The Comeback Kid? US Personal Savings Rate Is -51.5% YoY To Cope With Bidenflation Raging At 8.5% YoY (Meanwhile The Fed Is “Slothing” Its Balance Sheet Reduction)

It is amazing that Biden is rising in the polls, simply because he got several inflation-generating, crony pay-off bills passed through a Democrat-controlled Congress. Even more amazing is that Americans aren’t more furious with Biden given that inflation is still raging at 8.5% YoY and the US Personal Savings Rate to cope with raging prices is at -51.5% YoY.

It looks like one quick fix to the inflation problem is for The Federal Reserve to shrink its balance sheet. But they are taking their own sweet time doing it.

And then we have the S&P 500 index which has done poorly since Powell and The Fed have undertaken their “fight inflation” mantra caused by their own folly and Biden’s green, anti-fossil fuel policies. Not to mention Congress spending like drunken sailors in port.

But the same is going on in Europe where inflation is even higher than in the USA and the EUR/USD is plunging like a paralyzed falcon.

And then we have Biden shrinking the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (orange line).

And in Europe, we have Germany suffering through a horrible energy price spike.

Finally, here is a baseball card of former Dodger pitcher Billy Loes. He almost reminds me of Biden trying to think through a complex problem like student loan debt forgiveness that may cost taxpayers an average of $2,000 yet buy votes for Democrats at the midyear elections.

Powell Channels Mr T As Dow Drops 1,000 Points, Home Builder Index Plummets (UMich Buying Conditions For Houses Remains Near 1982 Levels)

‘‘We will keep at it until we are confident the job (i.e. killing inflation) is done.’’

Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole speech

Interviewer : What’s your prediction for the market?

Clubber Lang (Mr T) : My prediction?

Interviewer : Yes, your prediction.

[Clubber looks into camera]

Clubber Lang : Pain!

Of course, Friday was one of those “Black Fridays” for investors. And pension funds.

The Dow Jone Industrial Average fell -1008.38 points after Powell’s “Mr T” remarks on pain. That was a whopping -3%. The NASDAQ composite index fell almost -4%.

Equity markets struggled in Europe as well, particularly the German DAX index.

The UMich Buying conditions for houses rose slightly, but remains near the lowest level since 1982.

Clubber Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman.

The Case-Shiller house price numbers are due out Tuesday for June and it is expected that they will show a significant slowing in home prices. Biden and Clubber Powell could then take “credit” for slowing “inflation.”

Q2 US GDP 2nd Reading Improves … To Just Plain Bad (GDP Price Worsens To 8.9% QoQ As Consumption Growth Dwindles To 1.5% QoQ)

The elite class “economists” (aka, cheerleaders) are meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week. But while they are planning our future, the revision to the miserable Q2 Real GDP report came out this morning.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.

So, the second pass at measuring Real GDP produced a slightly better number (-0.6% vs -0.9%).

But the GDP PRICE index revision worsened from 8.7% to 8.9%. Look at REAL personal consumption (yellow line) as M2 Money growth slows.

Let’s see how things go at The Fed party at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It is appropriate for The Fed to hold their party/meeting at Jackson Hole (Teton County) since it has the highest concentration of wealth per household than any other county in the nation.

Yee-haw!

M2 Money Growth Slows Further As Assets (Bitcoin, Home Prices) Fall With Slower Growth (Biden Helps Drive College Tuition Even Higher With Student Loan Forgiveness)

Biden is the opposite of the miserly Scrooge McDuck. He gives billions to Ukraine and spends trillions on various Federal projects without batting an eye as to how and who is going to pay for all the spending. And Biden’s latest election pandering is no different.

Speaker Pelosi claims that Biden’s bold action on student loan forgiveness is a strong step in Democrats’ fight to … make college even MORE expensive and lead to colleges hiring even MORE administrators (aka, apparatchiks) making colleges even MORE bogged-down in red tape.

And Speaker Pelosi, the costs of Biden’s midterm election buy of votes is estimated to be $300 BILLION. And a report from the Brookings Institution observed that one-third of student debt is owed by the wealthiest 20% of households, while only 8% is owned by the bottom 20%.

So, Biden is letting AOC write-off $10k of her student loan obligation. Bear in mind that the $10k forgiveness is taxed by The Federal government as income.

It looks like The Fed will have to expand the M2 Money supply to pay for “Billions Biden’s” spending spree.

I wish Biden, Pelosi and Schumer were more like Dwight Schrute from Dunder-Mifflin.

The Housing Blues! US Pending Home Sales Tank -22.5% YoY In July As Fed Tightens And M2 Money Growth Slows

Me and the (housing) blues.

At The Fed continues to tighten to fight inflation, pending home sales in July crashed and burned. That is, pending home sales fell -22.5% in July as M2 Money growth slowed

If I was still teaching at Ohio State or Chicago, I would ask the students if they see the relation between M2 Money growth and pending home sales.

