Ok, it is well-known that Biden was the stupidest man in the US Senate. And with Washington’s Patty Murray in the Senate, that is quite an accomplishment.
But Biden is President and is still stupid and spiraling down the dementia rabbit hole. He is blaming Republicans for their budget proposal to end the debt ceiling crisis despite saying previously that he would negotitate. Apparently, Biden’s puppet masters are telling him to risk default by playing the blame game.
So, US credit default swap (CDS 1Y, SR, EURO) price remains elevated which indicates that Biden, Yellen and Schumer may actually default on US debt.
As M2 Money growth crashes and burns, the US Treasury 2Y-3M yield curve inverts to lowest in history.
Biden loves to brag about the greatest economy in history! Sure Joe. Life during Biden.
Challenger jobs cuts in April were 176% year-over-year. Non farm productivity in Q1 fell -2.7% QoQ. And unit labor costs in Q1 almost doubled to 6.3% QoQ, almost doubled from the Q4 2022 figure of 3.2%.
At least The Fed is going to pause it manic rate hikes. Then begin dropping them again.
As Connor MacLeod said in the film Highlander, “There can only be one!” The US banking system under Joe Biden’s Reign of Error is like the film Highlander: apparently, there can only be one bank. And it is likely JP Morgan Chase.
Take the JP Morgan Chase (JPMC) acquisition of First Republic Bank:
In Acquiring First Republic Bank, JP Morgan Has:
Bypassed laws against acquiring bank while controlling 10%+ of US deposits
Shared $13 billion in losses with the FDIC
Received a $50 billion loan from the FDIC
Effectively bought back its own deposits
Expects to profit $5 billion+ over the next 5 years
This crisis has taught us that rules don’t matter in times of panic, particularly to regulators.
And now we have PacWest Bancorp. Lender says it’s been approached by potential investors. Bill Ackman warns US regional banking system at risk.
The turmoil at PacWest shows how investor angst still remains elevated after a string of failures and deposit outflows in the sector despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s assurance Wednesday that authorities were closer to containing the crisis. It’s reignited the debate over whether more US regional lenders will fall after this year’s collapse of SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital Corp., Signature Bank and most recently First Republic Bank.
Smaller banks are under pressure after a year of interest-rate hikes hammered the value of their bond holdings and drove unrealized losses to an estimated $1.84 trillion. Trouble in commercial real estate is adding to the pain, while depositors take their money out to seek better returns elsewhere. These stresses have put the spotlight on these lenders, which typically have fewer resources to defend themselves.
We are seeing a consolidation of the banking system .. again as smaller and regional banks fail and get gobbled up by the Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) banks like … JP Morgan Chase.
Biden’s Reign of Error is not over yet. His campaign slogan (which was also Bill Clinton’s campaign reelection slogan) is “Finish the job!” With Biden’s idiotic mortgage idea of punishing borrowers with good credit and giving subsidies to those with bad credit, Biden is trying to finish off the US economy and banking system.
This is last data dump for mortgage demand (applications) before Biden’s idiotic woke mortgage policies go into effect (taxing those with good credit to subsidize those with lousy credit) take effect. I call this Bolshevik Biden’s Mortgage Market.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 28, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to one more hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting. Then reversal of policy.
With the massive bank failures under Clueless Joe, The Fed will intervene to make the problem worse. And with Biden’s insane mortgage policies, Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy!” is the perfect themesong for Biden and The Fed.
Thanks to O’Biden (Obama/Biden) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s failure to negotiate a debt ceiling increase, the US has officially become a banana republic. Crazy government, lawless censoring and arrest of opposing political candidates.
The US CDS 1Y SR Eur just hit a staggering 176.53. That is the price of insuring against a debt default by O’Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Is a US debt default likely? It shouldn’t be. But you never know with the circus clowns in the White House and nasty Chuck Schumer. But arresting the leading Republican Presidential candidate before the elections is pure Chavez/Maduro Banana Republic politics.
2 year Treasury yield up over 11 basis points today.
Official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show that, since January 2021, legislation signed by President Biden has set in motion a record $3.37 trillion in new spending. And for all that spending, we get a pathetic 1.1% QoQ growth rate?
Inflation continues to be 4% QoQ despite M2 Money growth collapsing.
Gross private domestic investment crashed by -12.5% QoQ.
This is Biden’s idea of a strong economy? His lame campaign slogan is “Let’s finish the job!” Please don’t Joe!
Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 21, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 28 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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