Fed Fireball? US PPI Final Demand UP +11.3% YoY As Fed May Raise Rates 100 Basis Points At July 27th FOMC Meeting (Stocks In A Sea of Red)

Face it. The Biden Administration has little interest in trying to increase the supply fossil fuel energy which would anger his “green” base (like building more refineries or allowing for more crude oil and natural gas exploration). So, the burden of “inflation fighting” falls on the frail shoulders of The Federal Reserve.

Given today’s US Producer Price Index Final Demand prices rising +11.3% YoY in June, it seems that The Fed has not been able to extinguish the “Tower of Inflation.” But, Fed Funds Futures are pointing to a near 100 basis point (or 1%) increase in The Fed Funds target rate at the July 27th Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The Fed Funds Futures Data points to a +0.920 (almost 1%) increase at the July 27th FOMC meeting. Followed by rate cuts.

And with the fear of a near 100 basis point increase, today’s stock markets are a sea of red.

It is up to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and policy error brigade to extinguish price increases caused by 1) bad Biden energy policies and 2) too much spending by Biden and Congress. It is like trying to wave-down the Super Chief train with a cigarette lighter.

Yet, the Frail Fed will try to waive down The Super Chief inflation engine with Fed Fireballs. Aka, rate increases of 100 basis points.

Update! Dow down over 500 points this AM.

The Shallows! Traders Fully Price 75-Basis-Point Fed Hike at July Meeting As Mortgage Rates Decline Slightly (Fed Fighting Inflation At All Costs!)

Here we go loop de loop! Traders are pricing in a 75 basis point rate increase at the July FOMC meeting despite collapsing Fed 5-year inflation breakeven rates.

Money markets are betting on a three quarter-percentage point hike by Federal Reserve officials later this month, wagering the US will need to ramp up the pace of monetary tightening to tame inflation.

The repricing comes ahead of a key inflation report due Wednesday. The headline figure for June is set to accelerate to 8.8% year over year, the highest since 1981.

Bankrate’s 30Y mortgage rate fell slightly ahead of today’s inflation report with the expectation of The Fed hiking their target rate by 75 basis points to 2.338% at the July 27th Fed Open Market Committee meeting.

Trader expectations from Fed Funds Futures data:

Last night I watched “The Shallows” on Peacock TV. I thought from the title that it was going to be a biography of The Federal Reserve, but it was a film about a surfer being attacked by a shark.

Inflation Nation! Fed’s 5Y Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate Plunges To Lowest Of Biden’s Presidency As Fed Hikes Rates (Mortgage Rates Resume Soaring)

US inflation is the highest in 40 years, yet inflation may be slowing as 1) The Fed cranks up interest rates and 2) the global economy is slowing.

US inflation data in the coming week may stiffen the resolve of Federal Reserve policy makers to proceed with another big boost in interest rates later this month.

The closely watched consumer price index probably rose nearly 9% in June from a year earlier, a fresh four-decade high. Compared with May, the CPI is seen rising 1.1%, marking the third month in four with an increase of at least 1%.

While persistently high and broad-based inflation is seen persuading Fed officials to raise their benchmark rate 75 basis points for a second consecutive meeting on July 27, recession concerns are mounting. There are signs, though, that price pressures at the producer level are stabilizing as commodities costs — including energy — retreat.

But the expectations of inflation, as measured by The Fed’s 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate, just crashed to 1.8437%.

The breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure of expected inflation. It is the difference between the yield of a nominal bond and an inflation-linked bond of the same maturity.

The USD Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y is also falling like a rock as The Fed hikes their target rate (green line).

Could it be that inflation is cooling with Fed rate hikes (but not the shrinking of their $8 trillion balance sheet)?

Currently, Fed Funds Futures are pointing to a Fed target rate of 3.552% by February 2023. And with that, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate rose to 5.75%. Once again, like velociraptors from Jurassic Park, The Fed’s balance sheet is still out in force.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are keeping The Fed’s balance sheet at near $9 trillion as they hunt assets to inflate.

Money! About That June Jobs Report (The Fed’s Balance Sheet Still Out In Force!)

The Federal Reserve’s policies remind me of the Cabaret tune “Money.” There is still almost $9 trillion in monetary stimulus outstanding.

For all the economic cheerleaders out there like CNBC about the June job report, they generally ignore what is driving the jobs report: The Federal Reserve!

Take the US U-3 unemployment rate. The Biden Administration is proud of the unemployment rate of 3.6%. But if you look at the chart of unemployment relative to The Fed’s balance sheet expansion due to Covid lockdowns, there is still almost $9 trillion of Fed stimulus outstanding.

Of course, the lockdowns were pure economy killers, so opening the economies again led to the unemployment rate falling to 3.6% which is still higher than before the Covid outbreak. But The Federal Reserve has been painfully slow at shrinking its balance sheet, leaving almost $9 trillion in monetary stimulus outstanding.

Take average hourly earnings growth. The media is all smiles as US wage growth declined to 5.1%, much higher than pre-Covid.

