So much for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s proclamtion that inflation is transitory and would subside to under 2%. April’s core inflation (PCE Deflator) rose to 4.7% YoY. Despite M2 Money growth crashing to -4.6% YoY.
Today’s Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to another rate hike or two.
With Core PCE at 4.7%, the Taylor Rule suggested Fed Funds Target rate is now 10.57%. So, The Fed is only about half way there.
Damn it, Janet, people are suffering from the ravages of inflation and you laugh.
I have gotten a flood of emails and text messages asking about what happens if Biden defaults on the US debt. In short, Biden has made a career out of spending money, as has Speaker McCarthy. They both have an incentive to raise the debt ceiling, but whether it is cuts to Biden’s insane budget (higher than Covid-era spending) and wants to raise taxes on the middle class to pay for it. McCarthy wants a trimmed budget (aka, back to pre-Covid spending levels) and NOT raises taxes. They will eventually agree somewhere in the middle (US Congress member Pramila Jayapal will be outraged, but then again, she is ALWAYS outraged like Senator Elizabeth Warren) and AOC.
The Federal Reserve has taken a brief respite from fighting inflation that they helped cause. But with $188 TRILLION in unfunded entitlements promised by politicians, The Fed will undoubtedly start buying assets again (aka, QEInfinity) and the debt ceiling will keep being raised. In essence, the DC merry-go-round is broken and politicians will keep pushing it around until it collapses.
For the moment, The Federal Reserve is reducing M2 Money (green line). With it, the US Dollar (blue line) has declined. Gold (white line fever) is on the rise along with The Fed’s effective funds rate.
WTI crude is up over 1% this AM. And gold is up 2.29%. Heating oil is up 3.56%.
Face it, I have no confidence in Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, one of the biggest propronents of MMT (modern monetary theory or borrow and spend without consequences). Yellen is NOT making lose my blues.
The US middle class is wasting away in Bidenville. While Climate Envoy John Kerry threatens to seize farms in the name of … climate change? The moral hazard problems associated with farm seizures boggle the mind.
So, everyone keeps talking about the debt ceiling and the fact that America is about to run out of money. How did we just find $375 million dollars AGAIN to ship on over to Zelenskyy?
Biden and McCarthy met on the debt ceiling and nothing has been resolved. They both represent the BIG donor class and big Pharma, big defense, big tech, big media, big tech, anything that is big runs Congress and the Administration. So of course they will finally agree to raise the debt ceiling and continue their insane spending on the donor class.
As of right now, there is no deal to raise the debt limit. Biden wants to raise the already insane and irresponsible Federal budget. McCarthy wants no new taxes. Who will cave in this game of chicken? My guess is that McCarthy will cave. Biden may whip out the 14th Amendment to bypass McCarthy and Congress, but this makes Biden a dictator (which would suit him fine, but would be a horrible precedent).
Core Inflation Rate UP 244% under Biden, Food UP 46%, Gasoline Prices UP 60%, Rental Growth UP 268%. What a disaster under Biden’s Reign of Error.
But at least the Biden family are getting wealthy beyond comprehension. Isn’t that Ashley Biden in the blue?
Like the famous novel “All Quiet on the Western Front,” its “All Quiet on the Default Front” as China Joe and Speaker McCarthy are set to meet again. In short, Biden wants to raise taxs on middle class and McCarthy wants to return Federal spending to pre-Covid levels. Sure, Biden throws around the Bernie Sanders’s tax on millionaires and billionaires line, but they know that M&Bs have professional accounts and lawyers to protect them while the middle class has Turbo Tax and H&R Block.
In any case, markets are calm (the calm before the storm?) although I think Biden WANTS to default and blame Republicans ahead of Biden’s reelection. The media will mindlessly repeat DNC talking points. So Biden is covered. After all, he says it isn’t his fault (although it is 100% Biden’s fault if America defaults because of his reckless budget and insane ramblings).
Let’s look at regional banks and the US Treasury SHORT curve: 2Y-3M. Notice that regional bank stocks have gotten demolished as The Fed tightens.
Its May 21st and Biden still refuses to budge on paring back his massively bloated budget of green energy payoffs. Yet Biden laughingly stated it isn’t his fault if the US defaults on its debt. It is absolutely 100% Biden’s fault and he should be impeached if he fails to meet Republicans half way.
(Bloomberg) Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US is unlikely to reach mid-June and still be able to pay its bills, underscoring the urgency of the White House reaching a deal with Republicans to raise the debt limit.
“Well, there’s always uncertainty about tax receipts and spending,” Yellen said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “And so it’s hard to be absolutely certain about this, but my assessment is that the odds of reaching June 15 while being able to pay all of our bills is quite low.”
Biden and McCarthy have been at an impasse since January over raising the government’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. The Treasury has been deploying special accounting measures since January to stay within the statutory ceiling.
“On June 15, there are tax payments that are made that are substantial,” Yellen told NBC. “But early June, I interpret as before that, and it would be very difficult to get to that date.”
