Rising Oil Prices Might Be What Tips US Into Recession As Biden Drains The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (Crude Oil Reserves Lowest Since 1985)

Its hard to watch Biden and The Progressive Greens destroy the enegy security of this great nation. Biden is draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, probably in a misguided attempt at ensuring we never go back to abundent petroleum again. Crude oil inventories are now the lowest since 1985.

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Household spending has kept the US economy afloat, but as growth slows a continued rise in oil and gas prices is poised to push personal consumption expenditure (PCE) lower and thus trigger a near-term recession – with stocks and bonds unpriced for such an outcome.

Once again it has been the redoubtable consumer that has thus far kept a recession at bay. However, Bloomberg Economics (BBE) pointed out in a recent article that negative household sentiment – in confluence with other drivers of household spending – suggests that we should already be in a recession.

A regression model (using income, wealth and real rates) pins PCE growth roughly where it is. But if we add in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index, it indicates much weaker PCE growth and thus an economy that would likely be already be in the midst of a slump.

I recreated BBE’s model and got something similar. I then substituted in the Conference Board’s Consumer Index instead of the Michigan survey. This also improves the fit of the original model, but does not paint as negative a picture for PCE. The reason is that the Conference Board’s measure has not deteriorated as much as the Michigan survey.

Why? The divergence between the two likely comes from the Michigan’s greater emphasis on frequent expenditures and business conditions, while the Conference Board’s index is more focused on the jobs market. As an employee, the jobs market has looked pretty good, boosting the Conference Board’s index, while the Michigan survey is more influenced by rising prices and conditions for small-business holders, which have been less rosy.

The Michigan survey is in fact very sensitive to gas prices. In the model, I added the average gas price to the model’s original inputs (i.e. ex Michigan). Doing so also improves the model’s fit, and as the chart below shows, implies notably weaker, and negative, PCE growth – and therefore an economy that would likely already be in a recession.

This highlights that the US economy is potentially on thin ice, with that ice represented by hitherto positive consumer sentiment, driven in no small part by gas prices (and sentiment on how high they are perceived to be) that remain comparatively cheap to the levels they reached last year.

But oil has been rising, driven by excess liquidity, falling inventories and supply cuts.

Tailwinds remain for oil, and therefore the nascent recent rise in gas prices is poised to continue as well. That could be the final straw which unseats the US consumer and tips the US into a recession.

The US warhawks seemed focused on Ukraine’s security, but don’t seem to care about US energy security or the personal welfare associated with open borders. Just ask Mayor Adams of New York City.

Biden speaking on US green energy.

Another Bidenomics Report Bites The Dust! Challenger Jobs Cuts Increase By 267% YoY (Biden Bowl?)

Another (economic report) bites the dust!

U.S.-based employers announced 75,151 cuts in August, a 217% increase from the 23,697 cuts announced one month prior. It is 267% higher than the 20,485 cuts announced in the same month in 2022,

As M2 Money growth collapses to Great Depression levels. Instead of The Dust Bowl, we can call this The Biden Bowl.

This great meme can be replaced by “Our President is as cold as your ex’s heart.”

Household Essentials Cost Far More Under Bidenomics! Gasoline Prices Up 72%, Rent Of Primary Residence Up 16%, Food At Home Up 20% Under Biden! (30Y Mortgage Rate UP 163% Under “Middle Class Joe”)

Middle class Joe my ^%&!

Joe Biden will always be remembered for lying about never raising taxes on households making under $400,000. Inflation is a permanent tax, mostly on those making under $400,000 per year. And household essentials are up substantially under Biden: gasoline prices are up 72%, rent CPI of Primary Residence is up 16%, and food at home CPI is up 20%! That is a HUGE tax on the middle class.

When mainstream economists and politicians cite “improvements” to the inflation problem in the US in recent months, what they are commonly referencing are changes to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  However, the CPI is not a measure of total inflation, rather, it is a median snapshot of prices at a particular point and time.  True inflation is cumulative – A 10% increase one year and a 5% increase the next year is not a win, it means that you are now paying 15% more on average for everything you buy in the span of only two years.   

When CPI falls this does not mean that prices on goods and services are going down, it only indicates that prices are rising slower than they were the month or the year before.

Another misconception about CPI is that it measures the inflation rate accurately for regular consumers on common purchases.  In reality, the CPI represents mean average price rate increase for a vast basket of goods; over 94,000 items and services with over 200 separate categories.  Most of these items and services you will never use or rarely purchase in the span of a year.  In other words, inflation declines in uncommon goods can dilute the numbers, making it seem like inflation is dropping while prices on daily necessities continue to spike.  

