Baby, It’s Cold Outside! Electricity Prices UP 24.25% Under Bidenomics (NASDAQ To Commodity Ratio Near Dot.com Bubble High)

Baby, it’s cold outside! Of course, government still wants to ban natural gas and coal.

The average price of electricity has risen a whopping 24.25% under Biden and Bidenomics. Brrr!!

No wonder Biden only wants to talk about unlimited abortion and NOT the immigration (Fentanyl, child trafficing, crime, etc) fiasco at the border and continually rising prices. Or Biden’s growing wars.

The NASDAQ commodity index RATIO is getting back to dot.com era bubble levels.

Biden’s Green Boondoggle! Mortgage Purchase Demand 18% Lower Than Last Year, Refi Demand Down 8% From Last Year

Biden’s green energy mandates, a boondoggle for China and lodestone for Americans, is leaking over to the mortgage market. That’s Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 19, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the MLK holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. 

Will “Animal Spirits” Force “Dovish Trifecta” Off-Course? (Will The Fed Misread Soaring Stock Market And Make Yet ANOTHER Policy Error??)

It smells like … ANIMAL spirits.

The last week or so has seen a tactical ‘hawkish’ reversion in USTs and STIRs to play for a re-pricing lower in March rate-cut expectations, following the recent ‘hard-data resiliency’ with Consumer and Labor, alongside modestly “hawkish” rhetoric (despite soft data weakness)…

And, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott highlights this morning, we are also seeing new upside being bot in SOFR Options for “dovish outcome”-hedging again, with Core PCE looming later this week.The market has had bunches of March SOFR Downside structures trading over the past few weeks to play for “Fed cut overshoot,” which has been the right trade YTD, as the implied probability distribution shows March Fed cuts now having been slashed by over half the the past week and a half (~80% priced to now just ~40%), and accordingly now we’ve witnessed some monetization of tactical Downside in recent days…

And we see the swaption surface getting mushed…

As he notes, the “dovish-trifecta” right-tail repricing has gotten us to ~4900… and, he says, the actual “realization” could then certainly push us through 5000:It’s my expectations that we could very well see:1) “March Fed cut” to pick-up Delta again after what is expected to be a “light” core PCE print this Friday…and taking back pricing following the past week’s Fed speak pushback and “too resilient” Labor- and Consumer- data, which has driven March Fed meeting “cut” probabilities being sliced in half over the past one week (~80% on 1/12/24 to today’s ~40%)The next potential dovish catalyst is 2) the QRA est / announcement end of Jan / start Feb, with “binary risk” implications on the direction of Duration and Risk-Assets, as the market generally anticipates resumption of larger Coupon issuance from the US Treasury ahead—but what if there is one final announcement where Bills stay high, Coupon increases but isn’t as large as most anticipate, AND Yellen signals that this is the final expected Coupon increase?!

While we’re at it and relate to the Treasury’s QRA discussion, let’s not forget the “other” market- and economic- backstop being applied by the Biden Administration (and aided by what looks to be Janet Yellen’s “politically activist” US Treasury with TBAC sign-off) – which is the continued willingness to run large fiscal deficits in an attempt to “run the economy hot” in this election year, with much of it being “paid for” via Bills (so to prevent long-end Rates from pushing higher, which would tighten US financial conditions)……this is Green build, CHIPS Act, and even fresh “election surprises” like Biden announcement Friday on “forgiveness” of a fresh $5B of student loans, now making the total loan forgiveness approved by the Biden admin $136.6B

And finally as a derivative of the above mention, another hypothetical Treasury QRA where we’d see “Bill issuance remaining high, yet with Coupon increases not as large as most anticipate” would then mechnically see MMF’s continuing pulling from RRP to buy Bills, which will further accelerate the RRP drain…and as outlined in recent weeks, “low” RRP levels will act as “a” key input to Fed reaction function on determining LCLoR……which will ultimately mean 3) a pulling-forward on the market’s expected timing on the “end of QT”

