Going Down! NAHB Homebuilder Market Index Plunges To Covid-lows Of 31 As Fed Tightens

Ain’t this a kick in the … head.

Rising mortgage rates courtesy of The Federal Reserve’s tightening to fight Bidenflation has led to a Covid-level plunge in the NAHB Homebuilder Market Index.

Everything seems to be going down with a sinking M2 Money growth.

And today, the 10-year US Treasury yield is up over 10 bps. Watch out mortgage rates!

Fed’s Highest Rates In 15 Years To Fight Bidenflation Are Derailing the American Dream (Mortgage Rates Near High Since 2001, Home Costs Double)

The highest interest rates in 15 years are delaying home dreams, putting business plans on ice and forcing many Americans to agree to loan terms that would have been unimaginable just nine months ago. Biden’s anti-fossil fuel policies are helping drive up prices and The Federal Reserve is hiking rates to cool it off.

Most of all, the surge in borrowing costs is punishing the cash-poor. And it’s about to get worse as the Federal Reserve carries on with its anti-inflation campaign and keeps hiking rates next year.

As the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hike cycle in a generation filters through the US economy, the gap is widening between the haves and the have-nots. Even without a recession, households and businesses are feeling the financial pain.

Here’s a look at pockets of the economy that are bearing the brunt of the impact.

Housing in Holding Pattern


Manda Waits from Suwanee, Georgia, feels lucky that she and her husband bought their townhouse near Atlanta a year ago with a 3% loan — less than half of where mortgage rates are now. 

To trim expenses amid soaring consumer prices, the couple recently bought a freezer and stocked it with a quarter cow and half a pig sourced from an agricultural school. But they shelved their plan to upgrade to a single-family home for the time being.

“We would like to buy some land to build on, but these rates aren’t making it attractive, so we are in a holding pattern,” said Waits, who receives disability benefits.

Even in the once red-hot market of Tampa, Florida, a few people showing up at an open house is now considered a good day. “People are just waiting on the sidelines,” said Rae Anna Conforti, a realtor with Re/Max Alliance Group.

As mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2001 this year, real estate agents suddenly found themselves hunting for clients again — if not losing their jobs. Thousands of mortgage employees have already been laid off at lenders including Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The higher rates, coupled with a surge in home values during the pandemic, pushed the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced house to more than $2,000, up from about $1,100 just before Covid-19 hit.


‘Vicious Circle’
The widening gap between the cash-rich and the cash-strapped is playing out at car dealerships across the nation. The former are paying more upfront, while the latter are stuck with high-rate auto loans that will leave them underwater — or forced to settle for cheaper and less reliable vehicles.

Almost one in three car buyers are now taking out six- to seven-year loans on used vehicles to help lower monthly payments.

When consumers are locked for so long, the outstanding balance quickly exceeds a used car’s value, said Oren Weintraub, whose California-based service helps consumers negotiate better prices with dealers for a fee. When they buy their next car, that balance will get tacked onto to the new loan.

“It’s a vicious cycle,” he said.


Matt Tambornini was hoping to take out a car loan to build his credit history. The 22-year-old, who lives near Knoxville, Tennessee, with his parents, figured he’d be in a position to buy a house when mortgage rates eventually come down.

His plan stumbled when a local car dealership offered a 23% loan rate and a 60-month term, a deal that would’ve had him paying thousands more than he wanted. He bought the car anyway, quickly got buyer’s remorse and returned it for a refund.

For now, he’s driving a 15-year-old pick-up he bought with cash.

“It seems like everything is just unaffordable,” Tambornini said.


Soaring Credit Debt 
Interest rates on credit cards that averaged 16.3% at the beginning of the year have climbed to just over 19%, according to Bankrate.com, the highest level in data going back to 1985.

That’s a massive increase especially for lower-income consumers, who may be making the minimum payment and carrying a balance for 20 years, said Scott Sanborn, chief executive officer of LendingClub Corp. 

“I don’t think consumers have fully internalized yet how much their cost of living has actually increased,” Sanborn said.

