Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
Liquidity is a big deal for the housing and mortgage markets.
Unfortunately, M2 Money YoY (liquidity) is shrinking fast and 1-unit (single family detached) starts dropped -18.5% in September.
This is not surprising given the decline yesterday in the NAHB market index.
Even multifamily (5+ unit starts) were down -13.11% in September.
Well, this isn’t good. But it is consistent with the highest inflation rate in 40 years and The Federal Reserves’ counterattack. Basic mortgage applications are now down to their lowest level since 1997 as mortgage rates rise.
Mortgage applications decreased 4.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 14, 2022.
The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 38 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Bear in mind that these numbers are for the week of October 14, so the home purchase season is in the “house latitudes.” That is, the slow season for home sales. The refinancing applications index has dropped thanks to Fed tightening.
Joe Biden reminds me of Dennis Reynolds from “Its Always Sunny In Philadelphia.” And his D.E.N.N.I.S System. But Biden’s System is blatant politics. With the midterm elections in November and Democrats looking a bit behind, Biden is pulling out the political guns by 1) ramping up student loan forgiveness … again and 2) releasing 10-15 million MORE barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower gasoline prices. Particularly after his failed attempts to get the Saudis to pump more oil (too bad Biden put the kabash on US energy exploration and cancelled the Keystone pipeline).
Having said that, we can see that BEFORE the latest SPR order, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, meant to cope with national emergencies like … Russia dropping a nuke on the US, has declined -36% under Nuclear Joe.
At the same time, regular gasoline prices are UP 62% under Biden and the all-important diesel fuel prices are UP 101.4% under Biden.
Of course, expect The B.I.D.E.N System to do everything in its power to destroy the economy if Republicans win the midterms. Including no more SPR release.
The B.I.D.E.N. System.
A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all time frames, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.
And with that terrible news for the economy, the Fed Funds Futures market is hinting at a March 2023 pivot from The Fed.
The good news? The stock market is up BIG today. Likely because investors feel that the stock market has been oversold. The NASDAQ Composite Index lies beneath the Ichimoku Cloud.
And the NASDAQ is close to the bottom Bollinger Band.
This one’s going to hurt you for a long, long time.
Over the past year, the dollar has been on a tear: The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of foreign currencies, is up 18%. And up 25.2% under 80-year old US President Joe Biden (well, he will be 80 in November).
For tourists, a strong dollar is great news. It means you get more for your money abroad.
But for investors, a beefed-up buck is decidedly bad news.
When the dollar strengthens, that means foreign revenues are going to translate into fewer dollars. Those earnings are going to come in lower and any overseas investment you own is going to hurt you in a rising dollar environment.
It’s beginning to look a lot like winter. Perhaps we should call Biden “Frosty The Snow Man” because it is going to be a miserable winter for the middle class and low wages workers as Biden’s green energy policies sink in.
The US CPI for electricity is up 24% under Nuclear Joe as The Fed continues to leave their balance sheet relatively untouched.
You might have to bail on the stock market to stay warm this winter, but it is a shame that the S&P 500 index is down -25.3% in 2022 as The Fed counterattacks Bidenflation.
When will The Federal Reserve pivot? That is, when can we sing “Here comes Santa Claus”?
According to the Fed Funds Futures data, Santa Claus is expected to return in May 2023 (rate reversal).
The Fed’s Limbo Rock! How low can consumer sentiment for housing go?
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for housing for October just fell to its lowest level since 1992 as The Fed counterattacks against Bidenflation, causing mortgage interest rates to rise.
Of course, despite slowing home price growth, expensive home prices are really hurting along with expensive rents. But how sustainable are high home prices when REAL average hourly earnings growth is negative??
Bidenflation is just killing us. Now rising prices and The Fed’s counterattack are killing retail sales for American consumers.
US retail sales were sluggish last month, suggesting shoppers are becoming more guarded about discretionary purchases in the worst inflationary environment in decades.
The value of overall retail purchases were little changed in September after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, Commerce Department data showed Friday. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were up 0.1%. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.
The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% advance in retail sales.
Seven of 13 retail categories declined last month, according to the report, including a drop in receipts at auto dealers, furniture outlets, sporting goods stores and electronics merchants. The value of sales at gas stations fell 1.4%, reflecting cheaper fuel prices, but they’re now climbing.
At least Export Prices YoY are down below 10%! I hope exporting inflation to the world isn’t Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s idea of good foreign policy.
My favorite headline of the day is “Macron Reminds Biden to Think Before Speaking: “Biden’s Reckless Rhetoric puts World at Risk”“
How about a little Torquay from The Leftovers.
Fed Fireball!
* Fed Swaps Lean Toward Back-to-Back Three-Quarter-Point Hikes
* Hotter-than-expected September inflation data spark shift
(Bloomberg) — The market for wagers on the Federal Reserve’s policy rate is leaning toward pricing back-to-back 75 basis point rate hikes in the next two central bank meetings after consumer prices rose more than forecast in September.
The rate on the November overnight index swap contract rose to 3.86%, more than 75 basis points above the current effective fed funds rate, while the one referring to December climbed to 4.50%. A total of 142 basis points of rate hikes are now priced in for the next two policy meetings, just short of consecutive three-quarter-point hikes.
Prior to the inflation data, OIS markets were leaning toward the central bank cooling the pace of tightening to a 50 basis point move in December. At Wednesday’s close, swaps priced in around 130 basis points of hikes over the remaining of the year, which is equivalent to 55 basis points for December.
The market also priced in a higher eventual peak for the policy rate, with the March 2023 contract touching 4.864%.
The CPI data was “clearly a shock for the markets and the markets are off because of it,” Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley said on Bloomberg television. “There is persistence, particularly in the services side of inflation.”
Excluding food and energy, the Consumer Price Index increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982, Labor Department data showed Thursday. From a month earlier, the core CPI climbed 0.6% for a second straight month.
The Fed has raised its policy rate five times since March, most recently to a range of 3%-3.25% in September, after dropping the lower bound to 0% two years earlier at the onset of the pandemic.
The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing further Fed rate hikes with a turnaround in March 2023.
And with that awful inflation report and the likely Fed counterattack, the two year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.4361%, the highest since The Great Recession and banking crisis.
Fed Fireball! Comin’ at ya!!
Biden and Powell should appear on Saturday Night Live as the joint Debbie Downer. Or Democrat Downer.
The US is movin’ on up, to the dark side, while DC elites live in deluxe apartments in the sky. The US is movin’ on up to the dark side, we finally got a piece of the Banana Republic pie. … And its tastes horrible!
Today, the BLS released its inflation data. And it was terrible.
To begin with, headline inflation remains high at 8.2% YoY while CORE inflation (headline less food and energy) rose to 6.6% YoY.
Meanwhile, REAL average weekly earnings growth YoY further declined to -3.8% YoY.
On the bond front, the Bank of America ICE bond volatility index rose to Great Recession/banking crisis levels (also achieved during the Covid government shutdowns).
But back to the low-ball BLS inflation data. The biggest gain in price is … fuel oil at 33.1% YoY. Food at home rose 13.0% while gasoline rose 18.2%. Rent, according to the BLS, rose 6.6%.
Biden has probably been told by Ron Klain and Susan Rice that this is a good report.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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