The car market bubble is bursting! Subprime auto loan delinquency rates have now surpassed 5% for the first time in history. The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years. Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing.
The office CMBS delinquency rate is at an all-time high.
The office sector of commercial real estate has been in a depression for about two years, with prices of older office towers plunging by 50%, 60%, or 70% from their last transaction, and sometimes even more, with some office towers selling for land value, with the building by itself being worth next to nothing even in Manhattan.
Landlords of office buildings are having trouble collecting enough in rent to even pay the interest on their loans, and they’re having trouble or are finding it impossible to refinance a maturing loan, and so many of them have stopped making interest payments on their mortgages, and delinquencies continue to spike.
The delinquency rate of office mortgages backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 9.4% in October, up a full percentage point from September, and the highest since the worst months of the meltdown that followed the Financial Crisis. The delinquency rate has doubled since June 2023 (4.5%), according to data by Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.
Office CRE fund managers have spread the rumor that office CRE has bottomed out, but the CMBS delinquency rate doesn’t agree with this bottomed-out scenario; it’s aggressively spiking.
Three months ago, the delinquency rate surpassed the surge in delinquencies that followed the American Oil Bust from 2014 through 2016, when hundreds of companies in the US oil-and-gas sector filed for bankruptcy as the price of oil had collapsed due to overproduction, which devastated the Houston office market in 2016.
But now there’s a structural problem that won’t easily go away with the price of oil: A huge office glut has emerged after years of overbuilding and industry hype about the “office shortage” that led big companies to hog office space as soon as it came on the market with the hope they’d grow into it. However, during the pandemic, companies realized that they don’t need all this office space, and vast portions of it sits there vacant and for lease, with vacancy rates in the 25% to 36% range in the biggest markets.
Mortgages are considered delinquent by Trepp when the borrower fails to make the interest payment after the 30-day grace period. A mortgage is not considered delinquent here if the borrower continues to make the interest payment but fails to pay off the mortgage when it matures. This kind of repayment default, while the borrower is current on interest, would be on top of the delinquency rate here.
Loans are pulled off the delinquency list if the interest gets paid, or if the loan is resolved through a foreclosure sale, generally involving big losses for the CMBS holders, or if a deal gets worked out between landlord and the special servicer that represents the CMBS holders, such as the mortgage being restructured or modified and extended.
Survive till 2025 has been the motto. But that might not work either. The Fed has cut its policy rate by 50 basis points in September and is likely to cut more but in smaller increments. Many CRE loans are floating-rate loans that adjust to a short-term rate (SOFR), and short-term rates move largely with the Fed’s policy rates. And floating-rate loans will have lower interest rates as the Fed cuts.
Long-term rates, including fixed-rate mortgage rates have risen sharply since the Fed started cutting rates, so that option isn’t appealing.
So the hope in the CRE industry is that rate cuts will be steep and many, thereby reducing floating-rate interest payments, making it easier for landlords to meet them. And so the prescription was: Survive till 2025, when interest rates would be, they hope, far lower than they were.
But rate cuts will do nothing to address the structural issues that office CRE faces. The landlord of a nearly empty older office tower isn’t going to be able to make the interest payment even at a lower rate when the tower is largely vacant.
And these older office towers face the brunt of the vacancy rates, amid a flight to quality now feasible because of vacancies even at the latest and greatest properties. And there are a lot of these older office towers around that have been refinanced at very high valuations in the years before the pandemic, but whose valuations have now plunged by 50%, 60%, or 70%, and they have become a nightmare for lenders and CMBS holders.
During the first three months of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20 percent for the first time in decades. In San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston, vacancy rates are as high as 25 percent. These figures understate the severity of the crisis because they only cover spaces that are no longer leased. Most office leases were signed before the pandemic and have yet to come up for renewal. Actual office use points to a further decrease in demand. Attendance in the 10 largest business districts is still below 50 percent of its pre-COVID level, as white-collar employees spend an estimated 28 percent of their workdays at home.
A new report from Moody’s offers yet another grim outlook that the commercial real estate downturn is nowhere near the bottom. Elevated interest rates and persistent remote and hybrid working trends could result in around 24% of all office towers standing vacant within the next two years. The office tower apocalypse will result in more depressed values that will only pressure landlords.
“Combining these insights, with our more than 40 years of historic office performance data, as well as future employment projections, our model indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63- month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally,” Moody’s analysts Todd Metcalfe, Anthony Spinelli, and Thomas LaSalvia wrote in the report.
In a separate report, Tom LaSalvia, Moody’s head of CRE economics, wrote that the office vacancy rate’s move from 19.8% in the first quarter of this year to the expected 24% by 2026 could reduce revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion. Factor in lower rents and higher costs, this may translate into “property value destruction” in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
In addition to remote working trends, Moody’s analysts pointed out that the amount of office space per worker has been in a “general downward trend for decades.”
At the peak of the Dot-Com boom, office workers used an average of 190 sq ft. The figure has since slid to 155 sq ft in 2023.
“The argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses,” the analysts said, adding, “If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
Related research from the McKinsey Global Institute forecasts that office property values will plummet by $800 billion to $1.3 trillion by the decade’s end.
Moody’s expects vacancy rates to top out as office towers are demolished or converted to residential ones in the coming years.
