1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce 2. Wisense: 100% of workforce 3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce 4. Twig: 100% of workforce 5. Twitch: 35% of workforce 6. Roomba: 31% of workforce 7. Bumble: 30% of workforce 8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce 9. Away: 25% of workforce 10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce 11. LA Times: 20% of workforce 12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce 13. Finder: 17% of workforce 14. Spotify: 17% of workforce 15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce 16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce 17. Xerox: 15% of workforce 18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce 19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce 20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce 21. Rivian: 10% of workforce 22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce 23. Snap: 10% of workforce 24. eBay: 9% of workforce 25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce 26. Expedia: 8% of workforce 27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce 28. Instacart: 7% of workforce 29. Paypal: 7% of workforce 30. Okta: 7% of workforce 31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce 32. Docusign: 6% of workforce 33. Riskified: 6% of workforce 34. EA: 5% of workforce 35. Motional: 5% of workforce 36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce 37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce 38. CISCO: 5% of workforce 39. UPS: 2% of workforce 40. Nike: 2% of workforce 41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce 42. Paramount: 3% of workforce 43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees 44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees 45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees 46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees 47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000 48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees 49. Pixar: 1,300 employees 50. Perrigo: 500 employees
But, according to the government-supplied data…
The number of American filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped to 209k (vs 218k exp) with the NSA number tumbling to 200k…
Source: Bloomberg
How is this possible, you may ask… well let us show you the ways… New York State claims that its jobless benefits rolls collapsed last week. New York accounted for 99.75% of the weekly change in initial claims across the entire US as shown below…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing Claims was a shit show – with a massive 112k person downward revision for last week from 1.906 million to 1.794mm. That is the 5th straight weekly downward revision of continuing claims…
Source: Bloomberg
But thanks to the adjustments, it all looks ‘normal’ and ‘stable’ at around 1.8 million Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
And WARN numbers are rising rapidly…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, if you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin’s data, here’s what the most recent FOMC Minutes said:
“While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”
Even they aren’t buying it, and neither should you!
Following yesterday’s release of Biden’s $7.3 trillion budget, the Biden administration bragged about lowering the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade – an average of 0.8% of GDP over that period.
This would consist of roughly $2.6 trillion over 10 years in additional spending programs, offset by around $4.8 trillion in tax increases over the same period. Most of the tax and spending proposals have been included in prior budget proposals from the White House, according to Goldman’s Alec Phillips, however there are several new items.
The budget would increase the corporate alternative minimum tax on book income from 15% to 21%, raising $137 billion over the next decade. It also limits a corporation’s ability to deduct employee pay exceeding $1mm/year, raising $272 billion over 10 years. The largest proposed tax increases include; raising the corporate minimum tax from 21% to 28%, as well as a series of tax increases on high-income earners, including new Medicare taxes, and a new 25% minimum tax on incomes over $100 million, raising $500 billion over the next decade.
Of course, it has zero chance of passing under the current Congress – but that’s not the point.
As one DC strategist wrote in a morning email noted by CNBC‘s Brian Sullivan, the budget deficit will still grow by another $16 trillion over the next decade – and that’s with aforementioned tax hikes.
Without them, the deficit grows to $19 trillion.
In short, talk of ‘$3 trillion saved’ is total bullshit in the grand scheme of things, given how much the national debt will grow in the best case scenario.
“No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math,” says Sullivan.
Yes Brian, no family budget could exist with this kind of math AND SPENDING!
And the national debt is rising by $1 TRILLION every 100 days. Before Spending Joe’s budget!
Unlike what Grand-dad Joey Biden screamed at the State of The Union (SOTU) address, inflation is NOT been defeated. In fact, inflation has defeated Biden and The Federal Reserve.
The 3-month annualized CPI rate was rose to 2.8% from 1.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate dropped to 3.2% from 3.3%.
Energy costs surged MoM as Core Services inflation slowed MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Full CPI MoM breakdown:
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in February, as it did the previous month.
The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in February and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
The index for rent rose 0.5 percent over the month, while the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.4 percent.
