Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Plunged To -3.90 In January (Consumers Suffering Under Bidenomics With Food Prices UP 21% Under Biden, Diesel Fuel Prices UP 90%)

Confidence! It’s what consumers DON’T have under Bidenomics.

For the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January’s was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022. And Conference Board Consumer Confidence was DOWN to -3.90 in January, the worst since Feb 2022.

It really isn’t surprising the consumer confidence stinks. Food prices (CPI) are UP 21% under Vacation Joe Biden. Diesel fuel prices are UP 90% under Listless Joe.

Well, Biden’s appearance on (unfunny) Seth Myer’s Late Night Show certainly didn’t make me feel more confident about America’s future.

Washington DC’s Reverse Robin Hood Model: Steal From The Middle Class And Bottom 50% And Give To The Elites (The New Forgotten Man)

Robin Hood is a legendary heroic outlaw originally depicted in English folklore and subsequently featured in literature, theatre, and cinema. Traditionally depicted dressed in Lincoln green, he is said to have stolen from the rich to give to the poor. Politicians have created the new “Forgotten Man” by Amity Shlaes.

However, politicians like Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell are “reverse Robin Hoods” dressed in business suits (although Jamie Raskin D-MD is often seen wearing a bandana and John Fetterman D-PA is often seen in a hoodie and shorts). They instead enact policies that steal from the middle class and give to themselves and the donor class. How do you think that politicians like the Bidens, Obama, Clintons and AOC go in broke and emerge as multi-millionaires?

Part of the problem with the reverse Robin Hood model is the Federal Reserve itself. They helped punish the 99% with inflation due to excessive money printing. The share of total net worth held by the top 1% has exploded since The Fed’s rate cuts following the 2001 recession. The Fed has never lowered rates since to levels we saw prior to the 2001 recession, although The Fed is getting close.

Then we have the green energy hysteria (which like pornography excites the brain and distorts logical thinking). Wealthy donors have received a massive windfall (along with China) from Biden/Congress’s green energy spending (scam). The middle class and low-wage workers are now playing higher utility bills (sacrificial lambs on the altar of global warming … or cooling) along with seeing gasoline and diesel prices far higher than before Biden was elected. Gasoline prices are up 46.25% under Biden and diesel prices are up 55.6%.

I like this chart of the distribution of household wealth by income group. The top 1% (the elite Pelosi class, are getting wealthier and wealthier. The 90-99% group are doing well, but not as well as the top 1%. The bottom 50% (who the Washington DC elite class seems to have forgotten about)

Here is a table of the same data.

Then we have the exploding mortgage rates under Biden. Rates are up over 155% under Old Grandad Joe Biden. Another shot through the heart of the middle class. And Washington DC is to blame.

Speaking of Washington DC millionaire elites, I want to share this picture with you. Hillary Clinton is NOT Robin Hood but an example of a REVERSE Robin Hood.

Another Biden Program Bites The Dust! Ford Halts 2024 F-150 Lightning Shipments (Jan Car And Light Truck Sales Down -0.7% YoY As M2 Money Growth Remains Negative)

Another Biden program bites the dust, this time his big push to encourage everyone to buy an electric vehicle (EV). Meanwhile, Biden keeps going on vacation (as if he REALLY cares about middle America).

Cars and light trucks are seeing declining YoY sales in January (-0.7%) as M2 Money growth remains negative.

Automotive News was the first to report Ford Motor Co. halted shipments of all 2024 F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks for an undisclosed quality control issue just weeks after slashing production volumes for the EV model due to sliding demand. 

A Ford spokesperson did not explain the reasons behind the quality check, but shipments of Lightnings have been halted since Feb. 9. Even with shipments paused, production of the Lightnings continues at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan. 

“We expect to ramp up shipments in the coming weeks as we complete thorough launch quality checks to ensure these new F-150s meet our high standards and delight customers,” company spokeswoman Emma Bergg wrote in a statement. 

Last month, Ford announced plans to slash the Lightning production in April “to achieve the optimal balance of production, sales growth and profitability.”