The  surge in APRs to historical highs isn’t affecting consumers the same way. It makes no difference to those who pay off their balances monthly — many don’t even notice the rate increases — but it’s hitting those who are falling behind.

Mike Lauretti, 24, has about $12,000 in debt on four cards, as well as car, student and private debt. The high school social worker, who lives near Hartford, Connecticut, is working on paying off the card with the smallest amount first before moving to the next — known as the snowball method. He also took an extra job as a coach of the girls basketball team to supplement his income.

“I am using the snowball method to pay off the cards first and then it’ll eventually lead to me paying the private loan,” the largest, he said.

American consumers will end the year with about $110 billion more in credit-card debt than they started with, which would be close to an annual record, according to WalletHub, an online personal finance data firm.
The reality may hit next year, when many economists predict the US will enter a recession. Household debt delinquencies are still well below their end of 2019 levels, but they’re picking up.

“We expect delinquencies to continue to increase, with new credit-card and auto delinquencies reaching pre-pandemic levels in the first half of next year,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.

Small Businesses


In Dayton, Ohio, Clara Osterhage would love to add to her 82 Great Clips hair salons and she knows people who are looking to sell. 

“But I can’t put myself in a place to buy them, because the interest rates on any money that we would borrow would be astronomical,” she said.

Matt Haller, chief executive of the International Franchise Association, said high loan rates will keep smaller buyers of franchises out of the market, while bigger companies with more access to capital consolidate.

Meantime, some would-be buyers are demanding that sellers help finance the deal, said Dustin Zeher of Horizon Business Brokers in Virginia.

“We’re talking about 50% to 80% of the transaction, because they are cognizant and aware of the rising interest rates and how that has effectively reduced their buying power and has increased the cost of the transaction,” Zeher said.

Greg Vojnovic, owner of a small fast-food chain in the Youngstown, Ohio area, said the debt service — or debt payments — on his Small Business Administration loan has risen by $70,000 annually, and he expects it to climb at least another $15,000 as the Fed continues to raise rates. He’ll have to cut two part-time corporate-office positions to lower costs. 

“If bacon goes up, people understand if you raise prices,” said Vojnovic, owner of the Hot Dog Shoppe. “If chicken goes up, people understand that. If debt service goes up, you just kind of have to eat that.”

Here is Joe Biden, shooting the hopes of millions of Americans in the tuchus.

US Real GDP Growth Forecast To Be Dismal 0.50% In 2023, Personal Savings Rate -67.9% YoY In October, US Mortgage Rates Headed Down (Economic Lights On But Nobody’s Home)

Albert Collins said it best about the US economy under Joe Biden: “Lights Are On But Nobody’s Home”.

The Federal Reserve forecast for the US economy is a dismal 0.50% YoY. Do I detect a trend?

The FOMC forecast for 2023 and 2024. Core PCE YoY (inflation) is forecast to drop to 3.50%, still considerably higher than The Fed’s target rate of inflation of 2%. And unemployment is forecast to be 4.60%.

To cope with Bidenflation, US personal savings rate as of October is -67.9% YoY. The “good” news is that rents YoY are crashing. But food prices under Inflation Joe remain very high. But most everything is slowing down, not due to Biden’s policies, but a global and US economic slowdown.

With a big slowdown coming our way, you can understand why The Fed’s December Dot Plot is showing declining Fed Funds Target rate starts declining in 2024.

Even US mortgage rates are headed down.

Speaking of going down, cryptos are down across the board with Cardano leading the decline at -6.91%.

All aboard the SS Biden!

California Screamin’! 2022 Home Prices Crashed Mostly In California As Fed Withdraws Monetary Stimulus (Austin TX And Seattle WA Also Crashed Hard)

California Screamin’!

6 of the top 8 metro areas with the largest home price crash in 2022 were in California, according to Redfin.

Sadly, I lived in three of these metro areas (Austin TX, San Jose CA and Phoenix AZ), although I wouldn’t confuse correlation with causation.

The trend for home price growth (blue line) is definitely on the downturn as The Fed removes its ample stimulus (green line).