This “dovish-trifecta” is the macro catalyst behind the “right-tail” scenario which has appropriately been repriced higher by the market over the course of the past month, and we’ve seen clients allocate some protection spend to this “crash-UP” scenarioAnd again, IF the above were to realize… without negative catalysts (Earnings fine, no further Rates selloff / Fed repricing, continued disinflationary trajectory rebuilds “Fed cut” implied probability) around that upcoming Feb VIXpery with all that Dealer “short VIX Calls” positioning being hedged… there is absolutely potential for an Equities slingshot if there are no issues and those customer “Long VIX Calls” bleed-out, which will mean Dealers puke out their UX1 Longs (as hedges) back into the market for a potential “kicker” to goose Spot Equities even higher…For now, no-one is worried about downside based on VVIX being back near post-COVID lows…

So what then is the largest DOWNSIDE RISK to Equities? 

Outside of “Mag 7” guidance disappointments, I believe the next worst-case scenario for current positioning in Stocks would be an “Animal Spirits” US data reacceleration which forces the above “dovish trifecta” off-course and blows-out the recently calming “Fed Rates path” distribution again:Why would resumption of better US growth data negatively impact US Equities consensus thematic / singles positioning?Because after the 4Q23 de-grossing of short books and forced “Net-up” to stop the bleed and chase (massive squeeze & cover in low quality / cyclical value / leveraged balance sheet / high short interest “junk”)….2024 YTD has instead seen the market reset the prior “Momentum” regime of “Long Quality / Size / Secular Growth” i.e. MegaCap Tech, while re-shorting that economically-sensitive “low quality / junk” stuff againIn a world of slowing but positive growth to 2% GDP and now with 3m inflation annualizing sub 2% target…you go back to that “QE of old” 2010s -decade playbook of “long stuff that can grow earnings and profits without needing a hot economic cycle”…i.e. long quality, size (liquid) & secular growth / short leverage & cyclical valueBut IF we see the “animal spirits” data reacceleration off the back of the massive FCI easing that the Fed and Treasury have facilitated, plus the persistent wage growth and still too strong labor meaning consumption remains robust, along with ongoing govt fiscal stim / spending…

.

..we risk a chance of inflation pivoting away from the current disinflationary trajectory (God-forbid actual “reflation”) which would could see that “long secular growth / short econ sensitive / cyclical value’ trade get a shock reversal…

…as long-end Yields and accordingly then, financial conditions, re-tighten and smash the “high valuation” Quality / Secular Growth stuff, while the heavily hated / shorted Cyclicals would painfully squeeze higher.Don’t forget, we’ve seen that happen before (yes we know the magnitudes of the inflationary impulse are different, but the timing of the human-emotion/monetary-policy-over-confidence double-rip in inflation is unquestionable)…

So, be careful what you wish for from higher and higher all-time-highs for stocks – the stronger they look (on the back of dovish expectations), the more likely The Fed is to hold back the actual dovish actions so much hope is founded on.

Bailout Part Deux? Prepare For “Very Ugly” Two Years Of CRE Turmoil With $2.5 Trillion In CRE Debt Maturing In Next 5 Years

Remember the massive bank bailout of “subprime” mortgage securities back that resulted in the Dodd-Frank banking legislation of 2010? Yes know, where they promised NO MORE BANK BAILOUTS EVER??? Particularly if Disease X is unleashed and we start shutting down economies and schools again. Will we see ANOTHER bank bailout??

Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick spoke with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on the sidelines at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. He offered a bleak outlook on the commercial real estate sector, warning a “very ugly” two years is ahead. 

“Coming due in the next two and a half years at these higher rates – you’re not going to get proceeds, meaning when you have a $120 million loan on a building, and someone says I’ll give you 90 million at a much higher rate – than it throws the keys back to the lenders – and there’s going to be a lot of them that are going to get wiped out,” Lutnick told Bartiromo.