The automaker (and many others, like Mercedes Benz) is recalibrating its electric vehicle strategy as the Biden administration plans to downshift the EV transition as demand plummets.

Thousands of auto dealers nationwide recently warned the ‘climate change warriors’ in the White House: the 2030 EV push is backfiring. 

“Currently, there are many excellent battery electric vehicles available for consumers to purchase. These vehicles are ideal for many people, and we believe their appeal will grow over time. The reality, however, is that electric vehicle demand today is not keeping up with the large influx of BEVs arriving at our dealerships prompted by the current regulations. BEVs are stacking up on our lots,” the dealers said. 

They warned: “Already, electric vehicles are stacking up on our lots which is our best indicator of customer demand in the marketplace.” 

A recent note by RBC analyst Tom Narayan said the EV slowdown is far from over:

“Key takeaways thus far from earnings season are that the EV slowdown is not showing any evidence of an inflection, Level 4 autonomy headwinds continue to persist, and fears over supplier inventory overbuild are likely overblown.

Analyst Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley suggested consolidation is coming to the industry:

Given that Biden’s 2030 EV mandate is in full collapse, the downturn in the EV space will likely continue through the second half of this year. 

Oddly, Biden’s push for chip manufacturing has worked (at least Nancy Pelosi made over $1 million on NVIDIA). I am so glad the Biden/Congress are making Pelosi even wealthier. /sarc

Biden and Pelosi, two honorary Venezuelan plutocrats.

Bidenomics At Work! Interest On Federal Debt Higher Than Bloated Defense Spending, Biden Ignores Supreme Court And Forgives $1.2 Billion In Student Loan Debt (Cabbage Rolls And Coffee For Us, Wagyu Beef And Champagne For The 1%)

I remember the joke made by Jay Leno about Obama. Go to a McDonalds and order whatever you want and give the bill to the person behind you. Unfortunately, that is the Democrat playbook under Obama/Biden (hereafter termed “O’Biden”). For example, Biden is bragging about forgiving student loan debt relief in the amount of $1.2 Billion in student debt for roughly 153,000 borrowers. And bragging that he is ignoring the US Supreme Court like a banana republic dictator. Like the Jay Leno “joke,” SOMEONE has to pay for this election year vote pandering. But that is the beauty/tragedy of BIG government. It is so big and the numbers so monstrous that many kind of shrug and go “eh.” But someone pays and its the middle class in the form of taxes and inflation.

Who is going to pay for the 10 million illegal immigrants that have crossed the southern border under Biden? While Paul Krugman points to a higher GDP from immigration (illegals still buy goods and services), but mostly are a deadweight drag on social services such as welfare, Medicare, schools, healthcare system, etc.). And of course migrant crime is going off the charts. Who pays for Biden’s border fiasco? The middle class and low wage workers, of course. Elites benefit from uncontrolled immigration, generally live in compounds with private security that the rest of us can’t afford. Remember President Carter and the Cuban Mariel boat lift where Fidel Castro emptied his prisons and sent them to Florida creating absolute mayhem and a huge spike in crime? Biden and Cuba Pete Mayorkas turning up the heat on immigration and its accompanied crime wave.

O’Biden loves to spend other people’s money. Aka, OUR money. Case in point. According to the CBO, net interest on the exploding Federal debt under O’Biden now exceeds our defense spending and that gap is expected to explode. To be sure, the US is funding billions in the middle east, handing over billions to Zelensky and Ukrainian oligarchs, and we have China. What a mess!

So, when will “Billions Biden” stop spending other people’s money? Well, only a barely-held Republican House can stop Biden. Meanwhile I will focus on soaring food prices and eat cheap cabbage rolls and drink coffee. Until Biden kills off those pleasures.

But don’t worry! We might get Gavin Newsom, the ultimate used car salesman, to replace Biden against Trump. But Biden’s ego is so massive (why I have no idea) that he won’t go down without a fight. And what about Cacklin’ Kamala?

That’s Bidenomics! US Leading Indicators Decline For 22nd Straight Month, Back To March 2006 Levels

That’s Bidenomics for you!

