US Industrial Production Is Flat YoY In March

Watch KJP launch into song about March’s Industrial Production report. “The economy is going loop-de-loop.” In actuality, it rose by zero.

US Industrial Production rose 0.4% MoM in March – as expected – which was… wait for it… the same rise as in February after that data was revised notably higher. However, even with the revision and the subsequent rise, Industrial Production remains unchanged YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

We can’t help but see the irony that after we highlighted the serial downward revisions in data last month, that all of a sudden February’s Industrial Production data is revised drastically higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Capacity Utilization ticked modestly higher (from a downwardly revised 78.2% to 78.4% (below expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

US Manufacturing also saw February’s data revised higher (from +0.8% to +1.2% MoM) and March rose 0.5% MoM (better than the 0.2% rise expected). That lifted YoY Manufacturing up by 0.8%…

Source: Bloomberg

Soft and Hard manufacturing data in agreement that things are turning up…

Nothing but blue skies here for The Fed to cut rates into… not!

US 30Y Mortgage Rate At 7.30%, Up 160% Under “Working Class Joe”, US Treasury 10Y Rate Climbs To 4.632% (Homeownership Rate Falls To 65.7%)

Joe Biden likes to sell himself as “working class Joe” or “union Joe.” The truth is anything but. He is “Washington DC insider Joe” or “big corporate Joe.”

The US mortgage 30 year rate is down slightly today to 7.30%. That is a whopping 160% increase since Biden’s Presidency began.

Mortgage rates will continue to climb as the US Treasury 10-year yield climbs.

The US homeownership rate is falling as mortgage rates climb.

Debtflation Nation! Fed Gov’t Spending $2 Billion PER DAY, Debt To GDP Headed To 200%, Electricity Costs SOARING

Biden and Congress have never met a project that they weren’t willing to fund (except a border wall with Mexico, of course).

Inflation is heating up again as the Federal government continues to spend.

4-5% by November…

US CPI on trend for 4-5% at US election in November.

Source: BofA

Above 5%…?

Strong CPI raises market probability of YE25 rates above 5%.

Source: Goldman

Cyclical inflation remains too elevated

“Our measure of cyclical inflation–which should capture the impact of excess demand on prices–appears to be stuck at around 5%, which is too elevated”

Source: Safra

US alone

The US is the only economy in the G10 where the latest inflation print surprised to the upside.

Source: Goldman

200% of GDP

Under current policies, government debt outstanding will grow from 100% to 200% of GDP.

Source: Apollo

Close to $9 trillion in maturities

That’s a significant amount of government debt maturing within the next year.

Source: Apollo

Every year a deficit

OMB forecasts 5% budget deficit every year for the next 10 years.

Source: Apollo

A billion per day….is long gone

US government interest payments per day have doubled from $1bn per day before the pandemic to almost $2bn per day in 2023.

Source: Apollo

Biggest Story of 2020s…Ugly End of 40-year Bond Bull

Chart shows long-term US government bond (15+ year) rolling 10-year annualized returns, %.

Source: Flow Show

Highest yields in 15 years

The intermediate part of the yield curve still offers the highest yields in over fifteen years.

Source: Piper Sandler

Finally, electricity costs keeps rising, ESPECIALLY with the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The real name of the IRA should have been the Large Green Donor Increase Act (LGDIA).

The Alligator People! The Fed Is Reporting Billions in Losses Weekly And Still Paying High Interest Income To The Mega Banks on Wall Street (As Biden Recklessly Transfers Student Loans To Taxpayers)

Joe Biden, his Administration, and The Federal Reserve are really “The Alligator People.” Despite what they tell you, they have small brains (particularly Biden) and are hyperfocused on spending.

A good example comes from “Wall Street On Parade” where they show that The Federal Reserve is still paying BILLIONS to US Treasury in the form of remittances (losses). While at the same time, paying the mega banks on Wall Street high interest loans.

