This One’s Going To Hurt You! US Dollar Continues To Rise, Hurting Investors (US Dollar UP 25.2% With Bidenflation)

This one’s going to hurt you for a long, long time.

Over the past year, the dollar has been on a tear: The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of foreign currencies, is up 18%. And up 25.2% under 80-year old US President Joe Biden (well, he will be 80 in November).

For tourists, a strong dollar is great news. It means you get more for your money abroad.

But for investors, a beefed-up buck is decidedly bad news.

When the dollar strengthens, that means foreign revenues are going to translate into fewer dollars. Those earnings are going to come in lower and any overseas investment you own is going to hurt you in a rising dollar environment.

Winter Is Coming! US Electricity Prices UP 24% Under Biden (S&P 500 Index DOWN -25.3% In 2022 As Fed Rate Reversal Expected In May 2023)

It’s beginning to look a lot like winter. Perhaps we should call Biden “Frosty The Snow Man” because it is going to be a miserable winter for the middle class and low wages workers as Biden’s green energy policies sink in.

The US CPI for electricity is up 24% under Nuclear Joe as The Fed continues to leave their balance sheet relatively untouched.

You might have to bail on the stock market to stay warm this winter, but it is a shame that the S&P 500 index is down -25.3% in 2022 as The Fed counterattacks Bidenflation.

When will The Federal Reserve pivot? That is, when can we sing “Here comes Santa Claus”?

According to the Fed Funds Futures data, Santa Claus is expected to return in May 2023 (rate reversal).

Double! US Diesel Prices Rising Again (UP 100% Under Biden) As Inventories Have Shrunk By -37.5% (And You Wonder Why Inflation Is Soaring?)

Like in the Sean Connery movie “The Hill,” we are seeing US diesel prices doubling.

Diesel, the lifeline of the shipping industry, is UP 100% under Biden (that is, diesel prices have doubled) while the inventory of diesel fuel has declined by -37.5% under Biden.

And you wonder why inflation is at 40 year highs?

Another Saturday High! US Mortgage Hits 7.20%, Highest Since 2000 As Fed Counterattacks Bidenflation (US Core Inflation Highest Since 1982)

Another Saturday high for the Biden Administration. Americans got less money thanks to Bidenflation.

The US 30yr Mortgage rate just hit a new high since 2000 as The Federal Reserve counterattacks the highest core inflation rate (6.60%) since 1982.

According to the Taylor Rule (which The Fed has chosen to ignore), a 6.60% core inflation rate implied a Fed target rate of 12.40%. Not likely since Fed Funds Futures data points to …

A maximum target rate of 4.963% at the May 2023 FOMC meeting, significantly lower than the needed rate of 12.40%. The Fed is like the world’s worst bar bouncer.

Rather than accepting blame for the horrific inflation rate crushing the American middle class and low wage workers, Biden is twisting the night away.

The Fed’s Limbo Rock! How Low Can Consumer Sentiment For Housing Go? (Lowest Reading Since 1992 As Fed Counterattacks Bidenflation)

The Fed’s Limbo Rock! How low can consumer sentiment for housing go?

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for housing for October just fell to its lowest level since 1992 as The Fed counterattacks against Bidenflation, causing mortgage interest rates to rise.

Of course, despite slowing home price growth, expensive home prices are really hurting along with expensive rents. But how sustainable are high home prices when REAL average hourly earnings growth is negative??

US Retail Sales Stagnate As Inflation Hits Consumers (Fed Tightening To Combat Bidenflation)

Bidenflation is just killing us. Now rising prices and The Fed’s counterattack are killing retail sales for American consumers.

US retail sales were sluggish last month, suggesting shoppers are becoming more guarded about discretionary purchases in the worst inflationary environment in decades.

The value of overall retail purchases were little changed in September after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, Commerce Department data showed Friday. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were up 0.1%. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% advance in retail sales.
Seven of 13 retail categories declined last month, according to the report, including a drop in receipts at auto dealers, furniture outlets, sporting goods stores and electronics merchants. The value of sales at gas stations fell 1.4%, reflecting cheaper fuel prices, but they’re now climbing.

At least Export Prices YoY are down below 10%! I hope exporting inflation to the world isn’t Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s idea of good foreign policy.

My favorite headline of the day is “Macron Reminds Biden to Think Before Speaking: “Biden’s Reckless Rhetoric puts World at Risk”“

How about a little Torquay from The Leftovers.