The lodging away from home index increased 0.1 percent in February, after rising 1.8 percent in January.
The airline fares index rose 3.6 percent in February, following a 1.4-percent increase in January.
The index for motor vehicle insurance increased 0.9 percent over the month.
The medical care index was unchanged in February after rising 0.5 percent in January.
The index for hospital services decreased 0.6 percent over the month and the index for physicians’ services decreased 0.2 percent.
The prescription drugs index fell 0.1 percent in February.
The index for dental services was among those that rose in February, increasing 0.4 percent.
The index for personal care fell 0.5 percent in February, following a 0.6-percent increase in January.
The household furnishings and operations index fell 0.1 percent over the month, as did the new vehicles index.
Among other indexes that rose in February were apparel, recreation, and used cars and trucks.
Full CPI YoY breakdown:
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8 percent over the past 12 months.
The shelter index increased 5.7 percent over the last year, accounting for roughly two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the core CPI index
Feb Shelter inflation: 5.74% down from 6.04% in Jan
Feb rent inflation: 5.77%, down from 6.09% in Jan
Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+20.6 percent), medical care (+1.4 percent), recreation (+2.1 percent), and personal care (+4.2 percent).
Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM (hotter than the +0.3% exp) and up 3.8% YoY (hotter than the +3.7% exp), but still the lowest since April 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
The 3-month annualized Core CPI rate was rose to 4.1% from 3.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%.
Core Goods actually rose MoM for the first time since June 2023…
Goods deflation continues (-0.3% YoY) but has flattened out, while services inflation remains stubbornly high at +5.2% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
And one step deeper – the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index – soared 0.5% MoM up to 4.5% YoY – the hottest since May 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
While SuperCore CPI slowed MoM, there was a large jump in Transportation Services MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up 19% since Bidenomics was unleashed. And prices have never been more expensive…
Source: Bloomberg
That is an average of 5.6% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).
So, about that shrinkflation – did companies only ‘get greedy’ when Biden took office?
But it gets worse, real wage growth has lagged significantly for the average joe in America…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite a very modest decline in Feb, Food costs are up over 21% since Biden’s term began, but non-supervisory wages are up only 18%.
Bidenomics for the win!
Are we going to see a replay on the ’70s?
Source: Bloomberg
The market narrative of slow and steady disinflation just broke harder.
…or are we still set for a massive wave of depressionary deflation?
Inflation remains hot, hot, hot although Biden/Yellen will undoubtedly say that it is lower than last year. But remember, consumer prices are up a staggering 19% under Bidenomics. THAT is a major tax of those making under $200,000 per year, Joey.
In statistics we talk about “jump processes.” Like Federal government spending every time there is a financial crisis like the subprime crisis of 2008-2009 and the Covid lockdowns of 2020. Each crisis brought a jump in the level of spending and jump in Federal debt.
Federal debt under Biden started at $27.7 trillion and is currently at $34.5 trillion, that amounts to $6.75 TRILLION in additional debt under Old Grand-dad Joe Biden. Federal spending, of course, is out of control with Biden/Congress spending $569 BILLION since Joey took office.
Generally speaking, the Federal government needs to justify the elevated levels of Federal spending, like another COVID outbreak, escalate the war in Ukraine, get into a hot war with Iran and China, or … say … Washington DC pols never need much of an excuse to go on a spending spree.
If only Biden would retire gracefully. He could be the new face of “Old Grand-dad Bourbon Whiskey.” Except Biden’s version would be an angry 80+ year old man with dementia.
Somehow, Biden left this factoid out of his State of The Union (SOTU) address. In February, immigrants added 1,277 million jobs while native Americans lost -420,000 jobs according to the BLS. Or maybe Biden can change his campaign motto to “Make America Great Again … For Immigrants, NOT Natives.”
In February, the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years…
It is clear that the labor market is softening, but Biden/Mayorkas will continue to let millions of illegal immigrants pour across the border making the labor market even softer than before. But the top 1% are making out like bandits from the illegal immigration. Bandits benefitting bandits.