As of April 3 of this year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has racked up $161 billion in accumulated losses. We’re not talking about unrealized losses on the underwater debt securities the Fed holds on its balance sheet, which it does not mark to market. We’re talking about real cash losses it is experiencing from earning approximately 2 percent interest on the $6.97 trillion of debt securities it holds on its balance sheet from its Quantitative Easing (QE) operations while it continues to pay out 5.4 percent interest to the mega banks on Wall Street (and other Fed member banks) for the reserves they hold with the Fed; 5.3 percent interest it pays on reverse repo operations with the Fed; and a whopping 6 percent dividend to member shareholder banks with assets of $10 billion or less and the lesser of 6 percent or the yield on the 10-year Treasury note at the most recent auction prior to the dividend payment to banks with assets larger than $10 billion. (This morning the 10-year Treasury is yielding 4.41 percent.)

Operating losses of this magnitude are unprecedented at the of Fed, which was created in 1913. In a press release dated March 26, the Fed stated this: “The Reserve Banks’ 2023 sum total of expenses exceeded earnings by $114.3 billion.”

As of March 13 of this year, the Fed’s accumulated losses stood at $156.24 billion and yet on March 20 the Federal Reserve voted to sustain those high 5+ percent interest rates to its member banks – making it look like the captured regulator it is considered to be by millions of Americans.

As the chart above indicates, the Fed’s ongoing weekly losses have ranged from a high of $3.3 billion for the week ending Wednesday, January 31, 2024, to $1.86 billion for the most recent week ending Wednesday, April 3, 2024.

American taxpayers have good reason to sit up and pay attention to the Fed’s giant and ongoing losses. That’s because when the Fed is operating in the green, as it was on an annual basis for 106 years from 1916 through 2022, the Fed, by law, turns over excess earnings to the U.S. Treasury – thus reducing the amount the U.S. government has to borrow by issuing Treasury debt securities. According to Fed data, between 2011 and 2021, the Fed’s excess earnings paid to the U.S. Treasury totaled more than $920 billion.

The loss of remittances from the Fed means the U.S. government will go deeper into debt, putting a heavier tax burden on the U.S. taxpayer and raising the risk of another credit rating agency downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt.

Of course, The Allgator People like Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will Treasury remittances as “free money” to spend. And its an election year, so Joe Biden (aka, King Gator) is canceling $7.4 billion in student debt for 277,000 borrowers. Only alligators in Washington DC considered this action to have no consequences.

WHO pays for the student loan forgiveness? It just doesn’t vanish, it is transferred to taxpayers. Alligators like Alexandria Ocasio Cortez going on talk shows to argue the benefits of being free from financial obligations that student voluntarily agreed to. Say, can AOC get my mortgage forgiven?? Just kidding. Now those same students can borrow additional money to get MBA degrees with the expectation that the student loan is “free money.”

Yes, Biden is acting recklessly (no surprise). Here is a picture of King Gator, Joe Biden.

The Biden Administration and The Federal Reserve ARE the alligator people. Except these gators are hungry for your money and votes constantly.

Hi Ho Silver (And Gold)! Gold Futures Surge To Above $2,400, Up 19.61% Since Last Year (Bitcoin UP 133.44% Since Last Year) FEAR!

Hi Ho Silver (and Gold)!

Gold futures prices are soaring and are at $2,422.00. Gold futures prices are up 19.61% over the past year.

Silver futures prices are also soaring and are at $29.64. Silver futures prices are up 16.40% over the past year.

Bitcoin is almost at $70,000 and is up 133.44% over the past year.

Returning to gold, we are seeing another gold breakout, like the breakout in 2008.

Even central banks are loading up on gold, silver, and cryptos. Why? Primarily fear of US reckless budgets and exploding debts/deficits (don’t listen to Biden talk about how “he” reduced deficits and debt (both have risen to dangerous levels under he inattentive eyes).

However, calming the jangled nerves of pension funds is that the S&P 500 stock market index is up 26.04% over the past year.

Overall prices are up by 19.4% since Biden took office.

Of course, the S&P 500 is not sustainable given that it has been driven by excessive spending by the Biden Adminstration coupled with still massive monetary stimulus from The Federal Reserve.

In summary, gold, silver and cryptos are rising on FEAR! Of Biden, Congress and The Fed.

Fear The Talking Fed! How The Fed And Federal Government Destroyed The US Dollar (Purchasing Power DOWN -32% Since The Subprime Crisis While M2 Money Has Grown By 177%)

We are living in the USA where corruption, favoritism, open borders and an out-of-control Federal budget and debt are destroying this once great nation.