“I think $700 billion could default … The lenders are going to have to do things with them. They’re going to be selling. It’s going to be a generational change in real estate coming at the end of 2024 and all of 2025. We will be talking about real estate being just a massive change,” Lutnick said.

He warned: “I think it’s going to be a very, very ugly market in owning real estate over the next, you know, 18 months, two years.” 

Lutnick noted that loan sales are set to become a major business opportunity with the upcoming maturity of CRE mortgages. He highlighted that an estimated trillion dollars of CRE debt is coming due over the next 2.5 years.  

Shortly after the regional bank implosion in March 2023, Morgan Stanley penned a note to clients about a $2.5 trillion wall of CRE debt coming due over five years. 

A recent survey of Terminal users by Bloomberg’s Markets Live found most respondents believe the office tower market needs a deeper correction before a rebound materializes. 

Lutnick pointed out, “Real estate equity, REITS, are going to be in trouble … a lot of them are going to be wiped out, so many defaults, I think.” 

Bloomberg office REITs have been plunging since early 2022 when the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in a generation to tame inflation. 

“Commercial real estate is experiencing a meaningful repricing as cap rates correlate to long-term to interest rates,” Morgan Stanley told clients in a recent report, adding, “Patience is required while refinancing to higher debt costs gradually triggers valuation adjustments.” 

Lutnick’s not the only one with a dismal outlook on CRE. 

In a recent interview, Scott Rechler, Chairman and CEO of RXR Realty, told Goldman’s Allison Nathan that the CRE downturn is still in the early innings

The Bidenomics Roadmap! Existing Home Sales (4.09 million) Drop To Lowest Level Since 1995 (Lowest SAAR Since 2010)

American homebuyers are going down the road of Bidenomics and feeling bad. Is this the roadmap for the US??

Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% MoM in December, worse than the +0.3% expected, leaving sales down

Source: Bloomberg

Total Existing Home Sales in December 2023 were 3.78mm – the lowest SAAR since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

But, on an annual basis, this is the worst year on record (back to at least 1995)..

Source: Bloomberg

“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”

Existing Home Sales were flat in the Northeast, lower in the MidWest and the South, and up marginally in the West (driven by single-family-home sales as condo sales declined)…

Source: Bloomberg

Last month, the number of previously owned homes for sale dropped to 1 million, the lowest since March.

At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 3.2 months.

Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight resale market.

That lack of inventory is helping to keep prices elevated.

The median selling price climbed 4.4% to $382,600 in December from a year ago, reflecting increases in all four regions. Prices hit a record of $389,800 in 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

But, with mortgage rates having tumbled (and given the lagged responses), are sales about to start rising again?

Source: Bloomberg

So The Fed managed to kill sales, collapse inventories, send home prices higher, destroying affordability… and now what is going to happen?

Is Bidenomics the Highway To Hell?

Who designed this photoshoot for an accordian band?? Not sure I want to have a party with this crew!

The Bidenomics Plunge! Single-Family Home-Starts Plunged In December (But Permits UP)

While the Nestea plunge was meant to be refreshing, the housing starts plunge is not refreshing at all. Just another warning about the shortcomings of Bidenomics.

Despite mortgage rates having tumbled (relatively-speaking), and homebuilder sentiment picking back up post-Fed-pivot, expectations were for a plunge back to reality for Housing Starts in December after November’s unexpected surge. Permits were expected to rise only very modestly.

Analysts were right in direction but wrong in magnitude – too bearish. Housing starts declined 4.3% MoM (vs -8.7% MoM exp and +10.8% MoM in November, a big downward revision from the initial +14.8% MoM). Building permits also rose more than expected (+1.9% MoM vs +0.6% exp but saw November’s 2.5% MoM decline upwardly revised to -2.1% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

On a SAAR basis, Housing Starts and Building Permits are higher YoY

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, single-family permits rose for the 12th month in a row (i.e. every month in 2023) but single-family home starts plunged 8.6% MoM after surging 15.4% MoM in November… that is the biggest monthly decline since July 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps the optimism among homebuilders about future sales is a little overdone given their actions?

