Household Essentials Cost Far More Under Bidenomics! Gasoline Prices Up 72%, Rent Of Primary Residence Up 16%, Food At Home Up 20% Under Biden! (30Y Mortgage Rate UP 163% Under “Middle Class Joe”)

Middle class Joe my ^%&!

Joe Biden will always be remembered for lying about never raising taxes on households making under $400,000. Inflation is a permanent tax, mostly on those making under $400,000 per year. And household essentials are up substantially under Biden: gasoline prices are up 72%, rent CPI of Primary Residence is up 16%, and food at home CPI is up 20%! That is a HUGE tax on the middle class.

When mainstream economists and politicians cite “improvements” to the inflation problem in the US in recent months, what they are commonly referencing are changes to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  However, the CPI is not a measure of total inflation, rather, it is a median snapshot of prices at a particular point and time.  True inflation is cumulative – A 10% increase one year and a 5% increase the next year is not a win, it means that you are now paying 15% more on average for everything you buy in the span of only two years.   

When CPI falls this does not mean that prices on goods and services are going down, it only indicates that prices are rising slower than they were the month or the year before.

Another misconception about CPI is that it measures the inflation rate accurately for regular consumers on common purchases.  In reality, the CPI represents mean average price rate increase for a vast basket of goods; over 94,000 items and services with over 200 separate categories.  Most of these items and services you will never use or rarely purchase in the span of a year.  In other words, inflation declines in uncommon goods can dilute the numbers, making it seem like inflation is dropping while prices on daily necessities continue to spike.  

The CPI is weighted according to consumer spending patterns, which is where the calculations can be “adjusted” to a certain extent in an arbitrary manner.  Then there is outright government manipulation through various means.  As we witnessed recently with the Biden Administration’s claims that “Bidenomics” has defeated the inflation threat, what these reports don’t mention is that Biden has been dumping US strategic oil reserves on the market for the past year.  And since energy prices effect the inflation of so many other categories, Biden has artificially manipulated the CPI down using one key resource.  

Now that his ability to dump oil reserves has ended, CPI will rise once again along with energy prices.

The point is, it’s impossible to get a sense of the real damage from inflation without looking at the cumulative inflation in necessities (the goods and services that people are required to purchase on a regular basis to live day to day).  If we throw out the CPI distraction and look at common necessities since 2020, the economic picture is far more bleak.  

Overall food prices have soared by 25%-30% in only three years (again, this means that you are now paying 30% more this year for food than you were paying at the beginning of 2020). Chicken is up from $3 per pound to $4 per pound.  Beef is up from $3.50 to $6 per pound.  Corn is up from $3.50 per pound to $4.70 per pound.  Wheat is up from $5 per pound to $7 per pound.  In 2019 the average American household was spending $8100 on food annually; with a 30% increase, in 2023 Americans will be spending at least $10,500 per household.          

By the end of 2019, the average rental price of a single family home was around $1450 per month.  This year the price is around $2000 per month.  At the beginning of 2020, the median cost of a home was $320,000; by 2023 the price skyrocketed to an average of $416,000.  

For gasoline, the price in early 2020 was around $2.50 per gallon.  The price has fluctuated dramatically due to Biden’s manipulation of the market using strategic reserves, but still remains high today at $3.80 per gallon.  

The cost of electricity has risen swiftly, holding steady around .13 cents per kilowatt hour for a decade, then spiking to at least .17 cents per kilowatt hour by 2023.

Remember, most of these costs are static and are difficult to reduce through household spending cuts.  These are not items that are easily removed from a monthly budget and the expenditures add up to considerable pressure on consumer accounts.  This is probably why around 74% of the public in polls say that the economy is getting worse, not better.  It’s because government statistics are not highlighting the true inflationary crisis.

When we look at the cumulative climb of prices in necessities since before the inflation crisis officially began, the truth is that Americans now have to increase their wages by at least 25%-30% on average to maintain the same standard of living they had three years ago.  This is a disaster not seen since the stagflationary event of the 1970s and early 1980s.  If you have a strange feeling like your bank account is being rapidly drained in recent months, that’s because it is.    

