We have a double whammy facing investors, The Federal Reserve wanting to take away the monetary punch bowl and Federal energy policies that are crushing middle-class households and lower-wages workers.
But how do you hedge against The Federal Reserve tightening and Biden’s reckless energy policies?
Take a look at investing in commodities (S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust and the Bloomberg Commodity Index) versus the S&P 500 Total Return index since The Fed began signaling that they would take away the monetary punch bowl.
Yes, commodities like food and gasoline/diesel prices are up dramatically under Biden’s energy policies (not to mention the USA’s proxy war with Russia).
The Fed seems determined to remove the Fed “Snake juice” from the economy.
The US economy us approaching recession as inflation soars and expected growth declines.
Food and energy prices are soaring, hitting middle class and low-wage households like a hammer. While the headline inflation rate is 8.3% YoY, food is up 63% under Biden and gasoline is up 92%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield is down today, which bodes well for 30-year mortgage rates.
The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all down over -1% today.
Foodstuff are up 61.5% under Biden’s Reign of Error. Gasoline prices are up 85.8%, diesel prices are up 111%. Yet the government inflation index (aka, CPI) is up only 8.3% in April.
But while energy and food prices are soaring, the CRB Spot Metals Index has plummeted -15% since May 4 as Covid is ravaging the Chinese economy. Recession alter anyone?
And then we have soaring home prices and rents. But notice that Zillow’s Rent index is slowing down as mortgage rates soar.
We have a stalling Chinese market, down 28% since October. Is Biden President of China??
On the currency front, the Russian Ruble is soaring relative to the US Dollar while the Chinese Renminbi, the Japanese Yen and the Euro (or in this case, the Gyro) are sinking like a rock.
If I compare the Russian Ruble and Ukrainian Hryvnia, you can see Ukraine is losing the currency war with Russia.
Inflation Inferno thanks to Biden’s misguided energy executive orders and cancellation of Alaskan and Gulf of Mexico drilling leases.
Biden’s economic mismanagement team: American Gothics Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jay Powell.
The US Senate yesterday confirmed the reappointment of Jerome “Slowhand” Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.
The good news? Atlanta Fed’s Flexible CPI YoY cooled to 20% in April. The bad news? Flexible prices are still growing at 20% while wages are growing at 5.5% YoY.
On the export front, export prices are cooling and were at 18% YoY in April, down slightly from March. Import prices cooled to 12% YoY as The Federal Reserve has slowed asset purchases.
I would have preferred President Biden appoint a serious Federal Reserve Chairman liked Stanford University’s John Taylor (of Taylor Rule fame). In his honor, here is the Mankin version of the Taylor Rule which calls for a Fed Funds Target Rate of 13.89% while the current Fed Funds Target Rate under Powell and the Gang is … 1%.
Call this “Nobody’s Everything.” Crytpocurrencies are getting clobbered. But then again, the S&P 500 is not doing so well. But crypto stalwarts Bitcoin and Ethereum have down even worse.
At the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin has gotten pummeled.
But at least Bitcoin rose this morning along with Bitcoin Cash. And XRP. But the others are getting clobbered.
The Biden Administration and The Federal Reserve together should be called “The Cooler Kings” in that their policies are putting a Big Chill on the mortgage market and equities.
Mortgage rates are skyrocketing thanks to the Federal Reserve.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.27% for the week ending May 5, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC, -1.62% on Thursday. That’s up 17 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point, or 1% of 1%.
House price growth to wage growth is below the all-time high, but remains above housing bubble levels of 2005-2007.
The Refinitiv Venture Capital Index is down 53% since November ’21 as The Fed cranks up interest rates.
Well, at least commodities are soaring under “The Cooler Kings.” Pretty much everything else is sucking wind.
The question, of course, is whether The Federal Reserve will back off its plans to aggressively raise interest rates in lieu of crashing stock market, venture capital, and possibly home prices.
Well, the Fed’s talking heads have been saying a 50 basis point hike was coming in May … and it appeared!
And it looks like 9 rate hikes are a comin’ by February 2023.
The Fed’s Dot Plots shows a cooling of Fed rate hikes by 2024 and beyond.
Here is the path of Balance Sheet peel-off.
The US Treasury actives curve is up by 14 bps at the 10-year tenor and up 17 bps at the 2-year tenor.