Biden’d? US Mortgage Applications Hit Lowest Level In 22 Years (Purchase Apps DOWN -21% YoY, Refi Apps DOWN -83% YoY As Fed Tightens To Combat Bidenflation)

US mortgage applications just hit the lowest levels in 22 years, January 2000 as The Federal Reserve continues monetary tightening to combat Bidenflation.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 19, 2022.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Notice that The Federal Reserve is slower than the Geico Sloth is removing balance sheet stimulus.

MBA mortgage applications just declined to their lowest level in 22 years (January 2000) as The Fed has begun raising rates to fight inflation caused by 1) excessive monetary stimulus since late 2008, 2) Biden’s green energy policies driving up transportation costs, 3) distortionary Federal spending (e.g., Covid relief, infrastructure bills and now green energy/IRS spending by Biden/Pelosi/Schumer).

Here is the data summary for the latest MBA applications report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell shrinking The Fed’s balance sheet.

US New Home Sales Crash And Burn In July, Down -32.26% YoY (-12.65% MoM) While Average Price Rises +19.57% From June

Well, new home sales aren’t coming to the rescue for affordable housing.

July’s New Home Sales crashed and burned. At -32.26% YoY. This is happening as M2 Money growth has declined.

For the month of July, new home sales were down a staggering -`12.65%. However, the average price of new homes rose 19.57% from June. Median price of new home sales were also up 5.91% from June, a large surge.

The supply of new homes? The highest level since the housing collapse of 2008.

US 30yr Mortgage Rate Rises To Near 6% Housing Affordability WORST Since 2006 Housing Bubble (Yield Curve Remains Inverted)

Baby, let me take you home is getting more difficult as mortgage rates approach 6%.

The National Association of Realtors’ Homebuyer Affordability Index for fixed-rate mortgages is now at the lowest reading since 2006 and the peak of the 2005-2007 housing bubble that burst catastrophically.

The reason? The Federal Reserve, in their attempt to put out the inflation fire (caused by 1) excessive monetary stimulus since late 2008, 2) rampant Federal spending and 3) Biden’s green energy policies, driving up prices.

If we compare mortgage rates with the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve, you can see that the yield curve remains inverted (historically a bad sign). This may signal an eventual loosening of monetary policy by March 2023.

Crossing The Fiscal Rubicon! Treasury Debt In Q2 >$10 TRILLION Than Real GDP (And Getting Worse As M2 Money Velocity Crashed And Burned)

The phrase “crossing the Rubicon” is an idiom that means that one is passing a point of no return. Its meaning comes from allusion to the crossing of the river Rubicon by Julius Caesar in early January 49 BC.

Indeed, the US crossed the FISCAL Rubicon in Q4 2012. That is when US Treasury Public Debt outstanding exceeded Real GDP. And the gap has been growing ever since.

In case you were wondering why M2 Money Velocity is so low, it is because the US is in constant crisis management mode as an excuse to spend trillions of dollars …. that generates progressively lower real GDP.

They built this nation on MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) which translates to the Federal government and Federal Reserve just wanting to spend trillions and trillions. Since 2005 (the peak of the housing bubble), the US Federal Reserve has increased the M2 Money stock more than real GDP growth in almost every quarter.

I remember when macroeconomists used to say “Everything is beautiful … as long as M2 Money growth is LESS than real GDP growth.” But we have apparently shifted to MMT when Everything is beautiful as long as there is a crisis and Congress can spend trillions.

Now Biden/Congress are spending billions in trying to reduce inflation (seriously, only in Washington DC would they think that massive spending bills would REDUCE inflation).

You might as well face it, we’re addicted to gov (spending).

Achy-Breaky Fed? US 30Yr Mortgage Rate Rises 31 Basis Points Over Last Week As Recession Probability Increases (How Will Fed Act?)

We have the achy-breaky Fed.

The Federal Reserve is facing an interesting problem. On the one hand, they vow to fight inflation by raising their target rate. At the same time, the probability of a recession in one year has grown to 50%.

Bankrate’s 30yr mortgage rate rose 31 basis points over the past week as 1) inflation probability increased and 2) Fed Funds Futures point to an O/N rate of 3.523% by the December FOMC meeting (up from 2.50% today). Growing recession probability typically results in Fed intervention and a lowering of rates while growing inflation typically results in Fed tightening. What’s The Fed to do??

Fed Funds Futures point to The Fed raising their target rate to 3.660 by March 2023, then loosening again.

Will The Fed sing “Let’s get started” when it comes to shrinking their balance sheet? Or will the go into “loose as a goose” mode again?

Will The Fed consider that Public Debt grew from $7.84 trillion at the peak of the previous housing bubble in June 2005 to a whopping $30.7 trillion in August 2022? That is a 290% growth in Federal government debt since June 2005. With The Fed fighting inflation, the 2yr Treasury yield is smoking, making it more expensive to fund Federal government operations.

At least The Fed is in for one helluva ride!