Movin’ On Up To The Dark Side! US Core Inflation Rises To Highest Level (6.6% YoY) Since 1982, Bond Volatility Now Highest Since Covid Lockdown (REAL Weekly Wage Growth Declines To -3.8% YoY)

The US is movin’ on up, to the dark side, while DC elites live in deluxe apartments in the sky. The US is movin’ on up to the dark side, we finally got a piece of the Banana Republic pie. … And its tastes horrible!

Today, the BLS released its inflation data. And it was terrible.

To begin with, headline inflation remains high at 8.2% YoY while CORE inflation (headline less food and energy) rose to 6.6% YoY.

Meanwhile, REAL average weekly earnings growth YoY further declined to -3.8% YoY.

On the bond front, the Bank of America ICE bond volatility index rose to Great Recession/banking crisis levels (also achieved during the Covid government shutdowns).

But back to the low-ball BLS inflation data. The biggest gain in price is … fuel oil at 33.1% YoY. Food at home rose 13.0% while gasoline rose 18.2%. Rent, according to the BLS, rose 6.6%.

Biden has probably been told by Ron Klain and Susan Rice that this is a good report.

US Core Inflation Seen Returning to 40-Year High as Rents Rise (Producer Price Index Higher Than Expected At 8.5% YoY)

The US Producer Price Index (Final Demand) printed at a higher than expected 8.5% YoY, throwing cold water on the notion that inflation is “transitory.”

A key US inflation measure due Thursday is set to return to a four-decade high, underscoring broad and elevated price pressures that are pushing the Federal Reserve toward yet another large interest-rate hike next month.

The so-called core consumer price index that excludes food and energy is projected to rise 0.4% in September from the prior month and 6.5% from a year earlier, matching the rate seen in March that was the highest since 1982.

The overall CPI, however, is expected to decelerate to a still-rapid 8.1% annual pace, restrained by a decline in gasoline prices, based on the median estimate.

Meanwhile, rents are soaring.

Biden’s policies are sending me to the poorhouse with killer inflation.

What Was The White House Press Secretary Talking About? REAL Disposable Income Growth Is NEGATIVE And Diesel Prices Are Skyrocketing (Gasoline Prices Rising Too) Will The Fed Pivot Soon?

I feel sorry (sort of) for people like White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre who has to read ridiculous scripts in defense of awful Federal policies. For example, yesterday she touted Biden’s “accomplishments” of rising real disposable US income and declining gasoline prices. What? Doesn’t she read Confounded Interest?? /sarc

First, REAL disposable personal income growth for the US is NEGATIVE and has been since Biden and Congress embarked on their green energy crusade driving US inflation to its highest level in 40 years. Not exactly a great sales point for the midyear elections.

If we look at REAL average hourly earnings growth, a similar measure, we see that it is negative also. So, what on earth is Jean-Pierre talking about?

She also mentioned that gasoline prices are falling. Except that they are rising again. Apparently her talking points were from September.

Then we have diesel fuel prices, the backbone of the shipping industry, rising like crazy as Biden drains the strategic petroleum reserve.

Meanwhile, The Federal Reserve is tightening their uber-loose monetary policies (thanks Bernanke, Yellen and Powell). Will The Fed pivot to help with the midterm elections OR will The Fed keep trying to extinguish inflation by raising rates and withdrawing Fed monetary stimulus?

The we have Biden speaking (incoherently) with Jake Tapper about the possibility of recession.

The Inflation Hydra! Los Angeles Diesel Prices UP 176% Under Biden While Strategic Petroleum Reserve DOWN -34.7%

Inflation is a multi-headed hydra (from Greek Mythology). It is composed of 1) monetary stimulus (that The Fed is slowly withdrawing), 2) massive, reckless Federal spending and 3) Biden’s anti-fossil fuel mandates. So, when the inflation numbers are out later this week, it will be fun to dissect the damage being done to the US economy and middle-class/low-wage workers.

Take Los Angeles, for example. The life blood of the shipping industry, diesel fuel, is UP 176% under Biden, despite declining for a short period of time. And the DOE Strategic Petroleum Reserve is DOWN -34.7% under Biden.

Here is a photo of Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) trying to fight the inflation hydra. Unfortunately, one of the inflation hydra heads is The Federal Reserve itself.

Thanks to Gustavo Fuhr!