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in January, dropping 0.4% MoM (notably worse than the -0.1% MoM expectations), and December’s 0.1% declin e was revised down to a 0.2% decline.

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices (again) at +0.10
  • The biggest negative contributor was average workweek at -0.18

This is the 22nd straight MoM decline in the LEI (and 23rd month of 25) –  equaling the longest streak of declines since ‘Lehman’ (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008)

“The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

“While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024).

As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead.

While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.”

While the Conference Board seems optimistic, we are struggling to see any signs of hope! tumbling back below the peak in March 2006…

And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 7.0% (down YoY for 19 straight months) – still close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse (but starting to inflect)…

The annual growth rate of the LEI remains deeply negative and decoupled from Real GDP…..

Finally, the massive easing of financial conditions in the last few months suggests a turn in LEI is imminent…

And hence the ‘soft landing’ mission is accomplished… so no need for rate-cuts? (Except for the banking crisis that looms in March).

Here is the roadmap for Bidenomics.

The Sisyphus Economy! Top 1% Of Earners Gaining Wealth Relative To Middle Class Thanks To The Federal Reserve And Federal Government Policies (Top 1% Have More Wealth Than The Middle Class)

According to mythology, Hades made King Sisyphus roll a huge boulder endlessly up a steep hill in Tartarus. Unfortunately, the modern day version of Sisyphus is the middle class pushing a boulder endlessly up a steep hill while the top 1% (the elite class) horde more and more wealth.

An example of the Sisyphus economy? The top 1% of earners (blue line) have seen an incredible increase in net worth, particularly after Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s big rate cuts (green line) from 2000 to 2004. Each subsequent rate cuts under Bernanke (2007-2008) and Yellen (who just kept rates too low for too long). The end result? In the red box, the top 1% made out like bandits.

The end result? The top 1% of earners now have more wealth the the middle class.

Of course, asinine Federal government policies (like open borders and making donors wealthy with green energy spending) and the lack of a serious approach to corruption have complicated matters.

So the working class, middle class and low wage workers, are the ones pushing the boulder up a hill while government insiders like Biden make millions through influence peddling. So, unlike the Sisyphus legend, the middle class and low wage workers are being punished by simply existing.

The Fed’s balance sheet has had a similar effect, particularly since the financial crisis of 2007-2008 when The Fed truly became unhinged under Janet Yellen. So of course, Yellen was made Secretary of Treasury, the largest honey pot in the world, so she could continue growing the elites power while minimizing the wealth of all others.

Should we end The Fed? Of course! But we can’t even have a rational discussion on why we are funding a war in Ukraine (to protect their border?) while we leave our borders open to invasion?

Here is one of the 1% who made a fortune by simply having a big mouth and being in politics.

Biden’s EXPENSIVE Super Bowl Shuffle! (Tickets As Much As $107k, Hotels At $1,500+ Per Night, Sirloin Steak UP 15% YoY)

Remember the Chicago Bears’ “Super Bowl Shuffle”? Well, Joe Biden is thedemented (according to Hur) shuffler so a Super Bowl shuffle video featuring Biden talking about how he is reducing prices.

Attending the Super Bowl in person has long been a lavish expense, reserved for those willing to part with a significant sum for the ultimate fan experience. But when the Kansas City Chiefs meet the San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas on Sunday, February 11 for the 58th such championship, it will be the most expensive yet.

Stubhub is reporting tickets ranging from $5,300 to $107,000, with the average price paid around $9,500. (Ticketmaster and other estimates vary slightly.) That is a 93 percent increase in ticket prices from last year’s Super Bowl in Phoenix, Arizona, and 300 percent over the past ten years. Lodging prices are skyrocketing as well

A week out from kickoff, rooms at five-star hotels like the Bellagio, Aria, and The Venetian started at $1,500 or more per night for Super Bowl weekend, according to Expedia. Travelers seeking an affordable stay on the Las Vegas Strip, such as at Excalibur, can find an average nightly rate of $88 on Priceline for this weekend. That jumps to $486 during Super Bowl weekend, an increase of 426 percent. Prices do dip a bit if Super Bowl fans want to stay away from the Strip’s hotels and casinos. Downtown and hotels away from the main drag do offer some cheaper options, with some hotels charging around $200 per night on Fremont Street. Circa, which contains one of the most popular sportsbooks in Las Vegas, is an exception. Rooms this weekend are going for $179 per night on Priceline. That shoots up to $1,232 per night, with only a few rooms remaining at that price, for Super Bowl weekend. 