Source: Bloomberg

And why would starts be down so much if rates are tumbling?

Source: Bloomberg

Still along way to go for mortgages to be affordable…

Source: Bloomberg

Will less supply of new homes do anything to help the Shelter component of CPI (hint – no!).

The Empire Strikes Out! Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Suffers Biggest 2-Month Collapse (Ex-COVID) In History

The themesong for Bidenomics is the Imperial March from Star Wars.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January crashed from -14.5 to -43.7 – the worst print in the survey’s history outside of the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

This chart show employees crashing by -6.9.

The -43.7 print was a stunning 10 standard deviations below expectations of a bounce to -5.0…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was a bloodbath. New orders slumped more than 38 points to minus 49.4, the weakest since April 2020, while shipments dropped by the most since August. Worse still, the index of prices paid for materials increased to a three-month high.

But hope remains high as the six-month outlook for overall activity improved to a three-month high, suggesting manufacturing will stabilize at a weak level. The measure of the outlook for capital expenditures increased to the highest since April 2023, suggesting a pickup in investment.

However, the spread between current reality and a hopeful future is at near record highs (record Ex-COVID-lockdowns)…

“Bidenomics” for the win…

Simply Unaffordable! 31% Of Gen Zers Living With Parents (Home Prices UP 32.5% Under Biden, Mortgage Rates UP 140.5% Under Bidenomics, Rent CPI UP 19.2%)

Housing is simply unaffordable under Bidenomics, a strange brew of big corporate green subsidies, political handouts (any wonder why Biden is forgiving student loans in an election year?) and bad Fed policy errors.

But young Americans don’t always have a sugar daddy like Hunter Biden has who are willing to pay for rent for political parasites like those in Washington DC.

Young adults used to dream of moving out of their parents’ homes and into their own apartments, but living alone has become a luxury not everyone can afford. Not surprising, since home prices under Biden have risen 32.5% while 30-year mortgage rates are up a staggering 140.5% under Clueless Joe.

But in growth terms (year-over-year), White House Propagandists Karine Jean Pierre and John Kirby will no doubt focus on the cooling of housing prices and mortgage rates … although both are reaccelerating.

Rent CPI is up 19.2% under Clueless Joe.

How does this impact younger Americans? According to a recent study by Intuit Credit Karma, 31% of Gen Zers are living with their parents because they can’t afford to rent or buy their own place. Overall, 11% of American adults still live at home with their parents.

“The current housing market has many Americans making adjustments to their living situations, including relocating to less-expensive cities and even moving back in with their families,” said Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Intuit Credit Karma.

Even young adults who live alone are reconsidering their living arrangements because costs are too high.

About a quarter (27%) of Gen Zers reported that they could no longer afford rent and 25% said they’ll have to move back in with family to make ends meet.

Millennials are in the same boat: 30% say rent is unaffordable, and 25% are thinking about moving back in with their parents.

The research is consistent with a 2021 study conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, which showed that one in three adults ages 18 to 34 live with their parents.

In a 2022 study, Pew Research also found that the percentage of Americans living with their parents has increased steadily since 2000. Pew calls these living arrangements “multigenerational households,” and said young adults ages 25 to 29 are most likely to cohabit with their parents.

Different studies, but all tell the same story: Finances are the top reason young adults are still living with family.

Housing and rental costs rise

It’s hardly surprising that young adults are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs and living expenses have skyrocketed since the pandemic, and younger generations have faced the most financial hardship.

As Creditnews Research reports, Millennials and Gen Zers have been locked out of homeownership due to rising home prices, elevated interest rates, and stagnant real wages (adjusted for inflation).

For example, in 2023, Millennials accounted for only 28% of homebuyers despite being in their prime home-buying age. Gen Zers barely made a dent in the housing market, accounting for a paltry 4% of all buyers.

