Not exactly the economic report that the Biden Administration and The Federal Reserve were hoping for. To quote The Rolling Stones, “You can’t always get what you want.” Actually, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is more of a BLEEDING economic indicator as we enter 2024.
NEW YORK, Jan. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.
“The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”
The annual growth rate of the LEI remains deeply negative.
On an annual basis (YoY), the LEI is down -6.9%.
Am I surprised that the LEI is bleeding so badly? Not with “Vacation Joe” Biden at the helm! Or his eloquent Climate Envoy John Kerry!
Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% MoM in December, worse than the +0.3% expected, leaving sales down
Source: Bloomberg
Total Existing Home Sales in December 2023 were 3.78mm – the lowest SAAR since 2010…
Source: Bloomberg
But, on an annual basis, this is the worst year on record (back to at least 1995)..
Source: Bloomberg
“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”
Existing Home Sales were flat in the Northeast, lower in the MidWest and the South, and up marginally in the West (driven by single-family-home sales as condo sales declined)…
Source: Bloomberg
Last month, the number of previously owned homes for sale dropped to 1 million, the lowest since March.
At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 3.2 months.
Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight resale market.
That lack of inventory is helping to keep prices elevated.
The median selling price climbed 4.4% to $382,600 in December from a year ago, reflecting increases in all four regions. Prices hit a record of $389,800 in 2023.
Source: Bloomberg
But, with mortgage rates having tumbled (and given the lagged responses), are sales about to start rising again?
Source: Bloomberg
So The Fed managed to kill sales, collapse inventories, send home prices higher, destroying affordability… and now what is going to happen?
As only Clueless Joe can do, Biden brags about something that he has nothing to do with: falling mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates (30-year conforming rate) are up 392 basis points or a whopping 142% under Biden. Mortgage rates are down from the 2023 peak of 7.83% to 6.69% as of yesterday. One reason that mortgage rates are stable is that M2 Money GROWTH has been negative since the end of 2022.
Of course, it is The Federal Reserve acting to slow down inflation caused by excessive Federal government spending that is leading to mortgage rates declining, not Biden’s open border policy or his green agenda.
But for the future, does Biden know something that we don’t know? Like is Biden buying into the hypothetical Disease X (20 times worse than Covid) that was discussed in Davos at the World Economic Forum. If a major pandemic is unleashed (again) in the election year, The Fed would have to cut rates (again) to offset the damage done by another round of goverment economic shutdowns. Not to mention the shutting down of schools again.
Or did Biden just tell us that he knows the US economy is slipping and The Fed will come riding to the rescue of Biden (or Newsom or Michelle Obama) like in an old John Ford western with John Wayne. That would also lead to declining mortgage rates in 2024.
But all is not well in the banking sector. Use of Fed funding tool jumps most since April to fresh record: Banks borrowed record sum of $161.5bn from Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program, w/demand at $14.3bn climbing the most in 9 months as they piled into a reliable arbitrage trade just weeks ahead of its scheduled closure.
The availability of mortgage credit remains VERY TIGHT.
Whether its Disease X (unleashed The Kraken!) or just a slowing economy, The Fed (the master manipulator) will likely cut rates in 2024. Making mortgage rates come down.
More worrying is the fact that hope appears to be dwindling fast as the six-month-forecast for the survey plunged back into contraction (from +12.6 to -4.00)…
Source: Bloomberg
Philly Fed’s demise is consistent with the collapse of hope as ‘soft’ survey data has slumped in the last month, back to its weakest since July (as ‘hard’ data improves relative to expectations)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the bright side for the doves, the dis-inflationary trend remains in tact as priced paid and prices received both plunged in January. However, we highlight the fact that Philly businesses expect price pressure to return in the next six months…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, the ‘bad news’ in this report should buoy stocks and bonds (lower inflation and lower growth enables sooner and faster cuts)… But will it.
While the Nestea plunge was meant to be refreshing, the housing starts plunge is not refreshing at all. Just another warning about the shortcomings of Bidenomics.
