Joe Biden said that Republicans will impeach him in the House of Representatives since inflation is coming down. Huh? No Joe, it is because your are the most corrupt President in history, a compulsive liar and your economic policies are pure World Economic Forum mandates (open borders, Central Bank Digital currency, green energy, etc). Biden started off his Presidency by declaring war on fossil fuels that helped drive prices through the roof. And the middle class are paying the price.
But as inflation cools (blue line) thanks in part to Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (orange line), Biden can gloat. But remember, gasoline prices remain 56% higher under Biden’s Reign of Error. Even worse, gasoline FUTURES are up 91.5% under Biden. Yikes!
But look at how gasoline prices and gasoline futures have risen in July (pink circle). The last inflation report showed that inflation has declined to 3% (still higher than The Fed’s 2% target), gasoline prices are up almost 5% since July 19, 2023.
Gasoline, meanwhile, started the year at less than $2.50 per gallon. This week, gasoline topped $2.90 per gallon and may yet reach $3.
WTI Crude Oil futures have broken through the $80 barrier … again. Heating oil futures are up 1.43% today with WTI Crude futures up 0.61%.
So as energy prices keep rising (and Biden’s EPA keeps issuing green energy edicts and fails to recognize that our power grid can’t support all the electric cars and trucks envisioned by the Obama/Biden green dreamers). As such, energy prices will keep rising and with it … inflation.
How badly has Bidenomics and generally Federal spending has crippled the US? An example. The interest on US Federal debt is approaching $1 TRILLION (and Biden/Democrats REFUSE to cut any spending, not that Republicans are much better). To show up how messed up this is, the EU’s defense budget (remember Ukraine?) is far smaller that the US interest payments on their debt. That is, US interest payments alone on the massive Federal debt of over $32 trillion is over 6 times larger than the entire defense budget for the European Union!
How this all works, considering the nation’s technically insolvent, is quite miraculous. But it works, nonetheless. Again and again, the Treasury borrows money. And Washington spends it.
Yellen likely knows that full faith and credit is too good to be true. The U.S. government’s gross fiscal mismanagement should call the veracity of its notes into question. But why focus on it when there’s an abundance to be acquired from weekly Treasury bill auctions?
On a recent trip to China, Yellen was spotted by a local food blogger consuming a plate of magic mushrooms. An aide to Yellen later confirmed that she did, indeed, order them. The restaurant’s “staff said she loved [the] mushrooms very much. It was an extremely magical day.”
We don’t know what their acute effects on Yellen were, while she was in Beijing. But the mushrooms appear to be contributing to her chronic hallucinations about the U.S. economy’s current health. This week, for example, while attending the G20 meeting in India, Yellen remarked:
“For the United States, growth has slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong. I don’t expect a recession. The most recent inflation data were quite encouraging.”
These, no doubt, are the fantasies of a person under the influence of mind-altering chemicals. Either that, or her mind has turned soft over decades of working as a professional economist for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
Tempered Perspective
The unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is, in fact, just 3.6 percent. Yellen can celebrate the data point. But the quality of the jobs being created is not the type that will drive economic growth.
Higher-paying technology and finance jobs are being purged. While leisure, hospitality, and government are the sectors contributing to employment growth. These jobs may be important. Still, they will not create new wealth or help America compete with its global rivals.
Yellen, while under the influence, also remarked that she doesn’t expect a recession. Maybe this is why you should expect one.
Her predictive acumen has missed the target in the past. If you recall, in 2017 she said she did not believe another financial crisis would happen in our lifetime. Since then, we’ve had one financial crisis after another, including the most recent bank failures this spring.
Just this week, Bank of America reported its bond losses in the second quarter increased $7 billion to nearly $106 billion. And Starwood Capital Group just defaulted on a $215.5 million mortgage on an Atlanta office tower. Probably nothing to worry about, right?
In addition, this week Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the mega chip maker, reported its first profit drop in 4 years. Revenue slipped 10 percent from a year ago. What’s more, net income fell 23.3 percent. Wasn’t AI supposed to drive silicon wafer production to commanding heights?
With respect to what Yellen called ‘encouraging inflation data’. While under the influence, she was likely referring to the recent CPI report from the BLS, which showed that in June, consumer prices increased at an annualized rate of 3 percent. This is still 50 percent higher than the Fed’s arbitrary inflation target.
Moreover, the energy commodities component showed a 16.7 percent price decline over the last year. This has coincided with President Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low. Without these short-sighted actions, the current inflation data would be much less encouraging.
Structural Crisis
In short, the U.S. economy’s prospects do not quite align with Yellen’s positive outlook. And if you look out further than just the current data reports, you’ll be greeted with a structural crisis of significant consequence.
In fact, simple arithmetic quickly reveals the precarious predicament the 118th Congress is putting the American people in.