And then, of course, there are the costs of getting there and subsisting. Intrepid drivers looking to travel from San Francisco to Los Angeles (a trip of between 8 and 9 hours) will do so with gasoline prices at $3.66/gallon. That’s down markedly from the mid-2022 spike, but still vastly above levels before the pandemic. Like hotel and ticket prices, airfare into and out of Las Vegas around the big game has also vaulted in price, although a number of carriers have increased capacity to meet surging demand.

Celebrating at Home
Of course, the vast majority of Super Bowl LVIII viewers will not be in Allegiant Stadium, which holds 65,000 spectators. The remainder of viewers, averaging north of 100 million people, will be watching at home or in their hometown sports bars and restaurants. But the persistent inflation of the past three years extended the financial burden into that seemingly more affordable alternative: hosting or attending Super Bowl parties at home. What was once a casual affair of chips, dips, and budget-friendly beverages has transformed into a costly endeavor, as the price of groceries, alcoholic beverages, and even party supplies have surged, affecting the way fans plan to experience one of America’s most iconic sporting events.  

The top Super Bowl snacks and dishes include chicken wings, guacamole, potato skins, and deviled eggs, so a look at the recent price trends in chicken, beef, pork, avocados, eggs, beans, potatoes, eggs and condiments is relevant. Pizzaalcoholic beverages, and soft drinks are other popular choices prices have been creeping up. 

Below are the prices of a handful of foodstuffs and ingredients which feature prominently in Super Bowl festivities,  as well as the price changes from the pre-pandemic period to the most recent data (December 2019 to December 2023). The prices are provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Prices by Product series, not seasonally adjusted:

Dec-19 to
Dec 2019Dec 2023Dec-23
Grade A Large Eggs$1.54$2.5163.30%
White Sugar All Sizes$0.59$0.9662.30%
Price Frozen Concentrate OJ$2.34$3.7259.10%
Coffee$4.05$6.0950.30%
White Bread$1.36$2.0248.50%
All Ham Ex Canned and Slices$3.04$4.4045.00%
Chocolate Chip Cookies$3.58$5.1242.80%
Grapefruits$1.25$1.7841.90%
Potato Chips$4.53$6.4141.40%
Long Grain White Rice$0.71$0.9938.70%
All Uncooked Beef Steaks$7.71$10.6538.10%
Sirloin Steak Boneless$8.48$11.6937.80%
All Other Uncooked Beef ExVeal$5.05$6.9136.70%
Round Roast Choice Boneless$5.07$6.8935.80%
Boneless Ham Excluding Canned$4.07$5.5035.10%
Ground Beef 100% Beef$3.86$5.2134.90%
Fresh Whole Chicken$1.45$1.9634.80%
Whole Wheat Bread$1.96$2.6534.80%
Round Steak Boneless$5.98$7.9933.70%
All Uncooked Beef Roasts$5.54$7.3532.70%
All Other Pork Ex Can/Sliced$2.76$3.6431.80%
Boneless Chicken Breast$3.11$4.0831.10%
Chuck Roast Choice Boneless$5.65$7.3830.70%
All Uncooked Ground Beef$4.30$5.5729.40%
Ice Cream$4.74$6.0226.90%
Processed American Cheese$3.91$4.9626.80%
Ground Chuck$4.07$5.1225.90%
Fresh Fortified Whole Milk$3.19$4.0125.70%
All Pork Chops$3.39$4.2625.50%
All Purpose White Flour$0.43$0.5425.40%
Sliced Bacon$5.47$6.7723.70%
Chicken Legs Bone In$1.51$1.8623.30%
Romaine Lettuce$2.18$2.6823.30%
White Potatoes$0.78$0.9623.20%
Malt Beverages$1.42$1.7523.00%
Boneless Beef for Stew$5.75$7.0322.20%
Lean Ground Beef$5.52$6.6720.90%
Navel Orange$1.33$1.6020.60%
Boneless Chops$3.81$4.5619.80%
Iceberg Lettuce$1.30$1.5317.30%
Spaghetti and Macaroni$1.19$1.3815.80%
Dry Pint Fresh Strawberries$3.10$3.5715.40%
Center Cut Bone In Chops$3.77$4.3314.70%
Dried Beans$1.40$1.5913.60%
Red and White Table Wine$12.04$13.3210.60%
Bananas$0.57$0.639.10%
Natural Cheddar Cheese$5.30$5.554.60%
Lemon$2.00$2.073.60%
Field Grown Tomatoes$1.95$2.002.10%

