Jobs Friday! US Avg Hourly Earnings In April Increase To 4.4% YoY, Too Bad Core Inflation Is At 5.6% YoY (Jobs Revision Loses -149K Jobs)

The good news? The US economy added 253k jobs in April. The bad news? Last months jobs report of 236k jobs added was revised downwards to 165k jobs added.

US average hourly earnings year-over-year (YoY) rose in April to 4.4%. Too bad core inflation at the last reading also rose to 5.6% YoY.

Yes, Biden and his talking heads will talk about the 253k jobs added, but will ignore (of course) the huge downward revision of March’s jobs added. 236k revised downwards to a mere 165k.

And on the good jobs report, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped by 10.9 basis points.

And the US Treasury 2Y-3M curve has dropped off the end of the earth.

The Biden Economy: Challenger Job Cuts UP 176% YoY, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity Falls -2.7% QoQ, Unit Labor Costs Almost Double To 6.3% QoQ, Inflation Strengthens (Fed Pausing Rate Hikes Then Cutting)

Biden loves to brag about the greatest economy in history! Sure Joe. Life during Biden.

Challenger jobs cuts in April were 176% year-over-year. Non farm productivity in Q1 fell -2.7% QoQ. And unit labor costs in Q1 almost doubled to 6.3% QoQ, almost doubled from the Q4 2022 figure of 3.2%.

At least The Fed is going to pause it manic rate hikes. Then begin dropping them again.

The Highlander Banking System: PacWest Says in Talks With Potential Partners After Share Plunge (But Powell Promise That The Banking Crisis Is Close To Over)

As Connor MacLeod said in the film Highlander, “There can only be one!” The US banking system under Joe Biden’s Reign of Error is like the film Highlander: apparently, there can only be one bank. And it is likely JP Morgan Chase.

Take the JP Morgan Chase (JPMC) acquisition of First Republic Bank:

In Acquiring First Republic Bank, JP Morgan Has:

Bypassed laws against acquiring bank while controlling 10%+ of US deposits
Shared $13 billion in losses with the FDIC
Received a $50 billion loan from the FDIC
Effectively bought back its own deposits
Expects to profit $5 billion+ over the next 5 years

This crisis has taught us that rules don’t matter in times of panic, particularly to regulators.

And now we have PacWest Bancorp. Lender says it’s been approached by potential investors. Bill Ackman warns US regional banking system at risk.

The turmoil at PacWest shows how investor angst still remains elevated after a string of failures and deposit outflows in the sector despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s assurance Wednesday that authorities were closer to containing the crisis. It’s reignited the debate over whether more US regional lenders will fall after this year’s collapse of SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital Corp., Signature Bank and most recently First Republic Bank.

Smaller banks are under pressure after a year of interest-rate hikes hammered the value of their bond holdings and drove unrealized losses to an estimated $1.84 trillion. Trouble in commercial real estate is adding to the pain, while depositors take their money out to seek better returns elsewhere. These stresses have put the spotlight on these lenders, which typically have fewer resources to defend themselves.

We are seeing a consolidation of the banking system .. again as smaller and regional banks fail and get gobbled up by the Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) banks like … JP Morgan Chase.

Biden’s Reign of Error is not over yet. His campaign slogan (which was also Bill Clinton’s campaign reelection slogan) is “Finish the job!” With Biden’s idiotic mortgage idea of punishing borrowers with good credit and giving subsidies to those with bad credit, Biden is trying to finish off the US economy and banking system.

We are in for more hell.

Addicted To Gov! Biden Has Added $3.7 Trillion In Public Debt, Not Suprising That M2 Money Velocity Is Rising (But Still Below Pre-Covid Spending Splurge)

Under Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi (now Hakeem Jeffries), the US economy is addicted to gov … spending and debt.

Some are marvelling that M2 Money VELOCITY (GDP/M2) is rising as if this is a miracle. It isn’t. Under Biden, public debt has increased by $3.7 trillion. But as The Fed pulls back and M2 Money growth slows, M2 Money Velocity is rising. But still below historic levels.

Doctor, doctor (Yellen). We have a bad case of excessive and wasteful Federal spending and debt.

China doesn’t have to invade the US. Biden, Schumer and Jeffries are destroying the country on their own.

While Biden is bailing out banks and Ukraine (and taking bribes from China), I am struggling to buy a bottle of wine.

US Mortgage Demand Declines 1.2% From Last Week, Purchase Demand Still Down -32% From Same Week Last Year While Refi Demand Down -51% YoY

This is last data dump for mortgage demand (applications) before Biden’s idiotic woke mortgage policies go into effect (taxing those with good credit to subsidize those with lousy credit) take effect. I call this Bolshevik Biden’s Mortgage Market.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 28, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Bolshevik Biden.

One More Hike! Fed Expected To Raise Rates One More Time, Then Start Cutting Rates (Large Bank Failures, Slowing Economy)

Like the Phil Collins song “One More Night”, there will be one more hike.

The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to one more hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting. Then reversal of policy.

With the massive bank failures under Clueless Joe, The Fed will intervene to make the problem worse. And with Biden’s insane mortgage policies, Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy!” is the perfect themesong for Biden and The Fed.

The Incredible Shrinking Biden Economy! ISM Manufacturing Screams Stagflation, Still Contracting With “Reigniting Inflationary Pressures” (ISM Shrinks For Sixth Month)

Ah, that wonderful economy O’Biden talks about. It is actually shrinking.

The ISM Manufacturing index screams stagflation, as it continues to contract. With “reigniting inflationary pressures.

And prices are beginning to take off again.

The United Banana Republics Of America! US Credit Default Swap (CDS) Price Hits 176.53 As Debt Default Looms

Thanks to O’Biden (Obama/Biden) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s failure to negotiate a debt ceiling increase, the US has officially become a banana republic. Crazy government, lawless censoring and arrest of opposing political candidates.

The US CDS 1Y SR Eur just hit a staggering 176.53. That is the price of insuring against a debt default by O’Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Is a US debt default likely? It shouldn’t be. But you never know with the circus clowns in the White House and nasty Chuck Schumer. But arresting the leading Republican Presidential candidate before the elections is pure Chavez/Maduro Banana Republic politics.

2 year Treasury yield up over 11 basis points today.

Crisis? What Crisis? First Republic Bank Headed For FDIC Receivership, US Yield Curve Plunges, Bank Lending Plunges, Middle Class Shrinks Under Biden/Yellen

Crisis? What crisis?

First, First Republic bank is most likely headed for FDIC receivership, sources say; shares drop 40%.

Second, we have the US yield curve (3M T-yield – 18M FWD 3M T-yield) crashing to the most inverted since the 1990s.

Third, we have US bank lending crashing.

Fourth, we have a shrinking middle class. Way to go Biden/Yellen/Powell!

I wish I could sing “Goodbye Biden and Yellen.” And Foul Powell too.

Is that Mayor Pete??

The Core! US March Core PCE Prices Remain HOT At 4.6% YoY Despite Fed Crashing M2 Money Growth, March Personal Spending Slows To 0% MoM (Taylor Rule Suggests 10.27% Target Rate)

March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Core Prices remain HOT despite The Fed crashing M2 Money growth. PCE Core price growth remained elevated at 4.6%.