More bad news about the economy and housing sector under Biden/Yellen/Powell’s Reign of Economic Error.
US housing starts are out for April 2023. The bad news? Housing starts tanked -22.3% year-over-year (YoY).
The good news? US housing starts were up 2.19% from March to April. 1-unit detached starts were up 1.56% MoM while 5+ unit starts up 5.24% MoM. Permits for multifamily were down -9.71% from March to April.
The media will no doubt try to ignore the horrifying Durham Report. The report showed that Hillary Clinton and the Obama administration knowingly smeared Presidential candidate Donald Trump with false Russian misinformation and knowingly tried to steal an election. I wonder if Attorney General Merrick Garland will open an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s involvement in election tampering? Oh wait, the IRS was told to stop investigating Hunter Biden’s nefarious dealings. Never mind.
Biden’s economy and mortgage market are like a bad wine hangover. Thanks to inflation and The Fed’s tightening to fight inflation, mortgage purchase demand is down a staggering -42.4% since April 2021.
Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 12, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
I used to think that The Kabuki Theater surrounding the raising of the US debt limit and passing a Federal budget would be over by now. But since Biden is being controlled by the hard left “Progressives” in Washington DC, he may be reckless enough to let the US default just so he can blame Republicans. And with our useless and deeply-biased main street media (MSM) just repeating Democrat talking points blaming Republicans, we may actually see a US debt default.
So while Yellen is warning that time is running out, notice she never encourage Blaming Biden to negotiate his insane budget downwards, we see a deeply inverted US Treasury short curve (2Y-3M).
(Bloomberg) Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that “time is running out” to avert an economic catastrophe from failing to raise the debt ceiling, in remarks released as President Joe Biden and congressional leaders prepared to meet on the standoff.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy issued his own notice Monday evening ahead of Tuesday’s 3 p.m. gathering, saying, “We only have so many days left to deal with this.”
The two sides showed little signs of agreeing on much else other than the countdown in the runup to the second White House encounter on the debt ceiling in two weeks. While senior staff have been negotiating for days, Republicans are still pressing for sweeping spending cuts, while Democrats are determined to protect the president’s legislative achievements.
“We are already seeing the impacts of brinksmanship: investors have become more reluctant to hold government debt that matures in early June,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for delivery to a banking conference on Tuesday. “The impasse has already increased the debt burden to American taxpayers.”
The Treasury chief issued a fresh letter to congressional leaders Monday restating that the Treasury risks running out of sufficient cash for all federal obligations as soon as June 1. The livelihoods of millions of Americans “hang in the balance,” she said in excerpts of her speech to the Independent Community Bankers of America Capital Summit released by the Treasury.
There is the evil Hobbit! Sending a letter to Congress essentially blaming McCarthy for the fiasco when Biden could downsize his budget request to reasonable levels. But Yellen is an authoritarian Statist, not a free market type.
Inflatiion Joe Biden (or Unaffordable Joe). Bidenflation has led to The Federal Reserve tightening interest rates. As I said on Stuart Varney’s show years ago, “When The Fed starts raising rates, KABOOM!”
Now we are seeing US Loan Demand weakening by the most since the 2009 financial crisis.
Then we have large/medium sized banks reporting a crash in stronger demand for C&I loans.
I wish Biden would spend more time trying to negotiate with McCarthy to end the debt crisis rather than stir up race hatred like he did at Howard University graduation. C’mon Joe! White “supremacy” is not the most dangerous terrorist threat. I would actually say that Biden, Yellen and Schumer (throw in Pelosi’s spending splurge as Speaker) are the biggest terrorist threat. They are the 4 horsemen of the US debt apocalypse.
Let’s see how Bidenflation (caused by staggering Federal misspending) and years of Yellen’s TLTL (too low too long) monetary policy has caused a massive dislocation in the housing market.
The February Case-Shiller National home price index less core inflation (CPI less food and energy) year-over-year is declining by -3.5%. This is happening as REAL average weekly earnings growth is at -1.06% YoY and has been negative growth for 25 straigth months.
Look at The Fed’s massive overreaction to the unnecessary government shutdowns of economies and schools. It really sent home price growth soaring, then when The Fed starts slowing the monetary stimulus, we get the largest slowdown of REAL home price growth since 2012.
The 4 Horsemen of the US Debt Apocalypse. I would add Mitch McConnell and Fed Chair Powell, but then would have an entire Cavalry company like George Armstrong Custer had at Little Big Horn.