The CPI is weighted according to consumer spending patterns, which is where the calculations can be “adjusted” to a certain extent in an arbitrary manner.  Then there is outright government manipulation through various means.  As we witnessed recently with the Biden Administration’s claims that “Bidenomics” has defeated the inflation threat, what these reports don’t mention is that Biden has been dumping US strategic oil reserves on the market for the past year.  And since energy prices effect the inflation of so many other categories, Biden has artificially manipulated the CPI down using one key resource.  

Now that his ability to dump oil reserves has ended, CPI will rise once again along with energy prices.

The point is, it’s impossible to get a sense of the real damage from inflation without looking at the cumulative inflation in necessities (the goods and services that people are required to purchase on a regular basis to live day to day).  If we throw out the CPI distraction and look at common necessities since 2020, the economic picture is far more bleak.  

Overall food prices have soared by 25%-30% in only three years (again, this means that you are now paying 30% more this year for food than you were paying at the beginning of 2020). Chicken is up from $3 per pound to $4 per pound.  Beef is up from $3.50 to $6 per pound.  Corn is up from $3.50 per pound to $4.70 per pound.  Wheat is up from $5 per pound to $7 per pound.  In 2019 the average American household was spending $8100 on food annually; with a 30% increase, in 2023 Americans will be spending at least $10,500 per household.          

By the end of 2019, the average rental price of a single family home was around $1450 per month.  This year the price is around $2000 per month.  At the beginning of 2020, the median cost of a home was $320,000; by 2023 the price skyrocketed to an average of $416,000.  

For gasoline, the price in early 2020 was around $2.50 per gallon.  The price has fluctuated dramatically due to Biden’s manipulation of the market using strategic reserves, but still remains high today at $3.80 per gallon.  

The cost of electricity has risen swiftly, holding steady around .13 cents per kilowatt hour for a decade, then spiking to at least .17 cents per kilowatt hour by 2023.

Remember, most of these costs are static and are difficult to reduce through household spending cuts.  These are not items that are easily removed from a monthly budget and the expenditures add up to considerable pressure on consumer accounts.  This is probably why around 74% of the public in polls say that the economy is getting worse, not better.  It’s because government statistics are not highlighting the true inflationary crisis.

When we look at the cumulative climb of prices in necessities since before the inflation crisis officially began, the truth is that Americans now have to increase their wages by at least 25%-30% on average to maintain the same standard of living they had three years ago.  This is a disaster not seen since the stagflationary event of the 1970s and early 1980s.  If you have a strange feeling like your bank account is being rapidly drained in recent months, that’s because it is.    

And the 30-year mortgage rate is up 163% under Middle Class Joe.

Bidenomics Mortgage Market! Mortgage Rates Now 7.2%, UP 159% Under Maui Joe! (10Y-2Y Yield Curve Collapsed From +100 BPS To -63 BPS)

Maui Joe Biden received a lot of help from his friends at The Federal Reserve!

Thanks to the crippling effects of Bidenomics (Fed easing then tightening to combat inflation caused by insane green spending and a war in Ukraine), US mortgage rates (conforming 30-year) has increased 159%.

On the yield curve side, the US Treasury curve 10Y-2Y CMT fell from 99 basis points the day after Maui Joe was sworn-in as El Presidente to the inverted curve we see today (-63 basis points).

Dynamic Maui Joe looking less than happy trying to visit Maui while he could be partying with mega-donor Tom Steyer (a big green energy con artist).

At least Biden didn’t wear his aviator sunglasses or down an ice cream in a show of “empathy.” But, of course, he did find time to assault a child! Watch the hands Maui Joe!!!!

Hellzapoppin Under Bidenomics! Conforming 30-year Mortgage Rate UP 163.5% (Federal Debt UP 19% Or >$5 Trillion Under Biden While Unfunded Liabilities Are Now At $193 TRILLION)

Hellzapoppin under Bidenomics! And it isn’t a musical, but a tragedy.

Between The Federal Reserve’s outrageous overreaction to Covid (printing like there was no tomorrow), and Biden’s massive spending spree (lots of moldy (green) spending, we have see horrid inflation.

And The Fed trying (sort of) to combat inflation, we see that 30-year CONFORMING mortgage rate for 80% LTV or lower credit borrowers is up 163.5% under Bidenomics.

Under Bidenomics, public debt (owed by the US Treasury) is up 19% or greater than $5 triillion. Now wonder Biden throws are billions like it is water.

I seriously want the Biden Administration (and almost every member of Congress) why we are sending billions of dollars to Ukraine while barely giving Maui fire victims barely anything. The US is already $33 trillion in debt with >$193 trillion in unfunded liabilites. I want to ask Biden and Congress HOW the US is going to afford $193 trillion in unfunded liabilites?

