While Corelogic’s January home price index was hot, hot, hot (UP 19.1% YoY), today’s mortgage applications index for the week ending February 25, 2022 was not, not, not.
Mortgage applications decreased 0.71 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 25, 2022.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.76 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1.16 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Yes, the mortgage industry is going through some difficult times. But not as difficult as trying to understand Biden’s State of the Union address: “Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks, but he’ll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people.” Huh?
And then Biden’s closing remark was “Go get ’em!” What? Go get whom? The Russians? Inflation? Trump supporters?? I feel like Biden thought the SOTU was the annual Army-Navy football game.
President Biden is giving his first State of the Union address tonight with rebuttals from Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and The Squad’s Rashida Talib (yes, a Republican is giving the rebuttal to Biden’s SOTU speech, and a Democrat is rebutting a Democrat President??)
Let’s look at a short list of Biden’s economic triumphs. I will ignore Biden’s catastrophic Afghanistan withdrawal and his weak response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
If you want higher oil and gasoline prices, Biden is a tremendous success.
If you like rampant government spending, then Biden is your man. Home price growth is up to 18.84%, making housing unaffordable for millions of American families.
Wages? They are up, but declining after 7.5% YoY inflation. And GDP is almost zero.
Biden can only point to rising average hourly wages, but not REAL average hourly wages.
Inflation? Highest in 40 years, due to excessive Federal spending, The Fed’s crazy printing and Biden’s energy mandates.
I am scratching my head to think of accomplishments for Biden to mention in the SOTU. But I am sure that he will say something positive. Otherwise, Biden’s SOTU speech should be the Billy Preston song “Nothing from Nothing.“
Russia is still attacking Ukraine and I am still seeing stories about actor/comedian Bob Saget’s cause of death. So now for something completely different.
We now know that Russia has invaded Ukraine and President Biden really threw the booklet at Putin in a speech today. Rather than removing Russia from the SWIFT banking system which would have really hurt Russia’s trade with Europe, he gave a surprisingly cogent speech about the US and NATO agreeing to do … not much. He did warn us that energy prices would rise (which he helped do when he took office) and told energy companies not to gauge consumers.
The reaction in Russia? Their stock market tanked over 30% (not because of Biden’s speech, but because of negative costs of war).
Russia’s 10-year sovereign yield rose to 15.23%.
The Russian Ruble crashed and burned.
UK natural gas prices rose 51% today.
And while 17 Euro nations have negative 2 year sovereign yields, Russia has 2-year sovereign yield of 28.65% which is nothing compared to Ukraine’s 75% 2-year yield (in US Dollars).
The SWIFT system, or Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, facilitates financial transactions and money transfers for banks located around the world. The system is overseen by the National Bank of Belgium and enables transactions between more than 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries around the world. Removing Russia from the SWIFT system would really hurt Russian trade with Europe. I assume that Europe is scared of soaring energy costs, so probably doesn’t want Russia removed from SWIFT.
Well, it has been a cringe-worthy year+ under President Biden. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures price is up 91% and the Commodity Research Bureau Foodstuffs index is up 47%. Talk about Biden’s energy folicies being passed through to American households in the form of higher food costs and energy prices!
And then we have mortgage rates. Bankrate’s 30Y mortgage rate is up to almost 4%, up 39% since the beginning of 2021.
Other central banks are raising rates like banshees on the moor, while The Federal Reserve continues to send conflicting signals about possible March rate hikes.
Goldman Sachs sees 7 rate hikes in 2022, culminating in an eventual 2% rate in December.
Fed Funds Futures are signalling 7 rates increases by the February 1, 2023 meeting.
As expected, US inflation surged from 7.0% in December to 7.5% in January.
REAL average weekly earnings growth YoY fell to -3.1%.
Energy prices YoY lead the wage (fuel oil UP 46.5% YoY). Used cars and trucks UP 40.5%. At least food is up “only” 7%.
At 7.5% CPI, the Taylor Rule suggests that The Federal Reserve should have their target rate be 18.90%.
At least CORE inflation is “only” 6% YoY.
How about rent CPI? The owner’s equivalent rent of residences rose to 4.09% YoY. Seems a little misleading since home prices nationally are growing at 18.81% YoY.
Fed Funds Futures data points to 6-7 rate HIKES over the coming year. BRACE FOR IMPACT!!
Yes, this is Powell’s famous chili recipe if The Fed actually starts to raise rates and pare back the balance sheet stimulus.
How bad is inflation in the USA? Try 18%, based on the Flexible Consumer Price Index.
The Flexible Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively frequently. Because flexible prices are quick to change, it assumes that when these prices are set, they incorporate less of an expectation about future inflation.
Again, remember that Federal inflation numbers woefully undercount housing and rent inflation. For example, the Case-Shiller National Home Price index (as of November 2021) was growing at 18.8%.
The sad part is that inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings growth of all employees is crashing thanks to inflation.
Well, the COVID hysteria from the Biden Administration and the media preparing us for a horrible jobs report was … incorrect. In fact, the January jobs report was “exceptional”. 467,000 jobs were added and average hourly earnings growth ROSE to 5.7% YoY.
The bad news? Thanks to surging inflation, REAL average hourly earnings growth YoY FELL to -2.36%.
Unemployment ROSE to 4.0% from 3.9% as more people dropped out of the labor force in January. On the bright side, labor force participation rate rose to 62.2% from 61.9%.
Leisure and hospitality employment (one of the most vulnerable to inflation) expanded by 151,000 in January, reflecting job gains in food services and drinking places (+108,000) and in the accommodation industry (+23,000).
The reaction in the bond market? US 10-year yields are up 6.9 basis points as Eurozone is up across the board.
Energy prices are up (except natural gas futures).
(Bloomberg) — The White House is lowering expectations for this week’s U.S. jobs report, saying that brief absences of workers due to omicron could overstate the number of unemployed people for last month.
Several White House officials have teed up Friday’s report with warnings, saying that the week when surveys were taken for the January payroll numbers was the height of illness absences in the aftermath of the holidays.
Brian Deese, the director of President Joe Biden’s National Economic Council, said the numbers could be “confusing” as Covid illnesses are recorded as job losses.
“We expect that that will have an impact on the numbers,” Deese told MSNBC on Tuesday. “We never put too much weight on any individual month; this will particularly be true in this month, because of the likely effect of the short-term absences from omicron.”
Biden has repeatedly touted employment data as an indicator of a robust economic rebound, and highlighted the tumbling jobless rate to blunt criticisms about overheated inflation. Friday’s report may still show historically low unemployment, which is based on a separate survey from the one for payrolls and counts temporary, unpaid sick leave differently.
LaborSecretary Marty Walsh and White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki have also delivered warnings that the official January jobs gain may be poor.
If a worker was out “and did not receive paid leave, they are counted as having lost their job,” Psaki said Monday. Nearly 9 million people missed work due to illness in January, when the data were being collected, she said.
“So we just wanted to kind of prepare, you know, people to understand how the data is taken,” she said. “As a result, the month’s jobs report may show job losses in large part because workers were out sick from omicron.”
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 150,000 for January — the weakest reading since the end of 2020. The U.S. unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged, at 3.9%, according to the median estimate of forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
So, are Dreese and Psaki saying that US GDP will roar back … from 0.1% … if Omicron fades away? And that all the fiscal and monetary stimulypto are going to cease creating problems??
Despite the fear of Omicron in the upcoming jobs report, there are still 5 rate hikes on the horizon to combat inflation … created by the Biden Administration and Federal Reserve as they combated COVID with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
But don’t worry, the Biden Administration ordered rapid test kits from China … and they have arrived!
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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