Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
Ah, that wonderful economy O’Biden talks about. It is actually shrinking.
The ISM Manufacturing index screams stagflation, as it continues to contract. With “reigniting inflationary pressures.
And prices are beginning to take off again.
Thanks to O’Biden (Obama/Biden) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s failure to negotiate a debt ceiling increase, the US has officially become a banana republic. Crazy government, lawless censoring and arrest of opposing political candidates.
The US CDS 1Y SR Eur just hit a staggering 176.53. That is the price of insuring against a debt default by O’Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Is a US debt default likely? It shouldn’t be. But you never know with the circus clowns in the White House and nasty Chuck Schumer. But arresting the leading Republican Presidential candidate before the elections is pure Chavez/Maduro Banana Republic politics.
2 year Treasury yield up over 11 basis points today.
March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Core Prices remain HOT despite The Fed crashing M2 Money growth. PCE Core price growth remained elevated at 4.6%.
Personal spending in March slowed to 0% growth.
The Taylor Rule infers a Fed Funds target rate of 10.27% Alas, we will never get there.
So much for the hopium spread by the Biden Administration and Realtors in general.
US Pending Home Sales crashed -23.3% YoY and -5.2% MoM for the 16th straight month of negative growth in pending home sales.
Wasting again in Bidenville, looking for my lost economy. Biden says Maga Republicans are to blame, but we know its Biden’s and Congress’s fault.
Crooner Peggy Lee said it best: Is that all there is?
Unfortunately, US GDP grew at a pathetic 1.1% QoQ.
Official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show that, since January 2021, legislation signed by President Biden has set in motion a record $3.37 trillion in new spending. And for all that spending, we get a pathetic 1.1% QoQ growth rate?
Inflation continues to be 4% QoQ despite M2 Money growth collapsing.
Gross private domestic investment crashed by -12.5% QoQ.
This is Biden’s idea of a strong economy? His lame campaign slogan is “Let’s finish the job!” Please don’t Joe!
And take Janet “The Evil Hobbit” with you!
Wasting away again in Bidenville. Nibblin’ on ice cream. Watching the economy boil. Particularly mortgage demand.
Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 21, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 28 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The US economy is slippin’ into darkness.
The Philly Fed NBOS General Business Activity Region Diffusion Index SA crashed to -22.8 in April.
And today’s Fed Funds Futures data points to a return of The Bernanke/Yellen “Low Rider” policy for rate management.
Why can’t the corporate media, AOC and Tucker Carlson be friends?
The US housing market is experiencing a slowdown as The Fed withdraws it outragous monetary stimlus.
The Case-Shiller 20 metro house price index grew at a rate of 036% year-over-year (YoY) in February.
Drifting into darkness, we have the West getting battered with my old hometown of San Francisco leading the pack at -10% YoY with Seattle down -9.3% YoY.
You know things are bad out west when Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago are gaining ground in prices. And Miami was up 10.8% YoY.
In the garden of Biden, not all is well for housing and the mortgage market.
It has been a tough road for the US economy since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Error. For the first time since July 2020 under President Trump, we have finally seen average hourly earnings growth YoY exceed average home price growth YoY.
In REAL terms (after substracting out headline inflation), we see that US housing market is still plagued by 24 straight months of negative wage growth with REAL wage growth still being lower than REAL home price growth.
Then we have Biden’s Marxist mortgage model, making those who who saved and showed care in managing their credit score given money to those who didn’t save and are terrible at financial management. Just like taxpayers trusting DC bureaucrats to carefully spend their money.
Biden’s new theme? “Let’s go crazy!”
This is life under Joe Biden. Record sovereign risk, record high debt, near 40-year highs in inflation, a hot war in Ukraine with Russia, failure of DOJ/FBI to do anything about the content of Hunter Biden’s laptop, repression of free speech, soaring crime, out of control borders. Should I keep going? It is a disastrous mess created by Obama/Biden and their creepy allies.
US sovereign risk just hit 130, the highest since CDS was recorded. This alligns with Biden/Congress massive borrow and spend policies where Federal debt has soared to it highest level in history. Inflation, while cooling, remains high.
On the housing front, REAL national home price growth is negative which makes sense since REAL average hourly wage growth has been negative for the last 24 months.
And just over the past year, commericial bank deposits are falling like a paralyzed falcon.
Biden and Obama’s chief hack in the White House, Susan Rice, are burning down the house.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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