Here is California governor Gavin (Nancy Pelosi’s nephew) Newsome screaming about crashing California home prices.

Fed Surprises No One With 50 Basis Point Rate Hike, Highest Since November 2007 (New Fed Dots Plot Looks Like Lillehammer Ski Jump)

As expected, The Federal Reserve raised their target rate by 50 basis points to 4.50%, the highest Fed target rate since November 2007.

The only thing interesting that happened was Powell’s hawkish statements about The Fed wanting to keep tightening to fight inflation caused under “Inflation Joe” Biden.

But the NEW Fed Dots plot looks like an Olympic Ski jump with expectations of DECLINING Fed target rates.

My take on the steeply downward sloping Dot Plot is a tacit acknowledgement that a recession is headed our way in 2023.

Here is the Lillehammer Olympic ski jump that resembles today’s Fed Dots Plot.

Gone In 60 Seconds? Treasuries And Stock Futures Trading Spike 60 Seconds BEFORE CPI Data Release (Who Tipped The Wink?)

Apparently, despite the denials from the Biden Administration, someone at Bureau of Labor Statistics or someone in Congress or the Federal Reserve or the Biden Admininstration itself likely tipped the wink on the soft CPI report on Tuesday.

Treasuries were well on the front-foot in the lead up to the below-estimate November CPO print, as a surge of buying took place seconds before the official 8:30 am New York release time. Over a 60 second period before the data, 13,518 March 10-year futures traded as the contract moved from 114-04+ up to 114-22. Gains were then extended up to 115-11 session highs once the data was released.

On the equity side, stock futures suddenly spiked more than 1%. Trading in Treasury futures surged, pushing benchmark yields lower by about 4 basis points. Those are major moves in such a short period of time — bigger than full-session swings on some days. And they should get scrutinized by regulators, long-time market observers say, even if a leak is only one of several possible explanations for why traders suddenly started buying right before the report was published. 

Remember that current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was accused of leaking information to a NY hedge fund ahead of the Fed Open Market Committee meeting? And then we have the Wolf of Wall Street.

I wonder if the REAL Wolf of Wall Street did this?

Pre-Fed Status: 100% Probability Of US Recession In 2023, Mortgage Rate Steady (US Yield Curve Now Inverted For 116 Straight Days, Implied Rate Hike Of +50 BPS To 4.50%)

Fun week ahead. US inflation numbers are out on Tuesday (forecast? CPI YoY = 7.3%, Core CPI YoY = 6.1%) and The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision is on Wendesday.

So, where are we sitting on Monday?

First, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve has been inverted (a precursor to recession) for 116 straight days). Second, the likelihood of recession in 2023 is 100%. Third, with the forecast of core inflation at a still numbing 6.1%, The Fed seems dead set on raising their target rate by 50 basis points to 4.50% on Wednesday.

dddd

So, as The Fed debates recession versus fighting inflation (partly caused by The Fed), we have Kevin Malone from The Office debating Angela versus double-fudge brownies:

“I hear Angela’s party will have double fudge brownies. But it will also have Angela. Double fudge.. Angela.. double fudge….. Angela. Hmm..” I am betting on risking a recession by raising the Fed’s target rate by 50 basis points.

Blackrock’s Dire Forecast For 2023 And FAANG’s Loss Of >$3 Trillion In 2023 (M2 Money Velocity Near Lowest In History, US Yield Curve STILL Inverted)

Blackrock has a grim presentation on investing in 2023. Particularly with regards to The Federal Reserve and their ability to stave-off a recession (comin’ at you!).

Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. They are deliberately causing recessions by overtightening policy to try to rein in inflation. That makes recession foretold. We see central banks eventually backing off from rate hikes as the economic damage becomes reality. We expect inflation to cool but stay persistently higher than central bank targets of 2%.

For some investors, this year’s rout in high-flying technology stocks is more than a bear market: It’s the end of an era for a handful of giant companies such as Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.

