Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
The Federal Reserve’s overnight repo facility where banks park their money is seemingly becoming permanent.
As inflation has soared near the highest in 40 years, banks are increasingly parking their money at The Federal Reserve.
To quote Joe Biden, “All is well in the garden.” But apparently, not is all well in the banking industry or with the mortgage industry.
It is amazing that Biden is rising in the polls, simply because he got several inflation-generating, crony pay-off bills passed through a Democrat-controlled Congress. Even more amazing is that Americans aren’t more furious with Biden given that inflation is still raging at 8.5% YoY and the US Personal Savings Rate to cope with raging prices is at -51.5% YoY.
It looks like one quick fix to the inflation problem is for The Federal Reserve to shrink its balance sheet. But they are taking their own sweet time doing it.
And then we have the S&P 500 index which has done poorly since Powell and The Fed have undertaken their “fight inflation” mantra caused by their own folly and Biden’s green, anti-fossil fuel policies. Not to mention Congress spending like drunken sailors in port.
But the same is going on in Europe where inflation is even higher than in the USA and the EUR/USD is plunging like a paralyzed falcon.
And then we have Biden shrinking the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (orange line).
And in Europe, we have Germany suffering through a horrible energy price spike.
Finally, here is a baseball card of former Dodger pitcher Billy Loes. He almost reminds me of Biden trying to think through a complex problem like student loan debt forgiveness that may cost taxpayers an average of $2,000 yet buy votes for Democrats at the midyear elections.
‘‘We will keep at it until we are confident the job (i.e. killing inflation) is done.’’
Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole speech
Interviewer : What’s your prediction for the market?
Clubber Lang (Mr T) : My prediction?
Interviewer : Yes, your prediction.
Clubber Lang : Pain!
Of course, Friday was one of those “Black Fridays” for investors. And pension funds.
The Dow Jone Industrial Average fell -1008.38 points after Powell’s “Mr T” remarks on pain. That was a whopping -3%. The NASDAQ composite index fell almost -4%.
Equity markets struggled in Europe as well, particularly the German DAX index.
The UMich Buying conditions for houses rose slightly, but remains near the lowest level since 1982.
Clubber Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman.
The Case-Shiller house price numbers are due out Tuesday for June and it is expected that they will show a significant slowing in home prices. Biden and Clubber Powell could then take “credit” for slowing “inflation.”
University of Chicago economist and Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler says he doesn’t see anything that resembles a recession in the U.S.
It used to be that economists would see two consecutive quarters of negative Real GDP growth and say “recession.” But apparently not economists like Thaler. But at least the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real GDP tracker is pointing to weak growth for Q3 at 1.379%.
So, if 1.38% real GDP growth holds up, the US is technically no longer in a recession. So, Thaler would be correct. However, the US Treasury yield curve 10Y-2Y (blue line) remains inverted and the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators (yellow line) is growing at 0.0% YoY.
And for those expecting interesting news from The Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, I expect Powell to say that The Fed is going to have to jack-up rates to fight inflation (which is crushing the middle class and low wage workers).
Unlike Thaler, I don’t see a strong economy, just a weak economy except for employment (at negative wage growth). And declining savings.
The elite class “economists” (aka, cheerleaders) are meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week. But while they are planning our future, the revision to the miserable Q2 Real GDP report came out this morning.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.
So, the second pass at measuring Real GDP produced a slightly better number (-0.6% vs -0.9%).
But the GDP PRICE index revision worsened from 8.7% to 8.9%. Look at REAL personal consumption (yellow line) as M2 Money growth slows.
Let’s see how things go at The Fed party at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It is appropriate for The Fed to hold their party/meeting at Jackson Hole (Teton County) since it has the highest concentration of wealth per household than any other county in the nation.
Yee-haw!
The phrase “crossing the Rubicon” is an idiom that means that one is passing a point of no return. Its meaning comes from allusion to the crossing of the river Rubicon by Julius Caesar in early January 49 BC.
Indeed, the US crossed the FISCAL Rubicon in Q4 2012. That is when US Treasury Public Debt outstanding exceeded Real GDP. And the gap has been growing ever since.
In case you were wondering why M2 Money Velocity is so low, it is because the US is in constant crisis management mode as an excuse to spend trillions of dollars …. that generates progressively lower real GDP.
They built this nation on MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) which translates to the Federal government and Federal Reserve just wanting to spend trillions and trillions. Since 2005 (the peak of the housing bubble), the US Federal Reserve has increased the M2 Money stock more than real GDP growth in almost every quarter.
I remember when macroeconomists used to say “Everything is beautiful … as long as M2 Money growth is LESS than real GDP growth.” But we have apparently shifted to MMT when Everything is beautiful as long as there is a crisis and Congress can spend trillions.
Now Biden/Congress are spending billions in trying to reduce inflation (seriously, only in Washington DC would they think that massive spending bills would REDUCE inflation).
You might as well face it, we’re addicted to gov (spending).
Dear Mr. Fantasy, play us a tune, something to make us all happy (like hitting 2% inflation WITHOUT crashing the economy).
Do anything take us out of this gloom (caused by The Fed, Biden’s energy policies and Federal spending).
Sing a song, play guitar, Make it snappy. Or in the case of housing, make it crappy.
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the central bank was resolved to curb red-hot inflation, even if that meant risking a US economic recession.
“We’re committed to returning inflation to our 2% target and we’ll do what it takes to get there,” Barkin said Friday during an event in Ocean City, Maryland. He said that this could be achieved without a “tremendous decline in activity” but acknowledged that there were risks.
“There’s a path to getting inflation under control but a recession could happen in the process,” he said.
