Wasting Away In Bidenville! US Mortgage Demand Rises 3.7% Since Last Week (WoW), But Mortgage Purchase Demand Remains -28% Lower Than Last Year (YoY) While Mortage Refi Demand Is -51% Lower

Wasting away again in Bidenville. Nibblin’ on ice cream. Watching the economy boil. Particularly mortgage demand.

Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 21, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 28 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Recession Alert! Philly Fed Crashes To -22.8 For April (Slippin’ Into Darkness)

The US economy is slippin’ into darkness.

The Philly Fed NBOS General Business Activity Region Diffusion Index SA crashed to -22.8 in April.

And today’s Fed Funds Futures data points to a return of The Bernanke/Yellen “Low Rider” policy for rate management.

Why can’t the corporate media, AOC and Tucker Carlson be friends?

Slowdown! Case-Shiller Home Price Index Slows To Almost 0% YoY As Fed Pulls Out (SF Down -10% YoY, Seattle Down -9.3%, Miami Up +10.8%)

The US housing market is experiencing a slowdown as The Fed withdraws it outragous monetary stimlus.

The Case-Shiller 20 metro house price index grew at a rate of 036% year-over-year (YoY) in February.

Drifting into darkness, we have the West getting battered with my old hometown of San Francisco leading the pack at -10% YoY with Seattle down -9.3% YoY.

You know things are bad out west when Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago are gaining ground in prices. And Miami was up 10.8% YoY.

In The Garden Of Biden! US Wage Growth Is Above Home Price Growth For First Time Since Trump (But NOT After Controlling For Inflation) Biden Goes Crazy On Mortgage Rules!

In the garden of Biden, not all is well for housing and the mortgage market.

It has been a tough road for the US economy since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Error. For the first time since July 2020 under President Trump, we have finally seen average hourly earnings growth YoY exceed average home price growth YoY.

In REAL terms (after substracting out headline inflation), we see that US housing market is still plagued by 24 straight months of negative wage growth with REAL wage growth still being lower than REAL home price growth.

Then we have Biden’s Marxist mortgage model, making those who who saved and showed care in managing their credit score given money to those who didn’t save and are terrible at financial management. Just like taxpayers trusting DC bureaucrats to carefully spend their money.

Biden’s new theme? “Let’s go crazy!”

Gov’t Gone Wild! The Biden Administration’s Budget Hypocrisy, Federal Spending Out Of Control (What About The $187 TRILLION In UNFUNDED Liabilities?)

James Carter (no, not Mr. Peanut, the smart one at America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Prosperity) had a nice op-ed on American Thinker entitled “The Biden Administration’s Budget Hypocrisy.”

The Biden administration’s claims of deficit reduction come in stark contrast to the president and his team, having added $4.8 trillion to the deficit through 2031.

You might call anyone uttering such claims a hypocrite. As Adlai Stevenson, the grandfather of the future Illinois governor and two-time presidential candidate of the same name, reportedly quipped: “A hypocrite is the kind of politician who would cut down a redwood tree, then mount the stump and make a speech for conservation.” Sounds about right.

Why does this matter? It matters because President Joe Biden fancies himself a champion of deficit reduction. As he bragged in a “60 Minutes” interview last month, “By the way, we’ve also … reduced the deficit by $350 billion my first year. This year, it’s going to be over $1.5 trillion, reduced the debt.”

But the president’s attempts to redefine his reckless spending as deficit reduction don’t end there. According to The Washington Post, “Just in the week before the 60 Minutes interview, the president mentioned having reduced the budget deficit by $350 billion six times, sometimes saying he wants to counter accusations that he’s running up the federal tab.” (emphasis added)

What the president fails to mention, however, is that this near-term deficit reduction has nothing to do with him or his administration. Instead, it’s the result of emergency COVID-19 spending that is now ending as planned.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, points out what the Biden administration is loath to admit:

“The White House has been trying to paint President Biden as the champion of prudent economic stewardship. Biden’s ‘record on fiscal responsibility is second to none,’ it asserts. As temporary covid measures end — and record-high deficits predictably decline — the administration is congratulating itself for that supposed achievement.

But the administration’s record is, sadly, the opposite of what it argues. Since entering office, the president has approved policies adding $4.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. This is an extraordinary sum, which makes it all the more astonishing that the administration would try to pull off this claim.”

According to the Office of Management and Budget, even if the 117th Congress had enacted the Biden administration’s fiscal year 2023 budget in its entirety, net interest costs would more than triple from $352 billion in 2021 to $1.1 trillion by 2032. Is a tripling of future net interest costs something typically associated with an administration committed to tackling the federal budget deficit? No.

