One More Hike! Fed Expected To Raise Rates One More Time, Then Start Cutting Rates (Large Bank Failures, Slowing Economy)

Like the Phil Collins song “One More Night”, there will be one more hike.

The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to one more hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting. Then reversal of policy.

With the massive bank failures under Clueless Joe, The Fed will intervene to make the problem worse. And with Biden’s insane mortgage policies, Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy!” is the perfect themesong for Biden and The Fed.

US March Pending Home Sales Crash By -23.3% Since Last Year (YoY) And -5.2% Since Last Month (MoM) As Fed Retreats (16th Straight Month Of Negative Growth)

So much for the hopium spread by the Biden Administration and Realtors in general.

US Pending Home Sales crashed -23.3% YoY and -5.2% MoM for the 16th straight month of negative growth in pending home sales.

Wasting again in Bidenville, looking for my lost economy. Biden says Maga Republicans are to blame, but we know its Biden’s and Congress’s fault.

In The Garden Of Biden! US Wage Growth Is Above Home Price Growth For First Time Since Trump (But NOT After Controlling For Inflation) Biden Goes Crazy On Mortgage Rules!

In the garden of Biden, not all is well for housing and the mortgage market.

It has been a tough road for the US economy since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Error. For the first time since July 2020 under President Trump, we have finally seen average hourly earnings growth YoY exceed average home price growth YoY.

In REAL terms (after substracting out headline inflation), we see that US housing market is still plagued by 24 straight months of negative wage growth with REAL wage growth still being lower than REAL home price growth.

Then we have Biden’s Marxist mortgage model, making those who who saved and showed care in managing their credit score given money to those who didn’t save and are terrible at financial management. Just like taxpayers trusting DC bureaucrats to carefully spend their money.

Biden’s new theme? “Let’s go crazy!”

Biden Blitz! Small Business Optimism Shrinks To Below Covid Levels As Fed Retreats To Fight Inflation (Blitzkrieg Biden?)

Between inflation under Biden and The Fed’s counterattack to get inflation to 2%, I call this the Biden Blitz.

Unlike what the elites in Washington DC think, small business are the cornerstone of the US economy. Unfortunately, small business optimism is getting crushed and just fell in March to a level lower than that found during the Covid economic shutdowns of 2020. HOW is it possible for small businesses to be even less optimistic than it was in April 2002, the nadir of the Covid economic shutdown?

Small business optimism soared in November 2016 after the election of Donald Trump and remained high (above 100) until Covid struck in March 2020. Small business optimism rose above 100 again with the massive money printing by The Fed (green line) and Federal spending spree. But as M2 Money growth slowed, small business optimism hasn’t been above 100 since August 2021. It has been all downhill since then as The Fed started to raise The Fed Funds Target Rate quite rapidly.

NFIB small business credit conditions are negative at -9.0 and sinking like The Titanic.

Biden is the face of big business (big banks, big pharma, big tech, big defense, big labor unions, big media, etc.). Biden just told Al Roker that he is indeed running for reelection, supported by …. big banks, big pharma, big tech, big defense, big labor unions, big media, etc.

Biden is no longer a President, but an old-time preacher screaming about MAGA Republicans as if they were demons. This is called Blitzkrieg Biden.

The Death Of King Dollar: How Biden, The Fed And Congress Are Killing The US Dollar (Down -11% After 9/27/22)

Biden, The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending are killing King Dollar. Countries that used to use the US Dollar as reserve currency are dumping the dollar like a month old burrito.

What countries are dumping the dollar?

A lengthy list of countries are moving away from using the US dollar, which has long been the reserve currency of the world. The following countries are in the process of reducing their dependency on the dollar.

  • Russia
  • China
  • Iran
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE
  • India

The result?

Biden has vacationed 40% of the days he has been President. In his defense, he has probably needed that time to hunt down the classified documents has left strewn around his his home, vacation home, the Penn-Biden Center and Chinatown in DC.

Faith? Foreign Central Banks Bailing On US Treasuries (Japan And China Among Others Are Fleeing The US Titanic)

Apparently, foreign Central Banks have lost faith in Biden and The Federal Reserve. Foreign Central Banks are selling US Treasuries.

Other than The Fed, Japan and China are the two largest holders of US Treasuries. And they are bailing.

Wake Biden up before all the Central Banks go-go.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Remains Much Lower Than Pre-Covid (Massive Federal Spending Spree And Fed Money Printing Failed To Return Consumer Confidence)

Consumer considence (according to the Conference Board) remains below pre-Covid levels despite the massive Federal spending spree and Fed money printing).