Analysts were right in direction but wrong in magnitude – too bearish. Housing starts declined 4.3% MoM (vs -8.7% MoM exp and +10.8% MoM in November, a big downward revision from the initial +14.8% MoM). Building permits also rose more than expected (+1.9% MoM vs +0.6% exp but saw November’s 2.5% MoM decline upwardly revised to -2.1% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
On a SAAR basis, Housing Starts and Building Permits are higher YoY
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, single-family permits rose for the 12th month in a row (i.e. every month in 2023) but single-family home starts plunged 8.6% MoM after surging 15.4% MoM in November… that is the biggest monthly decline since July 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps the optimism among homebuilders about future sales is a little overdone given their actions?
Source: Bloomberg
And why would starts be down so much if rates are tumbling?
Source: Bloomberg
Still along way to go for mortgages to be affordable…
Source: Bloomberg
Will less supply of new homes do anything to help the Shelter component of CPI (hint – no!).
President Biden still shuffles around mumbling about Maga Republicans and defending democracy (while gettig his DOJ and affiliates to prosecute his leading Presidential opponent) even though …. consumers continue to struggle. While Biden is in wonderland, American consumers are in hell.
Savings as a percentage of GDP is actually NEGATIVE as sticky price inflation remains above 4%.
Any good news? At least the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-5Y) is normalizing.
How true!
Speaking of Biden, is this photo real? With AI, I wonder.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at 4.108% after briefly getting to 4.117%, the highest since Dec. 13. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by around 11 basis points to trade at 4.335%.
December’s retail sales data indicated strong consumer demand at the holidays. Retail sales increased 0.6% for the month, above economists’ estimates of 0.4%, as compiled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%, which also topped a 0.2% estimate.
On Tuesday, yields jumped after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested that while the central bank will likely cut rates this year, it may take its time.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, more European Central Bank members indicated that markets were getting ahead of themselves on rate cut projections.
The president of the Dutch central bank, Klaas Knot, told CNBC Wednesday that the euro zone’s central bank looked at overall financial conditions, and that “the more easing the market has already done for us, the less likely we will cut rates.” Knot was referring to the fact that higher stock and bond prices in the fourth quarter of last year acted as the equivalent of easier interest rate policy, while lower prices act as the equivalent of tighter policy.
Rising interest rates are going to bite a big chunk out of The Fed’s massive ass (I mean balance sheet). Of course, The Fed sends the bill to Treasury. Gee, no wonder Biden/Yellen want so much money!
There is something wrong with letting aging politicians like Biden (81), Grassley (90), Pelosi (83), etc. borrow vast sums of money to spend when they will likely not be around for another 10 years.
The -43.7 print was a stunning 10 standard deviations below expectations of a bounce to -5.0…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, it was a bloodbath. New orders slumped more than 38 points to minus 49.4, the weakest since April 2020, while shipments dropped by the most since August. Worse still, the index of prices paid for materials increased to a three-month high.
But hope remains high as the six-month outlook for overall activity improved to a three-month high, suggesting manufacturing will stabilize at a weak level. The measure of the outlook for capital expenditures increased to the highest since April 2023, suggesting a pickup in investment.
However, the spread between current reality and a hopeful future is at near record highs (record Ex-COVID-lockdowns)…
Housing is simply unaffordable under Bidenomics, a strange brew of big corporate green subsidies, political handouts (any wonder why Biden is forgiving student loans in an election year?) and bad Fed policy errors.
But young Americans don’t always have a sugar daddy like Hunter Biden has who are willing to pay for rent for political parasites like those in Washington DC.
Young adults used to dream of moving out of their parents’ homes and into their own apartments, but living alone has become a luxury not everyone can afford. Not surprising, since home prices under Biden have risen 32.5% while 30-year mortgage rates are up a staggering 140.5% under Clueless Joe.
