Livin’ In Biden’s Paradise! Percentage Of NYSE Stocks Closing Above 200 Day Moving Average Collapses To 13.48% (Bollinger Band, Fibonacci, Elliott Wave, Ichimoku)

My 401k is Livin’ in Biden’s Paradise.

The percentage of NYSE stocks closing above the 200 day moving average has collapsed to 13.48% as The Fed tightens to fight Bidenflation.

Bollinger Bands? The lower band is near breaking.

Fibonacci retracement? NOT retracing.

Elliott Wave? I feel like I am at the bottom at Nazare, Portugal.

Ichimoku cloud? The NYA index is so far below the cloud it has landed.

Yes, I feel like my 401k is surfing at Nazare, Portugal.

Wasting Away In Bidenville! Dow Tanks -500 Points On Friday As Fed Reaffirms Their Fight On Bidenflation

My investments are wasting away in Bidenville! Looking for my lost 401k value.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was DOWN -500 points on Friday as The Federal Reserve continues their fight against inflation (green line).

If fact, since January 4, 2022, the Dow is down -22%.

Negative wage growth, relentless inflation, collapsing 401ks, we are wasting away in Bidenville.

Hey Joe! Where is the US economy? With Jackie Walorski??

Sink The Bismarck! German 10yr REAL Yield Plunges To -7.89% (US REAL 10yr Yield At -4.43%)

Sink The Bismarck! Or at least sink the German economy.

Between going green and the war in Ukraine, Germany is seeing economic distress (high inflation) and a -7.89% Real 10yr yield. At least the US is seeing “only” a -4.43% REAL 10yr Treasury yield.

Like the US, I wonder who in Germany studied game theory? That is, going green leaves nations vulnerable to foreign nations oil and natural gas supplies. Like Russian natural gas.

The Nash equilibrium is a decision-making theorem within game theory that states a player can achieve the desired outcome by not deviating from their initial strategy. In the Nash equilibrium, each player’s strategy is optimal when considering the decisions of other players.

Unfortunately, the US and Germany have deviated from the initial strategy are are paying dearly with skyrocketing energy prices. Particularly as we enter the winter season.

So, who blew up the Nordstream natural gas pipeline going from Russia to Germany?

I can take a guess.

Wipe Out! $32 TRILLION In Stock Value Wiped Out (US Core Deflator Rises To 4.9% Prompting Taylor Rule Fed Target Rate Of 9.65%, We Are Currently At 3.25%)

Wipe out!

$32 TRILLION of global stock value has been wiped out since December 2021.

Today’s core PCE deflator reading of 4.9% YoY shows that the inflation surge is not over. With a core PCE deflator of 4.9%, the Taylor Rule suggests that The Fed Funds Target Rate should be at 9.65%, far below its current level of 3.25%. So, IFF The Fed is following any sort of rule, rates should continue to soar.

And if we use headline inflation of 8.30% YoY, the Taylor Rule suggests hiking the target rate to 14.75%.

After yesterday’s dismal Q2 report of -0.6%, I fully anticipate a recession. Ain’t this a kick in the … head.

Fire! European Stock Valuations Lowest Since 2012 On Strong King Dollar, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Drops To 0.271% (Bostic Calls For 1.25 MORE Rate Increase)

Fire! European stock valuations have dropped to lowest since 2012.

The US Dollar index is soaring (not helping Europe) as The Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to combat the inflation fire.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real-time forecast for Q3 is at least above zero (barely) at 0.271%.

Fed officials continued to hammer home the central bank’s hawkish outlook, with Atlanta President Raphael Bostic saying he backs raising rates by a further 1.25 percentage points by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China said it will accelerate usage of targeted loans.

Bond volatility is increasing.

The US Treasury 10-year yield was down -20 basis points yesterday and is up +10 basis points today. This is the Fed’s Rollercoaster effect.

The Dow is down another 400 points today as The Fed’s Sugar Rush is ending. Perhaps The Federal Reserve main building in Washington DC should be renamed “The Sugar Shack.”

In related news, apparently the Biden Administration is going to replace Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen with … anybody else??

Meanwhile I will have a bottle of wine to kill the pain of inflation and Fed tightening.

Flight To Safety! US 10yr Treasury Yield FALLS -12.2 BPS, UK 10yr Yield FALLS -46.6% BPS (UK Natural Gas Futures UP 16.37%)

It is going to be a bad day in markets. As I often mentioned in my classes, any 10 basis point shift in Treasury yields is a big deal.

On the bond side, the US Treasury 10-yr yield fell -12.2 basis points as investors run for cover. The UK 10 yr yield fell -46.6 basis points.

On the commodity side, we see WTI crude up 1.12%, heating oil up 1.92% and … UK Natural Gas Futures up 16.37%.

The natural gas leak in the Baltic Sea might have something to do with global jitters.

Here is a map of the gas leak.