The Treasury Department, the agency Yellen oversees, recently reported that for the first 9 months of the 2023 fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of nearly $1.4 trillion. That’s a 170 percent increase from the same period last year.
The big surprise, however, was that interest on Treasury debt securities for the first 9 months of FY2023 topped $652 billion. A 25 percent increase for this period a year ago.
Rapid and repeated interest rate hikes by the Fed to contain the raging price inflation of its own making, has blown out the interest owed on Treasury debt. Anyone with half an inkling knew this was coming from miles away.
The growth of federal debt has been out of control for decades. But the rate of debt growth in the 21st century has rapidly accelerated.
The solution that’s commonly offered by the politicians for getting a handle on Washington’s debt problem is for the economy to somehow grow its way out. Countless policies over the years have generally involved borrowing money from the future and spending it today.
Yet economic growth never manages to outpace the debt increases. Instead, the debt piles up higher and higher with each passing year. The simple fact is you can’t grow your way out of debt when the debt’s increasing faster than gross domestic product (GDP).
For example, in 2000 the federal debt was about $5.6 trillion, and U.S. GDP was about $10 trillion. Today, the federal debt is over $32.5 trillion, and GDP is about $26.5 trillion. In just 23 years the federal debt has increased by over 480 percent while GDP has increased just 165 percent.
How Washington Ruined America’s Future
Recently, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation attempted to characterize the $32 trillion federal debt. The number is so large it is difficult to comprehend. Here is some of what the foundation came up with:
The $32 trillion debt is more than the combined values of the economies of China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. It represents $244,000 per household or $96,000 per person in America. And if every household contributed $1,000 per month towards paying down the national debt it would take over 20 years.
Without question, Washington has run up an impossible tab. Yet, what does it have to show for all this recklessness?
America’s cities are decaying from the inside out. The infrastructure is crumbling. The country has been involved in one overseas quagmire after another. And the populace is struggling with gender identification pronouns.
The political will to stop this massive debt pileup has been nonexistent. Democrats and Republicans have both spent like drunken sailors. There’s been no tradeoffs or compromises to cut spending. There’s been zero effort to balance the budget. And now it’s too late.
As mentioned above, interest on Treasury debt securities for the first 9 months of FY2023 topped $652 billion – a 25 percent increase from a year ago. But this is just the beginning.
As interest rates continue to rise, the annual interest on Treasury debt will soon pass $1 trillion. That would put this line item at par with outlays for Social Security, the U.S. government’s largest expenditure.
This would also put spending on interest payments above the combined spending of research and development, infrastructure, and education.
Consequently, by repeatedly borrowing and spending money, piling up massive debt, and then being forced to jack up interest rates, Washington has ruined America’s future.
Yippee! Look Ma, no hands! The face of America decline: Former Fed Chair Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen who is now our woefully inept Treasury Secretary. You know, the Treasury Secretary who bowed three times to a Chinese Communist Party leader.
A reminder of the pickle that our politicians have put us in. US Federal debt is at $32.62 TRILLION … and UNFUNDED LIABILITIES (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc) are at $192.5 TRILLION!!! Yes, the US economy is broken beyond hope of repair, yet dunce voters keep reelecting imbeciles like Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, John McConnell, etc.
Jared Bernstein was VP Joe Biden’s former Chief Economist and is now chair of the United States Council of Economic Advisers. Pretty impressive! Except that Bernstein is not really an economist. He has a PhD in social welfare from Columbia University. In other words, Bernstein is a Progressive Marxist cheerleader, not a real economist. Perfect for The Biden Adminstration where they installed a small town Mayor with no experience (Buttigieg) as Transportation Secretary.
BERNSTEIN: “Yes, it depends on what your benchmark is.”
Bernstein’s answer reminds me of the infamous reply of President Clinton about having sex in the Oval Office with Monica Lewinsky: “It depends on what the definition of sex is.”
Well, Jared, here is the data.
Since January 2021, regular gasoline prices are up 57% under Biden’s and Bernstein’s Reigns of Error. CRB Foodstuffs are up 55% under Clueless Joe and Diesel prices 50% under Bully Biden. Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves is DOWN -46% under Hidin’ Biden.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve has inverted to -102.45 as it does prior to a recession. I would love to hear “economist” Jared Bernstein explain that!
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index fell to -0.32 in June. That is negative readings for 6 of the last 8 months.
The Fed still hasn’t removed its monetary stimulypto from the market.
The Federal Reserve, an organization that even George Orwell would find outrageous, is a Minsky Moment Machine!
A Minsky Moment refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. Minsky Moment crises generally occur because investors, engaging in excessively aggressive speculation, take on additional credit risk during bull markets.
And since Covid and the Great Monetary Expansion to fight it helped creates massive inflation and helps the 1% get wealthier and wealthier. BUT as M2 Money growth slows, the 1% are losing their position as top dogs in the economy. Not by much (see pink circle), but a little.