And the sad headline of the day (other than pure chaos on the Mexican border) is that NO RENT IS BEING PAID ON 20% OF ALL US OFFICE SPACE! And small banks hold 70% of commercial real estate loans!
Things are so bad, in fact, that 26 Empire State Buildings could fit into New York City’s empty office space, as occupancy in the city is hovering around 50% of prepandemic levels,
As The Fed momentarily pauses rate hikes, office vacancy rate just hit an all-time high. Another Biden first!! And the NCREIF office property index falling as The Fed tightens.
Treasury Secretary Janet “The Evil Hobbit” Yellen is a Statist. She can only think of an all powerful central government calling the shots since the private sector and individual liberties are something to be eliminated.
Yellen has mostly declined to spell out what her department would do if Congress fails to raise or suspend the debt limit before the Treasury finds itself unable to cover all the government’s obligations.
Back in Mordor on The Potomac, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy postponed a meeting on the debt ceiling set for Friday. People familiar with the talks said the postponement was a sign that staff-level talks were yielding progress.
Biden and congressional Republicans have been locked in disagreement for weeks over raising the US federal government’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. GOP leaders have demanded promises of future spending cuts before they approve a higher ceiling. Biden has jinsisted on a “clean” increase, with budget talks kept separate.
Now what no one in our lame pro-government media or Congress or Administration has said is the a US debt default does NOT necessarily mean that the US walks away from its debt. Very likely, China and Japan, our two biggest foreign debt holders, will insist on debt restructuring so that the US pays some fraction of debt owed, like 80%.
But foreign debt holders are a relatively small percentage of US debt holders. The Federal Reserve is the largest single borrower, thanks in part to Yellen who has formally Federal Reserve Chair,
Of course, financial entities like Vanguard, Blackrock and Fidelity are the largest holders of US debt. Since pensions invest heavily with these enetitites, the Federal government would restructure the debt rather than outright default.
US CDS 1Y continues to remain high as Biden/Yellen/Schumer play chicken with the lives of the American middle class while the political donor class is clamoring for endless spending and wealth transfers.
Remember, Biden, Yellen and Schumer all Statists and believe that their job is growing Federal government to wear it is all powerful and their donors get billions in subsidies and wealth transfers. You don’t think green energy subsidies make any common sense, do you? Wind turbines (aka, whale and eagle killing machines) are ineffective. We need nuclear power but Progressives fear nuclear power as much as they have Donald Trump.
Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is down slighty to 6.89%, but that masks the reality that mortgage rates were only 2.88% when Biden was sworn in as President. That is a staggering increase of 140 in the 30-year mortgage rate.
In fairness to Unaffordable Joe, Congress went on a crazy spending spree with Covid, much of which had nothing to do with Covid. Green energy spending for the donor class is helping drive core inflation up 291% since Biden was installed as President.
And yes, The Fed is playing catch up for former Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s “Too low for too long (TLTL) monetary policy. So, now she is creating mayhem as US Treasury Secretary. And she was a terrible Fed Chair, now a terrible Treasury Secretary.
And yes, The Fed looks like they are pausing rate hikes.
Biden’s approval ratings are terrible. Okay, Biden is the worst President in history, weak, can’t speak coherently and is letting chaos reign on the southern border. But from a consumer standpoint, he and crazy spending Congress have helped make America simply unaffordable for miillions.
Once again, Biden’s obsession with foolish green energy, Congress using Covid to spend trillions, then the green energy subsidy Act (aka, Inflation Reduction Act) where Biden and Congress agreed to make massive payoffs to big donors (the donor class). All this resulted in 40 year highs in inflation leading The Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
For autos, the interest rate on an auto purchase has soared to it highest level since 2008. And car prices at up 19% under Biden’s Reign of Error.
And when we consider that US Real Average Weekly Earnings growth continues to be negative under Unaffordable Joe.
Housing? At least home price growth is slowing and even negative in some cities. But housing is still unaffordable for millions of Americans.
The housing situation will only get worse as Title 42 expires and millions of illegal immigrants invade the US. Texas Governor Abbot should ship all of them to Wilmington Delaware, home of Unaffordable Joe Biden. Let him suffer for once from his own folly.
Food? Don’t get me started. The Commodity Research Bureau is up 44% under Unaffordable Joe.
Okay, Biden is a useful idiot for BIG banks, BIG Pharma, BIG tech, BIG defense, and BIG government. He is popular with the 1% and people who watch “The View.” But many of the 99% are suffering under Unafforable Joe.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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