But in growth terms (year-over-year), White House Propagandists Karine Jean Pierre and John Kirby will no doubt focus on the cooling of housing prices and mortgage rates … although both are reaccelerating.
Rent CPI is up 19.2% under Clueless Joe.
How does this impact younger Americans? According to a recent study by Intuit Credit Karma, 31% of Gen Zers are living with their parents because they can’t afford to rent or buy their own place. Overall, 11% of American adults still live at home with their parents.
“The current housing market has many Americans making adjustments to their living situations, including relocating to less-expensive cities and even moving back in with their families,” said Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Intuit Credit Karma.
Even young adults who live alone are reconsidering their living arrangements because costs are too high.
About a quarter (27%) of Gen Zers reported that they could no longer afford rent and 25% said they’ll have to move back in with family to make ends meet.
Millennials are in the same boat: 30% say rent is unaffordable, and 25% are thinking about moving back in with their parents.
The research is consistent with a 2021 study conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, which showed that one in three adults ages 18 to 34 live with their parents.
In a 2022 study, Pew Research also found that the percentage of Americans living with their parents has increased steadily since 2000. Pew calls these living arrangements “multigenerational households,” and said young adults ages 25 to 29 are most likely to cohabit with their parents.
Different studies, but all tell the same story: Finances are the top reason young adults are still living with family.
Housing and rental costs rise
It’s hardly surprising that young adults are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs and living expenses have skyrocketed since the pandemic, and younger generations have faced the most financial hardship.
As Creditnews Research reports, Millennials and Gen Zers have been locked out of homeownership due to rising home prices, elevated interest rates, and stagnant real wages (adjusted for inflation).
For example, in 2023, Millennials accounted for only 28% of homebuyers despite being in their prime home-buying age. Gen Zers barely made a dent in the housing market, accounting for a paltry 4% of all buyers.
According to Fed data, average home prices were $431,000 as of the third quarter of 2023.
The rental market isn’t much better. Although rent costs have declined for three straight months, landlords are still asking for $1,964 per month on average, per Redfin data. Average rents were below $1,650 at the start of Covid.
But the problem of surging rents goes back much longer than that. According to a report from Moody’s Analytics, rent prices grew 135% between 1999 and 2022, while average incomes for all age groups were up 77% over the same period.
In terms of earning potential, younger generations are at the lower end of the totem pole, so they’re more likely to be affected by rising rent prices.
Where’s the “strong economy” everyone always talks about?
While the U.S. economy has steered clear of recession and unemployment remains near historic lows, Americans are still struggling to afford basic expenses. This is especially true for younger generations.
A 2023 study conducted by Deloitte found that more than half of Millennials and Gen Zers were living paycheck to paycheck. Perhaps shockingly, 37% of Millennials and 46% of Gen Z reported taking another part-time or full-time job just to afford their bills.
Working longer hours and barely scraping by is one of the main reasons why younger adults feel they’re worse off financially than their parents were at their age.
An August 2023 study conducted by The Harris Poll found that 74% of Millennials and 65% of Gen Zers believe they are starting further behind financially than previous generations.
“They’re telling us they can’t buy into that American dream the way that their parents and grandparents thought about it—because it’s not attainable,” said The Harris Poll CEO John Gerzema.
Remember, Clueless Joe Biden is in charge!(or Obama, take your pick).
For visitors, Universal Studios Florida offers a chance to visit a fantastical land full of wizards, Minions and various characters from NBC Universal’s many film and television properties. But for the roughly 28,000 men and women who work at the 840-acre theme park and resort complex in Orlando, the troubles of the real world — like the rising cost of housing — are not far away.
Central Florida has seen some of the nation’s fastest pandemic-era rent increases, thanks to a confluence of job growth, migration and housing underproduction that has put a strain on residents. The average tenant in the region saw their monthly rent jump by $600 between early 2020 and early 2023. According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area has one of the worst affordable housing shortages in the US, with only 15 available units for every 100 extremely low-income renter households.
