Talk about an economy that seems dependent on Federal government money printing. The US economy seems hopelessly addicted to gov money printing.
Today, US job openings fell in February to 9,931k. While that is still a large number, look at the chart of job openings and M2 Money printing. There is a one year lag between maximum printing and job openings. But M2 Money growth has collapsed.
Silicon Valley Bank’s blunders were encouraged by US regulation, went untested by the Federal Reserve and were “hiding in plain sight” until Wall Street and depositors grew alarmed.
That’s JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon’s assessment of the US banking crisis that sent markets careening last month, an episode he predicts is “not yet over” and will be felt for years. He said US authorities shouldn’t “overreact” with more rules.
In his wide-ranging annual letter to shareholders on Tuesday, Dimon described his firm’s aspirations for using artificial intelligence and ChatGPT, weighed in on geopolitics, and provided updates on JPMorgan’s activities in Ohio. This time, many of his sharpest remarks ripped at regulation, including capital rules that pushed banks to binge on low-interest assets that lost value as interest rates shot up.
“Ironically, banks were incented to own very safe government securities because they were considered highly liquid by regulators and carried very low capital requirements,” Dimon said. “Even worse,” he added, the Federal Reserve didn’t stress-test banks on what would happen as rates jumped.
When Silicon Valley Bank’s uninsured depositors realized it was losing money selling securities to keep up with withdrawal requests, they raced to pull their cash. Regulators then intervened and seized it.
Yes. Banking regulators were so focused on credit-exposure of banks (remember the subprime crisis of 2008?) that they really screwed up by having banks load-up on low credit-risk assets that usually have interest rate risk associated with them like Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). What could go wrong?
What went wrong was that interest rates rose and unrealized losses on Treasuries and Agency MBS exploded.
Here is a chart of urealized losses on investment securities that banks have accumulated.
Apparently, The Fed and FDIC (and the myriad of Federal and State regulators) sit high on a mountain top and ignore interest rate risk.
Not only did the ISM Manfacturimng Report on New Business Order fall to 44.3, but price PAID also fell as The Fed hikes rates (yellow line) and slowing M2 Money growth (green line).
Office REITs are really hurting as Count Powellula sucks the blood (liquidity) from the market.
Count Powellula. “I vant to suck the blood from your economy.”
While Resident Biden is on good terms with the Mexican drug and sex trafficing cartels that control our southern border, the oil cartel just stuck their fingers in Biden’s eyes by cutting oil productions. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia was irritated last week that the Biden administration publicly ruled out new crude purchases to replenish SPR
Cartel removes more than 1 million barrels a day from market
Analysts say the decline in oil inventories will accelerate
Today, crude oil futures are up 6.62% to over $80 per barrel.
Sunday’s surprise OPEC+ production cuts have redefined the outlook for crude prices, bringing $100 a barrel back into the frame.
Prior to the announcement, the cartel’s own numbers suggested the group would need to pump more oil, not less, in the second half. With the International Energy Agency expecting a demand surge later this year, there’s now renewed risk of a fresh inflationary impetus for the global economy.
Under Biden’s Reign of Error, diesel prices are up 64% while the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) have been drained by -42%.
St. Benedict, help protect us from Biden and The Federal Reserve.
Inflation is slowing just a little. But my feeling about The Fed (that partly caused the problem in the first place by keeping rates too low for too long (TLTL) under Yellen is all I can do is laugh.
The US Core Deflator (Personal Consumption Expenditure CORE PRICE Index YoY fell only slightly in February to a still-high 4.6% in February despite The Fed jacking up interest rates and slowing M2 Money growth.
I thought Biden and Congress passed the inflation reduction act??
The Covid outbreak in early 2020 (from which I came close to dying) resulted in legendary Fed stimulus and Federal government spending. But as The Fed attempts to cool inflation by slowing M2 Money printing and raising The Fed’s target rate, we are seeing the lowest personal consumption expenditures print under Biden’s reign of error, a measly 1%.
On top of the dismal revision to the Q4, we are seeing WARN notices increasing, particularly for large states. Worker Adjustment and Retraining (WARN) Notices are picking up which points to unemployment claims soon rising and a deterioration in the jobs market, posing a risk to stocks.
Biden’s reign of error continues with horrible policies. With the help of Congress.
Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three U.S. regions posted monthly gains, while the West declined. All four regions saw year-over-year decreases in transactions.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 0.8% to 83.2 in February. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 21.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
More notably, the YoY growth rate has been NEGATIVE for 20 of the last 21 months. And 15 straight months.
Biden’s energy policies + insane Federal spending = inflation = Fed slowing M2 Money growth. Hence, pending home sales YoY is down -21.1%.
Well, the regional banking crisis has one positive outcome: mortgage rates dropped -46 basis points since last week. The result? Mortgage demand increased 2.9 percent week-over-week (WoW). Although I don’t recommend banking incompetence by bank management and “regulators” as a strategy to increase mortgage demand.
Mortgage applications increased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 24, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 61 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 35 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The rest of the story.
We need a doctor to fix this mess, just not Dr. Yellen or Dr. Jill.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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