US Economy Adds 263K Jobs In September, REAL Average Hourly Earnings Growth At -3.06% (100 Million NOT In Labor Force)

Yesterday, I told my family “The good news is that Rotolo’s Pizza tastes even better reheated in the morning. The bad news? I ate the only two piece left.”

Which brings me to the September jobs report. The good news is that 263k jobs were added to the US economy. That means 10,521k jobs have been added in the 21 months under Biden! (Bear in mind that 12,100k jobs were added in the 7 months under Trump following the Covid economic shutdown, yet no media outlet trumpeted that accomplishment).

The bad news? While nominal average hourly earnings grew by 5% YoY, when I subtract Bidenflation from that number I get -3.06% growth. Or should I say that REAL wages are shrinking under Biden.

Now for the “Biden Miracle” of jobs being added. Here is a chart of NFP jobs added (white line) against M2 Money and headline inflation. Both The Fed and the Federal government pumped trillions into the economy leading to the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Once governments stopped with their Covid shutdown nonsense, jobs would return regardless of who was President. BUT Federal spending and Fed money printing went off the rails in early 2020.

As Paul Harvey used to say, “Here is the rest of the story.” Labor force participation fell in September and the U-3 unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.5%.

But labor force dropouts increased leading U-3 unemployment to decline. The number of people NOT in the labor force grew to nearly 100 million. Nothing has been the same since Covid.

So what will The Fed do? According to Fed Funds Futures data (WIRP), The Fed will keep raising rates until March ’23 then slowly start lowering interest rates again.

And with that “positive” jobs report, The Dow is down almost -500 points and the NASDAQ is down over -3%.

And with Fed tightening, we are seeing a collapse in M2 money supply.

Everybody Panic! Bloomberg’s Market Pulse Gauge Signals PANIC As The Market Pulse Index Collapses To Great Recession Lows

Everbody panic!

Bloomberg’s market pulse gauge is signalling panic.

The Bloomberg market pulse index quantifies sentiment using 6 factors — price breadth, pairwise correlation, low vol performance, defensive vs. cyclical sector performance, high vs. low leverage performance and high yield spreads.

It’s currently as panicked as in 2008!

Biden Releasing 10 Million More Barrels of Oil From US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (Reserve DOWN -35% Under Biden Before Additional Release, Foodstuffs UP 50%, Heating Oil UP 130%, Gasoline UP 61.4%, Public Debt UP 12%)

Nothing from nothing. The should be the campaign motto for the midterm elections.

What do we have? Regular gasoline prices are UP 61.4% under Biden, the strategic petroleum reserve is DOWN -35% before Biden’s latest release of another 10 million barrels. Foodstuffs are UP 50% under Clueless Joe, and heating oil futures are UP 130% under dementia Joe.

And thanks to free-spending Joe, Nancy and Chuckie, US public debt is at $31.1 TRILLION. That is ANOTHER 12% in national debt under the 4 Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse.

For an additional 12% in national debt (to be paid by our children and grandchildren), we have crippling inflation.

Great job DC!

Down, Down, Down! Challenger Job Cuts Rises 67.6% Following Worst US JOLTS Report Since Covid Outbreak (Conference Board Predicts 96% Probability Of Recession Over Next 12 Months)

Challenger US Job Cut Announcements for September rose 67.6%, the highest since … Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020. This comes after the JOLTS (job openings) fell the most since … Covid-19.

And with rising US job cuts, we are seeing an increase in the probability of a US recession over the next year. But the Conference Board predicts a 96 percent likelihood of a recession in the US within the next 12 months.

Apparently, the US is going down, down, down.

This index quantifies sentiment using 6 factors — price breadth, pairwise correlation, low vol perf, defensive vs. cyclical sector perf, high vs. low leverage perf and high yield spreads.

It’s currently as panicked as in 2008!

JOLT! US Job Openings Plunge To Covid-Lockdown Levels (Will The Fed Notice??)

Ain’t this a kick in the head!

US job openings in August plunged to the grim days of the Covid lockdown. According to the JOLTs numbers, US job openings fell by -1,117.

But will The Fed notice? Or continue their inflation fight??