I will have to turn on “The View” to find out who sabotaged the natural gas pipeline. /sarc

No, I don’t think Biden yelling at gasoline companies to lower prices has anything to do with market turmoil today. Its just another day under Joe Biden.

Mortgage Applications Shrink To Lowest Level In 25 Years As Mortgage Rates Cross The 7% Rubicon (Refi Apps DOWN 84% YoY, Purchase Apps DOWN 29% YoY)

Alea iacta est (the dice is cast).

Mortgage applications have fallen to the lowest level in 25 years, in part due to The Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy in an attempt to combat inflation.

Mortgage Net Daily is showing that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are 7.08%.

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 23, 2022.

The Refinance Index decreased 11 percent from the previous week and was 84 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 29 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Why Is Everything I Consume Going Up By >10% When The Inflation Rate Is “Only” 6.3% YoY? (Under Biden, Gasoline Is UP 55%, Foodstuffs UP 47%, Electricity UP 957%, Rents UP 12.5% YoY)

According to the BLS, US core inflation is 6.3% and headline inflation is 8.3% YoY. But everything I consume seems to be going up at a much faster rate?

Under Biden, regular gasoline price is UP 55%, CRB Foodstuffs UP 47%, rents UP 12.5% YoY and electricity is UP 957%.

And as The Fed continues to signal monetary tightening, the spread between 30Y FNCL Par Coupon and the 10-year Treasury yield keeps growing.

In case you watched the Buffalo Bills play the Miami Dolphins yesterday, you may remember this punt by the Dolphins. It almost perfectly represents what The Federal Reserve and Biden Administration are doing to the American middle class and low-wage workers.

More On Worst Bond Bubble Burst Since 1949! US Yield Curve Inverts To Lowest Since 2000 (US Mortgage Rate Climbs To 6.59%, UP 129% Under Biden)

And I thought the Washington Commanders QB Carson Wentz getting sacked nine times in a game against his former team was bad!

We start the week with another chapter of “The Worst Bond Bubble Burst Since 1949.” This time its the US Treasury 10yr-2yr yield curve inverted to its lowest level since 2000.

Then across the pond, the UK sovereign yield curve is also inverted. But this curve is only inverted to 2008 levels of The Great Recession. The UK 2-year sovereign yield is up over 50 basis points this morning.

Then we have the US Dollar Swaps curve (green line), steeply UPWARD sloping until 6 months, then declining. The same goes for the US Treasury Actives curve (blue line), except that is it steeply upward sloping out to 1 year then begins declining.

And then we have the Bankrate 30-year mortgage rate rising to 6.59%, up 129% since Biden was sworn-in as President.

Also declining since Powell unleashed his monetary Panzers on the economy and financial markets are 1) agency MBS and 2) S&P 500 index.

The stock market’s value is down $7.6 trillion since Biden took office.

When I saw Carson Wentz of the Washington Commanders getting sacked 9 times, I thought maybe Prince Harry was playing instead. Or maybe Meghan Markle.

Price Harry is on the left, Commanders QB Carson Wentz is on the right.

The Great Bond Bubble Is ‘Poof, Gone’ In Worst Year Since 1949, MBS Bursting Too (At Least The REAL Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Is Negative, -2.975%)

Pension funds hold large positions in US Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS). As does America’s central bank, The Federal Reserve. All are suffering losses as The Fed fights inflation.

(Bloomberg) — Week by week, the bond-market crash just keeps getting worse and there’s no clear end in sight.

With central banks worldwide aggressively ratcheting up interest rates in the face of stubbornly high inflation, prices (created by The Fed, Biden’s Green Energy Follicies and reckless Federal spending) are tumbling as traders race to catch up. And with that has come a grim parade of superlatives on how bad it has become.

On Friday, the UK’s five-year bonds tumbled by the most since at least 1992 after the government rolled out a massive tax-cut plan that may only strengthen the Bank of England’s hand. Two-year US Treasuries are in the middle of the the longest losing streak since at least 1976, dropping for 12 straight days. Worldwide, Bank of America Corp. strategists said government bond markets are on course for the worst year since 1949, when Europe was rebuilding from the ruins of World War Two.

The escalating losses reflect how far the Federal Reserve and other central banks have shifted away from the monetary policies of the pandemic, when they held rates near zero to keep their economies going. The reversal has exerted a major drag on everything from stock prices to oil as investors brace for an economic slowdown.

And as The Fed tries to combat stubborn inflation (caused by The Fed, Biden’s Green Energy folly and reckless Federal spending), you can see the US government security liquidity is worsening.

At least inflation has produced one “positive.” REAL mortgage rates are NEGATIVE since Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate less headline inflation is currently -2.975%.

Then we have Agency MBS (example, FNCL 3% MBS) plunging like a paralyzed falcon as duration risk increases with Fed rate tightening.

Fed Funds Futures data points to tightening until May ’23, then a reversal of rate hikes.