President Biden’s rhetoric aside, his mid-session budget review forecasts endless $1 trillion-plus annual deficits totaling more than $14 trillion over the coming decade. Even adjusted for inflation, these deficits would be among the largest ever generated by the federal government. Is that “fiscally responsible?” No.

President Biden is not serious about reducing the deficit. He claims progress on the deficit but obscures the facts that every American should know.

Not only does President Biden fail to try to balance the budget, but he actively pursues policies that he must know will balloon federal spending and deficits.

No, but Biden and Congress are serious about bankrupting the US Treasury and moving to a Socialist model.

And what even James Carter doesn’t mention is the staggering levels of UNFUNDED LIABILITIES of $187 TRILLION. The question for Biden is …. how are deficits and the massive debt going to play out when we are on the hook for $187 TRILLION?

I am sure that Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and The Squad will suggest much higher taxes to cover it. And remember, Biden was the idiot that helped taxed Social Security for seniors. And he has also worked towards cutting Social Security and Medicare in the past.

The only out is 1) default on the US debt which would be catestophic and 2) renegging on the massive unfunded liability load. Remember, France is rioting over raising their retirement age by 2 years. Let’s see if Americans riot over inevitable cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

Cut mandatory spending without riots? Please.

The theme song of Biden’s insane, economy destroying, inflation creating budget should be “Keep on printing!”

Yes, this is Government Gone Wild! But no pics or videos of ancient Congress members like Warren or President Biden, please.

Life Under Biden! US Sovereign Risk, US Debt Roar To Record Highs As Inflation Remains High … In One Chart!

This is life under Joe Biden. Record sovereign risk, record high debt, near 40-year highs in inflation, a hot war in Ukraine with Russia, failure of DOJ/FBI to do anything about the content of Hunter Biden’s laptop, repression of free speech, soaring crime, out of control borders. Should I keep going? It is a disastrous mess created by Obama/Biden and their creepy allies.

US sovereign risk just hit 130, the highest since CDS was recorded. This alligns with Biden/Congress massive borrow and spend policies where Federal debt has soared to it highest level in history. Inflation, while cooling, remains high.

On the housing front, REAL national home price growth is negative which makes sense since REAL average hourly wage growth has been negative for the last 24 months.

And just over the past year, commericial bank deposits are falling like a paralyzed falcon.

Biden and Obama’s chief hack in the White House, Susan Rice, are burning down the house.

And she was.

Crazy Train! US Existing Home Sales Crash To -22% YoY, Median Price Growth Goes Negative As Inventory For Sale Remains MIA (20 Straight Months Of Negative Home Sales)

We are on the Biden/Fed crazy train!

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell -2.4% in March from February. And fell -21.97% since the same time last year (YoY).

And the median price of existing home sales fell -0.9% in March, the first negative growth since 2012.

This is like a Hardy Boys novel.

Recession Alert! Philly Fed Business Survey Slumps To Worst Since The Great Recession Of 2008/2009 As Fed Retreats

Well, it is not always sunny in Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Fed Business Survey just crashed and burned to the worst reading since The Great Recession of 2008/2009.

Alarm! The Fed is expected to raise rates two more times before capitulating and lowering rates … again.

Between Biden’s “Reign of Error” and The Fed, I feel like I am living in the horror flick “Cabin In The Woods.”

The Biden Administration and Fed Board of Governors.

US Mortgage Demand Declines -8.8% Since Last Week As Mortgage Rates Rise 2.06% WoW, Purchase Mortgage Demand Down -36% YoY, Refi Mortgage Demand Down -56% YoY

It’s only mid April and mortgage demand should be approaching it’s yearly high. But under Biden and The Fed, mortgage demand seems to have peaked earlier than normal. It’s already late in mortgage cycle.

Mortgage applications decreased 8.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 14, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 36 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Here are the numbers. And lousy they are.

Give me an F. Give me an E. Give me a D. What’s that spell? FED!

Jerome, are you kidding?

Out Of Time? US Credit Default Swap 1Y Breaches 100 As US Treasury Curve Remains Inverted And M2 Money Growth Crashes

The US is beginning to be out of time for agreeing on a debt limit increase. But you don’t need a fortune teller to tell you that Biden and McCarthy will eventually agree to increase the US debt limit because everyone in Washington DC love to borrow and spend money. Regardless, we are seeing the 1-year US Credit Default Swap (SR, EUR) rise above 100, higher than during the 2008/2009 financial crisis.

This is occuring as the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains inverted and M2 Money growth has crashed.

But never fear! The Evil Hobbitt (aka, Janet Yellen) is still US Treasury Secretary. You know, the one who left interest rates too low for too long (TLFTL) as Federal Reserve Chair, then tightened as soon as Donald Trump was elected President.