The dire need for workforce housing is behind the entertainment conglomerate’s latest project in Central Florida: a 1,000-unit mixed-use development, set to open in 2026, that promises to give tenants who work in the service industry a short commute to the constellation of tourist attractions and hotels nearby. To launch the project, Universal donated 20 acres of land adjacent to the Orange County convention center. Called Catchlight Crossings and built in partnership with local developer Wendover Housing Partners, the project broke ground in November.
Universal’s nearby rival is also wading into affordable housing. In 2022, Walt Disney Co.announced plans to donate 80 acres for a proposed 1,450-unit affordable development a few miles to the southwest. Also set to open in 2026, the project would be built near Flamingo Crossings Village, a campus for participants in Disney’s college internship program that also leases units to some Disney World cast members. (Oh great, brainwashing by woke Disney types).
As housing costs in Central Florida have soared, the theme park giants have faced criticism for underpaying workers. In June, Universal raised its minimum wage by $2 to $17 an hour, while Disney, which employs 82,00 people in Florida, agreed to bump its starting hourly rate to $18 in 2024. Still, both lag behind the $18.85 that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Living Wage Calculator estimates would be needed to support an adult with no children in Orange County.
Visitors throng Disney’s Magic Kingdom in Orlando.Photographer: David Ryder/Bloomberg
Even smaller theme parks in more affordable areas have become homebuilders in an effort to ease the housing crunch. In May, Indiana’s Holiday World opened a $7 million development called Compass Commons, which is meant to provide seasonal housing for up to 136 employees. It will replace a proposed theme park attraction that was set to open last summer.
Such partnerships between entertainment industry employers, developers and local government represent the latest spin on a solution for the ongoing scarcity of apartments for lower-income households. Catchlight Crossings is part of Universal’s Housing to Tomorrow initiative, which was inspired by the Orange County mayor’s Housing for All Task Force. The company represents almost 10% of the tax base of Orange County, which includes Orlando.
“What could we do that would be more than just the typical corporate response?” said John Sprouls, executive vice president and chief administrative officer at Universal Parks and Resorts. “If you’re going to provide affordable housing, providing affordable housing where the jobs are sure makes a lot of sense.”
The Truly Missing Middle
Workforce housing is a much-needed housing type without a precise definition. Unlike affordable housing, which must meet stringent rental rates matched to specific income levels to qualify for government support and subsidies — typically 40% of units need to be priced to support those households who make 60% of the area median income — workforce housing stands as more of a catch-all term. Some define it as housing that serves those making between 80% and 120% of median area income. Often, the term is used to invoke housing for teachers, first responders and other public servants who have been increasingly priced out of expensive metros.
Over the last decade, and through the recent pandemic-era surge in apartment construction, developers have largely ignored the lower end of the market, focusing instead on Class A apartments. Beginning in 2013, half or more of units delivered each year were considered high-end or luxury, according to statistics from the National Multifamily Housing Council. Only since the middle of 2022 has that shifted towards Class B, or more affordable units.
Seeking lower production costs and rents, a handful of big developers have created new sub-brands of apartments designed to appeal to less-monied tenants. Grubb Properties launched a series of “car-light” developments called Link, which emphasize accessibility to major urban employers, while Greystar’s Modern Living Solutions concept offers modular multifamily buildings that are assembled on site from factory-built elements in an effort to trim construction costs.
To promote more construction of this type of housing, a bipartisan coalition of federal lawmakers recently introduced the Workforce Housing Tax Credit Act. Like the low-income housing tax credit, the proposed legislation would provide tax credit to investors who build affordable apartments. The bill’s sponsors, including Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, say the credit would finance approximately 344,000 affordable rental homes. It’s been a pet issue for Wyden in particular; 70% of Oregon school districts have built or rented housing to provide support for their teachers.
Nationwide, the US is short approximately 2.2 million workforce units, according to a 2022 Fannie Mae study. Central Florida’s service-based economy has left it with one of the highest levels of need, Wendover founder and Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Wolf said. There are roughly 100,000 people living within a five-mile radius of Catchlight Crossings who would income-qualify for the development.