Of course, NO ONE wants to face the reality of the disastrous fiscal poliicies of Washington DC politicians. Not McConnell, not McCarthy, not Schumer and especially not Billions Biden. Remember 10% for The Big Guy where Democrats argue that is meaningless. Or mini-me, Robert Reich (Clinton’s labor secretary) who claimed that the US economy is the best he has ever seen! Yes, Reich, for the top 1%. Of couse, no one will ask fools like Reich how we will pay for $33 trillion in debt and the $193 trillion in unfunded liabilies … and fund a war in Ukreiane in seeming perpetuity.

My good friend Jesse has an excellent write-up on the upcoming KC Federal Reserve annual retreat at Jackson Hole, WYO. This retreat is just the US banking version of The World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab. Know-it-all unelected elitists controlling our lives.

July’s US Industrial Production … Returns To 2007 Levels Despite Staggering Fed Monetary Stimulus And Federal Government Spending Spree

Well, its now August 2023 and US Industrial Production for July increased … to 2007 levels. This comes after the massive spending out of Washington DC and massive Federal Rerserve stimulus.

Is that all there is??

US Industrial Production is DOWN -0.23% YoY while up slightly in MoM terms.

As I said a couple of days ago, the Obama/Biden economic model is a Soviet/Chinese Communist Party (CCP) style of COMMAND economics, not free market DEMAND economics.

As if dimwitted Mean Joe Biden has a clue.

Boss Biden’s Economy! Core Inflation Prints At 4.7% In July, Food UP 4.9% YoY, Shelter UP 7.7% YoY (Although Fed Is Unlikely To Raise Rates Again)

Welcome to Boss Biden’s America! It reminds of woefully corrupt Boss Tweed and Tammany Hall in New York City. Today’s inflation report revealed that core CPI YoY was 4.7%. Ugh!

While energy prices are down since last year, Food prices are still up 4.9% YoY and shelter (housing) CPI is up 7.7% YoY.

Expectations for this morning’s must-watch CPI print were for a MoM and YoY rise in the headline, and modest slowing of the core YoY. However, The Fed will be watching its new favorite signal – Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter – which reaccelerated in July (+0.2% MoM, and from +3.9% to +4.0% YoY).

The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July (as expected), the same as in June, pushing the YoY up to 3.2% (from 3.0% in June) but below the 3.3% expected…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s increase in CPI YoY broke the record-equaling streak of 12 straight months of declines.

Core CPI rose 0.16% MoM, with the YoY growth in prices slowing to 4.7%.

Source: Bloomberg

Both Goods and Services inflation (YoY) slowed in July – but Services remain extremely high at +6.1%…

Source: Bloomberg

On an annual basis, the index for all items less food and energy rose 4.7% over the past 12 months with the shelter index rising 7.7% over the last year, accounting for over two-thirds of the total increase in all items less food and energy.

Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+17.8 percent), recreation (+4.1 percent), new vehicles (+3.5 percent), and household furnishings and operations (+2.9 percent).

Source: Bloomberg

Taking a closer look at the all important shelter index, while it is still growing both sequentially and annually, the slowdown in growth is increasing more visible:

  • Shelter inflation up 7.69% YoY in July vs 7.83% in June, lowest since Dec 22; also up 0.43% MoM, lowest monthly increase since Jan 22
  • Rent inflation up 8.03% in July vs 8.33% in June, lowest since Nov 22; also up 0.41% MoM, lowest since March 22

The silver lining here, as noted by former Fed staffer Julia Coronado, is that “we are seeing core inflation slow before the expected big step down in rent/oer” which is great news as “lots of price sensitivity in travel and core goods that was slow to take hold but is now fully coming through.” In other words, if and when rent/shelter inflation actually post a decline (with the usual 12-18 month BLS lag), the Fed will be scrambling to fight inflation.

Turning to the wage aspect, for the second month in a row, ‘real’ wages rose YoY in July (but barely, +0.2%), and it appears that we are about to dip back into real contraction next month.

Source: Bloomberg

So the question becomes – is this an inflection point in inflation? (or is M2 still leading the way?)

Source: Bloomberg

Yet, Fed Funds Futures are pointing to no further Fed rate hikes.

With House Republicans releasing bank records showing over $20 million in payments to Biden family, associates, and Democrats denying any wrongdoing, I think we are seeing the Biden Administration as a rebirth of New York City’s Tammany Hall corrupt political machine led by Boss Tweed. Since Biden’s malfeasance/influence peddling occurred when he was Vice President under Barack Obama (aka, Barry Soetoro), Obama is the new Bathhouse John Coughlin the woefully corrupt Chicago Alderman and Hunter Biden is the new Hinky Dink (Michael Kenna, also a woefully corrupt Chicago Alderman).