After witnessing the debacle called “The State of the Union Address” or “Crazy Grandfather Screams At Nation To Get Off His Lawn,” I was hoping that today’s jobs report would make me happier. It didn’t. In fact, the February jobs report was downright awful.
Maybe now you can understand why Biden gave his angry SOTU speech. Perhaps he saw how bad February’s jobs report was for Middle class America and was trying to redirect the rage away from himself towards the Supreme Court, MAGA Republicans, corporate America (his biggest donors?), and the 6 year old that walked across The White House Lawn uninvited.
Well, if a $73 billion dollar deficit isn’t bad enough, the California State Assembly took a giant step towards bankruptcy by … seriously … A controversial bill that would let illegal immigrants receive the same kind of homebuyer assistance as U.S. citizens has advanced in the California state legislature, drawing criticism from those who object to granting perks to people who break the law by entering the country illegally.
The measure, Assembly Bill 1840, was first introduced in mid-January, and after several amendments, it advanced last week to the Committee on Housing and Community Development, where it awaits further action.
Assembly Bill 1840 would change existing law to allow illegal immigrants to be eligible for the California Dream for All Fund, which provides interest-free loans for a down payment on a home for first-time buyers.
The bill was introduced by California Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula, a Democrat, who last month told GV Wire, a Fresno-based news outlet, that he “wanted to ensure that qualified first-time homebuyers include undocumented applicants.” (Note to Arambula: According to Redfin, there are no homes for $150,000 or less.
Last week, as the bill advanced to committee after amendments, Mr. Arambula told the Los Angeles Times that, historically, homeownership has been the main way people accumulate generational wealth in the United States.
“The social and economic benefits of homeownership should be available to everyone,” he said, arguing that it’s wrong to exclude people from the benefits of the California Dream for All Fund program just because they’re illegal immigrants.
Some lawmakers expressed opposition to the measure as it moves closer to becoming law.
“Assembly Bill 1840 is an insult to California citizens who are being left behind and priced out of homeownership. I’m all for helping first-time homebuyers, but give priority to those who are here in our state legally,” California Sen. Brian Dahle, a Republican, said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
More Details
The California Dream for All Fund program, administered by the state’s Housing Finance Agency, provides loans for 20 percent of a home’s value but no greater than $150,000. (Good luck finding a house in Los Angeles for under $150,000!) Here is a home in Chico California for $55,000!
Qualifying homebuyers repay the loans when selling or transferring the property plus 20 percent of any appreciation in its value. Applicants who earn less than their county’s area median income get a slight break, having to pay 15 percent of the appreciation. If a home doesn’t appreciate in value, only the principal will be paid back, meaning the loan is technically interest-free.
To make matters worse, Los Angeles housing prices are up 33% under China Joe Biden and California Governor Gavin Newsom. NOW they want to drive housing into even more unaffordable territory with allowing illegal immigrants to buy a home with 100% loan-to-value (100% LTV and NO INTEREST!).
The proposed bill seeks to amend Section 51523 of the California Health and Safety Code to include a subsection that reads: “An applicant under the program shall not be disqualified solely based on the applicant’s immigration status.”
Mr. Arambula has defended the program, arguing in the interview with GV Wire last month that it won’t affect the state budget because the loans are supposed to be paid back with an appreciation fee.
Even though the net impact of the program on the state budget is technically neutral-to-positive, some critics argue that it sends the wrong message and effectively rewards illegal immigration.
“We have a huge housing crisis in California and anything we can do to get people into housing we should do. However, we should help our own first. This next generation of people growing up can’t afford a house. I’ve got two kids in their early 30s and most of their friends do not own houses,” San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican, told NBC 7 San Diego.
Mr. Desmond has been a vocal critic of policies that he says create incentives for people to enter the country illegally.
“You incentivize illegal immigration by providing free healthcare, free unemployment benefits and tons of other freebies,” he wrote in a recent post on X, reacting to a post by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who called on Congressional Republicans to back President Joe Biden’s border deal.
“It’s no wonder we are getting thousands of people by the day. This is on you as much as the Federal Government,” Mr. Desmond added.
Mr. Desmond said on March 3 that over 5,000 illegal immigrants had been released in San Diego County over the past 10 days.