Then we have inflation, at 40-years highs thanks to massive Fed stimulus (and Federal spending).

And if we deduct inflation from average hourly wage growth, we see REAL wage growth declining at a -3.25% YoY clip.

Lastly, we have the US Dollar. Nothing has been the same since the financial crisis of 2008 and the entrance of The Federal Reserve distorting the economy and prices. Not to mention the US Dollar.

The Fed leaving its monetary stimulus out in force for so long is a major policy error. So what happens when The Fed actually gets serious about withdrawing the monetary stimulus (likely after the midterm elections)?

Bidenflation Strikes! Dow Down 2% As Recession Fears Grow (Check Out M1 Money Growth!)

Lightning strikes!

Inflation has been a disaster for millions of Americans. As inflation grows (highest in 40 years), fears of recession are jolting markets.

The Dow today is down 2%.

Then again, Europe is down even more.

My favorite chart for explaining the surge in inflation is M1 Money Stock around the Covid outbreak in early 2020. Which has NOT been removed.

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve just inverted.

No, this is not a real ECB currency, but it might as well be.

Slip, Slidin’ Away! US Q2 Real GDP Descends To -2.1% (Late In The Evening For The Midterm Elections!)

Slip slidin’ away
Slip slidin’ away
You know the nearer the midterm elections
The more you’re slip slidin’ away

As Bill Clinton once said about elections, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Which is bad news for Biden and Democrats after Q1’s bad GDP report of -1.6% “growth”, we now see the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP report for Q2 at -2.1%.

Today’s miserable construction spending report helped tank Q2’s real GDP forecast.

Its getting late in the evening since the midterms are only a couple of months away and Biden’s approval rating is miserable.

Sing it, Joe!

Reversal Of Fortune! Fed Funds Futures Point To Feb ’23 Reversal Of Fed Rate Hikes (Recession Alert!) As Crippling Inflation Soars

No, not the Claus von Bülow kind of reversal of fortune where has was accused of killing his wife. But this murder is coming from The Federal Reserve hiking interest rates even when they know that doing so could lead to a recession. And Biden’s anti-fossil fuel energy policies.

“Fed Chair Powell Admits That Fighting Inflation Could Lead To Recession.”

And investors in the Fed Funds Futures market see The Fed changing its rate-hiking ways in February 2023.

Inflation is what is killing the US economy and millions of households. Financially speaking.

And Biden’s approval ratings are sinking faster than The Titanic. In other words, he’s just killing us.

And then we have turbulence in the housing market as Fed intentions are driving up mortgage rate which helped listings with price reductions at 98.2% YoY.

Biden’s energy policies plus The Fed’s war on inflation will result in an economic reversal of fortune.

S&P 500 Posts Worst First Half Rout Since 1970 As 10Y Treasury Yield Tanks 14 Basis Points (Biden Approval Drops To 38.3% On Rising Inflation, Gasoline Prices)

Run runaway! For safety to Treasuries.

A “recession shock” begins for markets following the worst first-half for the S&P 500 in more than 50 years.

And investors are running to Treasuries for safety as US Treasury 10-year yields tank 14 basis points.

Biden’s approval rating has collapse with inflation and rising gasoline prices. Note that Biden’s approval rating dropped below 50 in mid-August 2021, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. Gasoline prices had risen 49% since Biden’s inauguration as President, but before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Winter is coming!

Slowing! US Personal Consumption Expenditures Drop To 0.2% MoM In May As PCE Deflator Hits 6.3% YoY (US Mortgage Rates Slip to 5.7%, the First Decline in Four Weeks)

The US economy is slowing as inflation ravages consumers. US Regular Gasoline prices, for example, are up 104% under President Biden which helps to slow the economy.

US personal consumption expenditures fell to +0.2% MoM in May as “inflation” or real personal consumption expenditures PRICES rose +6.3% YoY as The Fed’s balance sheet (aka, Master Blaster!) remains.

As I mentioned above, US regular gasoline prices are UP 103% under President Biden, diesel prices (the cost of shipping goods to markets like … food is up 119% under Biden while CRB foodstuffs is up 55% under China Joe.

Now we have mortgage rates in the US falling for the first time in four weeks. The average for a 30-year loan was 5.7%, down from 5.81% last week, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday.

This year’s Fourth of July celebration is going to cost 18% more than last year’s celebration.

Lastly, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow real time tracker for Q2 is showing … -1% GDP “growth.”

So, yes, the US economy is slowing.

The Thrill Is Gone! Richmond Fed Index Plummets To Covid-era Levels (Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Falls Below 100) As Fed Withdraws Stimulus

It took a while and trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus to recover from Covid-era economic lockdowns, but now that the monetary stimulus is being withdrawn, the economy is stalling.

If you look at the chart below, you can see that “The Thrill Is Gone” from monetary and fiscal stimulus.

And The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell below 100 as M2 Money Stock YoY returns to pre-Covid levels.

You are gonna have to face it, we’re addicted to gov (stimulus).