And although disinflation has proceeded, by their nature the various indices (Consumer Price Index, Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index) obscure individual price changes. For example: the US CPI Urban Consumers Food-at-Home index, in December 2023, showed a year-over-year change of 1.31 percent (from 299.089 to 303.005). Below are the actual December 2022 to December 2023 changes in individual food items which are prominent in Super Bowl celebrations.

Dec-22 to
Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec-23
Price Frozen Concentrate OJ$2.72$3.7236.80%
Sirloin Steak Boneless$10.17$11.6915.00%
White Sugar All Sizes$0.84$0.9613.30%
Round Steak Boneless$7.06$7.9913.20%
All Uncooked Beef Steaks$9.46$10.6512.50%
Round Roast Choice Boneless$6.22$6.8910.70%
Whole Wheat Bread$2.42$2.659.40%
All Uncooked Beef Roasts$6.72$7.359.30%
All Ham Ex Canned and Slices$4.05$4.408.70%
Ground Beef 100% Beef$4.80$5.218.50%
Ice Cream$5.56$6.028.20%
White Bread$1.87$2.028.10%
Navel Orange$1.49$1.607.80%
Chuck Roast Choice Boneless$6.86$7.387.60%
Ground Chuck$4.76$5.127.60%
All Uncooked Ground Beef$5.19$5.577.30%
Fresh Whole Chicken$1.83$1.966.80%
Processed American Cheese$4.66$4.966.30%
All Other Uncooked Beef ExVeal$6.59$6.914.80%
Lean Ground Beef$6.39$6.674.50%
All Purpose White Flour$0.52$0.543.10%
Chocolate Chip Cookies$4.97$5.122.90%
Boneless Ham Excluding Canned$5.37$5.502.40%
Boneless Beef for Stew$6.87$7.032.20%
Potato Chips$6.28$6.412.00%
Long Grain White Rice$0.97$0.992.00%
White Potatoes$0.95$0.961.40%
Malt Beverages$1.74$1.750.70%
Boneless Chops$4.56$4.560.00%
All Other Pork Ex Can/Sliced$3.64$3.640.00%
Bananas$0.63$0.63-0.50%
Lemon$2.09$2.07-0.90%
All Pork Chops$4.31$4.26-1.30%
Red and White Table Wine$13.66$13.32-2.50%
Sliced Bacon$6.96$6.77-2.60%
Spaghetti and Macaroni$1.43$1.38-4.00%
Chicken Legs Bone In$1.95$1.86-4.60%
Fresh Fortified Whole Milk$4.21$4.01-4.80%
Coffee$6.47$6.09-5.80%
Boneless Chicken Breast$4.35$4.08-6.10%
Dried Beans$1.70$1.59-6.40%
Dry Pint Fresh Strawberries$3.86$3.57-7.30%
Center Cut Bone In Chops$4.67$4.33-7.40%
Natural Cheddar Cheese$6.00$5.55-7.50%
Field Grown Tomatoes$2.23$2.00-10.50%
Romaine Lettuce$3.57$2.68-24.80%
Grade A Large Eggs$4.25$2.51-41.00%

Avocado prices, according to the Mexico Products CPI, have risen 27.2 percent from December 2019 (83.80) to December 2023 (106.554). From December 2022 (95.922) to December 2023, they rose 11.1 percent. 