And the 30-year mortgage rate is up 163% under Middle Class Joe.

Bidenomics Mortgage Market! Mortgage Rates Now 7.2%, UP 159% Under Maui Joe! (10Y-2Y Yield Curve Collapsed From +100 BPS To -63 BPS)

Maui Joe Biden received a lot of help from his friends at The Federal Reserve!

Thanks to the crippling effects of Bidenomics (Fed easing then tightening to combat inflation caused by insane green spending and a war in Ukraine), US mortgage rates (conforming 30-year) has increased 159%.

On the yield curve side, the US Treasury curve 10Y-2Y CMT fell from 99 basis points the day after Maui Joe was sworn-in as El Presidente to the inverted curve we see today (-63 basis points).

Dynamic Maui Joe looking less than happy trying to visit Maui while he could be partying with mega-donor Tom Steyer (a big green energy con artist).

At least Biden didn’t wear his aviator sunglasses or down an ice cream in a show of “empathy.” But, of course, he did find time to assault a child! Watch the hands Maui Joe!!!!

Hellzapoppin Under Bidenomics! Conforming 30-year Mortgage Rate UP 163.5% (Federal Debt UP 19% Or >$5 Trillion Under Biden While Unfunded Liabilities Are Now At $193 TRILLION)

Hellzapoppin under Bidenomics! And it isn’t a musical, but a tragedy.

Between The Federal Reserve’s outrageous overreaction to Covid (printing like there was no tomorrow), and Biden’s massive spending spree (lots of moldy (green) spending, we have see horrid inflation.

And The Fed trying (sort of) to combat inflation, we see that 30-year CONFORMING mortgage rate for 80% LTV or lower credit borrowers is up 163.5% under Bidenomics.

Under Bidenomics, public debt (owed by the US Treasury) is up 19% or greater than $5 triillion. Now wonder Biden throws are billions like it is water.

I seriously want the Biden Administration (and almost every member of Congress) why we are sending billions of dollars to Ukraine while barely giving Maui fire victims barely anything. The US is already $33 trillion in debt with >$193 trillion in unfunded liabilites. I want to ask Biden and Congress HOW the US is going to afford $193 trillion in unfunded liabilites?

Of course, NO ONE wants to face the reality of the disastrous fiscal poliicies of Washington DC politicians. Not McConnell, not McCarthy, not Schumer and especially not Billions Biden. Remember 10% for The Big Guy where Democrats argue that is meaningless. Or mini-me, Robert Reich (Clinton’s labor secretary) who claimed that the US economy is the best he has ever seen! Yes, Reich, for the top 1%. Of couse, no one will ask fools like Reich how we will pay for $33 trillion in debt and the $193 trillion in unfunded liabilies … and fund a war in Ukreiane in seeming perpetuity.

My good friend Jesse has an excellent write-up on the upcoming KC Federal Reserve annual retreat at Jackson Hole, WYO. This retreat is just the US banking version of The World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab. Know-it-all unelected elitists controlling our lives.

July’s US Industrial Production … Returns To 2007 Levels Despite Staggering Fed Monetary Stimulus And Federal Government Spending Spree

Well, its now August 2023 and US Industrial Production for July increased … to 2007 levels. This comes after the massive spending out of Washington DC and massive Federal Rerserve stimulus.

Is that all there is??

US Industrial Production is DOWN -0.23% YoY while up slightly in MoM terms.

As I said a couple of days ago, the Obama/Biden economic model is a Soviet/Chinese Communist Party (CCP) style of COMMAND economics, not free market DEMAND economics.

As if dimwitted Mean Joe Biden has a clue.

Boss Biden’s Economy! Core Inflation Prints At 4.7% In July, Food UP 4.9% YoY, Shelter UP 7.7% YoY (Although Fed Is Unlikely To Raise Rates Again)

Welcome to Boss Biden’s America! It reminds of woefully corrupt Boss Tweed and Tammany Hall in New York City. Today’s inflation report revealed that core CPI YoY was 4.7%. Ugh!

While energy prices are down since last year, Food prices are still up 4.9% YoY and shelter (housing) CPI is up 7.7% YoY.

