Pork Barrell Chuck And Gaslight Joe! $60 Million For Ukraine, $0 For US Border Disaster (Purchasing Power Of Dollar Down -16% Under Biden)

Its Pork Barrell Chuck Schumer and Gaslight Joe Biden! Always ready to lie (gaslight) and spend trillions that we don’t have.

A new $1.2 trillion government spending package Congress is trying to ram through faces significant headwinds in the House, where members are expected to vote on it later this morning.

The 1,012-page bill was introduced at around 3am Thursday morning – just 48 hours before a midnight Friday funding deadline. It must pass both the House and the Senate, after which President Biden will sign it (with crayons at the ready, we’re sure).

The package accounts for approximately 70% of discretionary government spending – and consists of six out of twelve total bills that Congress must pass each fiscal year to fund the government. The six others, around $460 billion in spending, were passed earlier this month.

According to Fox News, multiple GOP sources, two GOP lawmakers and one senior GOP aide think the package will pass, but by a tight margin.

On Thursday afternoon, however, the bipartisan deal hit turbulence – with one GOP lawmaker citing absurd pork contained within – including funding for LGBTQ centers and facilities that provide late-term abortions.

Pork City

As usual, Democrats slipped in as much pork as possible, including:– $850k for a gay senior home- $15 million to pay for Egyptian’s college tuitions- $400k for a gay activist group to teach elementary kids about being trans- $500k for a DEI zoo- $400k for a group to gives clothes to teens to help them hide their gender

$60,000,000,000 for Ukraine (of course). NOTHING for US border.

$1,140,000,000,0000 for pork barrelling

1.2 trillion in inflation, an increase of the money supply by 2% in a single spending bill.

The US Dollar’s purchasing power is down -16% under Gaslight Joe.

Existing Home Sales Prices Explode In February (Median Selling Price Rose 5.7% to $384,500 From Last Year, Highest For Any February Back To 1999)

February’s existing home sales are like a scoop of cottage cheese. Seemingly satisfying until you look more closely at the data (or get hungry 30 minutes later).

Existing home sales soared a stunning 9.5% MoM in February, smashing the expectation of a 1.3% decline and building on the 3.1% MoM in January. However, even with the big monthly jump, existing home sales remain down 3.3% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Total existing home sales SAAR surged to 4.38mm – a 12 month high…

Source: Bloomberg

Homeowners may be accepting that mortgage rates are settling into a new normal and can’t delay moving any longer, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said on a call with reporters.

“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” Yun said in a statement.

“Housing demand has been on a steady rise due to population and job growth, though the actual timing of purchases will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.”

With a 2-month lag, we can see why existing home sales may have risen, but with mortgage rates rising since then, we suspect the fun and games may come to an end again soon (even if the NAR economist thinks otherwise)…

The number of previously owned homes for sale climbed to about 1.07 million last month, and Yun said he expects that will continue to go up. At the current sales pace, selling all the properties on the market would take 2.9 months, the lowest in about a year.

Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight market.

Even with greater inventory, strong demand put upward pressure on prices. The median selling price advanced 5.7% to $384,500 from a year ago, the highest for any February in data back to 1999.

Sales rose in three of four regions, led by a 16.4% surge in the West

First-time buyers made up 26% of purchases in February, matching the lowest on record.

Weekly Jobs Reports Doesn’t Capture The Disastrous US Jobs Market (Biden’s “Take This Job And Shove It” Economy)

As Johnny Paycheck sang, “Take This Job And Shove It”. Apparently, we are seeing a number of firms scaling back on their workforce.