Wasting Away In Bidenville! Dow Tanks -500 Points On Friday As Fed Reaffirms Their Fight On Bidenflation

My investments are wasting away in Bidenville! Looking for my lost 401k value.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was DOWN -500 points on Friday as The Federal Reserve continues their fight against inflation (green line).

If fact, since January 4, 2022, the Dow is down -22%.

Negative wage growth, relentless inflation, collapsing 401ks, we are wasting away in Bidenville.

Hey Joe! Where is the US economy? With Jackie Walorski??

Wipe Out! $32 TRILLION In Stock Value Wiped Out (US Core Deflator Rises To 4.9% Prompting Taylor Rule Fed Target Rate Of 9.65%, We Are Currently At 3.25%)

Wipe out!

$32 TRILLION of global stock value has been wiped out since December 2021.

Today’s core PCE deflator reading of 4.9% YoY shows that the inflation surge is not over. With a core PCE deflator of 4.9%, the Taylor Rule suggests that The Fed Funds Target Rate should be at 9.65%, far below its current level of 3.25%. So, IFF The Fed is following any sort of rule, rates should continue to soar.

And if we use headline inflation of 8.30% YoY, the Taylor Rule suggests hiking the target rate to 14.75%.

After yesterday’s dismal Q2 report of -0.6%, I fully anticipate a recession. Ain’t this a kick in the … head.

Fire! European Stock Valuations Lowest Since 2012 On Strong King Dollar, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Drops To 0.271% (Bostic Calls For 1.25 MORE Rate Increase)

Fire! European stock valuations have dropped to lowest since 2012.

The US Dollar index is soaring (not helping Europe) as The Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to combat the inflation fire.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real-time forecast for Q3 is at least above zero (barely) at 0.271%.

Fed officials continued to hammer home the central bank’s hawkish outlook, with Atlanta President Raphael Bostic saying he backs raising rates by a further 1.25 percentage points by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China said it will accelerate usage of targeted loans.

Bond volatility is increasing.

The US Treasury 10-year yield was down -20 basis points yesterday and is up +10 basis points today. This is the Fed’s Rollercoaster effect.

The Dow is down another 400 points today as The Fed’s Sugar Rush is ending. Perhaps The Federal Reserve main building in Washington DC should be renamed “The Sugar Shack.”

In related news, apparently the Biden Administration is going to replace Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen with … anybody else??

Meanwhile I will have a bottle of wine to kill the pain of inflation and Fed tightening.

When Temporary Seems Permanent: Overnight Repos Hit All-time High, $2.366 TRILLION (MOVE Bond Volatility Index Near Covid Recession High)

When temporary seems permanent?

Banks get to park money at The Federal Reserve overnight in the form of repurchase agreements (or repos). But as inflation is raging in the US, banks have parked a record $2.366 TRILLION at The Federal Reserve.

The MOVE bond volatility index keeps rising as inflation roars and The Fed fights back,

The US bond volatility index is now almost as high as during the Covid Crisis and approaching financial crisis levels.

US Pending Home Sales PLUNGE -22.5% YoY In August As Fed Continues Panzer-like Assault Against Inflation And Consumers

The scalding inflation rate crippling middle class Americans and low-wage workers is causing The Federal Reserve to take action by finally tightening their monetary policy.

As such we are seeing a rapid decline in the US housing market in terms of sales. For August, pending home sales declined -22.5% YoY as expectations of further Fed rate hikes (blue line) soars. Note that impact of The Fed’s and Federal government “sugar rush” after the Covid outbreak in early 2020 and its impact on pending home sales.

Without the “sugar rush,” pending home sales are dying.

Speaking of a sugar crash, risk parity ETF is down 32% from high.

The culprit? The Federal Reserve’s Panzer onslaught! With its leader, ~~Heinz Wilhelm Guderian~~ Jerome Powell.

The Dow is up 500 points today on the expectation that The Fed will stop tightening in the face of global chaos.

As UK 10yr yields fall -50 BPS!! And US T-10 yield drop -20.8 basis points.

Here is a photo of The Federal Reserve attacking American consumers to reduce inflation caused by Biden’s green energy policies and insane spending by Biden/Pelosi/Schumer.

Will Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell be awarded Panzer assault medals for 1) leaving monetary stimulus too large for too long then 2) suddenly tightening stimulus?