Jamie Dimon Warns US Banking Crisis Will Be Felt for Years, Regulators Didn’t Stress Test Rate Hikes! (This One’s Gonna Hurt Us)

JPMorgan Chase’s Jaime Dimon is channeling country crooners Marty Stuart and Travis Tritt by warbling “This One’s Gonna Hurt You (For A Long, Long Time).”

Silicon Valley Bank’s blunders were encouraged by US regulation, went untested by the Federal Reserve and were “hiding in plain sight” until Wall Street and depositors grew alarmed.

That’s JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon’s assessment of the US banking crisis that sent markets careening last month, an episode he predicts is “not yet over” and will be felt for years. He said US authorities shouldn’t “overreact” with more rules.

In his wide-ranging annual letter to shareholders on Tuesday, Dimon described his firm’s aspirations for using artificial intelligence and ChatGPT, weighed in on geopolitics, and provided updates on JPMorgan’s activities in Ohio. This time, many of his sharpest remarks ripped at regulation, including capital rules that pushed banks to binge on low-interest assets that lost value as interest rates shot up.

“Ironically, banks were incented to own very safe government securities because they were considered highly liquid by regulators and carried very low capital requirements,” Dimon said. “Even worse,” he added, the Federal Reserve didn’t stress-test banks on what would happen as rates jumped.

When Silicon Valley Bank’s uninsured depositors realized it was losing money selling securities to keep up with withdrawal requests, they raced to pull their cash. Regulators then intervened and seized it.

Yes. Banking regulators were so focused on credit-exposure of banks (remember the subprime crisis of 2008?) that they really screwed up by having banks load-up on low credit-risk assets that usually have interest rate risk associated with them like Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). What could go wrong?

What went wrong was that interest rates rose and unrealized losses on Treasuries and Agency MBS exploded.

Here is a chart of urealized losses on investment securities that banks have accumulated.

Apparently, The Fed and FDIC (and the myriad of Federal and State regulators) sit high on a mountain top and ignore interest rate risk.

The face of regulatory stupidity.

Recesion Alert? ISM Manufacturing New Orders Sinks To 44.3 In March (Lower Than During Trump) As Count Powellula Sucks Blood From Economy

Not only did the ISM Manfacturimng Report on New Business Order fall to 44.3, but price PAID also fell as The Fed hikes rates (yellow line) and slowing M2 Money growth (green line).

Office REITs are really hurting as Count Powellula sucks the blood (liquidity) from the market.

Count Powellula. “I vant to suck the blood from your economy.”

Faith? Foreign Central Banks Bailing On US Treasuries (Japan And China Among Others Are Fleeing The US Titanic)

Apparently, foreign Central Banks have lost faith in Biden and The Federal Reserve. Foreign Central Banks are selling US Treasuries.

Other than The Fed, Japan and China are the two largest holders of US Treasuries. And they are bailing.

Wake Biden up before all the Central Banks go-go.

Shock OPEC+ Oil Production Cut Puts $100 a Barrel on Horizon, Crude Rises To >$80 On Oil Cartel Snub (Strategic Petroleum Reserve DOWN -42% Under Biden, Diesel Prices UP 64%)

While Resident Biden is on good terms with the Mexican drug and sex trafficing cartels that control our southern border, the oil cartel just stuck their fingers in Biden’s eyes by cutting oil productions. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia was irritated last week that the Biden administration publicly ruled out new crude purchases to replenish SPR

Cartel removes more than 1 million barrels a day from market
Analysts say the decline in oil inventories will accelerate

Today, crude oil futures are up 6.62% to over $80 per barrel.

Sunday’s surprise OPEC+ production cuts have redefined the outlook for crude prices, bringing $100 a barrel back into the frame.

Prior to the announcement, the cartel’s own numbers suggested the group would need to pump more oil, not less, in the second half. With the International Energy Agency expecting a demand surge later this year, there’s now renewed risk of a fresh inflationary impetus for the global economy.

Under Biden’s Reign of Error, diesel prices are up 64% while the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) have been drained by -42%.

St. Benedict, help protect us from Biden and The Federal Reserve.