As a reminder, in the real world labor market, 2024 has been a shitshow of layoffs…

1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
4. Twig: 100% of workforce
5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
9. Away: 25% of workforce
10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
13. Finder: 17% of workforce
14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
23. Snap: 10% of workforce
24. eBay: 9% of workforce
25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
30. Okta: 7% of workforce
31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
34. EA: 5% of workforce
35. Motional: 5% of workforce
36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
39. UPS: 2% of workforce
40. Nike: 2% of workforce
41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
50. Perrigo: 500 employees

But, according to the government-supplied data…

The number of American filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped to 209k (vs 218k exp) with the NSA number tumbling to 200k…

Source: Bloomberg

How is this possible, you may ask… well let us show you the ways… New York State claims that its jobless benefits rolls collapsed last week. New York accounted for 99.75% of the weekly change in initial claims across the entire US as shown below…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims was a shit show – with a massive 112k person downward revision for last week from 1.906 million to 1.794mm. That is the 5th straight weekly downward revision of continuing claims…

Source: Bloomberg

But thanks to the adjustments, it all looks ‘normal’ and ‘stable’ at around 1.8 million Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

And WARN numbers are rising rapidly…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, if you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin’s data, here’s what the most recent FOMC Minutes said:

“While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”

Even they aren’t buying it, and neither should you!

Hot, Hot, Hot? Inflation Hot, With Consumer Prices Up 19% Under Bidenomics (Shelter Index Increased 5.7% Over Last Year)

Unlike what Grand-dad Joey Biden screamed at the State of The Union (SOTU) address, inflation is NOT been defeated. In fact, inflation has defeated Biden and The Federal Reserve.

After January’s surprised upside shift, expectations have been adjusted up over the last month for another sizable MoM move in headline CPI. But that was not enough as the 0.4% MoM rise in the headline (as expected – highest since August) lifted CPI YoY up to +3.2% (hotter than the 3.1% exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3-month annualized CPI rate was rose to 2.8% from 1.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate dropped to 3.2% from 3.3%.

Energy costs surged MoM as Core Services inflation slowed MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

Full CPI MoM breakdown:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in February, as it did the previous month.

The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in February and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
The index for rent rose 0.5 percent over the month, while the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.4 percent.
The lodging away from home index increased 0.1 percent in February, after rising 1.8 percent in January.
The airline fares index rose 3.6 percent in February, following a 1.4-percent increase in January.
The index for motor vehicle insurance increased 0.9 percent over the month.
The medical care index was unchanged in February after rising 0.5 percent in January.
The index for hospital services decreased 0.6 percent over the month and the index for physicians’ services decreased 0.2 percent.
The prescription drugs index fell 0.1 percent in February.
The index for dental services was among those that rose in February, increasing 0.4 percent.
The index for personal care fell 0.5 percent in February, following a 0.6-percent increase in January.
The household furnishings and operations index fell 0.1 percent over the month, as did the new vehicles index.
Among other indexes that rose in February were apparel, recreation, and used cars and trucks.

Full CPI YoY breakdown:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8 percent over the past 12 months.

The shelter index increased 5.7 percent over the last year, accounting for roughly two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the core CPI index
- Feb Shelter inflation: 5.74% down from 6.04% in Jan
- Feb rent inflation: 5.77%, down from 6.09% in Jan

Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+20.6 percent), medical care (+1.4 percent), recreation (+2.1 percent), and personal care (+4.2 percent).

Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM (hotter than the +0.3% exp) and up 3.8% YoY (hotter than the +3.7% exp), but still the lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3-month annualized Core CPI rate was rose to 4.1% from 3.9%. The 6-month annualized core rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%.

Core Goods actually rose MoM for the first time since June 2023…

Goods deflation continues (-0.3% YoY) but has flattened out, while services inflation remains stubbornly high at +5.2% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

And one step deeper – the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index – soared 0.5% MoM up to 4.5% YoY – the hottest since May 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

While SuperCore CPI slowed MoM, there was a large jump in Transportation Services MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up 19% since Bidenomics was unleashed. And prices have never been more expensive…

Source: Bloomberg

That is an average of 5.6% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).

So, about that shrinkflation – did companies only ‘get greedy’ when Biden took office?

But it gets worse, real wage growth has lagged significantly for the average joe in America…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a very modest decline in Feb, Food costs are up over 21% since Biden’s term began, but non-supervisory wages are up only 18%.

Bidenomics for the win!

Are we going to see a replay on the ’70s?

Source: Bloomberg

The market narrative of slow and steady disinflation just broke harder.