Determining the average price of a delivery pizza is more difficult. In local contexts, the price of a slice of pizza can act as an inflationary benchmark of sorts, but estimates indicate that from February 2023 to February 2024 the price of an average delivery pizza has increased from $17.81 to $18.33, or 2.9 percent. 

Comparing these numbers with the year-over-year headline and core CPI numbers (3.4 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively), two significant insights emerge. The individual price changes above, over a four- and one-year period, frequently underscore how price indices obscure trends in prices which, at specific times can be considerably graver than the headline figures suggest. Second, that one needn’t be anywhere near Las Vegas to feel the damage of expansionary monetary policies acutely. Well over a year after the lies about Vladimir Putingas station ownersocean shippers, and corporate profits have been told and forgotten, and despite the cynical political impudence of calling a massive green spending bill an “Inflation Reduction Act,” spending Super Bowl Sunday at home in 2024 will be much more expensive than it was in 2023, and vastly more than it was four short years ago.

Texas Business Activity Index Falls To Recession-era Reading Of -27.4 (Biden Freezes Natural Gas Exports)

Texas is a state of mind and is currently under invasion. Encouraged by BIG AGRA Senator Lankford (RINO-Oklahoma).

Texas factory activity contracted in January after stabilizing in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dropped 17 points to -15.4—its lowest reading since mid-2020.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction this month. The new orders index ticked down from -10.1 to -12.5 in January, while the growth rate of orders index remained negative but pushed up eight points to -14.4. The capacity utilization index dropped to a multiyear low of -14.9, and the shipments index slipped 11 points to -16.6.

Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in January. The general business activity index fell from -10.4 to -27.4, and the company outlook index fell from -9.4 to -18.2. The outlook uncertainty index held fairly steady at 20.9.

Note that prices paid for raw materials soared by 20.2%.

Meanwhile, The Fed is impressed by the growth in the economy (primarily government jobs) so will likely keep rates constant this week. I wish they would look at Texas slumping!

In apparent retaliation for trying to defend themselves against the mongrel hordes coming from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and … China, Biden freezes natural gas exports (largely from Texas).

In Washington DC, Lankford, Schumer, McConnell and other anti-America, pro-World Economic Forum type gather to destroy the US.

Highway To Hell! Unrealized Losses At US Banks Exploded In Q3 As US Teeters On Full-blown Recession, Thanks To Bidenomics

Bidenomics is America’s Highway To Hell!

Unrealized losses on securities held by US banks exploded by 22% in the third quarter.

Of course, unrealized losses don’t really matter — until they do.

This is yet more evidence that the financial crisis that kicked off last March continues to bubble under the surface.

Unrealized losses, primarily on US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities rose by $126 billion in Q3 and now total $684 billion, according to the FDIC’s quarterly bank data release.

Current unrealized losses are only slightly below the record set in the third quarter of 2022. This reflects the fact that the FDIC took over three failed banks earlier his year and ate their unrealized losses when it sold the banks’ assets, thus wiping them from the books.

Unrealized looses on securities are divided between two accounting methods.

  • Unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities jumped by $81 billion to $391 billion.
  • Unrealized losses on available-for-sale (AFS) securities jumped by $45 billion to $293 billion.

It’s important to understand these are only paper losses. Ostensibly, the banks will hold these bonds until maturity and then will be paid their face value. If it plays out this way, there won’t be any real losses.

The problem is that these unrealized losses drastically decrease a bank’s liquidity. If it has to sell bonds in order to raise capital, the bank will experience significant losses. This is exactly what took down Silicon Valley Bank last March.

Here’s what happened.

SVB sold a large portion of its bond portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss. At the time, SVB CEO Greg Becke said the bank made the sale “because we expect continued higher interest rates, pressured public and private markets, and elevated cash burn levels from our clients.”