Former Kansas City Fed President Thomas M. Hoenig was absolutely right when he said recently that The Federal Reserve panders to Wall Street, Congress and special interest groups, prioritizing immediate relief over financial stability. Bernanke’s zero-interest rate policies (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) were short-term fixes that never went away. Indeed, since the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008-2009, US Dollar purchasing power is DOWN -32% and M2 Money is up a staggering 177%. While Yellen stuck with zero-interest policies until Trump was elected, then raised The Fed Funds Target Rate 8 times. Yellen only raised the target rate once under Obama. Clearly playing political favoritism.

The Federal Reserve’s lack of transparency comes amidst reports that countries are removing their gold and other assets from the U.S. in the wake of the unprecedented Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. According to a 2023 Invesco surveya “substantial percentage” of central banks expressed concern about how the U.S. and its allies froze nearly half of Russia’s $650 billion gold and forex reserves. Headline USA filed a FOIA request with the Fed for records reflecting how much gold the Federal Reserve Bank of New York currently holds in its vault, as well as records reflecting the ownership stake that each of FRBNY’s central bank/government clients have in that gold. The FOIA request also sought records about the Fed’s gold holdings prior to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, the Federal Reserve denied the FOIA request on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions.

It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money.

When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to listen.

But the average person has a poor understanding of how this colossally important entity operates. Or even why it exists.

And after a series of asset price bubbles — which some argue we’re in another one now — a chorus skeptical of the Fed’s actions has emerged.

So today we’re doing our best to shine as bright a light as possible on the Fed: how & why it operates, the good & as well as the shortcomings of its actions to date, what direction its policies are likely to take from here, and how all of this impacts the households of regular people like you and me.

Here are my top takeaways from from a speech by former KC Fed President Thomas Hoenig:

  • Dr Hoenig admits the Federal Reserve has experienced substantial “mission creep” since its creation as a lender of last resort. Its track record is very much “mixed” in terms of delivering on the intent of its policies. In Dr. Hoenig’s opinion, its efforts to add stability sometimes instead only create more instability.
  • While very critical of the Fed’s QE and ZIRP policies in the wake of the GFC, and more recently in the $trillions in monetary & fiscal stimulus unleashed post-COVID, Dr Hoenig thinks current Fed policy is “about right”. Though he expects the Fed to come under serious pressure soon as ebbing liquidity allows recessionary forces to build. He thinks the Fed will need to make an important decision within the coming year: return to QE and re-flame inflation, or allow a recession to occur.
  • Dr Hoenig criticizes the Federal Reserve for pandering to various interests, noting that short-term thinking and pressures from Wall Street, Congress, and interest groups often lead to decisions that prioritize immediate relief over long-term stability — a sort of “We’ll act now for optics sake and hopefully figure things out later”
  • In Dr Hoenig’s opinion, our fiscal policy is a runaway disaster. He criticizes both political parties of Congress for their roles in the cycle of ever-increasing deficits. Democrats advocate increased spending and tax hikes, while Republicans aim to keep taxes low but fail to curb spending. He warns of dire long-term consequences for future generations due to this impasse.
  • Dr Hoenig is very worried about the current stability of the banking system (and this from a former Direct of the FDIC!). He advocates for essential reforms to address government spending, prioritize essential areas without relying on future borrowed funds or inflationary measures, and communicate transparently with the public. He stresses the importance of reducing debt growth substantially below national income growth to avoid a full-blown crisis scenario in the future.
  • Dr Hoenig predicts the purchasing power of the US dollar (and other world fiat currencies) will continue to decline due to current policies and the lack of a “discipline” to money creation. Until such a discipline is restored (perhaps a return to some sort of hard backing of the currency), the dollar’s fall in purchasing power won’t abate.
  • Dr Hoenig suggests investing time in reading history and biographies as a valuable way to learn about leadership and gain insights into what strategies works and which don’t.

Here is the “Sound Money Parade” in 1896. By the aftermath of the subprime crisis, Janet Yellen (1993-2020) adopted the UNSOUND Money Fest, an orgy of printing and charging near zero interest rates. Powell in 2021 is ever-so-slowly unwinding The Fed’s balance sheet, but Powell has raised The Target Rate to its highest level since 1998 to fight inflation caused by Biden’s policies.

Combine The Fed not telling us how much gold they hold and their overprinting problems since 2008, and you can see why investors are turning to gold and silver and crypto currencies. The adoption of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is a step towards financial collapse.