Those companies — known along with Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. as the FAANGs — led the move to a digital world and helped power a 13-year bull run. And FAANG drawdown have reached over $3 trillion.

FAANGs (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Netflix) are getting clobbered in 2022.

Typically, when The Fed prints too much money, such as 10% or higher (red line), inflation follows. Particularly when The Fed prints at 25% YoY in Q4 2020, it was followed by the highest inflation rate in 40 years. But if M2 Money continues to slow, inflation will likely slow, but not to The Fed’s target of 2%.

Despite what Minneapolis Fed’s Neal Kashkari said about The Fed having infinite printing resourses, The Fed is going to fight inflation THAT THEY HELPED CAUSE. Biden’s energy policies (did you see that Elon Musk has a car that uses plentiful hydrogen?), and excessive Federal spending by Biden/Pelosi/Schumer, are culprits in creating the supply chain problems facing America. BUT after the 25% surge in M2 Money in 2020 and 2021, we saw M2 Money VELOCITY crash and burn to its lowest level in history. Which means the “bang for the buck” for printing more money is negligible.

Of course, big tech firms got caught influencing the 2020 Presidential election (see Musk’s release of Twitter files) and engaged in restriction of the 1st Amendment (Freedom of Speech). How much will that impact FAANG stocks going foward?

And yes, the US Treasury yield curve is inverted pointing to a recession in 2023.

And yes, apparently Biden was complicit in the Twitter fiasco.

Shotgun Joe! Shooting down freedom of speech.

The Last Time (For Fed Hikes Rates)? Fed Forecasts SLOW Growth 1.2% YoY In 2023 As CMBS Are Getting Hit (Investors Worry About Credit Risk As Economy Weakens)

This will be the last time (Fed rate hikes) as the US economy is forecast to either go into a recession in 2023 or slow down to an anemic 1.20% Real GDP YoY. Even the Fed is forecasting 3.10% core inflation in 2023, still higher than their target rate of 2%.

One of the sectors that is suffering is commercial real estate.

Commercial mortgage bonds could get clobbered in the coming months, and investors are backing away from the securities. 

Some $34 billion of the bonds come due in 2023, and refinancing property loans is difficult now. Property prices could fall 10% to 15% next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists. And some types of properties seem particularly vulnerable as, for example, city workers are slow to come back to their offices full time. 

That may be why spreads on BBB commercial mortgage bonds have widened by about 2.7 percentage points this year through Thursday to around 6.6%, for the securities without government backing. They are now at their widest since January 2021. They’ve been getting hit particularly hard in the last few months, even as risk premiums on investment-grade and high-yield corporates have been shrinking on hopes the Federal Reserve will scale back its tightening campaign.  

“For CMBS investors, there’s lots of uncertainty, especially around whether maturing loans are going to get refinanced or not, and if not, what the resolution will be,” said David Goodson, head of securitized credit at Voya Investment Management, in an interview. “Layering in risk from lower office utilization makes the assessment even tougher.”

The trouble that the bonds face won’t necessarily translate to a surge in defaults in the near term, which is part of why betting against them is so difficult. When property owners can’t refinance mortgages that have been bundled into bonds, noteholders have a difficult choice to make. They can seize the buildings and liquidate them, or they can extend the debt and accept repayment later. They usually go for the second option. 

Extending maturities allows bondholders to kick the can down the road and potentially recover more later, said Stav Gaon, head of securitized products research at Academy Securities. The question is whether properties have permanently lost value as, for example, people reorder their lives after the pandemic, or whether declines may be more temporary because of higher rates. 

“Foreclosing on a loan, rather than granting an extension, can be really messy — that’s a lesson that was learned during the great financial crisis,” said Gaon. “The lenders also recognize that today’s higher interest rates are a very sudden development that many high-quality borrowers need time to adjust to.” 

Some investors that are still buying are focusing on higher-quality borrowers and properties, that are likelier to withstand any downturn in real estate prices without having to seek extensions on loans. 

“We think trophy properties will fare better due to better access to the debt markets, lower potential property declines, and a continued tenant flight to quality,” said Zach Winters, senior credit analyst at USAA Investments.