The plan will see $30 billion of Treasuries and $17.5 billion on mortgage-backed securities roll off. After three months, the cap for Treasuries will increase to $60 billion and $35 billion for mortgages.
I could read the Fed’s speech on their decision, but since The Fed has been so highly politicized, I don’t really care what they say. Only what they do.
President Biden (or whoever is pulling his strings) is inflicting a “Medusa Touch” on the US. That is, everything his administration touches turns to stone.
Let’s look at average hourly earnings. Thanks to “progressive” energy policies from Biden, REAL average hourly earnings growth has crashed and burned.
But here is the chart that the Biden Administration touts showing average hourly earnings growth at 5.6% YoY (although I doubt if Jen Psaki would leave out the massive distortion caused by The Federal Reserve’s “Let’s go crazy!” monetary policy.
Another Medusa Touch moment is the reverse repo market. When I wrote about reverse repos before, several people wrote me saying “You don’t understand. This is a temporary problem and will vanish shortly.” However, The Fed’s reverse repo facility has now climbed to an all-time high.
Then we have the disruptive effects of The Federal Reserve deciding for us that mortgage rates are too low and should be higher.
Now look at lithium prices, a key element for electric car batteries. Making the switch from Internal combustion engines to electric motors far more costly.
The list goes on and on.
Suffice it to say, everything the Biden Administration touches turns to stone.
But I wager that the Biden Administration wishes that Hunter Biden’s laptop would turn to stone.
Only an elitist DC bureaucrat like Joe Biden would laugh at inflation that is ruining the lives of millions of Americans.
We all know (except for Biden apparently) that inflation is up 8.5% YoY as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the CPI change doesn’t fully capture what is crushing Americans’ pocketbooks. Here is a brief update on where we stand prior to the upcoming Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on May 4th.
Since Biden was installed as President on January 20, 2021, prices for key commodities have soared. Natural gas futures UP 192%, Regular Gasoline prices UP 73.6%, Commodity Research Bureau Foodstuffs UP 59%, Low sulfur Diesel futures UP 176%.
Since we now have the Biden’s Orwellian Ministry of Truth (actually The Department of Homeland Security’s “Disinformation Board”) which will start censoring free speech. And this post is what could fall under their reign of terror. Or in Biden’s case, reign of error.
Jen Psaki, the President’s talking head, has said that it is Russia and Putin’s fault. So, here are the same prices up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since Biden was installed as President: Natural gas futures UP 82.3%, Regular Gasoline prices UP 80.2%, Commodity Research Bureau Foodstuffs UP 50.1% ,Low sulfur Diesel futures UP 47.7%.
Yikes! So, even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the lethal combination of Biden’s green energy executive orders and The Fed’s continuing monetary stimulypto was deadly for American households.
On a sad note, The Biden Administration is considering cancelling student loan debt as a way to control inflation (?). Of course, cancelling student debt will lead to a surge in consumer spending and even MORE soaring inflation. Biden is suffering from The Medusa Touch. Everything he touches turns to stone.
While The Fed is expected to remove monetary stimulus, don’t expect inflation to return to pre-Biden levels. The anti-fossil fuels edicts from Biden are still in effect. Even if the bottlenecks clear up, Biden and Congress may unleash more Federal spending (although much of Federal spending benefits “Friends and Family” of Biden and Congress, not the American middle class or lower-wage workers).
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he saw merit in the argument for front-loading interest-rate increases, including a half percentage-point hike next month.“
I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting,” Powell told an IMF-hosted panel on Thursday in Washington that he shared with European Central Bank
President Christine Lagarde and other officials. “We really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back,” he said, referring to the Fed’s target for annual price increases.
Central bankers are grappling with some of the highest inflation rates since the 1980s that are being further pressured as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosts food and energy prices and China’s coronavirus lockdowns tangles supply chains anew.
Equity markets in the USA and Europe are getting “Powell’d” and “Lagarde’d” today. As of noon today, the Dow is down 628 points (or -1.81%). Euro Stoxx 50 is down -2.24%.
I remember appearing on Fox Business’ Stuart Varney and Company where he asked me what will happen when The Fed starts to raise rates in a serious fashion. I made a ka-boom gesture at which he laughed. Stuart, I wasn’t joking!
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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