Here is a parade you will NEVER see in Washington DC. A Sound Money Parade!

Powell is beginning to act like a sound money fan, but he still is taking his sweet time shriking the balance sheet.

I am thinking of fleeing to Lilliehammer Normay like Frank Tagliano.

About That Fantastic Jobs Report … Full-time, Native Jobs Shrink, Part-time, Foreign-born Jobs Rise On Year-over-Year Basis, Virtually No Manufacturing Jobs Added But 71k Government Jobs Added (Black Unemployment Increases)

To quote the song “Sloop John B”, “Let me go home, I wanna go home. This is the worst trip I’ve ever been on.” The lyrics should change to “This is the worst ADMINISTRATION I’ve ever experienced.”

Like last month, today’s jobs report for March is better than Februrary’s miracle report, but has some glaring bad news that the Administration and slobbering media will ignore. Now you know why I no longer appear on CNBC, CNN or Fox Business anymore.

Let’s start with the good news! The BLS reported that in March, the US added a whopping 303K jobs, tied for the highest since Jan 2023!

Turning our attention to the unemployment rate, it unexpectedly dipped again, dropping to 3.8%, from 3.9%, in line with estimates, as the number of unemployed workers dipped modestly from 6.458 million to 6.429 million while the number of employed workers rose by almost half a million workers; the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March to the highest level in almost two years, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

In contrast, the participation rate rose from 62.5% to 62.7%, above the 62.6% expected, as the overall civilian labor force increased slightly less than the number of employed people.

Now for the not-so-good news. The average hourly earnings came in as expected, rising 0.3% MoM, up from last month’s upward revised 0.2% sequential increase (revised from 0.1%), On an annual basis, the hourly earnings rose 4.1%, as expected, and down from 4.3%. This was the lowest print in almost three years: the last time wages rose by this much was the summer of 2021.

Now for the bad news.

For those wondering if the jobs were all part-time, the answer is a resounding yes: in March, full-time jobs dropped by 6,000 as Part-time jobs soared by 691,000.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, full-time jobs were down -1.0% while part-time jobs were up 7.1%

Native-born versus foreign born? On a YoY basis, native-born employment was down -0.5% while foreign-born employment increased by 4.2%.

Not only is Biden importing Democrat voters (since 70% of Americans HATE Biden’s policies), they are also displacing native-born Americans in the labor force.

Manufacturing jobs added were ZERO. So, much for all of Biden’s claims. But NON-PRODUCTIVE government jobs were up 71,000. So our manufacturing jobs are dead while non-productive government jobs are growing like crazy.

Under Biden, the Administrative state is growing faster than manufacturing since Feb 2023. The Biden Administration implements new rules to prevent Trump’s ability to purge deep state employees if re-elected in 2024.

How will The Fed respond? Likely will lead to limited rate cuts.

On related news, horse-faced John Kerry’s daughter says BILLIONS of Humans Must Die for the ‘New World Order’. This reminds me of China and Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” and the starvation of 45 million people.

Another Lousy Job Market Indicator: WARNs Are Soaring… And Challenger-Grey Announced That March Saw Most Job Cuts Since January 2023

Bidenomics was born under a bad sign. Or born under large corporate donor payoffs.

In the real world labor market, 2024 has been a deluge of layoffs of the US economy…

1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
4. Twig: 100% of workforce
5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
9. Away: 25% of workforce
10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
13. Finder: 17% of workforce
14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
23. Snap: 10% of workforce
24. eBay: 9% of workforce
25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
30. Okta: 7% of workforce
31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
34. EA: 5% of workforce
35. Motional: 5% of workforce
36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
39. UPS: 2% of workforce
40. Nike: 2% of workforce
41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
50. Perrigo: 500 employees

But, according to the government-supplied data…

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week rose from 212k to 221k (SA) to its highest since Jan, and claims ticked modestly higher on an NSA basis

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims remain glued around 1.8mm Americans – where they have been for nine months…

Source: Bloomberg

But, here’s the thing… WARNs are soaring… and Challenger-Grey just announced that March saw the most job cuts (90,309) since January 2023…but government-supplied data on initial jobless claims continues to smoothly tick along near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The WARN data is very disturbing.

Ah, Bidenomics!!

If Trump wins in November, will all this data suddenly be ‘allowed’ to reflect reality?