Expectations for this morning’s must-watch CPI print were for a MoM and YoY rise in the headline, and modest slowing of the core YoY. However, The Fed will be watching its new favorite signal – Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter – which reaccelerated in July (+0.2% MoM, and from +3.9% to +4.0% YoY).

The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July (as expected), the same as in June, pushing the YoY up to 3.2% (from 3.0% in June) but below the 3.3% expected…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s increase in CPI YoY broke the record-equaling streak of 12 straight months of declines.

Core CPI rose 0.16% MoM, with the YoY growth in prices slowing to 4.7%.

Source: Bloomberg

Both Goods and Services inflation (YoY) slowed in July – but Services remain extremely high at +6.1%…

Source: Bloomberg

On an annual basis, the index for all items less food and energy rose 4.7% over the past 12 months with the shelter index rising 7.7% over the last year, accounting for over two-thirds of the total increase in all items less food and energy.

Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+17.8 percent), recreation (+4.1 percent), new vehicles (+3.5 percent), and household furnishings and operations (+2.9 percent).

Source: Bloomberg

Taking a closer look at the all important shelter index, while it is still growing both sequentially and annually, the slowdown in growth is increasing more visible:

  • Shelter inflation up 7.69% YoY in July vs 7.83% in June, lowest since Dec 22; also up 0.43% MoM, lowest monthly increase since Jan 22
  • Rent inflation up 8.03% in July vs 8.33% in June, lowest since Nov 22; also up 0.41% MoM, lowest since March 22

The silver lining here, as noted by former Fed staffer Julia Coronado, is that “we are seeing core inflation slow before the expected big step down in rent/oer” which is great news as “lots of price sensitivity in travel and core goods that was slow to take hold but is now fully coming through.” In other words, if and when rent/shelter inflation actually post a decline (with the usual 12-18 month BLS lag), the Fed will be scrambling to fight inflation.

Turning to the wage aspect, for the second month in a row, ‘real’ wages rose YoY in July (but barely, +0.2%), and it appears that we are about to dip back into real contraction next month.

Source: Bloomberg

So the question becomes – is this an inflection point in inflation? (or is M2 still leading the way?)

Source: Bloomberg

Yet, Fed Funds Futures are pointing to no further Fed rate hikes.

With House Republicans releasing bank records showing over $20 million in payments to Biden family, associates, and Democrats denying any wrongdoing, I think we are seeing the Biden Administration as a rebirth of New York City’s Tammany Hall corrupt political machine led by Boss Tweed. Since Biden’s malfeasance/influence peddling occurred when he was Vice President under Barack Obama (aka, Barry Soetoro), Obama is the new Bathhouse John Coughlin the woefully corrupt Chicago Alderman and Hunter Biden is the new Hinky Dink (Michael Kenna, also a woefully corrupt Chicago Alderman).

Bathhouse Barry Soetoro, Boss Biden and Hinky Hunter at a basketball game.

Bidenomics Falsehood: Biden “Created” 400k Jobs Per Month While Trump Lost Jobs (Actually Trump Averaged 1.56 Million Jobs Added Post-Covid While Biden Averaged 400k)

“One of the most cowardly things ordinarily people do, Is to shut their eyes to facts.” – C.S. Lewis

Okay, we know Biden lies constantly and misrepresents facts (hey, he is a politician like Adam Schiff (D-CA). But this graphic praising Bidenomics with Biden having created the most jobs (average per month) since Carter (notice they left out Democrat darling Jimmy Carter!!!). In this absurd graphic, Biden wins by “creating” over 400k jobs per month while Trump lost jobs per month. Riveting … except that it is completely misleading.

Actually, the US economy added 12.53 million jobs after April 2020 (Trump) while Bidenomics created took 2 1/2 years to add 12.56 million jobs. So, Biden took over twice as long to create jobs after Covid than it did under Trump. Simply opening the economy and schools produced that magical claim by Biden. And the National Teacher’s Union and Randi Weingarten worked with Fauci to orchestrate shutting down schools. Blaming Trump for local governments shutting down the economy is pure bunk.