Besides pools for residents, the proposed Universal development will include such amenities as a preschool and adult education center.Credit: Wendover Housing Partners
Rents at the Universal-led project will range from $400 to $2,200, depending on income qualifications (the average two-bedroom unit in the area rents for just shy of $1,900 a month). The development will also contain medical offices, retail, community space including pools and fitness centers, bike and walking paths and a tuition-free Bezos Academy preschool and adult education center. A transit center will connect residents to buses, ride-hailing services and company shuttles; a stop on the proposed Sunshine Corridor, a new east-west rail line that’s designed to help tourism workers get around, may take shape nearby.
“You’re not creating an economic ghetto,” Wolf said. “You’re creating a lifestyle enhancement for so many people, giving folks the ability for mobility.”
The theme park giant owns a few thousand acres in the area, so this was a relatively small donation, according to Sprouls. It also comes during a time of booming profits: Central Florida’s tourism industry generated a record $87.6 billion in economic impact in 2022. And since Universal transferred the land via a 501c3 charity with deed restrictions, the donation can lower development costs and help ensure long-term affordability; lots of affordable housing tends to revert back to market-rate pricing after a set term.
Employer-sponsored projects like Catchlight Crossings can’t mandate that only their employees can be tenants — that would violate fair housing rules. But for a customer-facing company like Universal, working to close the region’s housing gap can pay direct benefits, Sprouls said. When employees can’t find housing nearby and need to drive hours to get to work, it impacts not just their performance, but the guest experiences that drive satisfaction and repeat visits.
Park guests arrive at the Universal Studios theme park in Orlando in 2020.Photographer: Zack Wittman/Bloomberg
“It helps us to be able to recruit because people are able to have jobs here,” Sprouls said. “Salaries go into making you an attractive employer in the area, but you also need to make this an attractive place to live.”
Corporate Housing’s Mixed Record
Still, it remains to be seen if privately financed efforts like the Universal and Disney investments can have a significant impact on the lives of local renters. Other industries, most notably tech, have poured hundreds of millions of dollars and even billions into financing the construction of workforce housing near their headquarters. Amazon.com Inc., Google and Meta Platforms Inc. have all done variations of this kind of development, with mixed results. Many such efforts took off after severe backlash to the impact tech jobs had on local housing markets, and most were in the forms of loans, financing and leases, which can be helpful but not exactly game-changing. Recent swings in interest rates and increases in housing costs, not to mention struggles in the tech industry, have curtailed many of these programs.
“There was a lot of energy, and then there wasn’t,” Alex Schafran, a visiting scholar at San Jose State University’s Institute for Metropolitan Studies and a former consultant for Facebook’s housing initiative, told the Guardian. “The balloon didn’t pop overnight, but now there’s very little air in it.”
And the support of powerful local employers can’t inoculate these projects from community pushback. At a town meeting for the Disney project in September, residents raised a host of familiar objections about traffic congestion, school crowding and site location. When it comes to building multifamily developments, even Goofy has to contend with NIMBYs.
Wendover’s Wolf argues that while the financing part is critical, it may not be enough. His firm has been very involved in pushing for more government support for the affordable housing projects they specialize in. Associate Ryan von Weller, for example, was among the local developers who consulted with Florida lawmakers on a state bill, Live Local, which directed more than $700 million into supporting affordable housing. (Sprouls said Universal won’t see any tax benefits from their land donation.) But Wolf believes the area’s big corporate employers need to play a bigger role in solving this crisis.
“We need your involvement in it in a very direct way to work alongside us, to make this a success,” he said. “It’s not just a simple check and walk away. We need the land. We need cooperation.”
Here is the REAL problem with the lack of housing stock. Growth of new housing units has slowed to negative speeds as mortgage rates soared, but aren’t growing again with declining mortgage rates which remain relatively high. Add in the 11 million or so illegal immigrants crossing the border and we have a major problem.
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