According to Fed data, average home prices were $431,000 as of the third quarter of 2023.

The rental market isn’t much better. Although rent costs have declined for three straight months, landlords are still asking for $1,964 per month on average, per Redfin data. Average rents were below $1,650 at the start of Covid.

But the problem of surging rents goes back much longer than that. According to a report from Moody’s Analytics, rent prices grew 135% between 1999 and 2022, while average incomes for all age groups were up 77% over the same period.

In terms of earning potential, younger generations are at the lower end of the totem pole, so they’re more likely to be affected by rising rent prices.

Where’s the “strong economy” everyone always talks about?

While the U.S. economy has steered clear of recession and unemployment remains near historic lows, Americans are still struggling to afford basic expenses. This is especially true for younger generations.

A 2023 study conducted by Deloitte found that more than half of Millennials and Gen Zers were living paycheck to paycheck. Perhaps shockingly, 37% of Millennials and 46% of Gen Z reported taking another part-time or full-time job just to afford their bills.

As it turns out, people working multiple jobs could be inflating the seemingly rosy job numbers.

Working longer hours and barely scraping by is one of the main reasons why younger adults feel they’re worse off financially than their parents were at their age.

An August 2023 study conducted by The Harris Poll found that 74% of Millennials and 65% of Gen Zers believe they are starting further behind financially than previous generations.

“They’re telling us they can’t buy into that American dream the way that their parents and grandparents thought about it—because it’s not attainable,” said The Harris Poll CEO John Gerzema.

Remember, Clueless Joe Biden is in charge! (or Obama, take your pick).

16 Tons? Disney/Universal Adopt Old Coal Mining Company Town Models For Housing (Housing Construction Growth NEGATIVE With High Mortgage Rates)

Tennessee Ernie Ford sang it best with his hit “16 Tons.” Where he warbles the line “I sold my soul to the company store.

Well, Disney and Universal aren’t planning old coal-mining company stores … yet … but they are getting into the housing market.

Orlando, Florida, is on the front line of an industry trend as major employers like Universal and Disney look to close the area’s workforce housing gap.

For visitors, Universal Studios Florida offers a chance to visit a fantastical land full of wizards, Minions and various characters from NBC Universal’s many film and television properties. But for the roughly 28,000 men and women who work at the 840-acre theme park and resort complex in Orlando, the troubles of the real world — like the rising cost of housing — are not far away.

Central Florida has seen some of the nation’s fastest pandemic-era rent increases, thanks to a confluence of job growth, migration and housing underproduction that has put a strain on residents. The average tenant in the region saw their monthly rent jump by $600 between early 2020 and early 2023. According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area has one of the worst affordable housing shortages in the US, with only 15 available units for every 100 extremely low-income renter households.

The dire need for workforce housing is behind the entertainment conglomerate’s latest project in Central Florida: a 1,000-unit mixed-use development, set to open in 2026, that promises to give tenants who work in the service industry a short commute to the constellation of tourist attractions and hotels nearby. To launch the project, Universal donated 20 acres of land adjacent to the Orange County convention center. Called Catchlight Crossings and built in partnership with local developer Wendover Housing Partners, the project broke ground in November.

Universal’s nearby rival is also wading into affordable housing. In 2022, Walt Disney Co. announced plans to donate 80 acres for a proposed 1,450-unit affordable development a few miles to the southwest. Also set to open in 2026, the project would be built near Flamingo Crossings Village, a campus for participants in Disney’s college internship program that also leases units to some Disney World cast members. (Oh great, brainwashing by woke Disney types).

As housing costs in Central Florida have soared, the theme park giants have faced criticism for underpaying workers. In June, Universal raised its minimum wage by $2 to $17 an hour, while Disney, which employs 82,00 people in Florida, agreed to bump its starting hourly rate to $18 in 2024. Still, both lag behind the $18.85 that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Living Wage Calculator estimates would be needed to support an adult with no children in Orange County.