12.53 millions jobs added / 8 months = 1.56 million jobs average per month. Biden? 12.56 million jobs added / 30 months = .43 million jobs average per month. So, Trump averaged more than 3x the job growth post-Covid than Biden.

Here is the “glories of Bidenomics” from the White House. As Biden likes to say, pure malarkey!

I wonder if the Democrat Party is a rebirth of New York City’s Tammany Hall corrupt political movement of the 1800s? Is Biden Boss Tweed? Or is Obama Boss Tweed with Biden as his nasty, dimwitted henchman?

In 1871, Thomas Nast denounces Tammany as a ferocious tiger killing democracy. The image of a tiger was often used to represent the Tammany Hall political movement. Sounds an awful lot like today’s Democrat Party.

Perhaps a fez for Democrats?

US Gasoline Prices Surge Again 6.5% Since 7/23/2023 (Gas Prices UP 60% Under Bidenomics As Strategic Petroleum Reserve DOWN -46% Under Corrupt Joe)

Josef Stalin of the old Soviet Union used to be called County Joe. But Biden has so many possible nicknames: Corrupt Joe, Pay-for-play Joe, Sleazy Joe, Bully Joe, etc. How about Green Joe?

Green Joe (or the Nasty Green Giant?) along with his energy goon Jennifer Granholm, have drained the strategic petroleum reserve by 46% while gasoline prices have soared 60% under Bidenomics.

Gasoline prices have rise over 6.5% just since 7/23/2023.

Trump wants to drain the swamp, Biden/Granholm want to drain the strategic petroleum reserve so we can’t go back to fossil fuels. Biden and Granholm as Fossil Fools

Energy Secretary Jennifer “The Evil Pixie’ Granholm demostrating how she will refill the strategic petroleum reserve. Which she never will, of course.

Why US Inflation Will Start Rising Again (WTI Crude Futures UP Above $80 Again As Gasoline Futures UP 91.5% Under Bidenomics)

Joe Biden said that Republicans will impeach him in the House of Representatives since inflation is coming down. Huh? No Joe, it is because your are the most corrupt President in history, a compulsive liar and your economic policies are pure World Economic Forum mandates (open borders, Central Bank Digital currency, green energy, etc). Biden started off his Presidency by declaring war on fossil fuels that helped drive prices through the roof. And the middle class are paying the price.

But as inflation cools (blue line) thanks in part to Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (orange line), Biden can gloat. But remember, gasoline prices remain 56% higher under Biden’s Reign of Error. Even worse, gasoline FUTURES are up 91.5% under Biden. Yikes!

But look at how gasoline prices and gasoline futures have risen in July (pink circle). The last inflation report showed that inflation has declined to 3% (still higher than The Fed’s 2% target), gasoline prices are up almost 5% since July 19, 2023.

Gasoline, meanwhile, started the year at less than $2.50 per gallon. This week, gasoline topped $2.90 per gallon and may yet reach $3.

WTI Crude Oil futures have broken through the $80 barrier … again. Heating oil futures are up 1.43% today with WTI Crude futures up 0.61%.

So as energy prices keep rising (and Biden’s EPA keeps issuing green energy edicts and fails to recognize that our power grid can’t support all the electric cars and trucks envisioned by the Obama/Biden green dreamers). As such, energy prices will keep rising and with it … inflation.

Bidenomics Or How Washington Ruined America’s Future: Interest on Federal Debt Rose 76% Under Biden (US Interest On Federal Debt > 6x EU Defense Spending As Unfunded US Liabilities Exceed $192 TRILLION!)

How badly has Bidenomics and generally Federal spending has crippled the US? An example. The interest on US Federal debt is approaching $1 TRILLION (and Biden/Democrats REFUSE to cut any spending, not that Republicans are much better). To show up how messed up this is, the EU’s defense budget (remember Ukraine?) is far smaller that the US interest payments on their debt. That is, US interest payments alone on the massive Federal debt of over $32 trillion is over 6 times larger than the entire defense budget for the European Union!

United States Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen has an incredible job.  She writes rubber checks to pay America’s bills.  Yet, somehow, the rubber checks don’t bounce.  Instead, like magic, they clear.