But the feral pigs are already here in Washington DC as elected representative and non-elected bureaucrats.

Might explain the rush to gold.

Pushin’ Too Hard? Strategic Petroleum Reserve Draining To Combat Biden’s Energy Policies (Crude Oil UP 73% Under Biden, Food UP 21%, Rent UP 19.4%, Cocoa UP 136%, Mortgage Rates UP 156%)

Bidenomics is really about insane money printing after Covid and the installation of Biden as President. Biden and The Federal Reserve are both pushin’ too hard. Biden to fundamentally change the US and The Fed trying to cope with the inflation reaction. With Covid and then Biden’s selection as President, Federal outlays exploded (blue line) and remain elevated under Biden. To help finance the (outrageous) spending The Federal Reserve massively increased the M2 Money supply (green line). Now, The Fed has withdrawn some of the excessive monetary stimulus, but there is a staggering amount monetary stimulus still swimming around the economy like a Great White Shark.

The problem with Federal policies (energy, government spending, government debt) is that there are unpredictable factors that undo the best laid plans of mice and men. And rats such as crop blights and changes in consumer habits.

A good example is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which can be drained if craven politicians want to manage oil and gasoline prices for political purposes. Unfortunately, the promise of replenishment is made difficult by rising crude oil prices. The Biden admin cancels plan to refill emergency oil reserve amid high prices (some caused by factors such as war, often caused by government).

In fact, spot crude is up 73% under Biden. Partly, because of Biden’s promised war on fossil fuels and international disasters like war, blights, etc. This is why I cringe when I hear politicians and “economists” discuss why inflation will fall.

On the food side, we have cocoa prices rising 136% under Biden. Again, not predictable when policies were being made. Combine crop blights were rising transportation costs and DC, we have a problem! But this is one reason why The Fed, etc, focus on core inflation (excluding energy and food prices).

There are many examples of rising prices and how they hurt consumers, particularly middle-class and low wage workers.

How did The Federal Reserve react to the inflation Biden helped create? They raised The Fed Funds Target Rate (Upper Bound) by 2,100% to combat Bidenflation. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate is up 156% helping to crush homeownership aspiration for younger households.

And then we have Congress/Biden shoveling more than $10 billion in subsidies to Intel, even though Intel has an incentive to develop chips using borrowed funds and Intel retained earnings. But why put your shareholders at risk in case the chip gamble doesn’t payoff. Just shift the risk to US taxpayers!

Highway To Hell Part Deux: Office Tower Vacancy Rate Hits Record High As Zombie Buildings Litter Skylines of Cities (Office Mortgages Living On Borrowed Time)

Bidenomics is also a Highway To Hell for commercial real estate. Let’s say real estate is thunderstruck under Bidenomics.

There are more dormant office towers in the United States than at any point since 1979, according to a new report from Moody’s Analytics, which began tracking office leasing vacancies that year. 

The rising supply of office space is due to a combination of surging remote and hybrid work that forces companies to reduce corporate footprints. Also, companies are exiting imploding progressive cities and high-taxed blue states for red ones while downsizing space. In the report, office tower vacancies rose to a record 19.8%, up from 19.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023. 

Even with the increase, there is an eerily calm across the commercial real estate sector. This comes as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle is higher for longer, indicating that the pain train is nearing (perhaps after the presidential election). 

“The office stress isn’t quite done yet,” Thomas LaSalvia, Moody’s head of commercial real estate economics and one of the authors of the report, told Bloomberg in an interview. He noted recent positive economic indicators stave off a “perfect storm in the office sector.” 

“There are spots of light and there are spots of extreme darkness,” LaSalvia said, adding, “This is part of a longer-term evolution where we are seeing obsolete buildings in obsolete neighborhoods.”

The high office vacancy rate continues to be terrible news for landlords and developers eager to fill their buildings, and the Fed’s hiking cycle has made refinancing very challenging. 

Last month, Goldman’s Vinay Viswanathan penned a note explaining how “office mortgages are living on borrowed time.” 

Viswanathan said there have been no major fireworks in CRE tower debt because the debt is being “extended and modified rather than refinanced,” which “mitigates a default wave and a sharp pick-up in losses on CRE loan portfolios.”

Yes, both residential and commercial real estate are thunderstruck under Bidenomics.