Slippin’ Into Darkness? ISM Manufacturing PMI Crashes To Recessionary Levels As Bank Credit Growth Stalls (Fed Returning To Low Rate Policies)

I read over the weekend that the Biden Administration was planning to unleash its army of social influencers on us to hype Biden’s economic accomplishments before the Presidential election. I am not one of his preferred social influencers. In fact, the US economy is slippin’ into darkness under Biden.

An example is ISM Manufacturing PMI which has declined to a level typically seen in prior recessions.

And then we have US bank credit growth which just crashed to the slowest growth rate since 2014.

The Fed is returning to rate low-riding as the US economy slips into recession,

Is Biden Actually Captain Crunch? Inflation Drives Fed Tightening = Crashing US Bank Credit YoY (Now Only 2.73%)

Inflation started with Biden’s misguided war on US energy, then Biden/Congress helped inflation with an epic spending splurge. The Federal Reserve counterattacked with Fed rate hikes.

Over the past year, The Fed Funds Effective rate has risen and US bank credit has crashed to 2.73% year-over-year.

Do I detect a trend?

Since 2005, the crash in US bank credit is looking like 2008/2009 all over again.

Whether Biden is Cap’n Crunch or Jerome Powell or Janet Yellen, they are all crunching the US economy.

Never Ending Financial Crisis? US Bank Deposits Were Declining Already When SVB Failed

We have a seemingly never ending financial crisis.

US commercial banks deposits (red line) had been slowly declining even before Silicon Valley Bank failed. Along with Signature Bank and First Republic Bank, not to mention Credit Suisse. And The Teutonic Titanic, Deutshe Bank, is on the ropes. But the failure of SVB saw an acceleration of the decline in commercial bank deposits as banks accelerated borrowing.

But never fear! The Fed will raise rates once or twice more, then drop them again.

“The banks will never behave on my watch as US Treasury Secretary, you have my word!” And don’t worry. Biden will bail them all out … again. Call it “The Biden Bailout Shake!”

Hey Bartender! March Jobs Added 236k, Avg Wage Growth Falls To 4.2% (Too Bad Inflation Is 6%), Low Paying Leisure & Hospitality Leading Jobs Added At 72k

Hey Bartender!

Joe Biden loves to brag about “his” great economic successes, particulary in jobs added. But the jobs added in March were not in higher-paying factory jobs, but Biden’s building from the bottom-up approach is mostly low-paying leisure and hospitality jobs.

And here is the rub on wages. Average hourly earnings growth fell to 4.2% YoY, too bad inflation is 6% and expected to rise with the summer.

236k jobs added in March, down from a revised 326k jobs added in February. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and labor force participation rose slightly to 62.6%.

Construction jobs added were down -9k. Retail jobs were down -14.6k jobs. But leisure and hospitality jobs added were +72k.

Bear in mind that many of the jobs added were simply jobs added back after the catestrophic Covid government shutdowns.

The good news? Labor force participation is slowly recovering from the damage caused by the government shutdown of the economy.

The result? The 2-year Treasury yield is up 14.3 basis points.

Here is Lloyd from the film “The Shining.” A big fan of Biden’s bartender economic recovery.

The Death Of King Dollar: How Biden, The Fed And Congress Are Killing The US Dollar (Down -11% After 9/27/22)

Biden, The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending are killing King Dollar. Countries that used to use the US Dollar as reserve currency are dumping the dollar like a month old burrito.

What countries are dumping the dollar?

A lengthy list of countries are moving away from using the US dollar, which has long been the reserve currency of the world. The following countries are in the process of reducing their dependency on the dollar.

Russia
China
Iran
Brazil
Argentina
Saudi Arabia
UAE
India

The result?

Biden has vacationed 40% of the days he has been President. In his defense, he has probably needed that time to hunt down the classified documents has left strewn around his his home, vacation home, the Penn-Biden Center and Chinatown in DC.

Challenger Job Cuts UP 319% YoY, Highest Ever In Non-Recession OR Are We Actually In A Recession? (Techology And Financial Sectors Lead Job Losses)

The Challenger, Gray and Christmas job cuts report is out for March and it revealed a year-over-year (YoY) increase in US job cuts of 319%. That is the largest increase in job cuts for a non-recession month. In other words, this feels like a recession.

Where were the job cuts in March? Technology got blasted followed by financial.

As The Fed hikes rates, US GDP has declined in growth to 1.469%, despite trillions of dollars of Federal spending by Biden and Congress. What has all the money gone??

Can we get someone to get Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to lose HER job? Silly me, of course not!

Slowing? ADP Jobs Added In March Cools To 145k As Fed Withdraws Punch Bowl (Fed Rate Reversal On Radar)

We are truly addicted to gov! Or at least cheap money from The Federal Reserve.

March’s ADP job report shows the US economy only added 145k jobs as The Fed removes its punch bowl. For the moment.

Its simply irresistable for the government to turn back on the printing press.

And then we have domestic banks reporting stronger demand for C&I Loans and real estate loan (for construction and development purposes) slumping to financial crisis lows.

The US economy is slowing.

Addicted To Gov? US Job Openings Slow As Fed Withdraws Monetary Punch Bowl (But Fed Will Start Cutting Rates Again Shortly)

Talk about an economy that seems dependent on Federal government money printing. The US economy seems hopelessly addicted to gov money printing.

Today, US job openings fell in February to 9,931k. While that is still a large number, look at the chart of job openings and M2 Money printing. There is a one year lag between maximum printing and job openings. But M2 Money growth has collapsed.

Doctor, doctor (Yellen), no pill from The Fed is going to cure the problem of reliance on money printing.

The Fed has printed like a deranged predator since 2008, yet housing inventory for sale keeps plunging.

Money printing is simply irresistable to The Fed. Hence, The Fed will start cutting rates … again.

Recesion Alert? ISM Manufacturing New Orders Sinks To 44.3 In March (Lower Than During Trump) As Count Powellula Sucks Blood From Economy

Not only did the ISM Manfacturimng Report on New Business Order fall to 44.3, but price PAID also fell as The Fed hikes rates (yellow line) and slowing M2 Money growth (green line).

Office REITs are really hurting as Count Powellula sucks the blood (liquidity) from the market.

Count Powellula. “I vant to suck the blood from your economy.”

Faith? Foreign Central Banks Bailing On US Treasuries (Japan And China Among Others Are Fleeing The US Titanic)

Apparently, foreign Central Banks have lost faith in Biden and The Federal Reserve. Foreign Central Banks are selling US Treasuries.

Other than The Fed, Japan and China are the two largest holders of US Treasuries. And they are bailing.

Wake Biden up before all the Central Banks go-go.