The good news (if true)? ADP announced that 497k jobs were added in June.
The bad news? A 497k print on jobs (many seasonal, it is summer!) almost guarantees that The FOMC (Fed Open Market Committe) will raises rates again at at the July meeting.
The 2-year Treasury yield is up over 10 basis points.
The 2-year Treasury yield is up 16.5 basis points.
Bticoin Cash is up 10% today.
I should have bought nickel!
Why is Biden sending Treasury Secretary Janet “The Marxist Midget” Yellen to China? A Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chair? Likely trying to convince China that our $32 TRILLLION AND GROWING national debt is not a problem, since China is the third largest holder of US Treasury debt (after The Fed and Japan). Note that China has decreased its holdings of US Treasuries by -25.6% since January 2018.
Hopefully, Yellen isn’t acting as a bag man for The Biden Crime Family. 10% for The Big Guy?? How much does Yellen get??
Joe Biden, or “Blow Biden” after the cocaine was discovered in the White House the other day, owns the abysmal mortgage and housing market thanks to The Fed fighting inflation caused by Bidenomics (massive Federal spending and massive Fed stimulus).
Mortgage applications decreased 4.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 30, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Here is the rest on the story:
As liquidity dries up under Bidenomics. Or Yellenomics. Take your pick!
Seriously, can The Biden Administration get any more embarrassing? Or dangerous to American civil liberties?
As Powell and The Gang raise interest rates, the more the economy is … slip slidin’ away. US Manufacturers New Orders YoY in May declined -1.0% for the first time since Covid.
The Federal Home Loan Bank system (aka, FLUBs), a relic of FDR and The Great Depression, subsidizes banks, not individuals. Much like its twin sibling, The Federal Reserve system, it is a Socialist institution that rely of manipulation rather than free markets.
The first sign of deep trouble in US banking this year came from a sunbaked office complex in a San Diego suburb. There, a small firm called Silvergate Capital Corp. assured investors it was weathering a run on deposits. Its lifeline: about $4.3 billion from a Federal Home Loan Bank.
Heads turned across the financial industry.
Silvergate didn’t have a network of branches serving consumers, and it barely offered mortgages. It specialized in moving dollars for cryptocurrency ventures.
Soon it became apparent that a roster of troubled regional banks was leaning on FHLBs — a relic of the Great Depression originally aimed at ensuring financial firms have cash to lend to homebuyers. Yet the banks had little to do with everyday mortgage lending.
Silicon Valley Bank, catering to venture capitalists and tech startups, said it held $15 billion from an FHLB at the end of 2022. Signature Bank, with clients including crypto platforms, had $11 billion. And by April, First Republic Bank, offering mortgages to millionaires on unusually sweet terms, ended up with more than $28 billion. All four banks collapsed.
For many, that was a crystallizing moment for the 90-year-old Federal Home Loan Bank system, which has ballooned to more than $1.5 trillion while playing a growing role as a backstop for banks taking all kinds of risks — and a diminishing role in funding new mortgages. That’s raising questions about the purpose of FHLBs and why the private institutions enjoy so much government support.
As Milton Friedman once said, “Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.”
Of course, rate increases are crushing regional banks as well as the middle class. But as M2 Money growth crashes, home price growth is slowing into negative territory.
Happy 4th of July! Enjoy those burgers and hot dogs, at least until you consider that food prices have risen a staggering 49% under Biden’s Reign of Economic Error.
The only good news is that The Fed’s monetary stimulus growth is slowing. But don’t worry! Biden and Congress will keep introduce massive spending bills to avert a recession. Which will cause downline inflation.
Its the 4th of July, American Independence Day from England, but under Biden and The Federal Reserve, Americans are DEPENDENT on debt and Federal spending. In other words, Americans are addicted to gov.
First, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index is up 150% under Biden. You can see the rapid rise in mortgage rates started with Biden (orange box). Meanwhile, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is the most inverted (negative slope) since 1981. Way to go, Joe!!
On the metals side, gold and silver are up slightly. (Go silver go!!)
On the crypto side, Polkadot is up 1.26% while Bitcoin is down -0.18%.