The US central bank hiked interest rates by 75 basis points in July for the second straight month as policy makers tackle inflation that’s running near 40-year highs. Fed officials speaking in recent days have said more rate increases are needed, but they are still deciding how big to move at their next policy meeting.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of the most hawkish policy makers, on Thursday urged another 75 basis-point move while Kansas City’s Esther George struck a more cautious tone.
Well, The Fed (aka, Der Kommissars) let the monetary stimulus blow out of control since 2000.
With the 2001 recession, The Fed crashed the target rate (white line) causing home price growth (blue line) to soar. Then The Fed decided that the economy was overheated and cranked up their target rate. This sudden rise in The Fed’s target rate helped to slow/crash housing prices. Resulting in … a frantic decrease in the target rate (late 2007- late 2008) and the adoption of asset purchases of Treasury Notes/Bonds and Agency Mortgage-backed Securities in late 2008.
The Bernanke/Yellen “loose as a goose” policies from late 2008 to Feb 2018 created a total mess. Bernanke/Yellen raised the target rate only one before Trump was elected President, and 8 times AFTER Trump was elected. And Yellen’s Fed began to let the balance sheet shrink a bit before Covid struck in early 2020. And with Covid came another massive expansion of The Fed’s Balance Sheet WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN WITHDRAWN (despite Fed talking heads saying it would be reduced).
Here we sit with The Fed NOW trying to extinguish inflation (yellow line) by raising their target rate (white line) but NOT shrinking the balance sheet (orange line).
Wonder why this is a horrible homeless problem in the US, particularly in California? While Stanford University has an excellent study of the causes of California’s homeless problem, there is another cause of homelessness … The Federal Reserve’s insane monetary policies since late 2008. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is 65% higher in May than during the calamitous home price bubble of 2005-2007, helping to exacerbate the homeless problem.
One of the many problems created by the reckless Bernanke/Yellen/Powell monetary policies is the M2 Money Velocity is near an all-time low making a return to “easy money policies” far more difficult.
I won’t post any photos of the homeless encampments in Los Angeles since it is very sad. But here is a photo of the Dunder-Mifflin paper company “office” on Saticoy Street. The point is that thanks to The Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policies, housing is unaffordable for millions of households forcing many to live on the streets.
Figure 2: Median Rent for a Two-Bedroom Apartment, California, 2022
And a point of trivia. The Office’s Charles Miner (played by the GREAT Idris Elba) was allegedly hired from Saticoy Steel. The Dunder-Mifflin paper company site was on Saticoy Street in sunny LA, not Scranton PA.
Good luck to The Federal Reserve in combating inflation without causing a recession.
In honor of Wolfgang Peterson who passed away yesterday, the Director of the classic WWII movie “Das Boot!” …. ALARM!
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a sixth straight month in July in the latest indication of how high borrowing costs and waning demand are propelling the housing market’s rapid decline. In fact, existing home sales fell -19% YoY in August.
Contract closings fell 5.9% in July to an annualized 4.81 million, the weakest since May 2020, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Thursday. The median estimate called for 4.86 million in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Sales fell 22.4% from a year ago on an unadjusted basis.
The nearly 26% decline in previously owned home sales since January marks the steepest six-month plunge in records back to 1999 and underscores a housing market that’s reeling from elevated mortgage rates and prices. The industry is also experiencing a slowdown in construction, and more buyers are backing away from deals.
Weaker demand has led to a pickup in inventory, which may help to cool home prices in coming months.
The median price of existing home sales growth fell to 10.55% YoY as M2 Money growth slows.
Its all about The Federal Reserve.
The US housing market is sensitive to Fed “catch-up” monetary tightening. For example, the NAHB’s traffic of prospective homebuyers declined rather dramatically in August as The Fed tightened rates and the 30yr mortgage rate rose. That is what I call a “Nestea Plunge.”
How are mortgage rates impacted by Fed monetary policy? While The Fed began really “sloshing” markets with excess stimulus (QE in late 2008), the latest round of QE (or asset purchases) came with the US Covid shutdowns (what genius thought of that??) and that stimulus has NOT been withdrawn yet. Only the Fed Funds Target rate has tightened.
The 30yr mortgage rate rose with Fed rate tightening, but the Fed’s System Open Market Holdings (SOMH) of Treasury Notes and Treasury Bonds has come down a bit. But not the pare-down The Fed has hinted at. The 30yr mortgage rate is cooling as the prospect of future Fed rate hikes declines.
As of this morning, The Fed Funds Futures market points to rates rising until March 2023 … then easing again.
One reason The Fed has been slow to sell assets off its balance sheet is that a large chunk of T-Notes and T-Bonds are maturing shortly. It will be a matter of whether The Fed reinvests the proceeds or lets the balance sheet wind-down.
The 2020 Covid outbreak led to a massive (and generally awful) reaction. There were economic shutdowns that caused extensive damage (particularly to small firms), but it was the massive overreaction by The Federal government in terms of Covid relief and The Federal Reserve’s expansion of the money supply that caused considerable damage.
One truly horrific chart is that of M1 Money and M1 Money Velocity (M1/GDP). M1 Money surged with Covid driving M1 Money Velocity down to levels never seem before.
The broader measure of money, M2, isn’t as dramatic, but we also see that M2 Money VELOCITY has plunged to levels never seen before.
What does low money velocity indicate? Simply put, The Fed is printing trillions of dollars, but GDP isn’t moving much. But that won’t stop Congress from spending (and using The Fed to buy its debt).
So, here we sit. This morning, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) remains inverted. This AM, the curve inverted another -.591 basis points to -42.725, a sign of impending recession.
Yes, we are living through Jay Powell’s famous chili episode where money velocity is near historic lows and we have an inverted yield curve.
BTW, congratulations to Will Zalatoris (aka, Happy Gilmore’s caddy) for his first PGA Tour victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship!
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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