Bathhouse Barry Soetoro, Boss Biden and Hinky Hunter at a basketball game.

Bidenomics Falsehood: Biden “Created” 400k Jobs Per Month While Trump Lost Jobs (Actually Trump Averaged 1.56 Million Jobs Added Post-Covid While Biden Averaged 400k)

“One of the most cowardly things ordinarily people do, Is to shut their eyes to facts.” – C.S. Lewis

Okay, we know Biden lies constantly and misrepresents facts (hey, he is a politician like Adam Schiff (D-CA). But this graphic praising Bidenomics with Biden having created the most jobs (average per month) since Carter (notice they left out Democrat darling Jimmy Carter!!!). In this absurd graphic, Biden wins by “creating” over 400k jobs per month while Trump lost jobs per month. Riveting … except that it is completely misleading.

Actually, the US economy added 12.53 million jobs after April 2020 (Trump) while Bidenomics created took 2 1/2 years to add 12.56 million jobs. So, Biden took over twice as long to create jobs after Covid than it did under Trump. Simply opening the economy and schools produced that magical claim by Biden. And the National Teacher’s Union and Randi Weingarten worked with Fauci to orchestrate shutting down schools. Blaming Trump for local governments shutting down the economy is pure bunk.

12.53 millions jobs added / 8 months = 1.56 million jobs average per month. Biden? 12.56 million jobs added / 30 months = .43 million jobs average per month. So, Trump averaged more than 3x the job growth post-Covid than Biden.

Here is the “glories of Bidenomics” from the White House. As Biden likes to say, pure malarkey!

I wonder if the Democrat Party is a rebirth of New York City’s Tammany Hall corrupt political movement of the 1800s? Is Biden Boss Tweed? Or is Obama Boss Tweed with Biden as his nasty, dimwitted henchman?

In 1871, Thomas Nast denounces Tammany as a ferocious tiger killing democracy. The image of a tiger was often used to represent the Tammany Hall political movement. Sounds an awful lot like today’s Democrat Party.

Perhaps a fez for Democrats?

US Gasoline Prices Surge Again 6.5% Since 7/23/2023 (Gas Prices UP 60% Under Bidenomics As Strategic Petroleum Reserve DOWN -46% Under Corrupt Joe)

Josef Stalin of the old Soviet Union used to be called County Joe. But Biden has so many possible nicknames: Corrupt Joe, Pay-for-play Joe, Sleazy Joe, Bully Joe, etc. How about Green Joe?

Green Joe (or the Nasty Green Giant?) along with his energy goon Jennifer Granholm, have drained the strategic petroleum reserve by 46% while gasoline prices have soared 60% under Bidenomics.

Gasoline prices have rise over 6.5% just since 7/23/2023.

Trump wants to drain the swamp, Biden/Granholm want to drain the strategic petroleum reserve so we can’t go back to fossil fuels. Biden and Granholm as Fossil Fools

Energy Secretary Jennifer “The Evil Pixie’ Granholm demostrating how she will refill the strategic petroleum reserve. Which she never will, of course.

Why US Inflation Will Start Rising Again (WTI Crude Futures UP Above $80 Again As Gasoline Futures UP 91.5% Under Bidenomics)

Joe Biden said that Republicans will impeach him in the House of Representatives since inflation is coming down. Huh? No Joe, it is because your are the most corrupt President in history, a compulsive liar and your economic policies are pure World Economic Forum mandates (open borders, Central Bank Digital currency, green energy, etc). Biden started off his Presidency by declaring war on fossil fuels that helped drive prices through the roof. And the middle class are paying the price.

But as inflation cools (blue line) thanks in part to Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (orange line), Biden can gloat. But remember, gasoline prices remain 56% higher under Biden’s Reign of Error. Even worse, gasoline FUTURES are up 91.5% under Biden. Yikes!

But look at how gasoline prices and gasoline futures have risen in July (pink circle). The last inflation report showed that inflation has declined to 3% (still higher than The Fed’s 2% target), gasoline prices are up almost 5% since July 19, 2023.

Gasoline, meanwhile, started the year at less than $2.50 per gallon. This week, gasoline topped $2.90 per gallon and may yet reach $3.

WTI Crude Oil futures have broken through the $80 barrier … again. Heating oil futures are up 1.43% today with WTI Crude futures up 0.61%.

So as energy prices keep rising (and Biden’s EPA keeps issuing green energy edicts and fails to recognize that our power grid can’t support all the electric cars and trucks envisioned by the Obama/Biden green dreamers). As such, energy prices will keep rising and with it … inflation.