Movin’ On Up To The Dark Side! US Core Inflation Rises To Highest Level (6.6% YoY) Since 1982, Bond Volatility Now Highest Since Covid Lockdown (REAL Weekly Wage Growth Declines To -3.8% YoY)

The US is movin’ on up, to the dark side, while DC elites live in deluxe apartments in the sky. The US is movin’ on up to the dark side, we finally got a piece of the Banana Republic pie. … And its tastes horrible!

Today, the BLS released its inflation data. And it was terrible.

To begin with, headline inflation remains high at 8.2% YoY while CORE inflation (headline less food and energy) rose to 6.6% YoY.

Meanwhile, REAL average weekly earnings growth YoY further declined to -3.8% YoY.

On the bond front, the Bank of America ICE bond volatility index rose to Great Recession/banking crisis levels (also achieved during the Covid government shutdowns).

But back to the low-ball BLS inflation data. The biggest gain in price is … fuel oil at 33.1% YoY. Food at home rose 13.0% while gasoline rose 18.2%. Rent, according to the BLS, rose 6.6%.

Biden has probably been told by Ron Klain and Susan Rice that this is a good report.

US Core Inflation Seen Returning to 40-Year High as Rents Rise (Producer Price Index Higher Than Expected At 8.5% YoY)

The US Producer Price Index (Final Demand) printed at a higher than expected 8.5% YoY, throwing cold water on the notion that inflation is “transitory.”

A key US inflation measure due Thursday is set to return to a four-decade high, underscoring broad and elevated price pressures that are pushing the Federal Reserve toward yet another large interest-rate hike next month.

The so-called core consumer price index that excludes food and energy is projected to rise 0.4% in September from the prior month and 6.5% from a year earlier, matching the rate seen in March that was the highest since 1982.

The overall CPI, however, is expected to decelerate to a still-rapid 8.1% annual pace, restrained by a decline in gasoline prices, based on the median estimate.

Meanwhile, rents are soaring.

Biden’s policies are sending me to the poorhouse with killer inflation.

What Was The White House Press Secretary Talking About? REAL Disposable Income Growth Is NEGATIVE And Diesel Prices Are Skyrocketing (Gasoline Prices Rising Too) Will The Fed Pivot Soon?

I feel sorry (sort of) for people like White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre who has to read ridiculous scripts in defense of awful Federal policies. For example, yesterday she touted Biden’s “accomplishments” of rising real disposable US income and declining gasoline prices. What? Doesn’t she read Confounded Interest?? /sarc

First, REAL disposable personal income growth for the US is NEGATIVE and has been since Biden and Congress embarked on their green energy crusade driving US inflation to its highest level in 40 years. Not exactly a great sales point for the midyear elections.

If we look at REAL average hourly earnings growth, a similar measure, we see that it is negative also. So, what on earth is Jean-Pierre talking about?

She also mentioned that gasoline prices are falling. Except that they are rising again. Apparently her talking points were from September.

Then we have diesel fuel prices, the backbone of the shipping industry, rising like crazy as Biden drains the strategic petroleum reserve.

Meanwhile, The Federal Reserve is tightening their uber-loose monetary policies (thanks Bernanke, Yellen and Powell). Will The Fed pivot to help with the midterm elections OR will The Fed keep trying to extinguish inflation by raising rates and withdrawing Fed monetary stimulus?

The we have Biden speaking (incoherently) with Jake Tapper about the possibility of recession.

The Inflation Hydra! Los Angeles Diesel Prices UP 176% Under Biden While Strategic Petroleum Reserve DOWN -34.7%

Inflation is a multi-headed hydra (from Greek Mythology). It is composed of 1) monetary stimulus (that The Fed is slowly withdrawing), 2) massive, reckless Federal spending and 3) Biden’s anti-fossil fuel mandates. So, when the inflation numbers are out later this week, it will be fun to dissect the damage being done to the US economy and middle-class/low-wage workers.

Take Los Angeles, for example. The life blood of the shipping industry, diesel fuel, is UP 176% under Biden, despite declining for a short period of time. And the DOE Strategic Petroleum Reserve is DOWN -34.7% under Biden.

Here is a photo of Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) trying to fight the inflation hydra. Unfortunately, one of the inflation hydra heads is The Federal Reserve itself.

Thanks to Gustavo Fuhr!

The Fed’s BIG Green Bag! MSCI Global Technology Index Has Worst Month since October 2008 As Fed Withdraws Stimulus (NASDAQ, PayPal, ARKK All Tumbling)

I feel like I am living in the horror movie “Saw”. The Federal Reserve is tightening their BIG green bag of money to fight inflation … caused by Biden’s energy policies and massive Federal government spending.

(Bloomberg) Stocks fell, pressured by rising Treasury yields and signs that company earnings were set to disappoint. A gauge of the dollar climbed to the highest this month.

European shares declined for a fifth straight session as bond yields jumped amid concerns of persistently high inflation as well as the impact of hawkish central bank policies on global growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.6%, with futures on the S&P 500 down by about the same magnitude, pointing to another risk-off day on Wall Street.