The bank bought the bonds when interest rates were low. As a result, the $21 billion available for sale (AVS) bond portfolio was not yielding above cash burn. Meanwhile, rising interest rates caused the value of the portfolio to fall significantly. The plan was to sell the longer-term, lower-interest-rate bonds and reinvest the money into shorter-duration bonds with a higher yield. Instead, the sale dented the bank’s balance sheet and caused worried depositors to pull funds out of the bank.

WolfStreet explained more generally how these “irrelevant” unrealized losses can suddenly become relevant.

Banks, via a quirk in bank regulations, don’t have to mark these securities to market value, but can carry them at purchase price. The difference between market value and purchase price is the ‘unrealized gain or loss’ that the bank must disclose in its quarterly financial filings, so that we the depositors can see them and get spooked by them and yank our money out, us billionaires and centimillionaires first, on the two fundamental principles of investing: 1, he who panics first, panics best; and 2, after us the deluge.”

The Federal Reserve set up a bailout program to allow banks to deal with this problem. Instead of selling bonds at a loss, cash-strapped banks can go to the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and borrow against them “at par” (face value). This allows banks to use these undervalued assets to raise cash (at least temporarily) without realizing big losses on their balance sheets.

As unrealized losses rise, banks continue to tap into this bailout program more than nine months after the crisis kicked off.

Total outstanding loans in the BTFP program jumped by just over $5 billion in November alone.

In effect, the Fed managed to paper over the financial crisis with this bailout program.

It basically slapped a bandaid on it. But it has not addressed the underlying issue – the impact of rising interest rates on an economy and financial system addicted to easy money.

Remember, the US is on the cusp of a REAL recession, thank to Bidenomics.

The spread between real GDP and real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) just hit an all-time high. Even higher than The Great Recession of 2009.

Might as well have AC/DC’s Angus Young as US Treasury Secretary instead of tone-deaf Janet Yellen.

Yellen singing “Highway To Beijing.”

Too Much Debt! Interest Payments Rising FAST On US $33.6 TRILLION Debt Load, Bank Losses Mounting As Rates Rise, Mortgage Rate UP 173% Under Biden (At Least Rent Growth Has Turned Negative)

Too much debt!

The Federal Reserve thinks economic growth comes with lots of debt and low interest rates. The Fed succeeded in that banks, consumers and The Federal government went wild in borrowing money, but now a hangover is happening as inflation surged and interest rates rose.

First, debt laden banks.

Paper losses on the most opaque part of US banks’ bond portfolios are now close to $400bn — an all-time high, and 10 per cent above the peak at the start of the year that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Rising interest rates are really causing havoc at banks, particularly small banks. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose again after a brief respite in rate increases.

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF is getting crushed with inflation and Fed rate hikes.

And The Federal government is seeing interest payments on their massive $33 TRILLION debt load. Rising Treasury yields = higher US interest payments on debt … really fast.

And with interest rates rising, Americans are seeing a surge in debt.

With rising Treasury yields, the 30-year conforming mortgage yield is up 173% under Biden’s Reign of Economic Error.

And then we have US Debt Clock, Federal debt is now above $33.56 TRILLION that is causing no consternation for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen who said that the US economy is great and we can afford to fight wars in Ukraine AND Israel! Of course, Yellen believes in the foolish Modern Monetary Theory (aka, just keep printing money and hope nobody cares).

Multifamily rents turned negative in September, with the average U.S. rent declining $6 from August and $3 during the third quarter. It marked the first time since 2009 when national rents decreased in September.

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Hopefully a downturn in rent growth will let buying a home more affordable relative to rent in San Jose, San Francisco, Honolulu, Los Angeles and Seattle.

Headline NAHB confidence index printed at 9-month lows (down 5 to 45, vs 49 exp). That is the 4th straight monthly miss in a row (and 5 upside surprises).

I remember when economists used to say, “Inflation? No problem! Inflation allows us to devalue the massive debt!” Except that inflation crushes the middle class and low wage workers.

Introducing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the actual Nutty Professor who still thinks that the US can spend and borrow unlimited amounts without consequence.