Disney Welcomes Back Guests To Windblown Florida Theme Park
Visitors throng Disney’s Magic Kingdom in Orlando.Photographer: David Ryder/Bloomberg

Even smaller theme parks in more affordable areas have become homebuilders in an effort to ease the housing crunch. In May, Indiana’s Holiday World opened a $7 million development called Compass Commons, which is meant to provide seasonal housing for up to 136 employees. It will replace a proposed theme park attraction that was set to open last summer.

Such partnerships between entertainment industry employers, developers and local government represent the latest spin on a solution for the ongoing scarcity of apartments for lower-income households. Catchlight Crossings is part of Universal’s Housing to Tomorrow initiative, which was inspired by the Orange County mayor’s Housing for All Task Force. The company represents almost 10% of the tax base of Orange County, which includes Orlando.

“What could we do that would be more than just the typical corporate response?” said John Sprouls, executive vice president and chief administrative officer at Universal Parks and Resorts. “If you’re going to provide affordable housing, providing affordable housing where the jobs are sure makes a lot of sense.”

The Truly Missing Middle

Workforce housing is a much-needed housing type without a precise definition. Unlike affordable housing, which must meet stringent rental rates matched to specific income levels to qualify for government support and subsidies — typically 40% of units need to be priced to support those households who make 60% of the area median income — workforce housing stands as more of a catch-all term. Some define it as housing that serves those making between 80% and 120% of median area income. Often, the term is used to invoke housing for teachers, first responders and other public servants who have been increasingly priced out of expensive metros.

Over the last decade, and through the recent pandemic-era surge in apartment construction, developers have largely ignored the lower end of the market, focusing instead on Class A apartments. Beginning in 2013, half or more of units delivered each year were considered high-end or luxury, according to statistics from the National Multifamily Housing Council. Only since the middle of 2022 has that shifted towards Class B, or more affordable units.

Seeking lower production costs and rents, a handful of big developers have created new sub-brands of apartments designed to appeal to less-monied tenants. Grubb Properties launched a series of “car-light” developments called Link, which emphasize accessibility to major urban employers, while Greystar’s Modern Living Solutions concept offers modular multifamily buildings that are assembled on site from factory-built elements in an effort to trim construction costs.

To promote more construction of this type of housing, a bipartisan coalition of federal lawmakers recently introduced the Workforce Housing Tax Credit Act. Like the low-income housing tax credit, the proposed legislation would provide tax credit to investors who build affordable apartments. The bill’s sponsors, including Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, say the credit would finance approximately 344,000 affordable rental homes. It’s been a pet issue for Wyden in particular; 70% of Oregon school districts have built or rented housing to provide support for their teachers.

Nationwide, the US is short approximately 2.2 million workforce units, according to a 2022 Fannie Mae study. Central Florida’s service-based economy has left it with one of the highest levels of need, Wendover founder and Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Wolf said. There are roughly 100,000 people living within a five-mile radius of Catchlight Crossings who would income-qualify for the development.

Besides pools for residents, the proposed Universal development will include such amenities as a preschool and adult education center.Credit: Wendover Housing Partners

Rents at the Universal-led project will range from $400 to $2,200, depending on income qualifications (the average two-bedroom unit in the area rents for just shy of $1,900 a month). The development will also contain medical offices, retail, community space including pools and fitness centers, bike and walking paths and a tuition-free Bezos Academy preschool and adult education center. A transit center will connect residents to buses, ride-hailing services and company shuttles; a stop on the proposed Sunshine Corridor, a new east-west rail line that’s designed to help tourism workers get around, may take shape nearby.

“You’re not creating an economic ghetto,” Wolf said. “You’re creating a lifestyle enhancement for so many people, giving folks the ability for mobility.”