How this all works, considering the nation’s technically insolvent, is quite miraculous.  But it works, nonetheless.  Again and again, the Treasury borrows money.  And Washington spends it.

Yellen likely knows that full faith and credit is too good to be true.  The U.S. government’s gross fiscal mismanagement should call the veracity of its notes into question.  But why focus on it when there’s an abundance to be acquired from weekly Treasury bill auctions?

On a recent trip to China, Yellen was spotted by a local food blogger consuming a plate of magic mushrooms.  An aide to Yellen later confirmed that she did, indeed, order them.  The restaurant’s “staff said she loved [the] mushrooms very much.  It was an extremely magical day.”

We don’t know what their acute effects on Yellen were, while she was in Beijing.  But the mushrooms appear to be contributing to her chronic hallucinations about the U.S. economy’s current health.  This week, for example, while attending the G20 meeting in India, Yellen remarked:

“For the United States, growth has slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong.  I don’t expect a recession.  The most recent inflation data were quite encouraging.”

These, no doubt, are the fantasies of a person under the influence of mind-altering chemicals.  Either that, or her mind has turned soft over decades of working as a professional economist for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.

Tempered Perspective

The unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is, in fact, just 3.6 percent.  Yellen can celebrate the data point.  But the quality of the jobs being created is not the type that will drive economic growth.

Higher-paying technology and finance jobs are being purged.  While leisure, hospitality, and government are the sectors contributing to employment growth.  These jobs may be important.  Still, they will not create new wealth or help America compete with its global rivals.

Yellen, while under the influence, also remarked that she doesn’t expect a recession.  Maybe this is why you should expect one.

Her predictive acumen has missed the target in the past.  If you recall, in 2017 she said she did not believe another financial crisis would happen in our lifetime.  Since then, we’ve had one financial crisis after another, including the most recent bank failures this spring.

Just this week, Bank of America reported its bond losses in the second quarter increased $7 billion to nearly $106 billion.  And Starwood Capital Group just defaulted on a $215.5 million mortgage on an Atlanta office tower.  Probably nothing to worry about, right?

In addition, this week Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the mega chip maker, reported its first profit drop in 4 years.  Revenue slipped 10 percent from a year ago.  What’s more, net income fell 23.3 percent.  Wasn’t AI supposed to drive silicon wafer production to commanding heights?

With respect to what Yellen called ‘encouraging inflation data’.  While under the influence, she was likely referring to the recent CPI report from the BLS, which showed that in June, consumer prices increased at an annualized rate of 3 percent.  This is still 50 percent higher than the Fed’s arbitrary inflation target.

Moreover, the energy commodities component showed a 16.7 percent price decline over the last year.  This has coincided with President Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low.  Without these short-sighted actions, the current inflation data would be much less encouraging.

Structural Crisis

In short, the U.S. economy’s prospects do not quite align with Yellen’s positive outlook.  And if you look out further than just the current data reports, you’ll be greeted with a structural crisis of significant consequence.

In fact, simple arithmetic quickly reveals the precarious predicament the 118th Congress is putting the American people in.

The Treasury Department, the agency Yellen oversees, recently reported that for the first 9 months of the 2023 fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of nearly $1.4 trillion.  That’s a 170 percent increase from the same period last year.

The big surprise, however, was that interest on Treasury debt securities for the first 9 months of FY2023 topped $652 billion.  A 25 percent increase for this period a year ago.

Rapid and repeated interest rate hikes by the Fed to contain the raging price inflation of its own making, has blown out the interest owed on Treasury debt.  Anyone with half an inkling knew this was coming from miles away.

The growth of federal debt has been out of control for decades.  But the rate of debt growth in the 21st century has rapidly accelerated.

The solution that’s commonly offered by the politicians for getting a handle on Washington’s debt problem is for the economy to somehow grow its way out.  Countless policies over the years have generally involved borrowing money from the future and spending it today.

Yet economic growth never manages to outpace the debt increases.  Instead, the debt piles up higher and higher with each passing year.  The simple fact is you can’t grow your way out of debt when the debt’s increasing faster than gross domestic product (GDP).

