This is life under Joe Biden. Record sovereign risk, record high debt, near 40-year highs in inflation, a hot war in Ukraine with Russia, failure of DOJ/FBI to do anything about the content of Hunter Biden’s laptop, repression of free speech, soaring crime, out of control borders. Should I keep going? It is a disastrous mess created by Obama/Biden and their creepy allies.
US sovereign risk just hit 130, the highest since CDS was recorded. This alligns with Biden/Congress massive borrow and spend policies where Federal debt has soared to it highest level in history. Inflation, while cooling, remains high.
On the housing front, REAL national home price growth is negative which makes sense since REAL average hourly wage growth has been negative for the last 24 months.
And just over the past year, commericial bank deposits are falling like a paralyzed falcon.
Biden and Obama’s chief hack in the White House, Susan Rice, are burning down the house.
Former Federal Reserve Chair and current Treaury Secretary Janet “The Evil Hobbit” Yellen has created numerous catestrophic messes thanks to Fed policy errors, both at The Fed and now as Treasury Secretary.
For example, the massive almost hysterical overreaction of The Fed under Powell (following Yellen’s Reign of Error) to the Covid economic shutdowns resulted in a massive surge in M2 Money growth [green line].
The result? REAL US housing prices soared while REAL averge hourly wage growth was negative for 24 straight months. THAT is the Fed error induced housing policy blunder. But it did increase the US homeownership rate (blue line).
Under the new rules, high-credit buyers with scores ranging from 680 to above 780 will see a spike in their mortgage costs – with applicants who place 15% to 20% down payment experiencing the biggest increase in fees.
“This was a blatant and significant cut of fees for their highest-risk borrowers and a clear increase in much better credit quality buyers – which just clarified to the world that this move was a pretty significant cross-subsidy pricing change,” added Stevens, who is also the former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Jeder nach seinen Fähigkeiten, jedem nach seinen Bedürfnissen (German for “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” – Karl Marx.
According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell -2.4% in March from February. And fell -21.97% since the same time last year (YoY).
And the median price of existing home sales fell -0.9% in March, the first negative growth since 2012.
It’s only mid April and mortgage demand should be approaching it’s yearly high. But under Biden and The Fed, mortgage demand seems to have peaked earlier than normal. It’s already late in mortgage cycle.
Mortgage applications decreased 8.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 14, 2023.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 36 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
America’s mega bank, The Federal Reserve, is slowing M2 Money growth so rapidly that it looks like it is depthcharging the US economy.
Inflation in the US has been booming since 1) Biden attacked fossil fuels, 2) The Fed’s overresponse to Covid (+27.48% YoY on February 22, 2021 near the beginning of Biden’s Reign of Error). and 3) out of control Federal spending under Biden, Pelosi and Schumer.
Fed Funds Futures point to two more Fed rate hikes before The Fed drop rates like a depthcharge. This depthcharge will help create a rekindling of asset bubbles.
The Taylor Rule suggets a Fed Funds Target rate of 11.77 while the current target rate is only 5%. This is called “leading from behind.”
Here is The Fed monitoring the US economy in order to decide on firing more financial torpedos!
US housing starts have declined in March by -17.2% since the same time last year (YoY) as The Fed rapidly removes Covid-related monetary stimulus (green line).
On the positive side, 1-unit detached housing actually rose by 2.74% from February to March (MoM). However, 5+ unit (multifamily) starts decline -6.71% MoM. Permits are similar: 1-unit permits were up 4.07% in March from February while 5+ unit permits were down -24.27%.
Housing starts out west were down -28.13% MoM as people are escaping “Gruesome Newsom Land” (aka, California). Starts are up by 6.8% MoM in The South.
“Hey Aunt Nancy, do you think American voters will vote for me for President after I helped destroy California? Can I be President and spend like a mad man like you did as Speaker of the House??”
Here is a chart of US office vacancies nationally (yellow), New York (white), San Franciso (green) and Los Angeles (orange). Note the rapid decline in office vacancies just prior to the financial crisis (often mislabeled as the subprime mortgage crisis). Then look at office vacancies after The Fed’s massive monetary experiment of setting rates to near zero and buying a ton of Treasuries, Agency MBS. etc. While San Francisco returned to pre-financial crisis levels of office vacancy, in general the office market never fully recovered.
And then “the slammer” struck: the COVID economic shutdowns. After 2020 shutdowns, office vacancy rates rose dramatically. Two complicating factors: 1) the US moved to working at home rather than commuting to an office and largely remains that way. 2) crime is going bonkers in American cities, particularly New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco (don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about other gang nests like Chicago and Detroit). I saw that California’s woke governor Gavin “Nancy Pelosi’s nephew” Newsom said the word “gang” then apologized and replaced it with “organized groups.” No wonder Newsom can’t fix anything, but he is running for President of the US! (insert Edvard Munch’s “The Scream” painting here,)
The Fed responded to the financial crisis by lower rates to 25 basis points and printing a boat load of money. Unfortunately, office vacancies rose to a peak in October 2010 then began falling again. Only to start rising again after Trump took office in 2017. Alas, Covid struck in 2020, The Fed and Federal government panicked. States and local governments (not to mention teacher’s unions) shut down economies and schools. Office vacancies are now higher than at peak of the Covid shutdowns!!!
Of course, what is really troubling is that credit card useage is soaring as The Fed hikes interest rates to combat inflation … caused by Janet Yellen and The Fed keeping rates near zero for too long under Obama. Then we have Biden fighting fossil fuels and Congress spending like drunken sailors in port. All together? Consumers turn to credit cards to cope and their personal savings are dwindling.
How to protect yourself against out-of-control Fed money printing? Gold is up over $2,000.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.