…or are we still set for a massive wave of depressionary deflation?

Inflation remains hot, hot, hot although Biden/Yellen will undoubtedly say that it is lower than last year. But remember, consumer prices are up a staggering 19% under Bidenomics. THAT is a major tax of those making under $200,000 per year, Joey.

Banker’s Paradise? NEC’s Brainard Pushed to Change Biden Budget Forecast to Rosier View (For Lower Rates, More Optimistic Growth)

We are living in a banker’s paradise. Where a top administrative official pushes to change forecasts of the economy. Hey, it’s a Presidential election year and literally anything goes.

(Bloomberg) — Joe Biden’s top economic aide, Lael Brainard, successfully pressed to adjust a White House forecast in a way that resulted in a slightly rosier outlook in the president’s forthcoming budget plan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The disagreement was over forecasts for 10-year Treasury yields in the budget, a linchpin estimate that is intertwined with other measures, like debt service costs.

Forecasts in the president’s budget proposal — scheduled for release Monday — are typically set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young and the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein. The group is known in fiscal circles as the troika.

The “troika”? More like The Three Stooges.

An October meeting, however, included a fourth invited principal: Brainard, who directs the National Economic Council. Brainard at one point disagreed with Yellen, Young and Bernstein on the 10-year interest rate projections and predicted a slightly lower rate, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to detail the discussions.

The difference between the forecasts was modest and both were well within range of private-sector estimates, the people said. The exact scope of Brainard’s changes aren’t clear.

Brainard’s forecast painted a modestly better picture for Biden. A lower interest-rate forecast would have the effect of an improved overall outlook by offering more support for growth and suggesting less concern about inflation. It also would lower borrowing cost projections at a time of rising worries about the US deficit and debt.

Let’s see what the Troika have to say about the quits rate.

Here is a video of Bidenomics at work!

The Ides Of March! New York Community Bancorp Collapsing (Small Bank Delinquency Rate Hits 7.80%, Highest On Record!)

Yes, it is the Ides of March. No, not Nikki Haley trying to sabotage Donald Trump’s campaign after Nikki got clobbered in all but two state primaries. So in a sour grapes move, Haley didn’t endorse Trump. But the Ides of March refers to the stabbing of Julius Caesar (led by Brutus).

Once the darling of the small banking crisis comeback, New York Community Bancorp has crashed 45% to fresh 30 year lows after The Wall Street Journal reports the bank is seeking to raise equity capital in a bid to shore up confidence in the troubled regional lender.

According to people familiar with the matter, NYCB has dispatched bankers to gauge investors’ interest in buying stock in the company.

There’s no guarantee there will be a deal, or that one would succeed in addressing the bank’s challenges, which as of Wednesday morning had led to a roughly 80% decline in its stock price since January.

This is not a good picture for a bank… Would you hold your deposits there?

Last month, DiNello laid out a series of options the bank could explore to bolster its balance sheet, including selling assets from certain non-core businesses. The bank has also considered turning to newfangled financial instruments that would share the risks of those loans with outside investors, people familiar with the matter said.

As WSJ reports, finding takers for those assets, at least at prices that would make a deal worthwhile, has been challenging and U.S. officials have expressed reservations with banks pursuing credit-risk transfers that would shift the burden of potential losses to entities outside of the regulated banking system.

Finally, as a reminder, NYCB is not alone. The red line below shows ‘small banks’ are in trouble absent The Fed’s BTFP facility…

Oh, and this is fine…

The delinquency rate among large banks hits 3%, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate among small banks hits 7.80%, the highest on record.

And perhaps that’s why the broad regional bank index is also getting hit today…

Beware the Ides of March as RRP liquidity evaporates.

Think this is isolated? Please disburse. Nothing to see here!

Stall Speed! How Bidenomics Has Caused Mortgage Demand To Stall, Mortgage Applications Down 5.6% From Last Week (Inflation + Fed = Mortgage Rates Above 7%)

The mortgage market has reached stall speed thanks to Bidenomics (inflation begat Fed tightening that begat 7%+ mortgage rates).

Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 7.04 percent from 7.06 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Another Biden Program Bites The Dust! Ford Halts 2024 F-150 Lightning Shipments (Jan Car And Light Truck Sales Down -0.7% YoY As M2 Money Growth Remains Negative)

Another Biden program bites the dust, this time his big push to encourage everyone to buy an electric vehicle (EV). Meanwhile, Biden keeps going on vacation (as if he REALLY cares about middle America).

Cars and light trucks are seeing declining YoY sales in January (-0.7%) as M2 Money growth remains negative.

Automotive News was the first to report Ford Motor Co. halted shipments of all 2024 F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks for an undisclosed quality control issue just weeks after slashing production volumes for the EV model due to sliding demand.

A Ford spokesperson did not explain the reasons behind the quality check, but shipments of Lightnings have been halted since Feb. 9. Even with shipments paused, production of the Lightnings continues at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan.

“We expect to ramp up shipments in the coming weeks as we complete thorough launch quality checks to ensure these new F-150s meet our high standards and delight customers,” company spokeswoman Emma Bergg wrote in a statement.

Last month, Ford announced plans to slash the Lightning production in April “to achieve the optimal balance of production, sales growth and profitability.”

The automaker (and many others, like Mercedes Benz) is recalibrating its electric vehicle strategy as the Biden administration plans to downshift the EV transition as demand plummets.

Thousands of auto dealers nationwide recently warned the ‘climate change warriors’ in the White House: the 2030 EV push is backfiring.

“Currently, there are many excellent battery electric vehicles available for consumers to purchase. These vehicles are ideal for many people, and we believe their appeal will grow over time. The reality, however, is that electric vehicle demand today is not keeping up with the large influx of BEVs arriving at our dealerships prompted by the current regulations. BEVs are stacking up on our lots,” the dealers said.

They warned: “Already, electric vehicles are stacking up on our lots which is our best indicator of customer demand in the marketplace.”

A recent note by RBC analyst Tom Narayan said the EV slowdown is far from over:

“Key takeaways thus far from earnings season are that the EV slowdown is not showing any evidence of an inflection, Level 4 autonomy headwinds continue to persist, and fears over supplier inventory overbuild are likely overblown.

Analyst Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley suggested consolidation is coming to the industry:

Given that Biden’s 2030 EV mandate is in full collapse, the downturn in the EV space will likely continue through the second half of this year.

Oddly, Biden’s push for chip manufacturing has worked (at least Nancy Pelosi made over $1 million on NVIDIA). I am so glad the Biden/Congress are making Pelosi even wealthier. /sarc

Biden and Pelosi, two honorary Venezuelan plutocrats.

Stop, Stop, Stop … Printing! Consumer Purchasing Power Down 97% Since Fed Creation (1913) And Down 16% Under Biden (M2 Money Velocity And Debt Velocity STINK!)

The Hollies said it best: Stop, stop, stop. FIAT Money Printing that is.

Typically, we look at M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2) as a measure of how much the economy grows by expanding the money supply.

M2 Money Velocity is currently at 1.344, and still below where we were under Trump prior to Covid. After Powell printing palooza after Covid, M2 Money Velocity collapsed and is slowly rising, but remains low by historic standards.

Perhaps a more interest velocity is DEBT velocity (GDP/DEBT). Under Biden’s Reign of Error, Federal debt has increased by $6,539,359 million while real GDP has increased by only $1,948.731 billion (or roughly $2 trillion in GDP growth after $6.54 trillion in debt). Or a DEBT velocity of 0.3. Yikes! No wonder China is bailing on US debt!

This chart makes debt issuance look better than it really is. Again, the DEBT VELOCITY of 0.3 is terrible meaning that for every $1 of Federal debt, we get 30 cents in Real GDP under Biden. One of my macroeconomics textbooks stated that debt growth is fine as long as real GDP growth rises faster than debt growth. Apparently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen didn’t read that textbook! Real GDP has grown by 9.43% under Biden while Federal debt has grown by … gulp .. 24%.