“Right-sizing will continue over the next decade as the market shakes out less efficient space for flexible floorplans that support our relatively new working habits,” they said.
Earlier this year, Goldman analyst Jan Hatzius pointed out that a further 50% price decline would make office tower conversions financially sensible.
The US middle class and low-wage workers are back on the chain gang while the top 1% party hearty.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.6 percent in April 2024 to 101.8 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.3 percent in March. Over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.9 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.5 percent decline over the previous six months.
It is surprising that Americans trusts the millionaires in the Administration (like Biden) or Congress (like Schumer, McConnell, etc) to have our backs on the roaring inflation rate. At least Speaker Mike Johnson isn’t a millionaire … yet. But that might explain his selling out conservatives.
Housing in the US is simply unaffordable, particularly after HUD levied new regulation rising the cost of new housing up to $31,000. Wait for this to kick into the data for mortgage demand!
Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 26, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was14 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
MBS returns are weak and volatile.
How is the Biden Regime making homeownership more affordable? They aren’t. The are using regulations, to drive the cost of new housing way up. New HUD energy rules will raise the cost of home construction by imposing stricter building codes. The National Association of Home Builders says the energy rules can add as much as $31,000 to the price of a new home. Payback time is 90 years (how long it will take the recoup the initial investment).
Under Biden’s “leadership” we are all addicted to gov. But at least Ukraine and Zelenskyy will be getting a guaranteed 10 years of financial support from the US … while E Palestine Ohio and Maui remain destroyed.
The Green Slime! The global movement towards Green Energy (or global Marxist movement) is really The Green Slime! Or maybe it should be renamed “The Red Slime.”
And then we have Hertz dumping its inventory of EVs. A slew of used Teslas have hit the Hertz car sales website after the company announced Thursday it planned to sell off 10,000 more electric vehicles from its fleet than originally planned, bringing the fire sale’s total to 30,000. Perhaps one of the reasons you can get such a good deal on a Tesla at Hertz right now is that the outlook for EV value retention is pretty grim at the moment.
Given the incidents of electric cars catching fire, perhaps saying its a fire sales is a bad choice of words. But what it says is that DESPITE massive incentives to buy EVs, consumer demand stinks. Although Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will claim the market is booming.
How bad is the trainwreck that is the Biden Regime? China is bailing on US Treasuries.
The Biden Regime is hereafter known as The Green Slime, given their horrible policies. Unfortunately, The Green Slime is here already … and Hertz knows customers don’t want them at least on a temporary basis.
Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 19, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent compared with the previous week and was15 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 7.24 percent from 7.13 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Gold futures prices are soaring and are at $2,422.00. Gold futures prices are up 19.61% over the past year.
Silver futures prices are also soaring and are at $29.64. Silver futures prices are up 16.40% over the past year.
Bitcoin is almost at $70,000 and is up 133.44% over the past year.
Returning to gold, we are seeing another gold breakout, like the breakout in 2008.
Even central banks are loading up on gold, silver, and cryptos. Why? Primarily fear of US reckless budgets and exploding debts/deficits (don’t listen to Biden talk about how “he” reduced deficits and debt (both have risen to dangerous levels under he inattentive eyes).
However, calming the jangled nerves of pension funds is that the S&P 500 stock market index is up 26.04% over the past year.
Overall prices are up by 19.4% since Biden took office.
Of course, the S&P 500 is not sustainable given that it has been driven by excessive spending by the Biden Adminstration coupled with still massive monetary stimulus from The Federal Reserve.
In summary, gold, silver and cryptos are rising on FEAR! Of Biden, Congress and The Fed.
One reason that America’s youth is disgusted with Bidenomics is skyrocketing prices, particulalry housing. (simply unaffordable). Thanks to awful economic policies, home prices are up 32.5% under Biden and 30-year mortgage rates are up a whopping 160%! Good luck buying a home with a part-time job.
The bad news is that the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.53%, the highest since November 2023. This means that mortgage rates will rise even further.
Yes, rising rates AND home prices are daunting to part-time job holders.
The rising supply of office space is due to a combination of surging remote and hybrid work that forces companies to reduce corporate footprints. Also, companies are exiting imploding progressive cities and high-taxed blue states for red ones while downsizing space. In the report, office tower vacancies rose to a record 19.8%, up from 19.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Even with the increase, there is an eerily calm across the commercial real estate sector. This comes as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle is higher for longer, indicating that the pain train is nearing (perhaps after the presidential election).
“The office stress isn’t quite done yet,” Thomas LaSalvia, Moody’s head of commercial real estate economics and one of the authors of the report, told Bloomberg in an interview. He noted recent positive economic indicators stave off a “perfect storm in the office sector.”
“There are spots of light and there are spots of extreme darkness,” LaSalvia said, adding, “This is part of a longer-term evolution where we are seeing obsolete buildings in obsolete neighborhoods.”
The high office vacancy rate continues to be terrible news for landlords and developers eager to fill their buildings, and the Fed’s hiking cycle has made refinancing very challenging.
Viswanathan said there have been no major fireworks in CRE tower debt because the debt is being “extended and modified rather than refinanced,” which “mitigates a default wave and a sharp pick-up in losses on CRE loan portfolios.”
Yes, both residential and commercial real estate are thunderstruck under Bidenomics.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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