 2000s by pushing homeownership and lowering credit standards for lower income households. It was a Clinton-era policy error called “The National Homeownership Strategy: Partners in the American Dream.” There is a video of then HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo (yes, THAT Andrew Cuomo) saying that the US should risk higher mortgage defaults so low income households could buy a home … then default. Frankly, Washington DC should get out of the housing business altogether. But nooooo. They are now going to make things even worse.
Janet Yellen: The most terrifying person in the world!
I feel like I am in the movie “Silent Hill” under Biden and Janet Yellen. But call it “Silent Economy.”
The conference board’s US Leasding Index model shrunk by -12.% in March, marking the 12th consecutive month of decline.
The townspeople from Silent Hill are running the Federal government under Obama/Biden.
We are on the Biden/Fed crazy train!
According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell -2.4% in March from February. And fell -21.97% since the same time last year (YoY).
And the median price of existing home sales fell -0.9% in March, the first negative growth since 2012.
This is like a Hardy Boys novel.
Well, it is not always sunny in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Fed Business Survey just crashed and burned to the worst reading since The Great Recession of 2008/2009.
Alarm! The Fed is expected to raise rates two more times before capitulating and lowering rates … again.
Between Biden’s “Reign of Error” and The Fed, I feel like I am living in the horror flick “Cabin In The Woods.”
The Biden Administration and Fed Board of Governors.
It’s only mid April and mortgage demand should be approaching it’s yearly high. But under Biden and The Fed, mortgage demand seems to have peaked earlier than normal. It’s already late in mortgage cycle.
Mortgage applications decreased 8.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 14, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 36 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Here are the numbers. And lousy they are.
Give me an F. Give me an E. Give me a D. What’s that spell? FED!
The US is beginning to be out of time for agreeing on a debt limit increase. But you don’t need a fortune teller to tell you that Biden and McCarthy will eventually agree to increase the US debt limit because everyone in Washington DC love to borrow and spend money. Regardless, we are seeing the 1-year US Credit Default Swap (SR, EUR) rise above 100, higher than during the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
This is occuring as the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains inverted and M2 Money growth has crashed.
But never fear! The Evil Hobbitt (aka, Janet Yellen) is still US Treasury Secretary. You know, the one who left interest rates too low for too long (TLFTL) as Federal Reserve Chair, then tightened as soon as Donald Trump was elected President.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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