Sparkless! M2 Money Growth Crashes To -3.13% YoY As Fed Slams On Monetary Brakes To Fight TLFTL (Too Low For Too Long) Policies And Insane Federal Spending Spree (Fed Funds Effective Rate UP >5,000% YoY)

I love how the Supernatural character Dick Roman, a Levianthan, referred to Joe Biden as replaceable and having no spark. BUT Biden, Pelosi and Schumer did go on a historic spending spree helping to create massive inflation (so Biden and the gang did spark inflation).

To show you how Yellen/Powell’s Too Low For Too Long (TLFTL) monetary polices coupled with Biden/Pelosi/Schumer’s (add McConnell to this foul-smelling witches’ brew), Powell and The Gang (aka, The Fed) slammed on the monetary brakes. On a year-over-year basis, M2 Money growth has crashed tl -3.13%. The shocking number is The Fed Fund Effective Rate which rose over 5,000% YoY.

Actually, the US has been on a money printing spree since 1995, but it was Covid spending and monetary expansion in 2020 that crushed M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2).

Here is Supernatural’s Leviathan monster Dick Roman handing an award to sparkless President Joe Biden. But Biden did spark massive inflation that crushed the US middle class and low wage workers.

US Consumer Confidence Dips To 62 In March, Never The Same After Covid And Joe Biden (UMich Buying Conditions For Houses Dips To 47 As Fed Withdraws Stimulus … For The Moment)

Well, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indices are out for March … and they are ugly.

As a baseline, consumer confidence in February 2020 (just before Covid) was 101. After Covid and massive Fed stimulus and Federal government spending spree, consumer confidence in March fell to 62.0, a far cry from 101 under Trump.

Even worse, the UMich buying conditions for housing hit 142 in February 2020 but has declined to 47 in March 2023.

Why would ANYONE have confidence in the US economy under a complete fool with dementia like “China Joe” Biden??

Inflation Slows A Little (Core PCE Price Growth 4.6% YoY) In February, But Remains High Despite Fed Withdrawal (Is US A Failed State?)

Inflation is slowing just a little. But my feeling about The Fed (that partly caused the problem in the first place by keeping rates too low for too long (TLTL) under Yellen is all I can do is laugh.

The US Core Deflator (Personal Consumption Expenditure CORE PRICE Index YoY fell only slightly in February to a still-high 4.6% in February despite The Fed jacking up interest rates and slowing M2 Money growth.

I thought Biden and Congress passed the inflation reduction act??

I forgot. Under Obama/Biden, the US is now a failed state. Or a banana republic without bananas. Way to go Joe!

Turnaround Jay! One Small Rate Hike Expected In May, Then A Turnaround With Fed Rate Cuts To 4.28% (Too Bad Taylor Rules Calls For A Target Rate Of 10.29%)

Turnaround Jay!

Fed Funds Futures are pointing to one more rate hike at the May FOMC meeting, then a turnaround with The Fed cutting its target rate.

Too bad the Taylor Rule is calling for a target rate of 10.29%.

The Fed Funds Target rate (upper bound) is STILL negative at -1.0356%.

Soaring rates to fight inflation is causing unrealized losses to plague US banks.

Like the film, “He Never Died”, The Fed never died. And neither did quantitative easing.

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Revised Downwards To Lowest Print (1%) Under Biden’s Reign Of Error (WARN Notices Rising, Particularly In Large States)

The Covid outbreak in early 2020 (from which I came close to dying) resulted in legendary Fed stimulus and Federal government spending. But as The Fed attempts to cool inflation by slowing M2 Money printing and raising The Fed’s target rate, we are seeing the lowest personal consumption expenditures print under Biden’s reign of error, a measly 1%.

On top of the dismal revision to the Q4, we are seeing WARN notices increasing, particularly for large states. Worker Adjustment and Retraining (WARN) Notices are picking up which points to unemployment claims soon rising and a deterioration in the jobs market, posing a risk to stocks.

Biden’s reign of error continues with horrible policies. With the help of Congress.

US Office Vacancies Hit All-Time High As Office Property Prices Decline (Fed Retreats)

US metro office vacancies hit an all-time high in Q4 2022 and office properties values began to decline as The Fed retreats as it fights inflation.

So much money printing. Its The Fed’s claim to fame.