Memo To Fed: keep on printing! Why? US debt is currently $32.33 TRILLION with $192 TRILLION in unfunded Federal liabilties. That is 5 times the current level of debt!!
I was hoping that the week of July 4th would start off with fireworks, but we got bad news about the economy.
US factory activity contracted for an eighth month in June, slipping to the weakest level in more than three years as production, employment and input prices retreated.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 46, the weakest since May 2020, from 46.9 a month earlier, according to data released Monday. The current stretch of readings below 50, which indicates shrinking activity, is the longest since 2008-2009.
The decline in the ISM production gauge, which also stands at the lowest level since May 2020, suggests demand for merchandise remains weak. The index of new orders contracted for the 10th straight month and order backlogs shrank, which may help explain a pullback in a measure of manufacturing employment.
The ISM gauge retreated to a three-month low and, at 48.1, indicates fewer producers adding to payrolls.
Many Americans continue to limit their spending on merchandise as they rotate to services and experiences. Others are simply tightening their belts as still-high inflation takes a toll on their incomes.
And then we have cardboard box shipments declining at fastest rate since 2008/2009.
At least Ethereum is up over 2% this morning.
And the US Treasury 10Y-2Y keeps on diving deeper into inversion.
Bidenomics is based on massive Federal spending and massive Fed monetary stimulus. But like all stimulus, it wears off. Such is the case with bank lending as The Fed raises interest rates.
US bank credit year-over-year (YoY) has stalled to a lowly 0.7% rate as M2 Money growth YoY increases slightly to -4%.
Its figures. With the Socialist Federal Reserve manipulating interest rates and Biden/Congress spending like drunken sailors trying to manipuate economic growth, it makes sense that Biden wants to explore Bill Gate’s idiotic idea of blotting out the sun to prevent global warming.
Of course, Biden can hide at any of his 4 mansions and wear his Ray-ban Aviators to avoid the horror of his policies.
The University of Michigan consumer survey results are out and there is good news! Sort of.
The UMich Buying Conditions for Houses rose to 47 in July! That is the good news. The bad news? It was at 142 in the last month before Covid and the economic/school shutdowns.
That is -67% lower than under pre-Covid Trump.
Nothing has been the same since Covid (aka, the Wuhan China Lab virus) where our corrupt politicians and lame street media (aka, government cheerleaders) show no interest in finding out what really happened.
Bitcoin cash is up 21.5% today.
Gold and silver are up today. Too bad I can’t buy nickel coins.
The Walking Dead’s Megan. The honorary symbol of Bidenomics.
The film “The Core” was a silly film, but core inflation in the US is a serious problem for the middle class and low-wage workers. It remains elevated despite Treasury Secretary Janet “The Marxist Gnome” Yellen saying it was “transitory.” Looks pretty permanent to me!
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of US inflation cooled (slightly) in May and consumer spending stagnated, suggesting the economy’s main engine is starting to lose some momentum.
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in May, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. From a year ago, the measure eased to the slowest pace in more than two years.
Consumer spending, adjusted for prices, was little changed after a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in April. From February through May, household spending has essentially stalled after an early-year surge. Spending on merchandise dropped, while outlays for services increased.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% from May 2022. That’s in line with annual readings back to late 2022 and shows minimal relief from elevated price pressures. Economists consider this to be a better gauge of underlying inflation.
Indicator
Actual
Estimate
PCE price index (MoM)
+0.1%
+0.1%
Core PCE price index (MoM)
+0.3%
+0.3%
PCE price index (YoY)
+3.8%
+3.8%
Core PCE price index (YoY)
+4.6%
+4.7%
Real consumer spending (MoM)
0.0%
+0.1%
Under the hood of the government report, a key metric flagged by Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed a welcome slowdown. Services inflation excluding housing and energy services increased 0.2% in May from a month earlier, the smallest advance since July of last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. The figure was up 4.5% from a year ago.
The Taylor Rule now suggests a target rate of 10%. We are just halfway to target!
Meanwhile, Yellen Plans July China Trip, While US Preps Investment Curbs. Trying to convince China that the US won’t default on its $32 TRILLION and growing debt?
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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