For example, in 2000 the federal debt was about $5.6 trillion, and U.S. GDP was about $10 trillion.  Today, the federal debt is over $32.5 trillion, and GDP is about $26.5 trillion.  In just 23 years the federal debt has increased by over 480 percent while GDP has increased just 165 percent.

How Washington Ruined America’s Future

Recently, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation attempted to characterize the $32 trillion federal debt.  The number is so large it is difficult to comprehend.  Here is some of what the foundation came up with:

The $32 trillion debt is more than the combined values of the economies of China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.  It represents $244,000 per household or $96,000 per person in America.  And if every household contributed $1,000 per month towards paying down the national debt it would take over 20 years.

Without question, Washington has run up an impossible tab.  Yet, what does it have to show for all this recklessness?

America’s cities are decaying from the inside out.  The infrastructure is crumbling.  The country has been involved in one overseas quagmire after another.  And the populace is struggling with gender identification pronouns.

The political will to stop this massive debt pileup has been nonexistent.  Democrats and Republicans have both spent like drunken sailors.  There’s been no tradeoffs or compromises to cut spending.  There’s been zero effort to balance the budget.  And now it’s too late.

As mentioned above, interest on Treasury debt securities for the first 9 months of FY2023 topped $652 billion – a 25 percent increase from a year ago.  But this is just the beginning.

As interest rates continue to rise, the annual interest on Treasury debt will soon pass $1 trillion.  That would put this line item at par with outlays for Social Security, the U.S. government’s largest expenditure.

This would also put spending on interest payments above the combined spending of research and development, infrastructure, and education.

Consequently, by repeatedly borrowing and spending money, piling up massive debt, and then being forced to jack up interest rates, Washington has ruined America’s future.

Yippee!  Look Ma, no hands! The face of America decline: Former Fed Chair Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen who is now our woefully inept Treasury Secretary. You know, the Treasury Secretary who bowed three times to a Chinese Communist Party leader.

A reminder of the pickle that our politicians have put us in. US Federal debt is at $32.62 TRILLION … and UNFUNDED LIABILITIES (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc) are at $192.5 TRILLION!!! Yes, the US economy is broken beyond hope of repair, yet dunce voters keep reelecting imbeciles like Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, John McConnell, etc.

Bidenomics? Since January 2021, Regular Gasoline Prices Up 57% Under Biden, CRB Foodstuffs Up 55% As Strategic Petroleum Reserves DOWN -46% (10Y-2Y Treasury Curve Inverts To -102.45)

Jared Bernstein was VP Joe Biden’s former Chief Economist and is now chair of the United States Council of Economic Advisers. Pretty impressive! Except that Bernstein is not really an economist. He has a PhD in social welfare from Columbia University. In other words, Bernstein is a Progressive Marxist cheerleader, not a real economist. Perfect for The Biden Adminstration where they installed a small town Mayor with no experience (Buttigieg) as Transportation Secretary.

But Bernstein’s interview with Fox’s Shannon Bream on gas prices under Biden says it all about his economic acumen:

Top economic advisor Jared Bernstein tries and fails to brag about gas prices under Biden.

HOST: “…what about where we started? Because when [Biden] took office, it was $2.39/gallon. Now, it’s about $3.60/gallon…”

BERNSTEIN: “Yes, it depends on what your benchmark is.”

Bernstein’s answer reminds me of the infamous reply of President Clinton about having sex in the Oval Office with Monica Lewinsky: “It depends on what the definition of sex is.”

Well, Jared, here is the data.

Since January 2021, regular gasoline prices are up 57% under Biden’s and Bernstein’s Reigns of Error. CRB Foodstuffs are up 55% under Clueless Joe and Diesel prices 50% under Bully Biden. Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves is DOWN -46% under Hidin’ Biden.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve has inverted to -102.45 as it does prior to a recession. I would love to hear “economist” Jared Bernstein explain that!

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index fell to -0.32 in June. That is negative readings for 6 of the last 8 months.

The Fed still hasn’t removed its monetary stimulypto from the market.