He acknowledges that this strategy isn’t always popular now, even if it turns out to make sense. 

“When we go out and bid on a bond tied to a trophy office building now, usually the number of buyers is significantly less than before,” Winters said.

After the Pandemic

The market for commercial mortgage bonds without government backing was about $670 billion as of the end of 2021, and although the securities soared in the second half of 2020 as the Fed opened the money spigots, they’re facing more difficulty now. With office occupancy still below 50% in many cities as more people work from home, corporate buildings may see their values drop. Retail space is similarly under pressure as consumers have grown used to buying more online. And while travel volume is rising, many hotels are struggling to reach 2019 levels for room charges.  

A survey of institutional real estate market professionals in November found that firms expect office values to fall about 10% next year, and overall commercial property declines of 5%, according to the Pension Real Estate Association.    

The $34 billion of bonds due next year includes mostly fixed-rate CMBS bonds sold without government backing. It’s a steep increase from the $24.4 billion of such bonds maturing this year, according to Academy Securities. 

There’s another $103 billion of a type of CMBS known as single-asset single-borrower bonds maturing next year, according to Academy — although most of that debt pile has a built-in contractual ability to extend loans, meaning they’ll be able to seek extensions more easily. 

Next year won’t be the first time that CMBS bondholders and servicers have faced tough choices about whether to allow en masse extensions to the underlying borrowers. After the 2008 financial crisis, commercial property values plummeted and many lenders chose to give owners of those properties more time to pay back their loans. As a result they ended up getting more money back than if they’d immediately foreclosed on the loans and liquidated the properties, said Jeff Berenbaum, head of CMBS and agency CMBS strategy at Citigroup.  

In terms of watchlisted CMBS loans, currently most of the USA is in the green (good) except for San Francisco, New Orleans, Memphis and Chicago all have elevated commercial loans on the watchlist (loans being watched for going late and into default). Puerto Rico is also in the red (>25%) watchlisted commercial loans, so I expect AOC to be asking for a bailout.

On the office property front, we can see red (>25% of commercial loans watchlisted) pretty much across the board.

The leading metro area in terms of watchlisted office property loans is … Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC at 66.49% (that is pretty bad). Providence RI is second and San Juan Puerto Rico is third followed by Charlotte NC in fourth place. The only Ohio city in top 15 is Cincinnati, home of Skyline Chili and Montgomery Inn.

While most are calling for more rate hikes in 2023, I predicted that December’s likely 50 basis point hike with be the last one for a while as the US economy grinds to a halt. Or it’s all over now for Fed rate hikes.

While The Fed predicts slow growth, markets are pointing to recession. The Fed is out of touch with reality. As is the US Secretarty of Treasury, “Too low for too long” Janet Yellen.

Inflation Gone In November? US Producer Prices Top Estimates At 7.4% YoY, Supporting Fed Hikes Into 2023

Is inflation gone in November? Nope.

US producer prices rose in November by more than forecast, driven by services and underscoring the stickiness of inflationary pressures that supports Federal Reserve interest-rate increases into 2023.

The producer price index for final demand climbed 0.3% for a third month and was up 7.4% from a year earlier, Labor Department data showed Friday. The monthly gains for October and September were revised higher.

At the same time, the annual increase was the smallest in 18 months, extending a months-long easing and suggesting the central bank still has scope to pause its rate hikes next year as expected. Cooler demand at home and abroad has taken some stress off supply chains.

The data come just days before the release of the closely watched consumer price index, which is forecast to show inflation, while much too high, continues to decelerate. 

While PPI is declining, it is still far above The Fed’s inflation rate of 2% (red line).

Watch out for energy prices when the sleeping giant (China) opens up again and demand for energy skyrockets. Meanwhile, Clueless Joe is merrily draining the US Strategic Petroleun Reserve.

Lastly, congratulations to former Cleveland Brown QB Baker Mayfield for winning with the LA Rams against the Las Vegas Raiders with a stunning 99 yard drive for a TD at the end of the game.