“What’s striking about the people being dropped here by the Border Patrol is about 70 percent of them are single males,” he told Fox News.
While many of the new arrivals are being taken to the airport by local nongovernmental organizations to fly out to someplace else in the country, Mr. Desmond lamented that “in the meantime, our airport is now the new migrant shelter.”
His remarks come as the United States remains in the throes of an illegal immigration crisis of historic proportions, with some border patrol officials and others warning of a national security risk.
Military-Aged Men Crossing Border
The head of the Border Patrol union recently warned about the sharp rise in the number of military-aged Chinese men crossing the U.S.–Mexico border illegally.
National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said in a recent interview on “Just the News, No Noise” TV program that he believes some of them may be spies working on behalf of China’s communist regime to infiltrate the United States.
“At best, they’re here for a better life,” Mr. Judd said. “At worst, they’re here to be part of the Chinese government to infiltrate our own country.”
Buses drop off large groups of illegal immigrants in San Ysidro, Calif., on Feb. 29, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)
His remarks came as U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released its latest data for January encounters with illegal immigrants who crossed the border into the United States.
Aside from showing that Border Patrol agents encountered a record number of illegal immigrants (242,587) in January 2024 compared to any previous January, the CPB numbers show an alarming trend in the number of military-aged Chinese nationals entering the country illegally.
Border Patrol agents encountered 5,717 single Chinese adults in January, more than twice the number of any other January on record, CBP data shows. In December 2023, that figure rose to a record of 7,581, while the total since January 2023 stands at 64,979.
Some analysts say that deteriorating economic conditions in China, along with human rights abuses and policies such as strict COVID-19 lockdowns, are likely driving the increase.
The San Diego Sector has seen a more than 500 percent jump in the number of Chinese nationals entering the country illegally, according to Jason Owens, the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol.
Yes, it is the Ides of March. No, not Nikki Haley trying to sabotage Donald Trump’s campaign after Nikki got clobbered in all but two state primaries. So in a sour grapes move, Haley didn’t endorse Trump. But the Ides of March refers to the stabbing of Julius Caesar (led by Brutus).
Once the darling of the small banking crisis comeback, New York Community Bancorp has crashed 45% to fresh 30 year lows after The Wall Street Journal reportsthe bank is seeking to raise equity capital in a bid to shore up confidence in the troubled regional lender.
According to people familiar with the matter, NYCB has dispatched bankers to gauge investors’ interest in buying stock in the company.
There’s no guarantee there will be a deal, or that one would succeed in addressing the bank’s challenges, which as of Wednesday morning had led to a roughly 80% decline in its stock price since January.
This is not a good picture for a bank… Would you hold your deposits there?
Last month, DiNello laid out a series of options the bank could explore to bolster its balance sheet, including selling assets from certain non-core businesses. The bank has also considered turning to newfangled financial instruments that would share the risks of those loans with outside investors, people familiar with the matter said.
As WSJ reports, finding takers for those assets, at least at prices that would make a deal worthwhile, has been challenging and U.S. officials have expressed reservations with banks pursuing credit-risk transfers that would shift the burden of potential losses to entities outside of the regulated banking system.
Finally, as a reminder, NYCB is not alone. The red line below shows ‘small banks’ are in trouble absent The Fed’s BTFP facility…
Housing is simply unaffordable for millions of Americans. Home prices are up 33% under Biden’s Reign of Error, while mortgage rates are up 146% under Vacation Joe. Somehow I doubt if Biden will brag about home prices and mortgage rate in his State of the Union address.
On the mortgage side, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 8 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Let’s start with gold. Extending their run of the last few days, spot gold prices just exceeded their all-time highs, topping $2140 for the first time in history…
Source: Bloomberg
A longer view.
Source: Bloomberg
What is gold pricing in about future Fed action? Real rates dramatically negative? As Luke Gromen noted on X:
“When gold rises in your currency DESPITE positive real rates, the gold market is saying ‘Your government will have a debt spiral if real rates remain positive’.“
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin just hit $68,567.57, also an all-time high.
The Alt-Assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin) have counterattacked!!
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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