The Fed Never Died! Deutsche Bank Slumps in Resurgence of European Bank Worries As Fed Balance Sheet Expands … Again

The Federal Reserve never died. In fact, The Fed is growing its balance sheet again. Why? A slowing economy and weakness in the banking sector (thanks to inflation and the Fed trying to get inflation back to 2%.

And the banking fiasco keeps rolling, particularly in Europe where Credit Suisse has been in the news for failing and now my former employer, Deutsche Bank (aka, The Teutonic Titanic).

Deutsche Bank AG became the latest focus of the banking turmoil in Europe as ongoing concern about the industry sent its shares slumping the most in three years and the cost of insuring against default rising.

The bank, which has staged a recovery in recent years after a series of crises, said Friday it will redeem a tier 2 subordinated bond early. Such moves are usually intended to give investors confidence in the strength of the balance sheet, though the share price reaction suggests the message isn’t getting through.

“It is a clear case of the market selling first and asking questions later,” said Paul de la Baume, senior market strategist at FlowBank SA. “Traders do not have the risk appetite to hold positions through the weekend, given the banking risk and what happened last week with Credit Suisse and regulators.”

Deutsche Bank slumped as much as 15%, the biggest decline since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020. It was the worst performer in an index of European bank stocks, which fell as much as 5.7%. Crosstown rival Commerzbank AG, Spain’s Banco de Sabadell SA and France’s Societe Generale SA also saw steep drops.

The widespread declines undermine hopes among authorities that the rescue of Credit Suisse Group AG last weekend would stabilize the broader sector. Central banks from the Federal Reserve to the Bank of England this week raised interest rates once again, keeping their focus on inflation amid hopes that the worst of the financial turmoil was past. 

All week, regulators and company executives have sought to reassure traders about the health of the banking industry. Deutsche Bank management board member Fabrizio Campelli said Thursday that the government-brokered takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS is “no indication” of the state of European banks.

Standard Chartered Plc Chief Executive Bill Winters said Friday that while there are still some issues to be addressed, “it seems that the acute phase of the crisis is done.”

The latest moves in Europe follow losses in US banks, which tumbled Thursday even after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers that regulators would be prepared for further steps to protect deposits if needed. 

And apparently bank bailouts never died. They just got relabeled.

And on growing banking fears, the 10-year Treasury yield is down -11.7 basis points.

Like EF Hutton Ads, Yellen Speaks And Markets Crash (SVB Increased Loan To Regulators Before Its Collapse … Where Were The Regulators?)

Like the old EF Hutton ads, when Treasury Secretary Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen speaks, people listens. Particularly when she reverses course after bailing out he Silicon Valley/Big Tech buddies by guaranteeing deposits. Then in a US Senate hearing AFTER Fed Chair Powell tried to calm markets, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Senators yesterday that ‘Blanket insurance’ of bank deposits is not being discussed. Look out below!

So why did the Biden Administration and Janet Yellen bail out Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), regulated by San Francisco Federal Reserve (run by Mary Daly)? And then tell the US Senate “That’s it!”??

Where was Mary Daly when SVB increased loans to INSIDERS before its collapse? And will Daly/Yellen actually punish the CEO of SVB who jetted off to Maui after the collapse rather

Perhaps SF Fed’s Mary Daly should be prosecuted for negligence. Or thinking that SVB is unreserved.

The Fed’s “Doomsday Machine”! Catching Up From Bernanke/Yellen’s “Too Low For Too Long” Policies (US Treasury 2-Year Yields UP 16.1 Basis Points)

I feel like I am watching the Star Trek original series episode “The Doomsday Machine” as former Fed Chair and current US Treasury Secretary effectively just guaranteed ALL US bank deposits. Aka, a massive bank bailout. The episode was about a robot space vehicle that destroy planets … and anything in its path. And if it changed course to destroy something, it gradually returned to its original destructive path. Like The Federal Reseve.

But after a few days of declining Treasury yields because of the mess created by Bernanke/Yellen’s too low for too long policies, and the Biden/Congress insane spending, the US Treasury 2-year yield is up 16.1 basis points.

Whether it was politcally motivated to protect Obama/Biden or Obama/Biden’s economic recovery was terrible, The Fed only raised their target rate once before Trump’s election. And then Yellen raised rates like crazy. Only to hand her mess off to Powell who had to drop rates like a rock and massively expand the balance sheet … again … to fight Covid.

The Federal Reserve from a car on Constitution Avenue in Washington DC.