The theme park giant owns a few thousand acres in the area, so this was a relatively small donation, according to Sprouls. It also comes during a time of booming profits: Central Florida’s tourism industry generated a record $87.6 billion in economic impact in 2022. And since Universal transferred the land via a 501c3 charity with deed restrictions, the donation can lower development costs and help ensure long-term affordability; lots of affordable housing tends to revert back to market-rate pricing after a set term.

Employer-sponsored projects like Catchlight Crossings can’t mandate that only their employees can be tenants — that would violate fair housing rules. But for a customer-facing company like Universal, working to close the region’s housing gap can pay direct benefits, Sprouls said. When employees can’t find housing nearby and need to drive hours to get to work, it impacts not just their performance, but the guest experiences that drive satisfaction and repeat visits.

Universal Orlando Reopens To Public As Florida Enters Phase 2
Park guests arrive at the Universal Studios theme park in Orlando in 2020.Photographer: Zack Wittman/Bloomberg

“It helps us to be able to recruit because people are able to have jobs here,” Sprouls said. “Salaries go into making you an attractive employer in the area, but you also need to make this an attractive place to live.”

Corporate Housing’s Mixed Record

Still, it remains to be seen if privately financed efforts like the Universal and Disney investments can have a significant impact on the lives of local renters. Other industries, most notably tech, have poured hundreds of millions of dollars and even billions into financing the construction of workforce housing near their headquartersAmazon.com Inc.Google and Meta Platforms Inc. have all done variations of this kind of development, with mixed results. Many such efforts took off after severe backlash to the impact tech jobs had on local housing markets, and most were in the forms of loans, financing and leases, which can be helpful but not exactly game-changing. Recent swings in interest rates and increases in housing costs, not to mention struggles in the tech industry, have curtailed many of these programs.

“There was a lot of energy, and then there wasn’t,” Alex Schafran, a visiting scholar at San Jose State University’s Institute for Metropolitan Studies and a former consultant for Facebook’s housing initiative, told the Guardian. “The balloon didn’t pop overnight, but now there’s very little air in it.”

And the support of powerful local employers can’t inoculate these projects from community pushback. At a town meeting for the Disney project in September, residents raised a host of familiar objections about traffic congestion, school crowding and site location. When it comes to building multifamily developments, even Goofy has to contend with NIMBYs.

Wendover’s Wolf argues that while the financing part is critical, it may not be enough. His firm has been very involved in pushing for more government support for the affordable housing projects they specialize in. Associate Ryan von Weller, for example, was among the local developers who consulted with Florida lawmakers on a state bill, Live Local, which directed more than $700 million into supporting affordable housing. (Sprouls said Universal won’t see any tax benefits from their land donation.) But Wolf believes the area’s big corporate employers need to play a bigger role in solving this crisis.

“We need your involvement in it in a very direct way to work alongside us, to make this a success,” he said. “It’s not just a simple check and walk away. We need the land. We need cooperation.”

Here is the REAL problem with the lack of housing stock. Growth of new housing units has slowed to negative speeds as mortgage rates soared, but aren’t growing again with declining mortgage rates which remain relatively high. Add in the 11 million or so illegal immigrants crossing the border and we have a major problem.

US Mortgage Rates UP 141% Under Biden As M2 Money Growth Collapses (Fed Funds Rate Still Growing At 22.2% YoY)

The Federal Reserve has line on you!

The Federal Reserve has tightened their monetary manipulations to combat inflation caused by loose monetary policy and excessive spending by Biden and Congress.

The result? US conforming 30-year mortgage rates are up 8.3% since last year and up a whopping 141% since the beginning of 2021 (the year Biden was selected to be President).

Check out mortgage rate GROWTH (blue line) as M2 Money growth *green line) went negative (orange box).

This graph corresponds nicely with this chart of YoY changes in The Fed Funds rate. Which is still rising at a rate of 22.2% year-over-year (YoY).

The 30-year mortgage rate had been falling after peaking in August 2023 after peaking at 7.299%. The latest reading on January 11, 2024 was 6.662%.