And The Federal Reserve helps create the monetary expansion through low rate policies, fueling credit and asset bubble expansion. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen were the masters at creating a Minsky Moment (named after Hymen Minsky, the late Washington University of St Louis economist).
Then we have the latest bit of bad news. US Industrial Production year-over-year of -0.43% as M2 Money growth evaporates.
After The Fed’s insertion of massive monetary in 2008, continued stimulus until the second massive stimulus burst in 2020, unfunded liabilities of pension funds have worsened. Another possible Minsky Moment created by the Kafkaesque Fed. Kafedesque??
The Fed’s Powell: Let’s play a game … and make the 1% even wealthier!!!
The Fed. The beauty of failure. When the economy starts failing, The Fed goes wild.
Yes, one of the cornerstones of Bidenomics is the massive expansion of (impractical) electric vehicles (or EVs). You know, those mondo expensive cars that run out of power after a couple of hundred miles requiring a lengthy recharge (kind of makes long distance trips the domain of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars.
But as Biden/Congress spent trillions on green energy (massive subsidies for anything green), we noticed that 1) inflation hit 40 year highs and 2) The Fed intervened to raise rates. So, now we see that 60-month auto loan rates are now around 7.36%, up 74.4% under “Middle Class Joe.”
And we see used EV prices collapsing like a week-old soufflé.
Speaking of green energy fraud, here is the leader of the green energy fraud movement, John F’ing Kerry. Aka, Heinz Planes Grifter.
Auto loan rates are now up to 7.65%, a gut-wrenching 166% increase under Bidenomics.
Average monthly payments also reached a new record of $733. That compares with $730 in the first quarter and $678 in the second quarter of 2022. Buyers were financed with an average APR of around 7.1%, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2007.
2 out of every 3 consumers who agreed to a $1,000+ monthly payment in Q2 signed up for an average APR between 8.5% and 9.6%. (via Edmunds).
As for buyers who took on $1,000 monthly auto payments, about 65% of them had an average loan-term range of 67 months and 84 months, their average APR rate was between 8.5% and 9.6%.
Bidenomics. Crushing the soul of America’s middle class and low wage workers.
I love how the most secure building in Washington DC with cameras 24/7 EVERYWHERE and the Secret Service claims they don’t know who left the cocaine on a table. I will bet they pin the blame on VP Kamala Harris as an excuse to replace her word salads for the 2024 Presidential election.
What is Bidenomics? It isn’t what Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre thinks. She said Biden hates “trick down economics”. Instead, Biden prefers a Soviet-style command economy where The Federal Government spends trillions of dollars and directs where the money goes. We also have the Socialist Federal Reserve that relies on rate manipulation to achieve policy results.
A good example of Biden’s Soviet-style “Bidenomics” is his use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Biden has now drained almost 50% of the SPR from when he was sworn in as President. And has drained the SPR for 14 straigth weeks to manipulate gasoline and diesel fuel prices in an effort to lower fuel prices ahead of the 2024 Presidential election. Watch Biden suddenly stop caring about fuel prices once he wins reelection!
After last week’s huge draw, expectations were for a smaller draw (which API showed last night), but the actual crude draw was smaller – just 1.5mm barrels. Stocks at the Cushing hub fell 400k barrels and products also saw notable draws..
At least we now know who left cocaine in the White House!
The good news (if true)? ADP announced that 497k jobs were added in June.
The bad news? A 497k print on jobs (many seasonal, it is summer!) almost guarantees that The FOMC (Fed Open Market Committe) will raises rates again at at the July meeting.
The 2-year Treasury yield is up over 10 basis points.
The 2-year Treasury yield is up 16.5 basis points.
Bticoin Cash is up 10% today.
I should have bought nickel!
Why is Biden sending Treasury Secretary Janet “The Marxist Midget” Yellen to China? A Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chair? Likely trying to convince China that our $32 TRILLLION AND GROWING national debt is not a problem, since China is the third largest holder of US Treasury debt (after The Fed and Japan). Note that China has decreased its holdings of US Treasuries by -25.6% since January 2018.
Hopefully, Yellen isn’t acting as a bag man for The Biden Crime Family. 10% for The Big Guy?? How much does Yellen get??
Joe Biden, or “Blow Biden” after the cocaine was discovered in the White House the other day, owns the abysmal mortgage and housing market thanks to The Fed fighting inflation caused by Bidenomics (massive Federal spending and massive Fed stimulus).
Mortgage applications decreased 4.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 30, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Here is the rest on the story:
As liquidity dries up under Bidenomics. Or Yellenomics. Take your pick!
Seriously, can The Biden Administration get any more embarrassing? Or dangerous to American civil liberties?
As Powell and The Gang raise interest rates, the more the economy is … slip slidin’ away. US Manufacturers New Orders YoY in May declined -1.0% for the first time since Covid.
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