This is coming from the former Federal Reserve Chair who raised interest rates once while Obama was President, then raises rates 8 time after Trump won the election.
Surprisingly, cryptos are down today despite Biden’s incompetence and Yellen’s dire warning. Atleast TRON is up!
Yes, Yellen is the same person who raised interest rates just once under Obama, then 8 times after Trump was elected. And Yellen is the same person who said inflation was transitory, yet remains elevated. Yellen is truly The Deep State’s fuiancial manager.
But that is where we are in the US. A President who acts like a spoiled 12 year old bully, members of Congress like Cori Bush and AOC who think The Fed can just print trillions MORE and give it to preferred groups. Senator Diane Feinstein (soon to be replaced by a horrible human being in the person of Adam Schiff). John Fetterman, the next Bernie Sanders?? C’mon DC. A true ship of fools. And dangerous ones at that.
So since September 26, 2022, we have seen a fundametal shift in markets. The US Dollar is down -21% since September 26, 2022 while Bitcoin is up 41%, Gold is up 21% and Silver is up 28%.
Biden is sitting pretty, If McCarthy chickens out and agrees to Biden’s outrageous budget, Biden looks like a hero. If Biden defaults, the MSM media will blame McCarthy and Republicans, so Biden wins. No wonder Biden said he isn’t worried about the debt ceiling negotations. He wins no matter what, And we the 99% get screwed.
In the crazy world of Cryptocurrencies, two “coins” stand out: the venerable Bitcoin and Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer’s Dogecoin (aka Dog Coin based on a Shiba Inu dog.
After a jolt of popularity, likely related to Elon Musk’s tweets, dogecoin has dropped -46.5% since November 1, 2022 while Bitcoin has gained 34% over the same period.
In the highly volatile world of cryptos, XRP is today’s leader at +4.81%. Today’s biggest loser is Polygon at -2.31%. Dogecoin is down almost -1% while Bitcoin is up slightly.
With Washington DC completely out of control (see the Durham report on the attempted coup by Hillary Clinton, Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, etc., the FBI. CIA and the rest of the Deep State), don’t be surprised if dim bulbs like Liz Warren and AOC try to make alternatives to the US Dollar illegal.
Speaking of DC being out of control, the CDS for the US rose again on the failure of Biden/Yellen/Schumer to agree on a sensible Federal budget.
The Federal government in Washington DC is broken beyond repair. Politicians get elected by promising free or cheap things, so they keep delivering the bacon. Or pork to political donors. The top 1% get massive payoffs (like green energy subsidies or bank bailouts), the bottom 99% get out of control entitlements like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And other unsustainable entitlements. In fact, student loans are now an entitlement since some voters will vote for the corrupt politician (no, Joe Biden isn’t the only corrupt politician in Washington DC) who will forgive their student loans.
In fact, we now have $187 TRILLION in UNFUNDED liabilities that were promised to the 99%. The 1% will always get their political contributions paid. Biden and Schumer have promised their donor class trillions in spending, so that are threatening to let the US debt default to protect the 1%.
And unfunded entitlements are expected to soar, particularly Medicare.
Mandatory spending is expected to soar while discretionary spending is almost flat in terms of growth.
Meanwile, the US credit default swap remains elevated as the US Treasury short curve (2Y-3M) is near the most inverted in history.
And this headline, “Biden Not Ready Yet to Invoke 14th Amendment to Avoid US Default”. That means Biden would adopt extraordinary powers to prevent a debt default. Hence, the idiocy like the trillion dollar coin.
Nobel Laureate and Statist useful idiot Paul Krugman wants to keep spending trillions. As a result, he argues “Don’t worry about the declining US dollar hegemony … as long as the US doesn’t default.” Translation: Krugman agrees with Dementia Joe that Republicans should just pass Biden’s budget with no strings attached. C’mon Krugman. The growth of BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and growing) is partly due to 1) perceived weakness of Senile Grandpa Joe and 2) the fiscal spending and debt growth in Washington DC. Of course it matters, but Krugman wants to keep spending on green lunacy and entitlements until we break the back of the country. Sounds like Krugman is on board with Cloward-Piven.
They can’t cut promised entitlements. Look at France where Macron raised the retirement age by 2 years and there are endless riots. So debt default is the only option, though painful.
Will Congress and future administrations stop prominsing endless spending that benefits the 1%? Not likely. Our political system is hopelessly broken.
I am sure that China’s Communist Party has sent Dementia Joe a message “We own you! You better not default on what you owe us!!” Or default so we can own you financially.
Three of the four horsemen of the financial apocalypse. Yellen is the fourth horseman, but is too short to appear in the picture.
Yes, the banking system under green zealots and spendiholics Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have helped drive inflation to 40 years highs leading The Fed to counterattack and raise interest rates and slow M2 Money supply.
This is last data dump for mortgage demand (applications) before Biden’s idiotic woke mortgage policies go into effect (taxing those with good credit to subsidize those with lousy credit) take effect. I call this Bolshevik Biden’s Mortgage Market.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 28, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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