Yes, the US is borrowing like the proverbial drunken sailor while they “invest” in green energy, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and massive social welfare programs (like the old breads and circuses from the dying Roman Empire). When watching the media’s obsession with Taylor Swift and Chief’s Tight End Travis Kelce at The Super Bowl, it reminded me of “Breads and Circuses” as our nation is collapsing like a dying star. (That is why I Iike Gold, Silver and Bitcoin!)

What about The Federal Reserve? It was created in 1913 after signed into existence by President Woodrow Wilson. Since The Fed’s inception, consumer purchasing power has declined by 97%.

And under Biden, inflation has been so bad that consumer purchasing power is down 16%.

In summary, The Federal Reserve has been printing like crazy (I would say Batshit Crazy, but I actually think bats are adorable). And Treasury (under former Fed Chair Janet Yellen) has been borrowing like crazy too. While politicians claim the economy is in great shape, it is really because The Fed is printing wildly, Yellen is borrowing wildly, and much of US GDP is not due to the private sector, but Federal government spending … to the donor class. This is NOT a sustainable and will eventually crash into a ravine.

Here is an excellent interview with Col. Douglas MacGregor who talks about Bitcoin.

Goodbye Free Markets! Biden’s EV Mandate “Vision” For America Is In Full Collapse (Gasoline Prices UP 46.25% Under Biden, Diesel Prices UP 55.6%)

Goodbye free markets! Hello heavy-handed government cronyism.

So, despite recent declines in energy prices, gasoline prices are still up 46.25% under “Green Joe” and the all important for shipping, diesel prices, are still up 55.6% under Brainless Joe.

One would think that massive rises in gasoline and diesel prices would make everyone buy an electric vehicle (EV). But alas, the high cost and unreliability of EVs is turning off consumers. (I own a hybrid and wish I didn’t).

Another one of the Biden administration’s “visions” for forcing people to own electric vehicles isn’t working out exactly as planned.

This time it deals with supply chain logistics, with Bloomberg reporting this week that in the year and a half since passing the Inflation Reduction Act, automakers are finding out the hard way that the rigorous criteria for manufacturing batteries using materials from the United States and its free-trade allies could render them cost-inefficient compared to global competitors.

Companies like Tesla are instead taking advantage of a temporary shift in the rules to stock up with cheaper batteries from countries like China.

The Biden administration’s new rules will all but cut out China from the supply chain, however, which will make it tougher to find affordable metal suppliers.

This, in turn, will threaten President Biden’s goal to boost the domestic electric vehicle market. Bloomberg writes that mining companies and labor unions insist that without curtailing the influx of cheaper, Chinese-subsidized materials, the U.S. can’t develop a competitive EV market.

Meanwhile, the higher costs are driving automakers away from EVs. And as battery material requirements are set to double by 2027, fulfilling these mandates will be increasingly difficult, putting Biden’s ambitious EV strategy at risk.

The demand side of the equation also looks less than favorable. We wrote just hours ago about how Ford was slashing prices on its Mach E and Lightning 150. Tesla has been slashing prices to stoke demand for nearly a year now.

Both Ford and GM have said they’re going to curtail their investment in EVs. General Motors, who posted better than expected earnings earlier this month, said that it plans on changing its product lineup to include more hybrid vehicles, drifting away from pure electric vehicles.

CEO Mary Barra said on the earnings call: “Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035, but, in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environment or environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build this charging infrastructure.”

Recall, a report from Consumer Reports last year found that electric vehicles have almost 80% more problems and are “generally less reliable” than conventional internal combustion engine cars.

But hey, what good is a “free” market if the government doesn’t have complete and total control of consumer choice, right Joe? After all, Biden drives a gas guzzling Chevy Corvette. When Biden sells his Corvette and buys a Chevy Bolt, I might believe him. Nah!

So, the free market is standing up to Biden’s hard left tyranny.

My new nickname for Biden is Dopey. And Kamala Harris is Happy (because she laughs constantly). Mayorkas is Bashful (he doesn’t do anything). NY Senator Chuck Schumer is Grumpy. Jill Biden is Doc (for her pathetic PhD in Education). The intellectual seven dwarves are running our country into the ground.