The mood is fragile ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data, with the case for another 75 basis-point rate hike likely to be strong if the reading comes in higher than than forecast. Fed officials until now show little sign they are in a mood to pause the rate-hiking cycle despite the potential hit to economic growth.

As The Fed tightens, the MSCI Global Technology index had the worst month since October 2008.

And the NASDAQ Composite index continues to fall with Fed removal of money. Hold on to your lugnuts! Because The Fed hasn’t stopped tightening.

Both ARKK and PayPal have gotten clipped by The Fed too.

The Perils Of Fed Tightening 3: US Taxpayers Getting Scaled By Fed Losses Thanks To Fed Tightening

The Federal Reserve, in their war on inflation (partly caused by excessive monetary stimulus since late 2008 under Nobel Laureate Ben “The Mad Money Printer” Bernanke) has led to large losses on their Treasury holdings as rates rise. The bill, of course, goes to Janet Yellen and The US Treasury. Ultimately, that burden is paid-for by US taxpayers.

Instead of “Blinded By The Light,” we are getting scalded by Biden’s policies and The Fed.

At least the top 1% made a fortune off of “Big Ben’s” printing press.

Now its time to pay the piper!

The Perils Of Fed Tightening 2: US Mortgage Rates Climb To Highest Since 2000, Mortgage Demand Falls To Lowest In Recorded History (Great Job DC!!)

Happy Columbus Day!

As I discussed yesterday in my post entitled “The Perils Of Fed Tightening In One Chart (Or Sweet Home DC!) Treasury Yield Curve Remains In Reversion And Stock Market Declining As Fed Reduces Money Supply Growth,” The Federal Reserve is tightening its monetary policies to combat 40-year highs in US inflation caused by 1) Biden’s anti-fossil fuels mandates, 2) excessive and reckless spending by Biden and Congress and 3) excessive monetary stimulus from The Federal Reserve.

Another casualty of The Fed’s tightening and reduction in M2 Money supply are … the mortgage and housing markets. The US mortgage rate has soared to 7.04% (highest since 2000) and mortgage DEMAND has fallen to the lowest level in recorded history.

Here is my chart from yesterday showing the inversion of the US Treasury 10yr-2yr curve and decline in the S&P 500 index as The Fed tightens.

And then we have this chart showing the most-extreme foreign Treasury outflow since March 2020.

At least The Fed is predicted to start cutting rates again in March 2020.

Yes, Biden and Powell have reenacted Kevin’s famous chili spill. And Ben Bernanke, the creator of QE from late 2008 was just award the Nobel Prize in economics for distorting financial markets.

The Perils Of Fed Tightening In One Chart (Or Sweet Home DC!) Treasury Yield Curve Remains In Reversion And Stock Market Declining As Fed Reduces Money Supply Growth

Sweet home DC! At least for the ruling elites. For the rest of us mortals, Bidenflation is crushing our finances.

To combat Bidenflation, The Fed has signaled that they will continue to raise interest rates. But at what cost?

(Bloomberg) — The world’s leading central banks are finally pushing their interest rates into restrictive territory, causing fears of overkill in financial markets and stoking chatter that policymakers may need to pivot at some point.

And with the withdrawal of monetary stimulus comes the slowdown of US M2 Money growth (green line). And with that slowdown, we see a declining stock market and an inverted US Treasury yield curve.

Of course, Biden could reverse his green energy agenda and allow for oil and natural gas exploration … again. Or begin building nuclear power plants again. But nooooo.

Another peril is rising mortgage rates.

Here is the S&P 500 against global liquidity.

Speaking of Freddie King, here is Joe Biden’s favorite song: hideaway.

US Mortgage Rates Rise To 7.04% As Housing Market Chills (WTI Crude And Gasoline Prices On The Rise Again As Biden Fails To Convince OPEC To Pump More Oil)

Under “Nuclear Joe” Biden, the US is truly the land of confusion.

As the Biden Administration touts “affordable housing,” we are seeing the 30-year mortgage rate rise above 7% as The Federal Reserve fights inflation … caused by the Biden Administration. Meanwhile, US home prices are falling.

The Biden Administration launched a war on domestic energy production, resulting in crude oil prices rising 74% under Biden and regular gasoline prices rising 62.4%.

As Biden pleaded with OPEC to increase oil production, he was embarrassingly rejected. Hence, West Texas Crude Oil prices have begun to rise again along with gasoline prices (pink box).

How about unemployment and the 10yr-2yr yield curve?

Everybody Panic! Bloomberg’s Market Pulse Gauge Signals PANIC As The Market Pulse Index Collapses To Great Recession Lows

Everbody panic!

Bloomberg’s market pulse gauge is signalling panic.

The Bloomberg market pulse index quantifies sentiment using 6 factors — price breadth, pairwise correlation, low vol performance, defensive vs. cyclical sector performance, high vs. low leverage performance and high yield spreads.

It’s currently as panicked as in 2008!